PING AN OF CHINA(PNGAY)
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中国平安:Expect $3.5bn CB dilutive effect to be short-term


Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-07-17 06:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Ping An with a target price of HK$52.00, implying a potential upside of 52.5% from the current price of HK$34.10 [5][4]. Core Insights - The issuance of US$3.5 billion convertible bonds is expected to have a limited dilutive impact of approximately 3.43% on existing shares, with the initial conversion price set at HK$43.71, representing a premium of 21.2% over the closing price on July 15, 2024 [4][20]. - The potential use of proceeds from the convertible bonds is aimed at boosting the core solvency ratio of Ping An Life, which is projected to rise by 6.4 percentage points to 125.2% in 1Q24, assuming all proceeds are injected into the business [4][29]. - The stock is currently trading at FY24E 0.48x P/EV and 0.70x P/B, with an expected dividend yield of 8.0% and FY24E ROE at 13.2% [4][17]. Financial Summary - For FY24E, the net profit is estimated at RMB 154.021 billion, with an EPS of RMB 7.18, reflecting a growth trajectory from previous years [17][24]. - The core solvency ratio for Ping An Life was reported at 118.8% in 1Q24, which is above the industry average of 113.5% [4][29]. - The comprehensive solvency ratio for Ping An P&C is projected to be 199.1% in 1Q24, indicating strong financial health [9][4]. Share Capital and Structure - Following the full conversion of the bonds, the total number of H-shares will increase to approximately 8.07 billion, accounting for 42.9% of the enlarged share capital [4][20]. - The report also notes the cancellation of 102.6 million A-shares, which will partially offset the dilutive effect of the convertible bonds and increase the H-share proportion to 43.1% [4][20]. Valuation Metrics - The report highlights a projected dividend yield of 8.0% for FY24E, with a consistent increase in dividend payouts expected over the next few years [17][35]. - The P/B ratio is expected to decrease to 0.63x by FY25E, indicating a potential undervaluation of the stock [40][17].
中国平安:预计 35 亿美元的 CB 稀释效应将是短期的


Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-07-17 06:22
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK$52.00, implying a 52.5% upside from the current price of HK$34.10 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company announced the issuance of US$3.5 billion in convertible bonds (CB) with a conversion premium of 21.2%, which is expected to have a limited dilution effect of approximately 3.43% on existing shares [5][12][23]. - The financing is anticipated to support the core subsidiary, Ping An Life, with a relatively low cost of capital, enhancing its solvency ratios [5][15]. - The estimated core solvency ratio for Ping An Life is projected to increase by 6.4 percentage points to 125.2% following the capital injection from the CB issuance [5][26]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected net profit for FY24E is estimated at RMB 154.021 billion, with an EPS of RMB 7.18 [5][46]. - The dividend per share (DPS) is expected to be HK$2.53 for FY24E, reflecting a dividend yield of 8.0% [5][46]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 13.2% for FY24E, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][46]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 0.48x for FY24E and a price-to-embedded value (P/EV) of 1.0x [2][46]. - The estimated net asset return rate is 13.2% for FY24E, which is favorable compared to industry averages [5][46]. Market Performance - The stock has experienced a decline of 5.41% following the CB announcement, but this is viewed as a short-term fluctuation [2][6]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HK$620.961 billion, with a 52-week high of HK$56.25 and a low of HK$29.80 [9].
中国平安:1H24中报前发行35亿美元可转债


HTSC· 2024-07-17 01:02
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 69.00 for 2318 HK and RMB 70.00 for 601318 CH [2][5]. Core Views - The company plans to issue USD 3.5 billion in H-share convertible bonds, which is approximately 2.0% of its net assets as of Q1 2024. This financing is aimed at business development, capital replenishment, and supporting healthcare and elderly care services [5][6]. - The issuance of convertible bonds is seen as a low-cost financing strategy during a period of stock price weakness, which will enhance capital reserves [5][6]. - The report anticipates a 4.2% year-on-year growth in net profit for 1H24, with operating profit expected to grow by 1.5% [6]. - The estimated new business value (NBV) for the life insurance segment is projected to grow by 7% year-on-year for 1H24, while the property insurance segment is expected to have a combined cost ratio of 99.3% [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Data - The closing price as of July 16 was HKD 34.10 for 2318 HK and RMB 41.19 for 601318 CH. The market capitalization is approximately HKD 620.97 billion and RMB 750.08 billion respectively [5]. - The average daily trading volume over the past six months is HKD 1.68 billion for 2318 HK and RMB 2.32 billion for 601318 CH [5]. Earnings Forecast - The projected gross premium income for 2024 is RMB 574.11 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.02% [5]. - Total investment income is expected to reach RMB 115.16 billion in 2024, reflecting a significant increase of 245.59% compared to the previous year [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at RMB 7.03, with a dividend per share (DPS) of RMB 2.44 [5]. Valuation - The report utilizes a three-stage DCF valuation method, with a target price based on the average of intrinsic value and book value methods, maintaining the target price at RMB 70 and HKD 69 [8]. - The estimated return on equity (ROE) for 2024 is projected at 13%, an improvement from 9.7% in 2023 [6][8].
中国平安:融资提升偿付能力,深化竞争优势


GF SECURITIES· 2024-07-17 01:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of the company [5]. Core Views - The company plans to issue convertible bonds worth $3.5 billion, maturing in 2029, with a coupon rate of 0.875%, which will only convert into H shares [3][4]. - The issuance of convertible bonds is expected to enhance the company's solvency ratio under the new solvency regulations, thereby reducing capital pressure for strategic development [3]. - The company aims to strengthen its competitive advantage in integrated financial services and healthcare, with a significant portion of new business value (NBV) coming from clients utilizing healthcare services [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at CNY 5.13, CNY 5.77, and CNY 6.35 respectively, with a reasonable valuation of CNY 56.5 per A share and HKD 52.6 per H share [3][5]. Financial Summary - The company reported a net profit of CNY 85.665 billion for 2023, with a projected increase to CNY 93.374 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 9% [4]. - The embedded value for 2024 is estimated at CNY 1,474.273 million, indicating a growth rate of 6.05% compared to 2023 [4]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 9.53% in 2023 to 10.02% in 2024 [4].
中国平安:H股可转债发行点评:摊薄影响有限,提升分红可消化负面影响


Soochow Securities· 2024-07-16 10:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Insurance (601318) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The issuance of H-share convertible bonds is expected to have a limited dilution impact, and the increased dividend capacity can offset negative effects [1][4] - The company plans to use the net proceeds from the convertible bond issuance to support its future financial core business development needs and to enhance its capital requirements [3][4] - The issuance is also aimed at supporting the company's new strategies in healthcare and elderly care [3] Financial Projections and Valuation - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is projected to be CNY 120.38 billion, CNY 154.12 billion, and CNY 162.21 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 40.5%, 28.0%, and 5.2% respectively [2][4] - The company's embedded value per share is expected to increase from CNY 76.34 in 2023 to CNY 83.19 in 2024 [2] - The P/EV ratio is projected to be 0.55 in 2024, indicating a favorable valuation [2] Convertible Bond Details - The convertible bond issuance is set at USD 3.5 billion, with a coupon rate of 0.875% and a maturity date of July 22, 2029 [3][9] - The conversion price is set at HKD 43.71, representing a premium of approximately 21.2% over the closing price on the announcement date [3][9] - If fully converted, the bonds would result in approximately 625 million new shares, accounting for about 8.39% of the existing H-share capital [4][9] Capital Adequacy Impact - The issuance is expected to enhance the comprehensive solvency ratio by 3.1 percentage points, increasing it from 208.03% to 211.1% [4][9] - The solvency ratios for various segments of the company remain stable and above regulatory requirements [4] Market Data - The closing price of Ping An Insurance is CNY 42.53, with a market capitalization of CNY 774.48 billion [6][7] - The price-to-book ratio is 0.86, indicating a potential undervaluation [6]
公司公告点评:中国平安拟发行境外可转债,有助于提升偿付能力水平


Haitong Securities· 2024-07-16 07:31
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][4]. Core Insights - The company plans to issue offshore convertible bonds to enhance its solvency levels, with the amount and terms yet to be determined. The funds raised will primarily support the company's future financial business development needs and new strategic initiatives in healthcare and elderly care [3][4]. - The issuance of offshore convertible bonds is seen as a more cost-effective and flexible option compared to domestic perpetual bonds, which have been issued by several insurance companies recently at varying interest rates [3][4]. - The company's solvency ratios are strong, with a comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio of 186% and a core solvency adequacy ratio of 114% as of Q1 2024, showing slight improvements from the beginning of the year [4][7]. - The valuation remains low, with a target price range of 53.03 to 57.11 CNY based on a projected PEV of 0.65-0.7 times for 2024, indicating potential upside [4][10]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 913,789 million CNY in 2023 to 1,073,969 million CNY by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.04% [5][10]. - Net profit is expected to recover from a decline of 22.83% in 2023 to a growth of 17.63% by 2026, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 4.70 CNY in 2023 to 6.68 CNY in 2026, demonstrating improving earnings potential [5][10]. - The company's embedded value (EV) is anticipated to rise from 76.34 CNY in 2023 to 93.73 CNY in 2026, reflecting growth in the company's intrinsic value [5][10]. Valuation Metrics - As of July 15, 2024, the company's stock price corresponds to a projected PEV of 0.52 times for 2024, suggesting that the stock is undervalued compared to its peers [4][9]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable dividend return, enhancing its investment appeal [4][10].
中国平安:中国平安关于拟注销已回购A股股份的提示性公告


2024-07-16 04:06
证券代码:601318 证券简称:中国平安 编号:临 2024-039 中国平安保险(集团)股份有限公司 2024 年 7 月 16 日 根据本公司于 2021 年 8 月 26 日召开的第十二届董事会第四次会议审议通过 的《关于审议回购公司股份的议案》(以下简称"本次回购"),本公司已于 2021 年 8 月 27 日至 2022 年 8 月 26 日通过上海证券交易所交易系统以集中竞价交易 方式累计回购本公司 A 股股份 102,592,612 股,占本公司总股本的比例为 0.56338%。本次回购股份原计划全部用于本公司员工持股计划,包括但不限于本 公司股东大会已审议通过的长期服务计划。 基于对本公司未来发展的信心,为维护广大投资者利益,本公司拟根据《中 华人民共和国公司法》《上市公司股份回购规则》《上海证券交易所上市公司自律 监管指引第 7 号——回购股份》及《中国平安保险(集团)股份有限公司章程》 的有关规定,变更本次回购股份的用途,拟注销存放于公司回购专用证券账户的 102,592,612 股 A 股股份(以下简称"本次注销")。本次注销如获完成,公司注 册资本及股本总数将相应核减。本次注销尚需经 ...
中国平安建议发行美元可转债点评:融资缓解资本压力,利好推进集团战略


Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-07-16 01:01
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Insurance (601318) is "Buy" [4] - The target price is set at 58.98 CNY per share, with the current price at 42.53 CNY [4] Core Insights - The company proposes to issue US dollar convertible bonds primarily to supplement its capital and support its strategic initiatives, particularly in enhancing its "comprehensive finance + healthcare and elderly care" service system [5][8] - The issuance of convertible bonds is expected to alleviate capital pressure and facilitate the sustainable growth of core indicators [8] - The company maintains its "Buy" rating and target price, projecting earnings per share (EPS) of 6.17, 7.57, and 8.77 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [8][9] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 880,355 million CNY, with a projected increase to 941,703 million CNY in 2024 [9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022 was 111,008 million CNY, expected to rise to 112,437 million CNY in 2024 [9] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 10% in 2023 to 15% by 2026 [9] Capital Structure - As of the end of Q1 2024, the core solvency ratio for life insurance was 118.8%, and for property insurance, it was 173.8%, indicating a need for capital replenishment [8] - The total market capitalization is reported at 774,481 million CNY, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.9 [5][6]
中国平安:中国平安拟根据一般性授权发行H股可转换债券的公告


2024-07-16 00:25
中国平安保险(集团)股份有限公司(以下简称"本公司")董事会及全体董事保 证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真 实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示: 证券代码:601318 证券简称:中国平安 公告编号:临 2024-038 中国平安保险(集团)股份有限公司 拟根据一般性授权发行 H 股可转换债券的公告 经办人已开展入标定价,关于债券的条款(包括但不限于本金金额和初始转 换价)已在入标定价后确定。 发行人拟发行的债券本金总额为 35 亿美元,可于条款及条件所载情形下转 换为 H 股。初始转换价为每股 H 股 43.71 港元(可予调整)。 假设债券按每股 H 股 43.71 港元的初始转换价全部转换且不再发行其他股 份,则债券将可转换为约 625,203,614 股转换股份,约占本公司于本公告日现有 已发行 H 股数目的 8.39%及现有已发行股本总数的 3.43%,以及约占本公司于债 券获全部转换后经发行转换股份后已发行 H 股数目的 7.74%及已发行股本总数 的 3.32%。转换股份将全部缴足,并在各方面与本公司在相关登记日已发行 H 股 享有同等地位。 ...
中国平安:中国平安关于建议发行美元计值H股可转换债券的公告


2024-07-15 12:28
可转换债券的定价(包括发行价及初始转换价)将由联席全球协调人、联席 账簿管理人及联席牵头经办人以入标定价方式确定。可转换债券的条款确定后, 本公司与联席牵头经办人将就可转换债券订立认购协议。截至本公告发布时,可 转换债券发行的金额、条款和条件尚未确定。 二、募集资金的用途 本公司拟将可转换债券发行所得款项净额用于满足本集团未来以金融为核 心的业务发展需求,用于补充本集团的资本需求;支持本集团医疗、养老新战略 发展的业务需求;同时用作一般公司用途。 证券代码:601318 证券简称:中国平安 公告编号:临 2024-037 中国平安保险(集团)股份有限公司 关于建议发行美元计值 H 股可转换债券的公告 中国平安保险(集团)股份有限公司(以下简称"本公司")董事会及全体董事保 证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真 实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、建议发行可转换债券 本公司建议向专业投资者发售可转换债券,并根据美国证券法 S 规例仅在 美国境外发售。可转换债券将仅向香港联交所上市规则第 37 章及香港《证券及 期货条例》中定义的"专业投资者"发行,不会向香港公众人士发售,亦 ...