Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing's stock is experiencing a significant decline due to disappointing Q2 earnings and broader economic concerns affecting investor sentiment [1][2][5]. Financial Performance - Rigetti reported Q2 revenue of $1.8 million, which is a decrease of nearly 42% year-over-year [2]. - The company's net income fell nearly 220%, resulting in a loss of approximately $40 million for the quarter [2][3]. Market Valuation - Despite the poor financial performance, Rigetti's market capitalization remains close to $5 billion, indicating a substantial disconnect between its financials and market valuation [3]. Economic Context - Recent economic data, including a slowing job market and higher-than-expected inflation, is contributing to the decline of riskier stocks like Rigetti [5]. - Investors are increasingly cautious as macroeconomic conditions worsen, leading to a sell-off in high-risk investments [1][5]. Technological Outlook - Although Rigetti provided some positive updates regarding its operational and technological advancements, the industry may still be years or decades away from achieving viable quantum computing solutions [6].

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing's stock is experiencing significant sell-offs due to inflation concerns triggered by Home Depot's recent price increase announcement [1][2][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Rigetti Computing's stock price fell by 8.7% as of 2:45 p.m. ET, with a peak decline of 9.6% earlier in the day [1]. - The stock is trading at approximately 605 times this year's expected sales, indicating a highly growth-dependent valuation [6]. Group 2: Inflation Concerns - Home Depot's management announced price increases on certain items due to tariff-related costs, which investors interpret as a worrying inflation indicator [2][5]. - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a higher-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation rate of 0.9%, significantly above the forecast of 0.3% [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The recent inflation data and Home Depot's comments raise concerns about potential upward trends in inflation levels in the near term [7]. - The speculative nature of Rigetti's outlook, combined with its growth-dependent valuation, makes it a risky investment at this time [6][7].

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is facing short-term revenue challenges with a second-quarter 2025 revenue of $1.8 million, down from $3.1 million the previous year, and a gross margin decrease to 31% from 64% due to lower-margin government contracts [1][8] - The company raised $350 million through an equity offering, ending the quarter with $571.6 million in cash and no debt, providing financial flexibility for ongoing investments in research and development [1][10] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q2 2025 was $1.8 million, a decline from $3.1 million, with gross margin narrowing to 31% [8] - In 2025, Rigetti is expected to experience a 19.7% decline in revenues, while earnings per share are projected to improve by 86.1% year over year, although still remaining negative [11] Innovation and Technology - Rigetti introduced the Cepheus-1-36Q, the largest multichip quantum computer to date, achieving a two-fold reduction in error rates compared to its predecessor, with a median two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.5% [2][9] - The company aims to deliver a 100-plus qubit chiplet-based system by year-end, focusing on scaling toward quantum advantage [2][9] Competitive Landscape - Rigetti's strategy in superconducting qubits differentiates it from peers like Arqit Quantum, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc., which are pursuing alternative paths [3] - The company's progress in chiplet technology is expected to improve manufacturing yields and reduce complexity, paving the way for larger, more reliable quantum systems [9] Market Position and Stock Performance - RGTI shares have gained 9.1% year-to-date, outperforming some competitors, while the broader Zacks Internet - Software Industry has advanced 22.9% [4] - Despite the positive stock performance, Rigetti's price-to-book (P/B) ratio stands at 8.74X, higher than the industry average of 7.08X, indicating potential overvaluation [15] Challenges and Future Outlook - Rigetti's financial performance is heavily dependent on government funding cycles, with recent revenue declines attributed to the expiration of the U.S. National Quantum Initiative [14] - To sustain long-term growth, the company needs to broaden its revenue base beyond government contracts and convert technological advancements into recurring commercial opportunities [14]

Group 1: AST SpaceMobile - AST SpaceMobile is developing satellites that connect directly to unmodified smartphones, potentially disrupting the market dominated by SpaceX's Starlink [4] - The company projects revenue between $50 million to $75 million for the second half of 2025, with six satellites currently in orbit and plans for 45 to 60 by 2026 [5] - Wall Street maintains a "buy" consensus with a $49 average 12-month target, highlighting that AST's model partners with carriers rather than competing against them [6] - Despite significant risks such as capital requirements and regulatory hurdles, AST offers a direct play on connecting 2.5 billion unconnected people globally [7] - AST's stock has increased by 135% year to date, indicating strong market interest [5] Group 2: Rigetti Computing - Rigetti Computing focuses on quantum computing, aiming to solve complex problems that classical computers cannot address [9] - The company recently announced a significant technical milestone with the industry's largest demonstrated multichip quantum system, although second-quarter revenue fell 42% year over year to $1.8 million [10] - Rigetti faces challenges such as cash burn and competition from larger companies like IBM and Alphabet, but this creates an opportunity for investors willing to bet on long-term growth [11] - The potential for quantum computing to mature could lead to significant upside, with Rigetti's stock in the mid-teens seen as a bargain if the technology delivers [13] Group 3: Investment Considerations - Both AST and Rigetti are considered high-risk, high-reward investments that could reshape industries [12] - AST offers nearer-term catalysts with satellite deployments and revenue ramp-up, while Rigetti requires patience for potential long-term payoff [13] - Position sizing is crucial, as these companies represent portfolio accelerators rather than core holdings, appealing to investors willing to embrace risk [14]

Group 1: Quantum Computing - The quantum computing industry is steadily developing, with the first batch of quantum computing companies releasing financial reports and expanding commercial applications. However, personal quantum computers are still far from realization [4][41]. - Google's Willow chip features 105 physical qubits and can complete a task in 5 minutes that would take the fastest supercomputer over 10²⁵ years, significantly reducing error rates [4][42]. - Key breakthroughs include surpassing the quantum error correction threshold, where increasing physical qubits leads to a decrease in logical qubit error rates, although true fault-tolerant qubits are still a distance away [4][43]. Group 2: Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot industry is gaining momentum, with predictions that the market will reach $7 trillion by 2050. 2025 is expected to be the year of mass production [7][8]. - Domestic companies like Yushutech and Zhiyuan Robotics are making strides, with significant product iterations and expected deliveries of 300 units in 2024 [8]. - The demand for humanoid robots is driven by advancements in AI, mature supply chains, and supportive policies, particularly in response to an aging population [8][9]. Group 3: AI as a Fundamental Discipline - AI is recognized as a new foundational discipline, with significant breakthroughs in physics and chemistry, as evidenced by Nobel Prizes awarded to AI scientists [10][11]. - AI is changing research paradigms, allowing for accelerated drug development processes that previously required large teams and extensive timeframes [12][13]. Group 4: Blockchain 3.0 - The blockchain industry is transitioning into its 3.0 phase, characterized by rational development and practical applications, moving beyond previous extremes of enthusiasm and skepticism [14]. - The Chinese blockchain market is projected to grow at an annual rate of 54.6%, reaching $43.1 billion by 2029 [14]. Group 5: Satellite Internet - The global competition in satellite internet is intensifying, with SpaceX's Starlink having launched over 7,000 satellites and serving over 4 million users [15]. - China is catching up in low-orbit satellite deployment, with plans to launch 1,500 satellites by 2030 [15][16]. Group 6: Autonomous Driving - By 2025, high-speed Navigation Assisted Driving (NOA) is expected to become standard, with urban NOA gradually becoming widespread [17][18]. - Companies like Baidu and Tesla are leading the charge, with significant advancements in autonomous driving technology and substantial order volumes [17]. Group 7: Professional Drones - The professional drone market is thriving, with China's drone market valued at 106.5 billion yuan in 2022, and the global military drone market projected to reach $16.4 billion by 2032 [19][20]. - The applications of drones span military and civilian uses, with industrial-grade drones making up 65.3% of the market in 2023 [20]. Group 8: Low-altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy, including drones and eVTOLs, is rapidly developing, with China's low-altitude economy expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2026 [22]. - The consumer-grade drone market is seeing widespread adoption, while industrial-grade applications are also expanding significantly [22]. Group 9: AI in Digital Health - AI is becoming an essential tool in healthcare, assisting in diagnostics and personalized medicine, while also serving as a high-level assistant to doctors [27][28]. Group 10: AI in Education - The education sector is undergoing significant changes, with AI amplifying the effects of top educators and shifting towards employment-oriented training [28]. Group 11: Chip Industry - The chip industry is increasingly focused on ecosystem development, with applications driving the ecosystem rather than just technology [31]. - The U.S. is implementing restrictions on high-end chips to China, prompting a push for domestic development in China [31]. Group 12: Digital Content Era - The micro-short video market is expected to surpass traditional film box office revenues, driven by rapid consumption and emotional engagement [30]. - The market for micro-short videos is projected to reach 50.44 billion yuan in 2024, with significant user engagement [30].

Industry Overview - The quantum computing industry is characterized by strong sales but significant losses, with profitability still a distant goal for companies like D-Wave Quantum, IonQ, and Rigetti Computing [1] - Cash reserves are crucial for funding future advancements in quantum technology, with companies focusing on scaling operations and pursuing strategic acquisitions [11] D-Wave Quantum - D-Wave Quantum reported a 42% year-over-year revenue increase, driven by sales of its Advantage2 quantum processing units and new contracts with major clients like GE Vernova and Nikon [2][4] - The company ended the quarter with a record cash position of $819.3 million, a 1,900% increase year-over-year, allowing for aggressive R&D and market expansion [4] - D-Wave is collaborating with NASA on advanced technology and aims to develop a 100,000-qubit system, reinforcing its leadership in annealing quantum computing [3][4] IonQ - IonQ exceeded revenue guidance by 15%, supported by significant partnerships, including a $22 million deal for a commercial quantum hub and advancements in drug development [5][6] - Despite a net loss of $177.5 million, IonQ's cash position improved to $1.6 billion following a $1 billion equity investment, providing a strong foundation for future growth [6] - The company is focused on integrating new technologies and scaling its operations to achieve 800 logical qubits by 2027 and 80,000 by 2030 [6] Rigetti Computing - Rigetti's revenues showed sequential growth but declined year-over-year due to the expiration of the U.S. National Quantum Initiative, leading to a narrower gross margin of 31% [7][10] - The company raised $350 million in equity, increasing its cash reserves to $571.6 million, which will support R&D and commercial operations [10] - Rigetti aims to leverage its superconducting qubit technology to achieve a 100-plus qubit system with high gate fidelity by the end of 2025, a critical step towards profitability [10]

Financial Results Summary - Archer Aviation, Inc. reported a Q2 loss of 36 cents per share, missing estimates of a 26 cents loss, but shares recovered after discussing plans for the 2028 Olympics [2] - BigBear.ai, Inc. experienced a significant drop in stock after missing EPS and revenue expectations and cutting its 2025 outlook due to disruptions in Army contracts [3] - Plug Power, Inc. saw a 21% year-over-year revenue increase but reported a wider-than-expected EPS loss, leading to a 5% rise in stock during after-hours trading [4] - Oklo, Inc. reported a net loss of about 18 cents per share amid higher operating expenses, but stock jumped over 9% after initial volatility due to DOE-related headlines [5] - AST SpaceMobile, Inc. reported Q2 revenue of approximately $1.2 million and a net loss of roughly $99 million, while maintaining expectations for a significant ramp in the second half of the year [5] - AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. beat Q2 revenue expectations, resulting in a pre-market stock surge of about 5% due to strong attendance and narrowed losses [7] - CAVA Group, Inc. disappointed investors with slower same-store sales growth and missed revenue estimates, causing stock to plunge over 20% [9] - Circle Internet Group, Inc. reported higher-than-expected net losses due to one-time IPO charges, leading to a 6% drop in shares and announcing a 10 million share offering [10] - CoreWeave, Inc. missed quarterly profit expectations and indicated significant expenses ahead, resulting in a stock decline of over 20% [11] - Rigetti Computing, Inc. missed analyst expectations on both revenue and earnings but saw its stock rise nearly 8% over the past five days [12]

Analyst's Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. I'm a retired Wall Street PM specializing in TMT; since kickstarting my career, I've spent over two de ...

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing, Inc. reported second-quarter results with losses of 13 cents per share, missing analyst expectations of 6 cents, and revenue of $1.8 million, below the consensus estimate of $1.88 million, and down from $3.086 million year-over-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Quarterly losses were reported at 13 cents per share, missing the analyst consensus estimate of 6 cents [1] - Revenue for the quarter was $1.8 million, which fell short of the analyst consensus estimate of $1.88 million and decreased from $3.086 million in the same period last year [1] Group 2: Analyst Outlook - Despite the financial miss, Wall Street analysts maintained a bullish outlook, citing progress on Rigetti's technology roadmap [2] - Analyst N. Quinn Bolton reiterated a Buy rating with a price forecast of $18, highlighting that Rigetti met its mid-year goal with a four-chiplet, 36-qubit QPU achieving 99.5% median two-qubit fidelity [3][4] - Analyst David Williams also reiterated a Buy rating, raising the price forecast to $20 from $14, noting that Rigetti is on track to deliver a 100-qubit, multi-chiplet QPU with 99.5% two-qubit gate fidelity by year-end [7][8] Group 3: Technological Advancements - Rigetti's four-chiplet, 36-qubit QPU reached a median two-qubit fidelity of 99.5%, strengthening management's confidence in delivering a >100-qubit system by year-end [4] - The company is positioned to benefit from advancements in quantum computing, with expectations to scale qubit count to the hundreds and improve fidelity to 99.9% by 2026 [6] - Rigetti's roadmap includes a target of a 1,000+-qubit system with 99.9% fidelity and built-in error correction, with a timeline of three to four years to reach that threshold [9][10] Group 4: Financial Position - Rigetti increased cash reserves by $350 million to approximately $570 million during the period, which is deemed sufficient for continued investment through commercialization [10] - The company’s long-term objective is to achieve a 1,000-qubit system targeting 99.9% fidelity, enabled by advancements in cabling, cryogenics, and chiplet density [10]

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing (RGTI) reported a second-quarter 2025 adjusted loss per share of 5 cents, an improvement from the 7 cents loss per share in the same quarter last year, and exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 16.7% [1][7] - The company's total revenues were $1.8 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 41.6% and missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.7% [4][7] - Rigetti launched its Cepheus-1-36Q, the largest multi-chip quantum computer, which features a median two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.5%, significantly improving upon its predecessor [6][9] Revenue and Financial Performance - The revenue decline was attributed to the expiration of the U.S. National Quantum Initiative and the pending reauthorization in Congress, with future growth dependent on the renewal of this initiative and sales to government entities [5] - Gross profit fell 71.6% year over year to $0.6 million, with gross margin contracting 3310 basis points to 31.4% due to revenue mix and pricing variability in development contracts [10] - Operating expenses increased, with selling, general and administrative expenses rising 11.6% to $6.9 million and research and development expenses increasing 13.9% to $13.5 million, leading to an operating loss of $19.9 million compared to $16.1 million in the prior-year quarter [11] Financial Position - At the end of the second quarter, Rigetti had cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaling $425.7 million, up from $209.1 million at the end of the first quarter, with no debts on its balance sheet [12] - Cumulative net cash used in operating activities was $29.8 million, compared to $26.7 million a year ago [12] Technology Developments - The Cepheus-1-36Q incorporates proprietary architecture that enhances chip uniformity and reduces manufacturing complexity, with plans for a 100+ qubit chiplet-based system by the end of 2025 [9][14] - The advancements in two-qubit gates and intermodule coupler design are expected to further improve performance [9]