Core Insights - Wedbush predicts a significant rise in technology stocks, with an expected increase of over 20% by 2026, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence [1][2] Group 1: AI and Technology Predictions - The second, third, and fourth derivative applications of artificial intelligence will take shape in software, chips, and infrastructure, contributing to the anticipated rise in tech stocks [2] - Apple and Google are set to formalize their AI partnership around the Gemini project, which is expected to bolster Apple's AI strategy and help achieve a market valuation of $5 trillion by 2026 [2][3] - Microsoft is projected to experience its best growth period by 2026, becoming the top-performing cloud software company as more enterprises accelerate their AI strategies using Azure [3][4] Group 2: Company-Specific Forecasts - Tesla is expected to successfully launch autonomous taxis in over 30 cities by 2026, with a base stock price target of $600 and an optimistic target of $800 [2] - Crowdstrike and Palo Alto Networks are highlighted as top picks in the cybersecurity sector, which is anticipated to see mergers and acquisitions [3] - Oracle is expected to reach a stock price target of $250 by 2026, despite current market pessimism [3] - Nvidia remains a leader in the AI chip sector, with an optimistic stock price target of $275 by 2026, as it expands its market in China [4] - Palantir Technologies is expected to become a key player in the AI revolution with its AI platform, aiming for a valuation of $1 trillion within the next 2 to 3 years [4] Group 3: Acquisition and Investment Opportunities - Nebius is identified as a potential acquisition target for a major data center by 2026, with Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon as possible buyers [2] - Quantum technology companies like IonQ and Rigetti Computing are seen as candidates for investment due to their national security implications [3]

Core Insights - Wedbush predicts that technology stocks will rise over 20% by 2026, driven by the ongoing AI revolution and significant investments required for its advancement [1][2] Group 1: AI and Technology Stocks - The second, third, and fourth derivative applications of the AI revolution will take shape in software, chips, and infrastructure, contributing to the projected rise in tech stocks [2] - Apple and Google are expected to announce a formal AI partnership around the Gemini project, which will solidify Apple's AI strategy and potentially help achieve a market cap of $5 trillion by 2026 [2][3] Group 2: Key Company Predictions - Tesla is anticipated to successfully launch autonomous taxis in over 30 cities by 2026, with a basic stock price expectation of $600 and an optimistic target of $800 [2] - Crowdstrike and Palo Alto Networks are highlighted as top cybersecurity companies, with the sector expected to perform well and see mergers and acquisitions [3] - Oracle is projected to reach a target price of $250 per share by 2026, despite current market pessimism [3] Group 3: Emerging Technologies - Nebius is identified as a potential acquisition target for major data center companies, with Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon as possible buyers [2] - Quantum technology companies IonQ and Rigetti Computing are noted for their potential national security significance and investment interest from the Trump administration [3] Group 4: Major Players in AI - Nvidia remains a leader in the global AI chip market, with an optimistic price target of $275 by 2026, as demand factors are believed to be underestimated [4] - Palantir Technologies is expected to expand its commercial AI success with its AI platform, aiming for a valuation of $1 trillion within the next 2 to 3 years [4]

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing (RGTI) has experienced significant stock price volatility, moving from $22 to $56 and then retracing to approximately $23, attributed to a broader risk-off sentiment in high-duration assets rather than any negative developments in the company's roadmap or financial health [1]. Group 1 - Rigetti's stock price increased significantly before experiencing a retracement, indicating potential market volatility and investor sentiment shifts [1]. - The company's financial roadmap and balance sheet remain intact despite the stock price fluctuations, suggesting underlying stability [1]. - The investment strategy focuses on identifying high-potential opportunities with significant upside potential, emphasizing the importance of risk management and long-term compounding [1].

Core Thesis - Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) is facing significant near-term downside due to forced selling pressure from multiple ETF rebalances occurring on December 19th, which includes a $30 million liquidation of RGTI shares from the Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM) [2][4] Company Fundamentals - RGTI has a market capitalization of $10 billion but generated less than $2 million in revenue last quarter while burning through $43.6 million in cash over nine months, primarily funded through retail share sales [4] - The company has not seen any insider purchases since June 2022, with recent insider sales occurring as recently as December 10th, and the CEO holding no shares, indicating a lack of confidence in the company's future [3][4] Market Dynamics - The convergence of ETF-driven selling, ongoing insider exits, and weak operational performance creates a high-risk environment for existing shareholders, suggesting a potential sharp market correction for RGTI [4][5] - The stock has experienced a run-up over the quarter despite negative earnings and an unreasonably high price relative to its fundamentals, making it particularly vulnerable to the upcoming selling pressure [3][4]

Core Insights - Quantum computing stocks have recently experienced a decline, with Rigetti Computing (RGTI) down approximately 6%, D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) down 7%, IonQ (IONQ) down 8%, and Quantum Computing (QUBT) down 9%, amid concerns over an AI bubble [1][6] - Analysts at Wedbush have initiated coverage on these stocks with "outperform" ratings, viewing quantum computing as a transformational technology with significant growth potential in the coming years [2][3] - By the end of the decade, quantum computing companies are expected to represent a larger share of total computing expenditure, despite currently being a small segment [3] Market Significance - Quantum computing stocks have benefited from the AI boom, with expectations that rising AI demand will increase computing needs [4] - Wedbush analysts have set a target price of $60 for IonQ, indicating nearly 30% upside, a $12 target for Quantum Computing suggesting a 16% gain, and $35 targets for Rigetti and D-Wave, implying they could add roughly half their value in the next 12 months [4] - Despite recent declines, D-Wave shares have nearly tripled in value this year, Rigetti has increased by close to 50%, and IonQ has added 10%, while Quantum Computing is down nearly 40% year-to-date [5]

Industry Overview - Quantum computing is transitioning from speculative research and development to commercial pathways, with significant market growth expected by 2025 and beyond [1][2] - The quantum computing market is projected to grow from approximately $3.52 billion in 2025 to $20.2 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41.8% [1] - By 2035, the combined market for quantum computing, communication, and sensing could reach around $97 billion under current scenarios [1] Federal Investment and Support - The U.S. Department of Energy announced $625 million in funding to renew five National Quantum Information Science Research Centers, supporting advancements in quantum technology [4] - This funding is part of the National Quantum Initiative framework, aimed at fostering collaboration among national labs, universities, and industry to accelerate innovation [4][5] Monetary Policy Impact - The U.S. Federal Reserve cut the target federal funds rate to 3.50%–3.75%, marking a shift towards a more neutral monetary policy, which is expected to support longer investment horizons in deep-tech development [6][7] - Easing financial conditions are anticipated to facilitate the transition of quantum hardware programs from R&D to early commercialization [7] Company-Specific Insights IonQ (IONQ) - IonQ achieved a significant milestone in October 2025 with two-qubit gate fidelities above 99.99%, enhancing its commercial viability [8][9] - The company is expected to see earnings growth of 66.2% in 2026, with revenue growth projected at 68.9% [10] - IonQ's average price target suggests a potential increase of 61.9% from its last closing price of $46.07 [10] Rigetti Computing (RGTI) - Rigetti plans to deploy a 150-qubit system by the end of 2026, following the delivery of a 100-qubit system in 2025, with a median two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.7% [13] - The company is expected to experience earnings growth of 75.9% in 2026, with revenue growth of 185.6% [14] - Rigetti's average price target indicates a potential increase of 65.8% from its last closing price of $23.53 [14] Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) - QUBT faces challenges with widening losses and minimal revenues, making it less attractive heading into 2026 [3][16] - The company is expected to report no earnings growth in 2026 and relies heavily on capital market activity for funding [17]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Rigetti Computing's stock price raises questions about whether it presents a buying opportunity or indicates a larger downturn for the company [1][2]. Company Performance - Rigetti's stock has seen a significant drop, finishing last week at less than $26, which is a 55% decline from its 52-week high of $58.15 [2]. - The company reported total sales of $7.5 million over the trailing 12 months, while operating expenses were just under $83 million during the same period, indicating a substantial loss [3]. Market Sentiment - Interest in Rigetti's stock has been waning, as evidenced by a decrease in trading volumes from over 100 million shares earlier in the year to often less than half of that level [6][8]. - Despite a 70% rise in stock price earlier this year, the speculative nature of Rigetti's business model and the associated risks have led to a cooling of investor excitement [5][6]. Industry Outlook - Quantum computing remains a promising but uncertain field, with questions about when it will become mainstream and whether Rigetti will be a leading player when that occurs [4]. - The market capitalization of Rigetti reached over $18 billion due to initial investor enthusiasm, but the recent pullback and declining trading volumes suggest a shift in market sentiment [7].

Industry Overview - The quantum computing industry is currently generating $1 billion in revenue, with projections indicating potential growth to $198 billion by 2040 according to Jefferies [1][2] - Mizuho Securities also predicts significant growth in the quantum computing sector, estimating the market could reach $205 billion by 2035, likening it to the early GPU era [4] Company Ratings - Jefferies has initiated coverage on three companies in the quantum industry: D-Wave Quantum (NYSE:QBTS) and IonQ (NYSE:IONQ) both rated as Buy, and Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI) rated as Hold [3] - The industry is supported by investments from governments and major tech companies, including Alphabet Inc. and IBM [3] Financial Performance - D-Wave Quantum reported Q3 results showing 100% revenue growth to $3.8 million, with a GAAP gross profit increase of 156% to $2.7 million and a gross margin of 71.4% [6] - IonQ reported Q4 revenue of $39.9 million, exceeding analyst estimates by 47.8%, and raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to $106–110 million, surpassing previous estimates [6] Stock Performance - Year-to-date, D-Wave Quantum's stock surged by 165.56%, while IonQ's stock increased by 15.24% [7]

Core Insights - The article discusses the valuation challenges faced by early-stage businesses, particularly in the quantum computing sector, highlighting the limitations of traditional metrics like P/E and PEG ratios for companies operating at a loss [1][2][3] Group 1: Valuation Metrics - The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is introduced as a more suitable metric for valuing early-stage companies that lack positive earnings per share (EPS) [1] - Traditional valuation methods like P/E and PEG ratios are effective for mature businesses but fall short for those in early commercialization stages [2] - Historical data indicates that P/S ratios above 30 are unsustainable over time, as seen during the dot-com bubble [7] Group 2: Quantum Computing Market - Quantum computing stocks have experienced significant price increases, with IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing Inc. seeing gains of 68%, 333%, 568%, and 89% respectively over the past year [5] - The potential economic value of quantum computing is estimated to reach up to $1 trillion by 2035, with varying forecasts suggesting $450 billion to $850 billion by 2040 [4][6] - Current P/S ratios for quantum computing companies are indicative of their early stage in the commercialization process, with IonQ at 156, Rigetti at 992, D-Wave at 315, and Quantum Computing Inc. at 3,144 [11] Group 3: Future Outlook - The article suggests that 2026 may pose significant challenges for quantum computing stocks, as high P/S ratios indicate a potential bubble [10] - Historical trends show that emerging technologies often require time to mature, and quantum computing may be following a similar trajectory [13][16] - While some quantum computing stocks may succeed in the long term, expecting continued rapid growth without mainstream commercialization is deemed unrealistic [18]

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is strategically positioning itself at the intersection of quantum hardware, AI supercomputing, and public-private research ecosystems, focusing on hybrid computing environments [1] - The support for NVIDIA's NVQLink platform is a significant advancement, facilitating low-latency, high-throughput integration between quantum processors and AI supercomputers, which is crucial for near-term quantum utility [1] - RGTI is enhancing its academic and government collaborations to bolster R&D and workforce development, with Michigan State University hosting its first on-premises quantum computer [2] - The company has signed an MOU with India's C-DAC to co-develop hybrid quantum computing systems, expanding its global footprint and aligning product development with real research and enterprise use cases [2] - RGTI's roadmap includes deploying a 150+ qubit system by late 2026 and a 1,000+ qubit system by 2027, targeting high fidelity rates [3] Industry Updates - IonQ has expanded its partnerships, including deploying Slovakia's first national quantum communication network and entering a partnership with CCRM to accelerate quantum applications in regenerative medicine [4] - D-Wave Quantum is building momentum through application-led partnerships with various commercial and research customers, focusing on near-term utility and practical quantum applications [5] Financial Performance - RGTI shares have increased by 105% over the last six months, contrasting with a 4.5% decline in the industry [6] - The company trades at a price-to-book ratio of 20.59, which is above the industry average, and carries a Value Score of F [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rigetti's 2025 earnings indicates a significant 88.9% decline from the previous year [10]