Rivian delivered just 8,640 vehicles in the first three months of 2024, the company’s worst quarterly mark since the end of 2022. But the company says the slow start won’t impact its overall guidance for the year — it still expects to deliver between 46,000 and 51,000 EVs by the end of 2025. The company warned that the first quarter would be challenging. On a conference call with analysts in February, Rivian’s chief financial officer said that a “challenging demand environment, partially driven by the impac ...

Core Insights - Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe expressed concerns about the U.S. falling behind China in electric vehicle (EV) market share, with China at 45% of new car sales being EVs compared to only 8% in the U.S. [2][3] - Scaringe emphasized the need for more affordable EV options in the U.S. market, particularly models priced under $50,000, to stimulate growth [5][6] Group 1: Market Comparison - China is innovating in the EV sector at "lightning speed," advancing battery technology and continuously adding new models, while the U.S. market lacks similar technological advancements [2][3] - Rivian's current offerings, the R1S SUV and R1T electric pickup truck, are priced over $50,000, limiting their customer base [4] Group 2: Future Models and Pricing Strategy - The upcoming Rivian R2 model is expected to broaden the customer base with a starting price around $45,000, which Scaringe believes will significantly increase accessibility [4][5] - Scaringe stated that the U.S. EV market requires an additional "10, 15, 20 other options" under $50,000 to foster true growth [5] Group 3: Technological Integration - Rivian is focusing on vertical integration and has a joint venture with Volkswagen to utilize its software in future EVs, which is crucial for the company's strategy [6] - The company aims to redefine network architecture with integrated technology, which is essential for the success of its models [5][6] Group 4: Stock Performance - Rivian's stock closed up 6.67% to $13.28, with a 52-week trading range of $8.26 to $18.86, indicating positive market sentiment [7]

Core Viewpoint - Rivian has been minimally affected by the recent announcement of a 25% tariff on all imported vehicles and parts in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Financial Performance and Guidance - Rivian's stock price has rebounded to pre-announcement levels since last Wednesday [3] - The tariffs will impact the company's gross margin to some extent, as some parts may come from secondary and tertiary suppliers outside the U.S. [4] - Management has incorporated these factors into their guidance for 2025, which includes a projected revenue of $1 billion with a gross margin of 30% [4] - The software and services sector is expected to improve, with Q4 2024 revenue of $214 million, a 114% increase from Q3 2023 [4] - Rivian's joint venture with Volkswagen is expected to generate approximately $2 billion in revenue over the next four years [5] - The company reported a positive gross margin of 28% in Q4 2024, achieving $170 million in gross profit, which is double Wall Street's expectations [7] Group 2: Market Position and Valuation - Rivian's EV/Sales ratio is currently at 2.4, which is attractive despite being nearly double the industry median [7] - The company's price-to-book ratio is only 10% higher than the industry median, trading at 2.3 [8] - Institutional positions increased by 66% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2024, with a 5.8% increase in holdings from 13F filers [8] Group 3: Risks and Uncertainties - A significant risk is the potential cancellation of regulatory credits that Rivian sells to other manufacturers, which generated nearly $300 million in revenue in 2024 [10] - There is uncertainty regarding the $7,500 green vehicle tax credit, which may be eliminated, impacting the company's financial outlook [11] - Management has accounted for these risks in their 2025 guidance, which reflects potential adjustments due to incentives, regulations, and tariffs [12][17] Group 4: Investment Outlook - Rivian is considered a speculative buy at current price levels, primarily due to the high-margin potential of its software and services sector [16] - The Volkswagen joint venture has improved the company's cash reserves and is expected to yield high-profit revenue in the coming years [16] - Despite uncertainties regarding regulatory credits and tariffs, management has incorporated most adverse factors into the 2025 guidance, making Rivian an attractive investment opportunity [17]

Small deep value individual investor, with a modest private investment portfolio, split approx. 50%-50% between shares and call options. I have a B.Sc. in aeronautical engineering and over 6 years of experience as an engineering consultant in the aerospace sector. The latter statement is not relevant in any way whatsoever to my investment style, but I thought to add it for self-indulgent purposes. I have a contrarian investment style, highly risky, and often dealing with illiquid options. How illiquid? Well ...

Core Viewpoint - Automotive stocks experienced mixed reactions following President Trump's announcement of new tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts, with Rivian Automotive benefiting initially due to its domestic production strategy [1] Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Rivian - The new 25% tariffs on imported vehicles are expected to enhance Rivian's competitiveness against larger rivals like General Motors (GM) and Ford, which offer lower-priced electric vehicles [3] - Rivian's upcoming R2 model, priced around $45,000, aims to compete more directly with GM's Equinox and Blazer EVs [3] - Rivian currently manufactures all its electric vehicles at its Illinois plant and plans to establish a second facility in Georgia, potentially giving it a cost advantage if competitors raise prices due to tariffs [4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Implications - Initial investor optimism led to a 7.6% increase in Rivian's stock, but it later fell by 5.7% as concerns about overall market dynamics emerged [1][2] - Estimates suggest that the new tariffs could increase the average cost of some new cars by $5,000 to $10,000, which could benefit Rivian if competitors raise their prices accordingly [5] - However, Trump has cautioned U.S. automakers against raising prices to offset the tariffs, which could hinder Rivian's sales growth and profitability [5][6]

I should say I have a kind of difficult relationship with Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN ) stock. I mean, when it went public, I was among the first authors on Seeking Alpha who advocated forDaniel Sereda is chief investment analyst at a family office whose investments span continents and diverse asset classes. This requires him to navigate through a plethora of information on a daily basis. His expertise is in filtering this wealth of data to extract the most critical ideas. He runs the investing group Be ...

Core Insights - Nio and Rivian, once leading electric vehicle stocks, have seen significant declines in their stock prices due to lower vehicle deliveries and substantial losses [2][14] - Nio is experiencing a recovery in its business with increasing deliveries and expanding vehicle margins, while Rivian is facing challenges with production and supply chain issues [2][8] Nio Overview - Nio's vehicle deliveries have grown significantly from 20,565 in 2019 to an expected 221,970 in 2024, with a peak growth rate of 113% in 2020 [4] - The company has faced challenges in 2022 and 2023, including supply chain issues and competition, leading to a decline in vehicle margins from 20.1% in 2021 to 9.5% in 2023 [3][4] - Nio's recent product launches, including the lower-end Onvo L60 and the Firefly hatchback, are expected to drive future growth [6][4] - Analysts project Nio's revenue to increase by 38% in 2025 and 32% in 2026, despite remaining unprofitable [7] Rivian Overview - Rivian's vehicle deliveries increased from 920 in 2021 to 50,122 in 2023, but growth is expected to stall in 2024 due to production shutdowns for upgrades [10] - The company has struggled with negative gross margins, which improved from -845.5% in 2021 to -24.1% in 2024, but profitability is still not expected soon [10][12] - Rivian anticipates delivering between 46,000 to 51,000 vehicles in 2025, with the launch of the R2 SUV planned for 2026 [11] - Analysts expect Rivian's revenue growth to be modest at 8% in 2025, with a potential increase of 40% in 2026 [13] Investment Comparison - Nio is viewed as a more attractive investment due to its higher vehicle deliveries, clearer future plans, and lower valuations compared to Rivian [14] - Rivian's future performance is uncertain, particularly with the upcoming R2 launch, making it a riskier investment at this time [14]

Electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) has received an update from Wall Street following the firm’s announcement of key changes to its business structure.Notably, Rivian stock has had an impressive run in recent sessions, gaining over 10% in the past week. On the monthly chart, RIVN is up 7%. However, as of press time, Rivian’s share price was showing weakness, down almost 0.8% at $12.26.RIVN one-week price chart. Source: Finbold Regarding the stock outlook, Truist Securities reaffirmed it ...

Company Performance - Rivian Automotive (RIVN) closed at $12.36, reflecting a +1.39% increase compared to the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.16% [1] - Over the past month, Rivian's stock has risen by 1.92%, contrasting with the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector's loss of 8.54% and the S&P 500's loss of 3.59% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Rivian is expected to report an EPS of -$0.80, which represents a 32.77% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is anticipated to be $998.66 million, indicating a 17.05% decline compared to the year-ago quarter [2] Full Year Estimates - For the full year, analysts project earnings of -$2.87 per share and revenue of $5.46 billion, reflecting changes of +28.96% and +9.8% respectively from the previous year [3] Analyst Projections - Recent shifts in analyst projections for Rivian are crucial as they reflect evolving short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating a favorable outlook on the company's health and profitability [4] Zacks Rank and Performance - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), shows Rivian currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [6] - Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate for Rivian has decreased by 2.41% [6] Industry Context - The Automotive - Domestic industry, part of the Auto-Tires-Trucks sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 210, placing it in the bottom 17% of over 250 industries [7] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Many growth stocks have struggled so far this year. Rivian (RIVN 3.10%) is no exception. Shares are down roughly 16% year to date, although the stock's volatility has shifted this figure around quite a bit.The strange thing is that shares are dropping in value right as the company gears up for its biggest growth spurt in years. Could this be the smartest investment you make in 2025?Watch out for this growth inflection pointAs an electric car stock, Rivian struggled in 2024 as the industry dealt with lower-t ...