Core Insights - Ross Stores, Inc. reported mixed results for Q4 fiscal 2024, with earnings surpassing estimates but sales missing expectations [1][3][4] - The company experienced a year-over-year increase in net sales, but earnings declined compared to the previous year [1][3] Financial Performance - Earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 was $1.79, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.65, but down 1.6% from $1.82 in Q4 fiscal 2023 [3] - Total sales reached $5.91 billion, a 3% increase year-over-year, but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.95 billion [4] - Comparable store sales (comps) grew by 3%, surpassing the expected increase of 2.4% [4] Cost and Profitability - Cost of goods sold (COGS) was $4.3 billion, up 0.7% year-over-year, representing 73.5% of sales, an increase of 80 basis points from the previous year [5] - Gross profit decreased by 4.7% year-over-year to $1.569 billion, with gross margin contracting 80 basis points to 26.5% [6] - Operating income rose 1.8% year-over-year to $731 million, with an operating margin of 12.4%, remaining flat year-over-year [7] Shareholder Returns - The company ended fiscal 2024 with cash and cash equivalents of $4.7 billion and long-term debt of $1.5 billion [10] - Ross Stores repurchased 1.7 million shares for $262 million in Q4, totaling 7.3 million shares for $1.05 billion in fiscal 2024 [11] - A 10% increase in the quarterly cash dividend to 40.5 cents per share was approved, payable on March 31, 2025 [12] Future Outlook - Sales trends softened in early 2025 due to unseasonable weather and macroeconomic volatility, leading to a cautious business forecast [13] - For Q1 fiscal 2025, the company anticipates comps to decline between 3% and flat, with EPS expected to be in the range of $1.33 to $1.47 [14] - For the fiscal year ending January 31, 2026, EPS is projected to be between $5.95 and $6.55 [15]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2024, earnings per share were $1.79 compared to $1.82 for Q4 2023, with net income at $587 million versus $610 million last year [10] - Total sales for Q4 2024 were $5.9 billion, with a comparable store sales gain of 3% on top of a 7% gain in the same period last year [10] - For fiscal 2024, earnings per share increased to $6.32 from $5.56 in fiscal 2023, with net income rising to $2.1 billion compared to $1.9 billion last year [11] - Total sales for fiscal 2024 increased to $21.1 billion, up from $20.4 billion in the prior year [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Cosmetics and children's merchandise were the best-performing areas during the holiday season, while DD's discounts posted healthy sales gains [14] - The operating margin for Q4 was 12.4%, flat compared to last year, with a 105 basis point benefit from the sale of a packaway facility [13][20] - Merchandise margin declined by 85 basis points due to an increased mix of quality branded assortments [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Pacific Northwest and Texas were the strongest regions for sales performance, while California and Florida were in line with the chain average [52] - Consolidated inventories were up 12%, mainly due to higher planned packaway levels, with packaway representing 41% of total inventories compared to 40% last year [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to open approximately 90 new locations in fiscal 2025, including about 80 Ross and 10 DD's, while closing or relocating about 10 to 15 older stores [29] - The management believes the brand and merchandising strategies for both Ross and DD's are sound and will continue to be pursued without significant changes [40][41] - The company aims to enhance its store environment and marketing efforts, with a focus on prudent investment and potential ROI [72] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that sales trends began softening later in January and into February due to unseasonable weather and macroeconomic volatility [23] - The company expects comparable store sales for Q1 2025 to be down 3% to flat, with earnings per share projected between $1.33 and $1.47 [24] - Management remains optimistic about the potential for closeout merchandise opportunities due to the current retail environment [34] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 1.7 million shares for $262 million in Q4 2024, totaling 7.3 million shares for $1.05 billion in fiscal 2024 [16] - A 10% increase in the quarterly cash dividend to $0.405 per share was approved, payable on March 31, 2025 [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on your top strategic priorities? - The CEO indicated that the brand strategy for Ross and customer strategy for DD's are sound and will continue to be pursued, with a focus on learning the off-price model [40] Question: Can you discuss regional performance in Q4? - The Pacific Northwest and Texas were top-performing regions, while California and Florida were in line with the chain [52] Question: How do you view the impact of weather on sales? - Management noted that weather-impacted areas saw declines, but improvements were observed as weather conditions improved [46] Question: What is the outlook for merchandise margins? - Merchandise margins are expected to be relatively neutral for fiscal 2025, with ongoing adjustments based on customer feedback [64] Question: How is the company handling tariffs? - The company is monitoring tariff changes closely and plans to maintain price competitiveness while exploring closeout opportunities [110][111] Question: What is the strategy for store openings? - The company sees growth potential with existing store formats and plans to continue opening new stores in various markets [117] Question: How does the company plan to enhance marketing efforts? - The CEO acknowledged the need for improved marketing and messaging, with plans to invest in these areas over time [134]

Company Performance - Ross Stores reported quarterly earnings of $1.79 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.65 per share, but down from $1.82 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 8.48% [1] - The company posted revenues of $5.91 billion for the quarter ended January 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.63% and down from $6.02 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Ross Stores has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Stock Outlook - Ross Stores shares have declined approximately 9.6% since the beginning of the year, compared to a decline of 0.5% for the S&P 500 [3] - The company's earnings outlook is mixed, with a current Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.52 on revenues of $5.08 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $6.63 on revenues of $22.24 billion [7] Industry Context - The Retail - Discount Stores industry, to which Ross Stores belongs, is currently ranked in the top 24% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to lower-ranked industries [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can impact investor sentiment and stock performance [5]

Core Viewpoint - Ross Stores reported strong earnings with an EPS of $1.79, exceeding analyst expectations, but revenue fell short, indicating potential challenges ahead [2][6]. Financial Performance - EPS for Q4 2024 was $1.79, surpassing the estimated $1.66, aided by a one-time sale [2][6]. - Revenue reached $5.9 billion, missing the estimated $5.943 billion and down from $6 billion in the previous year, reflecting a 2% year-over-year decline [3][6]. - Operating margin remained stable at 12.4%, unchanged from the previous year [3][7]. - Net income was reported at $587 million, a decrease of 3.8% from $610 million in Q4 2023 [3]. Company Overview - Ross Stores is a leader in the off-price retail sector, focusing on buying excess inventory and offering significant discounts on well-known brands [4]. - The company expanded its store count from 2,109 to 2,186 locations over the fiscal year [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to attract cost-conscious shoppers by providing value-driven options and enhancing operational competitiveness [5]. - Ross's merchandise strategy, termed "packaway," ensures timely inventory deployment, contributing to its pricing advantage [5]. Market Dynamics - Comparable store sales increased by 3%, building on a 7% increase from the prior year, although the sales boost was moderated by an extra week in last year's period [7]. - The company faced challenges due to a dip in consumer activity around Thanksgiving, impacting sales momentum [6]. Future Outlook - For fiscal 2025, Ross projects flat to a 3% decline in comparable store sales for the first quarter, reflecting caution regarding macroeconomic conditions [8]. - Management anticipates annual EPS to range from $5.95 to $6.55, a slight contraction from the previous year's $6.32, indicating ongoing competitive pressures [8]. Investor Considerations - Investors should focus on Ross's proactive purchasing strategy, which is guided by demographic targeting and geographic positioning in urban areas [9]. - The company is navigating competitive tensions from various retail formats, particularly e-commerce, and localized factors affecting shopper behavior [9].

Group 1 - Ross Stores Inc. shares declined after hours due to forecasts of weaker same-store sales for the year, attributed to recent slowing trends and adverse weather conditions [1] - The company anticipates same-store sales to range from a decline of 1% to an increase of 2%, which is below FactSet's expectation of a 3% gain [2] - Earnings per share are projected to be between $5.95 and $6.55, compared to FactSet's forecast of $6.67 [2]

Earnings Performance - Earnings per share for Q4 2024 were $1.79, down from $1.82 in Q4 2023, with net income of $587 million compared to $610 million last year[5] - Fiscal 2024 earnings per share increased to $6.32, up from $5.56 in fiscal 2023, with net earnings rising to $2.1 billion on sales of $21.1 billion[6] - For Q1 2025, comparable store sales are forecasted to decline by 3% to flat, with projected earnings per share between $1.33 and $1.47[10] - Fiscal 2025 earnings per share are projected to be between $5.95 and $6.55, compared to $6.32 for fiscal 2024[10] Sales and Revenue - Comparable store sales for Q4 2024 grew by 3%, following a robust 7% gain in the same period last year[5] - Ross Stores operates 1,831 locations in 43 states and 355 dd's DISCOUNTS stores, with fiscal 2024 revenues of $21.1 billion[14] Cash and Dividends - A 10% increase in the quarterly cash dividend to $0.405 per share was announced, payable on March 31, 2025[9] - The company ended fiscal 2024 with $4.7 billion in cash after funding growth and capital needs[9] - Dividends paid increased to $488,721, compared to $454,814, marking a rise of 7.5%[20] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets increased to $14,905,332, up from $14,300,109, representing a growth of 4.2% year-over-year[18] - Current liabilities rose to $4,661,825, up 11.4% from $4,185,796 year-over-year[18] - Long-term debt decreased to $1,515,080 from $2,211,017, a reduction of 31.5%[18] - Total current assets grew to $7,538,696, an increase of 1.9% compared to $7,398,138 last year[18] Cash Flow and Investments - Cash flows from operating activities totaled $2,356,988, a decrease of 6.2% from $2,514,490 in the previous year[20] - Net cash used in investing activities was $637,462, down from $762,812, indicating a decrease of 16.4%[20] - The company ended the period with cash and cash equivalents of $4,730,744, a slight decrease from $4,872,446[20] Inventory and Operating Margin - Merchandise inventory increased to $2,444,513, reflecting a rise of 11.5% from $2,192,220[18] - The fourth quarter operating margin was 12.4%, flat compared to the previous year, with a one-time benefit of approximately $0.14 per share from the sale of a packaway facility[7][8] Share Repurchase - The company repurchased 1.7 million shares for $262 million in Q4 2024, totaling 7.3 million shares repurchased for $1.05 billion in fiscal 2024[8]

Core Insights - Ross Stores, Inc. is set to release its fourth-quarter financial results on March 4, with expected earnings of $1.66 per share, a decrease from $1.82 per share in the same quarter last year [1] - The company projects quarterly revenue of $5.95 billion, down from $6.02 billion a year earlier [1] - William Sheehan has been appointed as Deputy CFO of Ross Stores [1] Stock Performance - Ross Stores shares declined by 2.5%, closing at $136.81 [2] Analyst Ratings - Morgan Stanley downgraded Ross Stores from Overweight to Equal-Weight, reducing the price target from $164 to $140 [3] - Wells Fargo also downgraded the stock from Overweight to Equal-Weight, setting a price target of $165 [3] - Guggenheim maintained a Buy rating with a price target of $180 [3] - JP Morgan kept an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $171 to $173 [3] - Evercore ISI Group maintained an Outperform rating and increased the price target from $170 to $180 [3]

Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) is expected to register a decline in its top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings on March 4, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $1.65 per share, suggesting a 9.3% drop from $1.82 reported in the year-earlier period. The consensus mark has been unchanged in the past 30 days.Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $5.95 bi ...

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Ross Stores due to lower revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2] Earnings Expectations - Ross Stores is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.65 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 9.3% [3] - Revenue projections stand at $5.94 billion, down 1.4% from the same quarter last year [3] Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.11% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4] - A positive Earnings ESP of +1.41% suggests analysts have recently become more optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [10][11] Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) [8] - Ross Stores currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2, enhancing the likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [11] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Ross Stores exceeded the expected earnings of $1.39 per share, achieving $1.48, resulting in a surprise of +6.47% [12] - The company has successfully beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters [13] Conclusion - While an earnings beat may not solely dictate stock movement, betting on stocks expected to exceed earnings expectations can increase the odds of success [14][15] - Ross Stores is viewed as a compelling candidate for an earnings beat, but investors should consider other influencing factors as well [16]

Core Insights - Ross Stores (ROST) stock closed at $139.73, reflecting a daily increase of +0.46%, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.24% [1] - Over the past month, Ross Stores' stock has decreased by 6.61%, underperforming the Retail-Wholesale sector's increase of 5.98% and the S&P 500's increase of 2.37% [1] Earnings Report Expectations - Ross Stores is set to release its earnings report on March 4, 2025, with projected earnings of $1.65 per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of 9.34% [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is $5.92 billion, which is a decrease of 1.77% compared to the previous year [2] Analyst Estimates and Stock Performance - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Ross Stores are being monitored, as they often reflect changes in near-term business trends [3] - Upward revisions in estimates suggest analysts' positive outlook on the company's operations and profit generation capabilities [3] Zacks Rank and Performance - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), indicates that Ross Stores currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [5] - Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has seen a slight increase of 0.04% [5] Valuation Metrics - Ross Stores has a Forward P/E ratio of 20.83, which is higher than the industry average of 19.02 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 2.13, compared to the Retail-Discount Stores industry's average PEG ratio of 2.08 [6] Industry Context - The Retail-Discount Stores industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector and currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 31, placing it in the top 13% of over 250 industries [7] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]