Core Viewpoint - The recent strong performance of the Russell 2000 is largely attributed to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, rather than the earnings outlook for small-cap stocks [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The Royal Bank of Canada holds a "neutral" view on small-cap stocks in the U.S. over the next 6 to 12 months [1] - Small-cap stocks typically require either a complete recession or a very hot economic environment to perform exceptionally well, conditions that are currently lacking [1] Group 2: Valuation Metrics - The proportion of companies within the Russell 2000 with negative earnings is at a historical high [1] - The price-to-earnings ratio for the Russell 2000 stands at 16.3, which is above the average level, indicating limited investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Royal Bank despite higher revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Royal Bank is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.36 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 0.8%, while revenues are projected to be $11.59 billion, an increase of 8.5% from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.85% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a positive reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP for Royal Bank is +1.06%, suggesting analysts are optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [12]. - A positive Earnings ESP is a strong indicator of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 [10]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Royal Bank's expected earnings were $2.25 per share, but it reported $2.20, resulting in a surprise of -2.22% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, Royal Bank has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times [14]. Industry Comparison - Bank of Nova Scotia is expected to report earnings of $1.28 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 7.6%, with revenues projected at $6.86 billion, up 12.4% from the previous year [18]. - The consensus EPS estimate for Bank of Nova Scotia has been revised 0.8% higher, but its Earnings ESP is 0%, making it challenging to predict an earnings beat [19].

Group 1 - Royal Bank of Canada (RY) and Bank of Montreal (BMO) are considering the sale of their joint venture Moneris, potentially valuing the business at approximately $2 billion [1][8] - Moneris, established in 2000, is one of Canada's largest payment processors, handling about one-third of all business transactions in the country and generating around $700 million in annual revenues [2][8] - The decision to sell Moneris is not finalized, and RY and BMO may opt to retain part or all of the business [2] Group 2 - The North American payments industry has seen rapid digitization, prompting many banks to divest their payments operations, with buyers often being payments companies or private equity firms attracted to the recurring revenue [3] - Recent collaborations in the industry include Fiserv Inc. partnering with TD Bank Group to enhance TD's merchant business and acquiring part of TD's merchant processing operations in Canada [4] Group 3 - Year-to-date, shares of RY and BMO have increased by 13.2% and 16.5%, respectively, which is below the industry's growth of 35.2% [5] - Both RY and BMO currently hold a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [6]

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