格隆汇1月8日｜摩根大通分析师Matthew Lofting、Tianyu Wu和Riddhi Agarwal在报告中指出，受下游业 务表现疲软影响，壳牌第四季度利润将遭到削减。他们表示，这家英国能源巨头前九个月的表现稳健， 但最后一季度的表现则毁誉参半。他们补充称，其上游业务的表现将被下游业务抵消，后者将拖累整体 利润。分析师认为，综合天然气部门是一个亮点，该部门环比持平的业绩优于季节性预期。尽管发布了 这一预告，分析师仍指出，在普遍看空的行业背景下，壳牌依然是表现最好的公司之一。目前该股下跌 2.4%，报2,591便士。 ...

Core Insights - Global battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales increased by 13% annually in 2024, reaching 10.4 million units, which represents 14% of new personal vehicle sales worldwide [1] - The oil and gas industry is under pressure to diversify into electric vehicle-related energy solutions, including charging infrastructure and battery technologies, as regions leverage state support for EV adoption [1][2] Industry Trends - The expansion of electric vehicles (EVs) is reshaping the competitive landscape for the oil and gas industry, with significant supply chain shifts noted [2] - Leading oil and gas companies, particularly European firms like Shell, BP, TotalEnergies, and ENI, are proactively building EV charging networks to adapt to the changing market [3] Strategic Opportunities - Oil marketing companies can utilize their existing retail networks to develop EV charging hubs, especially in urban centers and along highways [4] - Investments in battery value chains, including energy storage and recycling, as well as integrated grid and renewable energy solutions, present additional avenues for growth [4] Long-term Outlook - Despite the push for cleaner alternatives, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will remain part of the transport landscape for years, maintaining demand for petroleum fuels [5] - The transition to EVs offers clear opportunities for oil and gas companies to adapt and thrive in a low-carbon mobility environment [5]

Group 1 - Shell Group (SHEL.US) expects a significant decline in oil trading performance for Q4 due to falling crude oil prices, with the chemical sector anticipated to incur major losses, falling below the breakeven point [1] - The oil market is currently facing an oversupply situation, which may lead to a more challenging trading environment in the coming months [1] - Shell's internal trading business, which includes oil, gas, fuels, chemicals, and renewable energy, is a key driver of profitability, although specific performance details have not been disclosed [1] Group 2 - Shell's strong trading performance in Q3 was a contributing factor to its earnings exceeding expectations, with CEO Wael Sawan focusing on cost-cutting and divesting underperforming assets to improve the balance sheet [1] - Shell's stock performance ranked second among the top five global oil giants last year, trailing only ExxonMobil, but the stock's growth has slowed since peaking in mid-November, ending the year with less than 11% growth [1] - In the gas sector, Shell expects trading performance to remain flat compared to the previous period, maintaining its position as the world's largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) trader [4] Group 3 - Shell is preparing to resume preliminary work on offshore gas fields in Venezuela by Q3 2025, aiming to supply gas to Trinidad and Tobago, with increasing confidence in new permits from the U.S. government [2] - The U.S. has stated it has control over Venezuela's oil industry and that American companies will invest billions in the country [3] - Shell's oil and gas production saw a slight increase this quarter, including contributions from its joint venture with Equinor ASA, Adura North Sea [5]

Core Viewpoint - Shell has updated its fourth-quarter 2025 outlook, indicating softer earnings across various business lines due to tax-related adjustments, weaker trading conditions, and lower downstream margins [1] Group-Level Performance - Group-level adjusted earnings and cash flow are expected to face pressure compared to earlier quarters, despite stable production in Shell's core upstream and integrated gas portfolios [1] Integrated Gas Segment - Production in Integrated Gas is projected between 930,000 and 970,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (kboe/d) for Q4, remaining flat compared to Q3, with LNG liquefaction volumes forecasted at 7.5 to 7.9 million tonnes [2] Upstream Production - Upstream production is anticipated to be between 1.84 and 1.94 million boe/d, incorporating the Adura joint venture in the UK, with operating expenses and depreciation expected to stay within historical ranges [3] Marketing Business - The Marketing business is expected to see lower sales volumes of 2.65 to 2.75 million barrels per day, down from 2.82 million barrels per day in Q3, with adjusted earnings projected to fall below Q4 2024 levels due to a non-cash deferred tax adjustment [4] Chemicals and Products Segment - The Chemicals and Products segment is expected to perform the weakest, with adjusted earnings projected to post a "significant loss" due to a deferred tax adjustment, with earnings anticipated to be below break-even for the quarter [5] Refining Margins - Refining margins are forecasted to rise to an indicative $14 per barrel, up from $12 per barrel in Q3, while chemicals margins are expected to decline to $140 per tonne from $160 per tonne [6] Oil Sands Production - Following a Canadian oil sands asset swap, oil sands production is expected to be around 20,000 boe/d in Q4, with a reduction in Chemicals and Products adjusted earnings offset by lower non-controlling interests at the group level [7] Renewables and Energy Solutions - Adjusted earnings in Renewables and Energy Solutions are expected to range from a loss of $200 million to a gain of $200 million, indicating volatility in Shell's lower-carbon portfolio, while corporate adjusted earnings are forecasted at a loss of $400 million to $600 million [8]

Core Viewpoint - Shell's fourth-quarter oil trading performance is expected to be significantly weaker due to declining crude oil prices [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Shell's internal trading business encompasses oil, natural gas, fuels, chemicals, renewable power, and carbon credits, trading both its own production and third-party supplies [1] - The company does not separately disclose the performance of its trading division, but it is closely monitored by the market as it is often a key driver of profitability [1]

Group 1 - The company expects refining margins in the fourth quarter to be approximately $14 per barrel [1]

Group 1 - The company expects fourth-quarter upstream production to be between 1.84 million and 1.94 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, an increase from 1.83 million in the third quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shell has narrowed its projected range for fourth-quarter liquefied natural gas production to between 7.5 million metric tons and 7.9 million tons in a recent trading update [1] Company Summary - Shell's updated production forecast indicates a focus on optimizing output within a specific range for liquefied natural gas [1] - The company is actively managing its production levels to align with market conditions and demand [1] Industry Summary - The liquefied natural gas sector is experiencing fluctuations, prompting companies like Shell to adjust their production forecasts [1] - The narrowing of production estimates reflects broader trends in the energy market, where companies are responding to changing demand dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that British retailer Marks & Spencer experienced a 5.6% increase in like-for-like food sales during the Christmas quarter, indicating strong performance in the food segment [1] - Conversely, the company faced a decline in clothing, home, and beauty sales, which fell by 2.9%, suggesting ongoing challenges in these categories [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company provides an updated outlook for Q4 2025, with expectations subject to finalization of results to be published on February 5, 2026. The outlook excludes identified items and includes various operational metrics across different segments. Integrated Gas - Q3'25 production was 934 kboe/d, with Q4'25 outlook between 930 - 970 kboe/d - LNG liquefaction volumes are expected to increase from 7.3 MT in Q3'25 to a range of 7.5 - 7.9 MT in Q4'25 - Underlying operating expenses (opex) are projected to rise from $1.1 billion in Q3'25 to a range of $1.2 - 1.4 billion in Q4'25 - Pre-tax depreciation is expected to decrease from $1.6 billion in Q3'25 to a range of $1.4 - 1.8 billion in Q4'25 - Taxation charge is anticipated to increase from $0.5 billion in Q3'25 to a range of $0.6 - 0.9 billion in Q4'25 [2] Upstream - Q3'25 production was 1,832 kboe/d, with Q4'25 outlook between 1,840 - 1,940 kboe/d, including the impact of the Adura JV incorporation - Underlying opex is expected to decrease from $2.2 billion in Q3'25 to a range of $2.1 - 2.7 billion in Q4'25 - Pre-tax depreciation is projected to decrease from $2.7 billion in Q3'25 to a range of $2.4 - 3.0 billion in Q4'25 - Taxation charge is expected to decrease from $1.9 billion in Q3'25 to a range of $1.4 - 2.2 billion in Q4'25 [3] Marketing - Sales volumes are expected to decrease from 2,824 kb/d in Q3'25 to a range of 2,650 - 2,750 kb/d in Q4'25 due to seasonal factors - Underlying opex is projected to decrease from $2.7 billion in Q3'25 to a range of $2.3 - 2.7 billion in Q4'25 - Pre-tax depreciation is expected to decrease from $0.6 billion in Q3'25 to a range of $0.5 - 0.7 billion in Q4'25 - Taxation charge is anticipated to decrease from $0.4 billion in Q3'25 to a range of $0.2 - 0.5 billion in Q4'25 [4] Chemicals and Products - Indicative refining margin is expected to increase from $12/bbl in Q3'25 to $14/bbl in Q4'25 - Indicative chemicals margin is projected to decrease from $160/tonne in Q3'25 to $140/tonne in Q4'25, with significant losses expected in adjusted earnings due to deferred tax adjustments - Refinery utilization is expected to decrease from 96% in Q3'25 to a range of 93% - 97% in Q4'25 - Chemicals utilization is projected to decrease from 80% in Q3'25 to a range of 75% - 79% in Q4'25 [5][6] Renewables and Energy Solutions - Adjusted earnings are expected to shift from $0.1 billion in Q3'25 to a range of (0.2) - 0.2 billion in Q4'25 [7] Corporate - Adjusted earnings are projected to decrease from (0.4) billion in Q3'25 to a range of (0.6) - (0.4) billion in Q4'25 [8] Shell Group - Cash flow from operations (CFFO) is expected to include a tax payment of $2.3 - 3.1 billion in Q4'25, down from $2.7 billion in Q3'25 - CFFO excluding working capital is expected to include an outflow of approximately $1.5 billion related to emissions certificates - Working capital movements are expected to include a typical payment of around $1.2 billion for German Mineral Oil Taxes in Q4'25 [9] Additional Considerations - The taxation charge across segments includes a non-cash reassessment of deferred tax assets, with an expected impact of approximately $0.3 billion split across joint ventures and associates in Marketing and Chemicals [10]