证券研究报告 Spotify (SPOT US) 涨价效果初步兑现 | 华泰研究 | 年报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 2 月 11 日│美国 | | 目标价(美元): 互联网 | 619.44 | | Spotify 公布 25Q4 业绩：总收入 | 45.31 亿欧元略超指引（45 亿欧元）， | 夏路路 | 研究员 | | yoy+7%/+13%（汇率中性）；毛利率 | 33.1%，超指引（32.9%）；经营利 | SAC No. S0570523100002 SFC No. BTP154 | xialulu@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 | | 润 7.01 亿欧元，好于指引（6.20 | 亿欧元）；净利润 11.74 亿欧元，大幅超 | | | | | | 詹博 | 研究员 | | 收盘价 (美元 截至 2 月 9 日) | 414.84 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (美元百万) | 85,492 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (美元百万) | 1,163 | | 52 周价格范围 ...

美光科技（MU）下跌 3%，因韩联社（Yonhap）报道称，三星计划最早于本月重启 HBM4（高带宽内存 4）的 大规模生产，以供应给英伟达（NVDA）的 Vera Rubin芯片。 我们早在去年 9 月就建议选择三星而非美光，因当时担忧美光在 HBM 领域的进展缓慢，而这些担忧如今似乎已在 一定程度上反映到市场中。 不过，自去年秋季以来，美光股价已累计上涨 200% 以上，而三星仅上涨 100% 美光科技（MU）下跌 3%，因韩联社（Yonhap）报道称，三星计划最早于本月重启 HBM4（高带宽内存 4）的 大规模生产，以供应给英伟达（NVDA）的 Vera Rubin芯片。 我们早在去年 9 月就建议选择三星而非美光，因当时担忧美光在 HBM 领域的进展缓慢，而这些担忧如今似乎已在 一定程度上反映到市场中。 今日与投资者交流后发现，多数人观点与我们一致，当前主要讨论焦点包括：亚马逊云服务（AWS）增速能有多 快、运营利润还有多少上调空间，以及资本支出周期将持续多久。 Spotify（SPOT）下跌 2%：上周末，TMTB 聊天群中就多空双方对该股的争论展开了热烈讨论，具体观点如 下： AnonCap（Ta ...

Core Insights - Spotify is enhancing its platform through a focus on artificial intelligence and user engagement to improve user experience and drive growth [1] - The company competes with other streaming services such as Apple Music and Amazon Music [1] Stock Performance - Evercore ISI set a price target of $700 for Spotify, suggesting a potential increase of about 47% from its trading price of $476.13 [2][5] - The stock has experienced a 14.77% rise, indicating positive market sentiment [2][5] - Spotify's stock has fluctuated between $462.78 and $495.94, with a yearly high of $785 and a low of $405, reflecting investor reactions to its strategic focus [3] Market Capitalization and Trading Volume - Spotify's market capitalization is approximately $98 billion, highlighting its significant presence in the music streaming industry [3][5] - Today's trading volume for Spotify is 10.1 million shares, indicating strong investor interest [4]

Market Overview - Major equity averages experienced a decline towards the end of the trading day, despite the S&P 500 hitting a record high earlier in the session [2][5] - The S&P 500 closed down approximately 0.3%, the Nasdaq down about 0.6%, while the Dow saw a slight increase of 0.1% [6] - Trading volume in the S&P 500 was down 15% from the ten-day average, indicating a cautious market sentiment [4] Economic Indicators - Investors are awaiting a significant jobs report, which is expected to influence market sentiment and the Federal Reserve's decisions [5] - The upcoming inflation report on Friday is also anticipated to provide insights into the U.S. economy [5] Company Performances - Datadog's stock rose nearly 14% after beating expectations in its fourth-quarter results, despite a weaker full-year forecast [10] - Spotify saw a significant increase of almost 15%, attributed to adding 38 million new users, reaching a total of 751 million [12] - European Wax Center's stock surged 43% after agreeing to be taken private by General Atlantic, valuing the company at approximately $330 million [14][15] Notable Declines - Alphabet's shares fell 1.8% after raising nearly $3 billion in debt, highlighting the funding needs of tech companies [16] - Coca-Cola's stock declined as the company projected organic sales growth of 4-5% for 2026, slightly below analyst expectations [17] - Wealth management firms, including Charles Schwab and Raymond James, experienced declines of 7.4% and 8.8%, respectively, following the launch of a new tax planning offering by Altruist [18] Earnings Reports - Ford reported an adjusted EPS of $0.13, below the estimated $0.18, and projected adjusted EV for 2026 between $8 billion to $10 billion [20] - Robinhood's stock dropped approximately 7% in after-hours trading after its fourth-quarter net revenue missed analyst estimates [21] - Lyft's stock fell about 15% in after-hours trading despite authorizing a new share buyback, as the outlook for the first quarter was lower than expected [23][24] - Zillow Group met revenue estimates but provided a first-quarter revenue outlook that was below analyst expectations [25]

Shares of Spotify Technology (NYSE: SPOT) popped on Tuesday after the audio streaming leader announced solid growth across its key business metrics. By the close of trading, Spotify's stock price was up more than 14%. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now, when you join Stock Advisor. See the stocks » Image source: Getty Images. Record subscriber adds Spotify's monthly active users (MAUs) grew by 11% year over year to ...

周二美股成交额第1名特斯拉收高1.89%，成交271.5亿美元。特斯拉公司周二任命其欧洲业务的一位负 责人来负责全球电动汽车销售，这是该公司陷入困境的汽车业务的最新领导层变动。 据知情人士透露，特斯拉欧洲、中东和非洲（EMEA）业务副总裁Joe Ward将领导公司的销售、服务和 交付组织。 第2名英伟达收跌0.79%，成交257.77亿美元。日前有消息称三星电子将提前开始大规模生产新一代高带 宽存储芯片。三星计划本月启动HBM4芯片的大规模生产，为英伟达下一代AI加速器Vera Rubin供货。 据报道，这款芯片的处理速度较前代HBM3E提升约22%，数据传输速率可达11.7 Gbps。 第3名微软收跌0.08%，成交186.1亿美元。据媒体周二报道，特朗普打算让亚马逊、谷歌和微软等公司 免受即将对芯片征收的关税影响，因为这些公司正在竞相建设为人工智能繁荣提供动力的数据中心。 另外有报道称，特朗普政府希望科技公司承诺加入一项关于人工智能数据中心的新协议。这份协议草案 列出了相关承诺，以确保数据中心不会推高家庭用电价格、不会使水资源紧张，也不会破坏能源电网。 第5名美光收跌2.67%，成交131.99亿美元。德 ...

Economic Indicators - Nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by +68,000 in January, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.4% [1] - Average hourly earnings are projected to rise by +0.3% month-over-month and +3.7% year-over-year in January [1] - Initial weekly unemployment claims are anticipated to decrease by -7,000 to 224,000 [1] - Existing home sales in January are expected to decline by -4.3% month-over-month to 4.16 million [1] - January CPI is expected to rise by +2.5% year-over-year, with core CPI also expected to increase by +2.5% year-over-year [1] Retail Sales and Employment Costs - US December retail sales were unchanged month-over-month, falling short of expectations of +0.4% [2] - The employment cost index for Q4 rose by +0.7% quarter-over-quarter, which is the smallest increase in 4.5 years and below the expected +0.8% [2] Stock Market Performance - Stock indexes experienced mixed trading, with the Dow Jones reaching a new all-time high while the S&P 500 closed down -0.33% and the Nasdaq down -0.56% [6][5] - The broader market initially found support from weaker-than-expected retail sales and employment cost index reports, which lowered bond yields [5] Earnings Season Insights - Over half of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 78% beating expectations [7] - S&P earnings growth is expected to rise by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth [7] - Excluding the Magnificent Seven tech stocks, Q4 earnings are projected to increase by +4.6% [7] Interest Rates and Bond Market - The markets are pricing in a 23% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting [8] - The 10-year T-note yield fell to a 3.5-week low of 4.13%, supported by weaker-than-expected economic reports [9] Sector Performance - AI-infrastructure stocks faced pressure, with Western Digital down more than -7% and other tech stocks also declining [12] - Wealth-management stocks dropped significantly, with Raymond James Financial down more than -8% due to concerns over AI disruption [13] - Homebuilding stocks rose after the drop in mortgage rates, with Toll Brothers up more than +6% [14] Company-Specific Developments - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 39 cents, below the consensus of 49 cents, leading to a decline of more than -14% [15] - Incyte forecasted dull-year total net product revenue of $4.77 billion to $4.94 billion, causing a drop of more than -8% [16] - Spotify reported a record 38 million monthly active users in Q4, leading to a rise of more than +17% [17]

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 ___________________________________________________________ FORM 20-F ___________________________________________________________ ☐ REGISTRATION STATEMENT PURSUANT TO SECTION 12(b) OR 12(g) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 OR ☒ ANNUAL REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 OR ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCH ...

Core Viewpoint - Spotify's Q4 financial results exceeded market expectations, leading to a nearly 20% surge in its stock price, although it remains down nearly 20% from its year-to-date high [1]. Financial Performance - Spotify achieved a record gross margin of 33.1% in Q4, driven by its focus on audiobooks and high-margin podcasts [4]. - The company added 38 million new subscribers in Q4, marking the largest quarterly increase in its history [4]. - There is a notable increase in operating income, indicating that previous headwinds related to Swedish payroll taxes are now resolved [4]. Subscriber Growth and Market Position - Spotify's outlook suggests continued profitability with an expected increase to 759 million subscribers in the current quarter [5]. - The company is transitioning smoothly to new leadership under co-CEOs Gustav Soderstrom and Alex Norstrom [5]. Valuation and Investment Potential - Spotify shares are currently trading at a significant discount compared to its historical average and peer Netflix, with a price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 4.37x versus Netflix's 7.68x [6]. - Wall Street maintains a "Strong Buy" consensus rating for Spotify, with a mean target price indicating potential upside of over 45% [7]. User Acceptance and Growth Potential - Spotify's user growth trajectory shows no signs of hitting a ceiling, and recent price hikes have been accepted by users [8].

Core Insights - Spotify Technology's shares increased over 11% in premarket trading following a strong fourth-quarter earnings report that surpassed analyst expectations, driven by user growth and improved profitability [1] Financial Performance - The company reported earnings per share of €4.43 for the fourth quarter, significantly higher than the consensus estimate of €2.85 [2] - Revenue for the quarter rose 7% year over year to €4.53 billion, slightly above expectations of €4.52 billion, representing a 13% growth on a constant-currency basis [2] - Gross margin improved to 33.1%, an increase of 83 basis points from the previous year, while operating income surged 47% year over year to €701 million, resulting in an operating margin of 15.5% [3] User Growth - Monthly active users reached 751 million, exceeding analyst projections of 745.24 million, marking an 11% increase from the previous year [3] - Premium subscribers grew by 10% year over year to 290 million, including 9 million net additions during the quarter [3] Future Outlook - For the first quarter of 2026, Spotify forecasts revenue of €4.5 billion, slightly below the consensus estimate of €4.57 billion [4] - The company anticipates monthly active users to rise to 759 million, surpassing analyst expectations of 752.45 million [4]