We came across a bullish thesis on Spotify Technology S.A. on Nikhs’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on SPOT. Spotify Technology S.A.'s share was trading at $576.79 as of December 2nd. SPOT’s trailing and forward P/E were 74.59 and 42.92 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. Spotify Photo by Heidi Fin on Unsplash Spotify Technology S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides audio streaming subscription services worldwide. SPOT’s Q3 2025 results confirmed a structur ...

Most wonderful time. >> It's the moment music fans wait all year for. >> Happy Spotify rap day.>> Music streaming giant Spotify dropping its year-end listening roundups. >> I love seeing everyone's Spotify wrapped. >> A customized report for each user of top artists, albums, and songs.Globally, Bad Bunny was crowned the most played artist with a staggering 19.8% 8 billion streams driven in part by his sixth studio album and history making residency in Puerto Rico. >> This was much more than just a concert. ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank maintains a Buy rating and a price target of $775 for Spotify, indicating strong potential for revenue, margin, and profit growth under various pricing scenarios [1] Group 1: Pricing Scenarios and Revenue Impact - A $1 per month price increase (8% hike) is projected to raise 2026 revenue by approximately 2%, with similar effects on gross profit and a 5% increase in EBIT [1] - If only the Premium tier is raised by $1, while Music-only pricing remains unchanged, this would still lead to a 2% revenue increase, with 60-70% incremental margins, resulting in a 4% boost to gross profit and a 9% increase in EBIT [2] - In a more optimistic scenario, raising Premium pricing by $2 and Music-only pricing by $1 could lead to nearly a 5% rise in revenue, a 10% increase in gross profit, and a 22% expansion in EBIT, assuming historical revenue-share patterns are maintained [3]

Core Viewpoint - Spotify Technology S.A. is viewed as a strong investment opportunity despite recent stock performance, with a recommendation to buy due to its robust subscription model and growth potential in the audio streaming market [1]. Company Overview - Spotify provides audio streaming services, allowing users to access music and podcasts through both ad-free subscriptions and free, ad-supported options [1]. - The company has been recognized as a leading platform in the streaming audio sector, with a history of strong performance [1]. Recent Performance - Recent results from Spotify missed expectations, and the guidance for the current quarter was not optimistic [1]. - Despite the challenges in ad revenue, Spotify reported a 40% year-over-year growth in monthly active advertisers [1]. Strategic Outlook - Spotify has acknowledged its shortcomings and has laid out a plan to address them, indicating a proactive approach to improving its business [1]. - The company has completed most of the heavy lifting on its ad tech stack, which may enhance future performance [1].

Group 1 - Apple Store in Beijing has officially joined the national subsidy program, offering discounts up to 2000 yuan on selected products, such as the iPhone 17 256GB, which is now priced at 5499 yuan after a 500 yuan subsidy [4] - ST Cube may face mandatory delisting due to significant violations, with reported false revenue of approximately 591.58 million yuan for 2021 and 2022, constituting 50.91% of the total reported revenue for those years [4] - WeChat's HKD wallet has launched a donation section to support fire rescue efforts in Tai Po, with no administrative fees deducted from donations, ensuring all funds go directly to charitable organizations [5] Group 2 - New regulations in Beijing require special license plates for delivery and takeaway vehicles, enhancing management of non-motorized vehicles [2] - Lei Jun, founder of Xiaomi, emphasized that all industries should leverage AI for transformation, predicting a new trillion-dollar market through deep integration of AI with traditional industries [2] - Sohu Video plans to restart its American drama procurement, citing severe piracy as a barrier for many platforms [3] Group 3 - Vanke's stock price has dropped to a nearly 10-year low, with a significant decline of 3.66% on November 28, following a downgrade in credit ratings by S&P [3] - Taobao's flash purchase service will expand the cancellation of late fees to 60 cities by December 3, aiming to improve service for delivery riders [3] - The domestic fuel surcharge for flights will increase starting December 5, with fees rising by 10 yuan for flights under 800 kilometers and 20 yuan for longer flights [7] Group 4 - Miniso's global flagship store in Shanghai has achieved sales exceeding 100 million yuan within nine months, marking a record for global stores [7] - Major tech companies are focusing on space, with Google aiming to deploy TPU in space by 2027, while Amazon's founder predicts data centers will move to space in the next 10 to 20 years [8] - A global shortage of storage chips is worsening, with predictions of a 50% price increase by mid-2026 due to rising demand from AI infrastructure [8]

Core Insights - Spotify Technology S.A. is considered a strong long-term investment, with analysts maintaining positive ratings and price targets [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Spotify reported a 12% year-over-year growth in subscribers, reaching 281 million, and a similar 12% growth in revenue to €4.3 billion [3]. - Monthly active users increased by 11% year-over-year to 713 million [3]. Analyst Ratings - Jefferies analyst James Heaney maintained a Buy rating with an $800 price target on November 17 [1]. - Philip Securities upgraded Spotify from Reduce to Accumulate on November 10, raising the price target from $600 to $650, citing minimal churn and improved revenue stability [2]. User Engagement and Strategy - CEO Daniel Ek emphasized the importance of user fundamentals, noting that Spotify has 700 million users with high engagement levels [4]. - The company is focused on profit expansion and revenue growth through product innovation, pricing strategies, operational leverage, and advertising improvements [4].

Core Insights - The communication services sector has several oversold stocks, presenting potential buying opportunities for undervalued companies [1][2] Group 1: Oversold Stocks - Trade Desk Inc (NASDAQ:TTD) has an RSI of 29.8, with a recent stock price of $39.09 after a 27% decline over the past month [7] - Zhihu Inc – ADR (NYSE:ZH) has an RSI of 29.3, with a recent stock price of $3.71 after a 15% decline over the past month [7] - Spotify Technology SA (NYSE:SPOT) has an RSI of 28.7, with a recent stock price of $585.47 after an 8% decline over the past five days [7] Group 2: Financial Performance - Trade Desk reported quarterly earnings of 45 cents per share, exceeding the consensus estimate of 44 cents, with revenue of $739.43 million, an 18% year-over-year growth [7] - Zhihu reported a year-over-year decrease in third-quarter financial results but is on track for full-year non-GAAP breakeven [7] - Spotify reported better-than-expected third-quarter financial results, despite a recent stock price decline [7]

Core Insights - The communication services sector has several oversold stocks, presenting potential buying opportunities for undervalued companies [1][2] Group 1: Oversold Stocks - Trade Desk Inc (NASDAQ:TTD) has an RSI of 29.8, with a recent stock price of $39.09 after a 27% decline over the past month [7] - Zhihu Inc – ADR (NYSE:ZH) has an RSI of 29.3, with shares closing at $3.71 after a 15% drop in the last month [7] - Spotify Technology SA (NYSE:SPOT) has an RSI of 28.7, with a stock price of $585.47, experiencing an 8% decline over the past five days [7] Group 2: Financial Performance - Trade Desk reported quarterly earnings of 45 cents per share, exceeding the consensus estimate of 44 cents, with revenue of $739.43 million, an 18% year-over-year growth [7] - Zhihu reported a year-over-year decrease in third-quarter financial results but is on track for full-year non-GAAP breakeven [7] - Spotify's third-quarter financial results were better than expected, despite the recent stock price decline [7]

Company Performance - Zoom reported stronger than expected earnings, beating guidance and increasing its buyback program, indicating positive momentum post-pandemic [1][2] - Third quarter total revenue for Zoom increased by 4.5% year-over-year, with GAAP operating margins at 25% and non-GAAP margins at 41% [2] - Cash flows for Zoom rose by 30% year-over-year, and the number of enterprise customers spending over $100,000 increased by 9% [3] Industry Trends - Applied Materials received a target price increase from UBS, reflecting a surge in memory demand and pricing, with expectations of a 20% increase in wafer fab equipment demand by 2026 [4][5] - Snowflake's target price was raised to 280 from 270, with anticipated product revenue growth of over 25% and operating margins expected to exceed previous estimates [6][7] - Live Nation is positioned as a key player in the entertainment sector, benefiting from a strong lineup of upcoming concerts, reinforcing its status as a valuable asset [8] Consumer Goods - Monster Beverage is noted for its ability to achieve double-digit revenue growth, outperforming typical growth rates in the consumer staples sector, with a 41% increase year-to-date [9][10] - Coca-Cola is also performing well, but Monster's diversification and international expansion are highlighted as significant strengths [9]

Core Insights - The music-streaming service Spotify is expected to increase its subscription prices in the US next year, following similar price hikes in other regions [1] Group 1 - Spotify has a history of adjusting its pricing strategy, which may indicate a trend towards higher subscription costs [1] - The anticipated price increase aligns with recent subscription pricing adjustments made in various international markets [1]