Core Insights - Constellation Brands Inc. is expected to announce earnings on October 6, 2025, with a historical trend of negative one-day returns following earnings reports, where 60% of the past five years resulted in negative returns averaging -3.3% [3][4][10] - The consensus estimate for the upcoming report anticipates earnings of $3.42 per share and $2.48 billion in sales, a decline from the previous year's earnings of $4.32 per share and $2.92 billion in sales [4] - The company currently has a market capitalization of $24 billion, with $10 billion in revenue over the past twelve months and operational profits of $3.2 billion, but a net income loss of $442 million [5] Historical Performance - In the last five years, Constellation Brands recorded 20 earnings data points, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 40% of the time [10] - The median of the positive returns was 1.8%, while the median of the negative returns was -3.3% [10] Trading Strategies - Traders can utilize historical trends to establish positions before and after earnings releases, focusing on the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns [7][9] - A strategy could involve taking a long position for the next five days if the one-day post-earnings return is favorable, based on the correlation data [7]

Core Insights - Cannabis stocks experienced significant movement following President Trump's endorsement of cannabidiol (CBD) for seniors, highlighting potential health benefits [1] - Major marijuana stocks saw substantial gains, with Tilray Brands increasing by 42% and Aurora Cannabis by 25%, although some of these gains were later reversed [2] Company Overview - Constellation Brands is a significant shareholder in Canopy Growth, holding approximately 26 million shares through its shell company, which could represent about 14% of Canopy's stock if converted [3] - Constellation Brands is the third-largest beer company in the U.S., also producing high-end wine and spirits, with notable brands like Corona and Kim Crawford [4] Financial Performance - Constellation Brands has a market capitalization of $24.5 billion and has seen a year-to-date decline of 37% in 2025, underperforming competitors like Boston Beer and Molson Coors [5] - The stock is currently considered overvalued with a price-to-earnings ratio of 46.4, significantly higher than its 10-year median of 25.8 [5] Dividend Information - Constellation Brands offers a dividend yield of 3%, which is above the sector average of 1.9%, with the next payment scheduled for November 13, 2025 [6]

Core Insights - Constellation Brands, Inc. announced the retirement of Jim Bourdeau as Chief Legal Officer effective February 28, 2026, after over 10 years with the company [1][2] - Jeff LaBarge will succeed Bourdeau as Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer starting March 1, 2026 [3][4] Leadership Transition - Jim Bourdeau has been a key figure in Constellation's senior leadership, contributing to the company's growth and transformation through his legal expertise and governance [2] - Bourdeau joined Constellation in September 2014 and has overseen significant M&A activities and corporate legal matters [2][5] - Jeff LaBarge, who joined Constellation in August 2016, has held various legal leadership roles and will now lead the legal and public affairs functions [4][5] Company Overview - Constellation Brands is a leading international producer and marketer of beer, wine, and spirits, with operations in the U.S., Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy [6] - The company focuses on building beloved brands and aims to be one of the fastest-growing large consumer packaged goods companies in the U.S. [6][8] - Constellation's product portfolio includes well-known brands such as Corona Extra, Modelo Especial, and various premium wines and spirits [7]

Core Insights - Constellation Brands is expected to report quarterly earnings of $3.37 per share, a decline of 22% year-over-year, with revenues forecasted at $2.46 billion, reflecting a 15.8% decrease compared to the previous year [1] - Analysts have revised their consensus EPS estimate down by 6.5% over the past 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment of the company's financial outlook [2] - The relationship between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements is well-documented, highlighting the importance of these revisions for investor sentiment [3] Financial Metrics - Analysts project 'Net Sales- Wine and Spirits' to be $138.99 million, indicating a significant year-over-year decline of 64.2% [4] - 'Net Sales- Beer' is estimated at $2.33 billion, suggesting an 8% decrease year-over-year [5] - 'Operating Income- Wine and Spirits' is forecasted to be -$9.36 million, a stark contrast to the $70.50 million reported in the same quarter last year [5] - 'Operating Income- Beer' is expected to reach $911.22 million, down from $1.08 billion in the previous year [5] Market Performance - Over the past month, Constellation Brands' shares have declined by 11%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has increased by 3.5% [6] - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the overall market in the near future [6]

Core Insights - Constellation Brands, Inc. is set to release its second-quarter earnings results on October 6, with analysts expecting earnings of $3.41 per share, a decrease from $4.32 per share in the same period last year [1] - The company projects quarterly revenue of $2.48 billion, down from $2.92 billion a year earlier [1] Earnings Expectations - Analysts predict a decline in earnings per share from $4.32 to $3.41 year-over-year [1] - Revenue expectations for the quarter are projected at $2.48 billion, compared to $2.92 billion in the previous year [1] Analyst Ratings - Wells Fargo analyst Chris Carey has maintained an Overweight rating on Constellation Brands but has reduced the price target from $170 to $155 [2] - The company currently offers an annual dividend yield of 3.03%, translating to a semi-annual dividend of $1.02 per share, or $4.08 annually [2] Dividend Strategy - To achieve a monthly income of $500 from dividends, an investment of approximately $198,100 or around 1,471 shares is required [3] - For a more modest monthly income of $100, an investment of $39,593 or about 294 shares is necessary [3] Dividend Yield Calculation - The dividend yield is calculated by dividing the annual dividend payment by the stock's current price [4] - Changes in stock price directly affect the dividend yield; for instance, if the stock price increases, the yield decreases, and vice versa [4] Stock Performance - Constellation Brands' shares fell by 1.3%, closing at $134.67 [5]

Core Insights - Constellation Brands, Inc. is set to release its second-quarter earnings results on October 6, with analysts expecting earnings of $3.41 per share, a decrease from $4.32 per share in the same period last year [1] - The company projects quarterly revenue of $2.48 billion, down from $2.92 billion a year earlier [1][2] Financial Outlook - On September 2, Constellation Brands revised its fiscal year 2026 outlook downward due to macroeconomic challenges impacting consumer demand [2] - Following the outlook cut, Constellation shares experienced a decline of 1.3%, closing at $134.67 [2] Analyst Ratings - Wells Fargo analyst Chris Carey maintained an Overweight rating but reduced the price target from $170 to $155 [4] - Barclays analyst Lauren Lieberman downgraded the stock from Overweight to Equal-Weight, cutting the price target from $202 to $150 [4] - BMO Capital analyst Andrew Strelzik kept an Outperform rating while lowering the price target from $215 to $190 [4] - TD Cowen analyst Robert Moskow maintained a Hold rating and decreased the price target from $180 to $152 [4] - Morgan Stanley analyst Dar Mohsenian maintained an Equal-Weight rating, reducing the price target from $195 to $176 [4]

Core Insights - Constellation Brands, Inc. is facing significant challenges, including a 37% stock decline this year, contrasting with the S&P 500's 12% rise [1] - The company is set to release its quarterly earnings on October 6, 2025, with analysts predicting an EPS of $3.37 and revenue of approximately $2.48 billion, but a decline in earnings is expected for the quarter ending August 2025 [2][6] - Changing consumer habits, particularly among younger demographics, are impacting beer consumption, contributing to the company's financial challenges [4][6] Financial Metrics - Constellation Brands has a price-to-sales ratio of about 2.39, indicating investors are willing to pay $2.39 for every dollar of sales [5] - The enterprise value to sales ratio is approximately 3.53, and the enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is around 11.47 [5] - The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at about 1.59, suggesting a higher level of debt compared to equity [5][6] Market Impact - The upcoming earnings report could significantly impact STZ's stock price, with potential for a rise if expectations are exceeded, or a decline if they are not met [3]

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands (STZ) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings and revenues for the quarter ended August 2025, which could significantly influence its stock price depending on the actual results compared to estimates [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show earnings of $3.37 per share, reflecting a 22% decrease year-over-year, with revenues projected at $2.46 billion, down 15.8% from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 6.46% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate matches the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0%, suggesting no recent differing analyst views [12]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 5, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [12][13]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Constellation Brands was expected to post earnings of $3.34 per share but delivered only $3.22, resulting in a surprise of -3.59% [14]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates twice [15]. Market Reaction Factors - An earnings beat or miss alone may not dictate stock movement, as other factors can influence investor sentiment [16]. - While betting on stocks expected to beat earnings can increase success odds, Constellation Brands does not currently appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat [18].

Core Thesis - Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is viewed as a compelling investment opportunity due to its historically low valuation metrics, strong brand loyalty, and growth potential in the alcohol sector [1][3][6] Valuation Metrics - As of September 18th, STZ's share price was $133.02, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 18.50 and 11.38 respectively [1] - The company's EV/EBIT multiple is around 10.5x, the lowest in its history, even below levels seen during the 2008/09 financial crisis [3] Brand Strength and Distribution - Constellation's competitive advantage lies in its strong brand portfolio, including iconic brands like Modelo, which foster generational loyalty [4] - The company's North American distribution network enhances its market position by controlling shelf space and tap handles, assets that are scarce and aggressively defended [4] Financial Performance and Growth Drivers - Despite short-term concerns regarding consumer spending and debt, the company has shown resilient margins and strong free cash flow, projected at $2.3 billion for FY2024 [5] - Growth is driven by Modelo surpassing Bud Light as the top beer in America, premiumization trends in the alcohol sector, and international expansion of Mexican beer brands [5] Intrinsic Value and Market Mispricing - A conservative valuation approach suggests an intrinsic equity value of approximately $36 billion, close to the current market capitalization of $42–43 billion [5] - Even modest growth could push intrinsic value above $50 billion, indicating a 20–25% margin of safety [6] Long-term Investment Outlook - The combination of durable brands, strong distribution, and global growth potential presents a favorable risk/reward scenario for long-term investors [6] - The company's strong moat, disciplined management, and reliable cash flow contribute to its attractiveness as a long-term investment opportunity [6]

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands, Inc. is facing challenges with high debt levels and margin pressures, despite strong consumer demand and premium pricing in its beer, wine, and spirits portfolio [2][4]. Company Profile - Constellation Brands is a leading player in the U.S. beer, wine, and spirits market, known for brands like Corona, Modelo, and Robert Mondavi [2]. - The company benefits from consistent consumer demand and premium pricing, particularly in the beer segment, which continues to show robust growth [2]. DCF Analysis - The DCF model uses a discount rate of 10% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [3]. - Forecasted free cash flows (in billions) are projected as follows: - 2025: $2.1 → PV: $1.91 - 2026: $2.2 → PV: $1.82 - 2027: $2.3 → PV: $1.74 - 2028: $2.4 → PV: $1.66 - 2029: $2.5 → PV: $1.59 - Total present value of free cash flows is $8.72 billion [3]. Terminal Value Calculation - The terminal value, calculated using the perpetuity growth model, is $36.79 billion [3]. - Present value of terminal value is $23.43 billion [3]. Enterprise Value - The enterprise value is calculated as $32.15 billion, combining the total present value of free cash flows and the present value of terminal value [3]. Net Debt and Equity Value - Constellation Brands has cash of $0.07 billion and total debt of $12.11 billion, resulting in net debt of $12.04 billion [4]. - The equity value is calculated to be $20.11 billion, with approximately 178 million shares outstanding, leading to an intrinsic value per share of approximately $113.00 [4]. Conclusion - The DCF value per share is estimated at $113.00, while the current market price is $133.04, indicating a margin of safety of -15% [4]. - The company continues to generate strong free cash flow from its beer business but faces challenges due to significant debt impacting equity value [4].