[Table_Header] 公司点评●传媒互联网行业 2024 年 5 月 14 日 [Table_StockCode] 腾讯控股(0700) [Table_InvestRank] 推荐 (维持) 核心观点： 分析师 岳铮 ：010-8092-7630 ：yuezheng_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030006 相对恒生指数表现图 相关研究 【银河传媒互联网】公司 2023 半年报点评_腾讯控股 (0700.HK)_广告收入持续增长，视频号商业化逐步兑现 [Table_ReportTypeIndex] 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent with a target price of 480.0 HKD, up from the previous target of 445.0 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 25.7% from the current price of 381.80 HKD [3][8]. Core Insights - Tencent reported a 6% year-on-year increase in total revenue for Q1, reaching 159.5 billion RMB, aligning with expectations. Non-IFRS net income surged 54% year-on-year to 5.3 billion RMB, exceeding forecasts by 17% [3]. - The company's gross profit margin (GPM) expanded by 7.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by high-margin revenue sources such as video accounts and mini-games. This trend is expected to continue throughout FY24 [3][4]. - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% for non-IFRS net income from FY24 to FY26, with earnings forecasts raised by 6-8% [3][5]. Revenue Summary - Total revenue for Q1 was 159.5 billion RMB, with online advertising revenue increasing by 26% year-on-year to 26.5 billion RMB, driven by strong growth in WeChat advertising [4]. - Gaming revenue saw a slight decline of 1% year-on-year to 48.1 billion RMB, but domestic gaming revenue showed signs of recovery with a 3% increase in Q1 [3][4]. - Financial technology and business services (FBS) revenue grew by 7% year-on-year to 52.3 billion RMB, although this was below general expectations due to slower growth in fintech [5]. Profitability Metrics - The overall GPM for Q1 increased to 52.6%, with significant contributions from value-added services (VAS), advertising, and FBS segments [5]. - The report projects continued GPM expansion for the remainder of FY24, with non-IFRS net income expected to grow by 27% and 10% in FY24 and FY25, respectively [5]. Valuation Breakdown - The target price of 480.0 HKD is derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis, which includes valuations for various business segments such as online gaming, social networking services, advertising, fintech, and cloud services [12][13]. - The valuation for the online gaming business is set at 182.0 HKD based on a 19x PE ratio, while the advertising business is valued at 85.6 HKD based on an 18x PE ratio [12][13].

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained Rating) [13] Core Views - The company's 2024Q1 revenue reached 159.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with NON-IFRS net profit attributable to the parent company of 50.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.5% [14] - Gross margin significantly improved, reaching 52.58%, up 7.1 percentage points year-on-year and 2.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [14] - Game business is expected to recover in Q2, with new game releases and deferred revenue from existing games contributing to growth [14] - Advertising revenue grew by 26% year-on-year, driven by rapid growth in video account advertising and AI technology upgrades [14] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue increased by 7% year-on-year, with strong growth in wealth management services and video account e-commerce [14] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 2024Q1 revenue: 159.5 billion yuan, +6% YoY [14] - 2024Q1 NON-IFRS net profit: 50.3 billion yuan, +54.5% YoY [14] - Expected NON-IFRS net profit for 2024/2025/2026: 204.3/228.9/256.9 billion yuan [14] Gross Margin - 2024Q1 gross margin: 52.58%, +7.1pct YoY, +2.6pct QoQ [14] - Value-added services gross margin: 57.26%, +3.39pct YoY [14] - Advertising gross margin: 54.78%, +13.09pct YoY [14] - Financial technology and enterprise services gross margin: 45.6%, +11.1pct YoY [14] Game Business - 2024Q1 game revenue: 48.1 billion yuan, -0.4% YoY [14] - Domestic game revenue: 34.5 billion yuan, -1.7% YoY [14] - International game revenue: 13.6 billion yuan, +3% YoY [14] - Deferred revenue in current liabilities: 106.1 billion yuan, +19.9 billion yuan QoQ [14] Advertising Business - 2024Q1 advertising revenue: 26.5 billion yuan, +26% YoY [14] - Video account advertising revenue growth: +100% YoY [14] - Mini-program advertising revenue growth: +40% YoY [14] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - 2024Q1 revenue: 52.3 billion yuan, +7% YoY [14] - Wealth management services: strong growth in users and per capita investment scale [14] - Enterprise services: double-digit growth driven by cloud and video account merchant service fees [14] Valuation and Forecast - Current PE ratio: 16.01X (2024E), 14.29X (2025E), 12.73X (2026E) [14] - Expected EPS for 2024/2025/2026: 21.692/24.303/27.272 yuan [17] - ROE (attributable to parent company): 16.00% (2024E), 15.76% (2025E), 15.15% (2026E) [17] Industry Analysis - Video account total viewing time increased by over 80% YoY, indicating significant future commercialization potential [14] - Advertising spending in gaming, internet services, and consumer goods industries showed significant growth [14] - Financial technology sector benefited from increased user engagement and investment scale in wealth management services [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company with a target price of HK$480.00, up from a previous target of HK$445.00, indicating a potential upside of 25.7% from the current price of HK$381.80 [1]. Core Insights - The company's quality growth strategy is expected to drive strong earnings growth, with non-IFRS net income projected to grow at a CAGR of 15% over FY24-26E. The report raises FY24-26E earnings forecasts by 6-8% [1]. - Total revenue for 1Q24 increased by 6% YoY to RMB159.5 billion, with a gross profit margin (GPM) expansion of 7.1 percentage points YoY to 52.6% [1][2]. - The report highlights a recovery in domestic games gross receipts and strong growth in advertising revenue, particularly from Weixin ad properties [1][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 609.0 billion in FY23A to RMB 661.9 billion in FY24E, with adjusted net profit expected to rise from RMB 157.7 billion in FY23A to RMB 199.5 billion in FY24E [2][26]. - The adjusted EPS is forecasted to increase from RMB 16.66 in FY23A to RMB 20.60 in FY24E, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2][26]. - Gross margin is expected to improve from 51.1% in FY23A to 53.0% in FY24E, indicating enhanced profitability [2][26]. Segment Performance - Online games revenue is projected to recover, with a slight decline of 2% YoY in 1Q24, but expected to rebound in subsequent quarters [1][3]. - Advertising revenue grew by 26% YoY to RMB 26.5 billion in 1Q24, driven by high-margin Weixin ad properties [1][3]. - Business services revenue increased by 7% YoY to RMB 52.3 billion in 1Q24, supported by strong growth in cloud revenue [1][3]. Valuation Breakdown - The target price of HK$480.0 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, with HK$182.0 attributed to the online games business, HK$85.6 to the advertising business, and HK$20.7 to the cloud business [4][5][6]. - The valuation reflects a premium for the company's strong market position and growth potential in various segments [4][5][6].

. . . . . . Good day and good evening. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Tencent Holdings Limited 2024 First Quarter Results Announcement Webinar. I'm Wendy Huang from Tencent IR team. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the management presentation, there will be a question and answer session. For participants who dial in by phone, If you wish to ask a question, please press five on your telephone to raise your hand. If you are accessing from the Tencent meeting or group meet ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's total revenue for Q1 2024 was RMB 160 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 3% [41] - Gross profit reached RMB 84 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 23% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8% [41] - Non-IFRS operating profit was RMB 59 billion, up 30% year-on-year and 19% quarter-on-quarter [41] - Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 50 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 54% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 18% [41] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The gaming segment saw a mixed performance, with flagship games like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" experiencing revenue declines in Q1, but showing signs of recovery in March with year-on-year growth [44][45] - The advertising revenue from online ads was RMB 26.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26%, driven by increased engagement and AI ad targeting [26] - The revenue from financial technology and business services was RMB 52 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 7% [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic game revenue grew by 3% year-on-year, indicating a general recovery trend [42] - International game revenue also increased by 3% to RMB 14 billion, remaining stable in constant currency terms [42] - The video account user engagement time grew by 80% year-on-year, with video accounts now having double the engagement time compared to Moments [38] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on high-quality revenue sources, including video accounts, mini-games, and e-commerce technology service fees, to drive growth and operational profit [45] - There is an ongoing commitment to repurchase shares, with plans to buy back over RMB 100 billion worth of shares in 2024 while also increasing dividends [45] - The company is investing in AI, platform enhancements, and high-production-value content to support future growth [45] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ongoing recovery of game revenues and the positive impact of structural changes on reducing business risks [31] - The company anticipates that the growth rate of advertising revenue will slow down in subsequent quarters, aligning more closely with market consensus expectations [5] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a focus on high-quality growth strategies and the potential for sustained profit margins across various business segments [32] Other Important Information - The company upgraded its advertising technology platform to help advertisers manage campaigns more effectively, resulting in a 100% year-on-year increase in video account ad revenue [2] - The company is seeing strong growth in wealth management services, with an increase in user numbers and average fund investments [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does the company view the future potential and growth plans for key games? - Management noted that they have been updating key games successfully and are confident in the ongoing process, learning from past experiences [6] Question: What are the expectations for profit growth and margin trends in the coming years? - Management clarified that they are pursuing a strategy of investing in platform development and user experience while gradually achieving profitability [6] Question: How does the company plan to leverage AI in its advertising business? - Management believes that AI will significantly enhance ad targeting and management, leading to improved click-through rates and overall ad revenue growth [29]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings exceeded analyst profit expectations, driven by strong performance in high-margin businesses despite a slight decline in video game revenue [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent's revenue grew by 6% year-over-year, while gross margin expanded by 8 percentage points from 45% to 53%, leading to a 23% increase in non-GAAP gross profits and a 54% rise in adjusted net income [2]. - The company reported adjusted net profits of $7.1 billion for the last quarter, annualizing to $28.1 billion, with a market cap of $486 billion [5]. Group 2: Business Segments - The online advertising segment saw impressive growth of 26%, with video account usage increasing by 80% over the past year [3]. - Video subscriptions grew by 8% and music subscriptions increased by 20%, marking their best growth figures in a while [3]. - Business services, including cloud computing, experienced mid-teens growth, indicating a recovery in cloud services relative to U.S. peers [3]. Group 3: Gaming Segment Insights - Although value-added services, including gaming revenue, declined by 0.9%, international gaming gross receipts rose by 34%, and domestic gaming gross receipts increased by 3% [4].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q1 2024 was RMB 160 billion, up 6% year-on-year and 3% quarter-on-quarter [7] - Gross profit increased to RMB 84 billion, up 23% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter [7] - Non-IFRS operating profit rose to RMB 59 billion, up 30% year-on-year and 19% quarter-on-quarter [7] - Non-IFRS net profit attributable to equity holders was RMB 50 billion, up 54% year-on-year and 18% quarter-on-quarter [7][24] - Diluted EPS increased to RMB 4.386, up 66% year-on-year [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Value-Added Services (VAS) represented 49% of total revenue, with social networks at 19%, domestic games at 22%, and international games at 8% [9] - Online advertising revenue was RMB 26.5 billion, up 26% year-on-year [18] - Fintech and business services revenue was RMB 52 billion, up 7% year-on-year [20] - Domestic games revenue decreased by 2% year-on-year to RMB 35 billion, while international games revenue increased by 3% year-on-year to RMB 14 billion [12][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Combined MAU of Weixin and WeChat groups grew to 1.36 billion [8] - Video accounts user time spent grew 80% year-on-year [15] - Mini games gross receipts increased by 30% year-on-year [15] - Tencent Cloud media services achieved over 50% year-on-year revenue growth [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on returning excess capital to shareholders through a buyback plan of over HK 100 billion in 2024 and increased dividends [6] - Investments are being made in AI technology, platform enhancements, and high production value content [6] - The strategy includes rejuvenating key game titles and leveraging AI for better user engagement and ad targeting [31][38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the recovery of game revenues and the effectiveness of proactive adjustments made to key titles [6][12] - The operating environment remains mixed, with advertising sentiment being challenging but expected to improve [37] - The company anticipates continued growth in high-margin revenue streams and a positive mix shift in business segments [40][50] Other Important Information - The overall gross margin improved to 53%, up seven percentage points year-on-year [25] - Free cash flow was RMB 51.9 billion, stable year-on-year and up 52% quarter-on-quarter [28] - The company is investing heavily in AI and SaaS products, with WeCom revenue tripling year-on-year [22][60] Q&A Session Summary Question: Online games rejuvenation strategy and buyback pace - Management highlighted the ongoing rejuvenation of key games and the importance of team adjustments for success [31][32] - Buyback strategy remains consistent regardless of share price fluctuations, as the current price is still considered attractive [33] Question: Advertising business momentum and market share - Management noted mixed advertiser sentiment but expects to gain market share through ad tech upgrades and AI deployment [37][38] Question: Gaming revenue growth and App Store revenue-sharing - Deferred revenue growth is a positive indicator for future gaming revenue, with no significant risks identified [44][45] Question: New game launch strategy - The focus is on fewer but higher-quality new games, with metrics like player engagement being prioritized over initial hype [48][49] Question: Wealth management strategy and investment - The strategy involves building trust in the payment platform and increasing the number of use cases for wealth management services [63]

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[Table_StockNameRptType] 腾讯控股（00700） 公司研究/港股点评 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 证券研究报告 ⚫ 风险提示 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 2 / 5 证券研究报告 资料来源：Bloomberg，华安证券研究所 [Table_CompanyRptType1] 腾讯控股（00700） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|----------------------------------------|---------------------------------|-------|----------------| | 利润表 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 百万元 \n2026E | | 营业收入 | | 609,015 655,903 710,631 769,596 | | | | 营业成本 | | -315,906 -312,176 -341,926 | | -369,336 | | 毛 利 | | 293,109 343,727 368,705 400,260 | | | ...