Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The report anticipates Tencent Holdings Limited's Q1 2024 revenue to be approximately 158.5 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.66% [6]. - The report highlights that the value-added services revenue is expected to decline by 1.84% year-on-year to 77.9 billion RMB, while advertising revenue is projected to increase by 18.76% to 24.9 billion RMB [6]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to rise by 31.59% year-on-year to around 42.8 billion RMB [6]. - The report notes a strong recovery in game revenue growth, with expectations for overseas game revenue to show single-digit growth year-on-year [6]. - The advertising business is expected to continue optimizing profit margins due to clear commercialization paths and technological support, with video account user engagement increasing [6]. - The cloud business will focus on cost reduction and efficiency while maintaining healthy market share growth [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Expectations - Q1 2024 revenue is projected at 158.5 billion RMB, a 5.66% increase year-on-year [6]. - Value-added services revenue is expected to decline by 1.84% to 77.9 billion RMB [6]. - Advertising revenue is forecasted to grow by 18.76% to 24.9 billion RMB [6]. - Non-GAAP net profit is anticipated to increase by 31.59% to approximately 42.8 billion RMB [6]. Game and Advertising Insights - Game revenue is expected to recover, with domestic game revenue anticipated to stabilize after a high comparative base from the previous year [6]. - Overseas game revenue is projected to show single-digit growth year-on-year [6]. - The advertising business is expected to benefit from improved user engagement and collaboration with Douyin, enhancing advertising effectiveness [6]. Cloud and Financial Services - The cloud business will prioritize cost reduction and efficiency while focusing on market share growth [6]. - Financial services are expected to see margin improvements driven by recovering macro demand and increased technology service fees from video accounts [6].

Group 1 - Tencent faced challenges in 2022, including a Covid-induced slowdown in the Chinese economy and a tougher gaming market [1] - In the first quarter, Tencent exceeded analyst expectations for revenue and profit, driven by improved sales in its core gaming business and better profitability in advertising and business services [1] - Tencent's revenue for the March quarter was 159.5 billion Chinese yuan ($22 billion), surpassing the expected 158.4 billion yuan [1] - Profit attributable to equity holders was 41.9 billion yuan, exceeding the anticipated 36.64 billion yuan [1] - Tencent's adjusted net profit increased by 62% year-on-year, marking the fastest growth since the March quarter of 2021 [1] - Revenue grew by 6% year-on-year [1]

Cloud Services and Market Leadership - Tencent Cloud's audio and video solutions have attracted more domestic and international clients, particularly in the media, entertainment, and live streaming industries, and have been ranked as the leader in the Chinese market by IDC for six consecutive years[1] Revenue and Profit Growth - Total revenue for Q1 2024 increased by 6% year-over-year to RMB 159.5 billion, with value-added services contributing 49% of total revenue, down from 53% in the same period last year[4] - Fintech and business services revenue grew by 7% year-over-year to RMB 52.3 billion in Q1 2024, driven by strong growth in wealth management services and video account merchant service fees[5] - The gross profit of fintech and business services increased by 42% year-over-year to RMB 23.9 billion in Q1 2024, with the gross margin rising from 34% to 46%[7] - Net profit attributable to equity holders of the company increased by 62% year-over-year to RMB 41.9 billion in Q1 2024, while non-IFRS net profit increased by 54% to RMB 50.3 billion[9] - Revenue from value-added services decreased by 0.9% year-over-year to RMB 78.6 billion in Q1 2024, but gross profit increased by 21% quarter-over-quarter to RMB 45 billion, with the gross margin rising from 54% to 57%[13] - Net profit for the period increased to RMB 4,265.1 million in Q1 2024, up from RMB 2,639.4 million in Q1 2023, representing a growth of 61.6%[26] - Total comprehensive income for the period rose to RMB 5,291.9 million in Q1 2024, compared to RMB 2,478.9 million in Q1 2023, a significant increase of 113.5%[26] - Equity attributable to the company's shareholders increased to RMB 51,673 million in Q1 2024, up from RMB 23,612 million in Q1 2023, reflecting a 118.8% growth[26] - The company's equity holders' profit attributable for the three months ended March 31, 2024, was RMB 41,889 million, compared to RMB 25,838 million for the same period in 2023[100] - Diluted earnings per share for the three months ended March 31, 2024, was RMB 4.386, up from RMB 2.639 for the same period in 2023[100] Financial Position and Cash Flow - The company's cash and cash equivalents stood at RMB 161 billion as of March 31, 2024, with total cash and equivalents including term deposits reaching RMB 445.3 billion[23] - The company's net cash position improved to RMB 92.5 billion as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 54.7 billion at the end of 2023[23] - Free cash flow generated in Q1 2024 was RMB 51.9 billion[51] - The company's total equity at the end of Q1 2024 stood at RMB 916,769 million, compared to RMB 873,681 million at the beginning of the year, showing a 4.9% increase[28] - The company's retained earnings increased to RMB 857,015 million at the end of Q1 2024, up from RMB 813,911 million at the beginning of the year[28] - Non-controlling interests increased to RMB 68,182 million at the end of Q1 2024, compared to RMB 65,090 million at the beginning of the year[28] Expenses and Costs - Transaction costs increased to RMB 34,603 million in Q1 2024, up from RMB 33,271 million in Q1 2023[65] - Employee benefits expenses decreased to RMB 26,032 million in Q1 2024, down from RMB 27,299 million in Q1 2023[65] - R&D expenses reached RMB 15,678 million in Q1 2024, compared to RMB 15,181 million in Q1 2023[65] - Amortization of intangible assets decreased to RMB 6,897 million in Q1 2024, down from RMB 9,442 million in Q1 2023[65] - Media content amortization was RMB 6,280 million in Q1 2024, down from RMB 8,804 million in Q1 2023[66] - Subsidies and tax refunds decreased to RMB 1,053 million in Q1 2024, down from RMB 2,740 million in Q1 2023[68] - The total remuneration cost for the three months ended March 31, 2024, was RMB 26 billion, compared to RMB 27.3 billion for the same period in 2023[145] Investments and Financial Instruments - Gains from deemed disposal of investments were RMB 3,982 million in Q1 2024, up from RMB 964 million in Q1 2023[69] - Fair value losses on financial instruments were RMB 1,041 million in Q1 2024, up from RMB 213 million in Q1 2023[70] - Investments in associates increased to RMB 250,954 million at the end of Q1 2024, up from RMB 245,659 million at the end of Q1 2023[80] - Fair value changes in financial assets measured at fair value through other comprehensive income were RMB 1,558.6 million in Q1 2024, down from RMB 3,559.5 million in Q1 2023[83] - The company's investment in associates had a fair value of approximately RMB 300.8 billion as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 351.594 billion as of December 31, 2023[102] - Impairment provisions for associates with signs of impairment totaled RMB 787 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 271 million for the same period in 2023[103] - The company's financial assets measured at fair value through profit or loss totaled RMB 226,228 million as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 226,048 million as of December 31, 2023[104] - The company's investment in listed enterprises under financial assets measured at fair value through profit or loss was RMB 13,740 million as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 11,495 million as of December 31, 2023[104] - The company's investment in unlisted enterprises under financial assets measured at fair value through profit or loss was RMB 190,259 million as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 190,698 million as of December 31, 2023[104] Tax and Financial Reporting - The company's current tax expense for the three months ended March 31, 2024, was RMB 11,987 million, compared to RMB 9,148 million for the same period in 2023[97] - The company's deferred tax expense for the three months ended March 31, 2024, was RMB 2,182 million, compared to RMB 2,317 million for the same period in 2023[97] - The company's total tax expense for the three months ended March 31, 2024, was RMB 14,169 million, compared to RMB 11,465 million for the same period in 2023[97] - The company's subsidiaries in Mainland China enjoy preferential corporate income tax rates of 15% and 10%[45] - The interim financial data has not been audited but has been reviewed by the auditor[58] - International Accounting Standards (IAS) are followed for financial reporting[190] Share Repurchases and Equity - The company repurchased and canceled shares worth RMB 8,941 million during Q1 2024[28] - The company repurchased a total of 51,040,000 shares at a total cost of approximately HKD 14.8 billion (excluding expenses) during the three months ended March 31, 2024[143] - The total number of share options as of March 31, 2024, was 114,697,849, with an average exercise price of HKD 346.17[111] - The number of reward shares increased from 132,989,249 at the beginning of the period to 145,478,862 at the end of March 31, 2024[113] - The number of share options exercised during the period was 17,411,183, with an average exercise price of HKD 232.33[111] - The number of reward shares granted during the period was 29,839,111, compared to 16,267,451 in the same period last year[113] - The company's total share options exercisable as of March 31, 2024, were 57,731,594, with an average exercise price of HKD 357.90[111] - The company's shares were repurchased at prices ranging from HKD 271.20 to HKD 308.60 per share during the three months ended March 31, 2024[130] - The company's total repurchase cost for January 2024 was HKD 9.824 billion, and for March 2024, it was HKD 5.010 billion[130] - The company's total repurchase cost for the three months ended March 31, 2024, was HKD 14.835 billion[130] Borrowings and Liabilities - Long-term USD bank loans (non-current portion) amounted to USD 10,997.3 million as of March 31, 2024, with interest rates ranging from SOFR + 0.80% to 0.95%[122] - Short-term RMB bank loans increased to RMB 11,116 million as of March 31, 2024, with interest rates ranging from 1.60% to 3.65%[123] - The company's total borrowings as of March 31, 2024, were RMB 201,191 million, compared to RMB 197,356 million at the end of 2023[122] - Long-term RMB bank loans (non-current portion) decreased to RMB 4,318.4 million as of March 31, 2024, from RMB 4,600 million at the end of 2023[122] - The company's long-term USD notes payable (non-current portion) amounted to RMB 130.974 billion as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 137.101 billion as of December 31, 2023[140] - The current portion of long-term USD notes payable was RMB 20.569 billion as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 14.161 billion as of December 31, 2023[140] - The total principal amount of notes payable and applicable interest rates remained consistent at USD 7.5 billion and USD 20.7 billion, respectively, as of March 31, 2024, and December 31, 2023[126] - The company's notes payable are unsecured, with interest rates ranging from 1.375% to 4.700%[141] Other Financial Metrics - EBITDA for Q1 2024 was RMB 65.1 billion, up from RMB 53.9 billion in the same period last year, while adjusted EBITDA increased to RMB 69.3 billion from RMB 59.5 billion[19] - Revenue for the three months ended March 31, 2024, was RMB 149.986 billion[34] - Gross profit for the period was RMB 68.182 billion[34] - Operating profit stood at RMB 38.042 billion after adjustments[34] - Net profit attributable to equity holders was RMB 26.394 billion[34] - Disposal gains net of related expenses amounted to RMB 5.059 billion[41] - Intangible asset amortization related to acquisitions was RMB 1.249 billion[39] - Donations for SSV and CPP projects totaled RMB 12 million[42] - Basic earnings per share were RMB 4.479[48] - Total equity as of January 1, 2023, was RMB 782,860 million, with retained earnings of RMB 705,981 million[55] - Comprehensive income for the period was RMB 24,789 million, including a net profit of RMB 25,838 million[55] - Revenue from value-added services for the three months ending March 31, 2024, was RMB 78,629 million, with a gross profit of RMB 45,022 million[64] - Revenue from fintech and business services for the three months ending March 31, 2024, was RMB 52,302 million, with a gross profit of RMB 23,851 million[64] - Total revenue for the three months ending March 31, 2024, was RMB 159,501 million, with a total gross profit of RMB 83,870 million[64] - Revenue from value-added services for the three months ending March 31, 2023, was RMB 79,337 million, with a gross profit of RMB 42,739 million[64] - Revenue from fintech and business services for the three months ending March 31, 2023, was RMB 48,701 million, with a gross profit of RMB 16,801 million[64] - Total revenue for the three months ending March 31, 2023, was RMB 149,986 million, with a total gross profit of RMB 68,182 million[64] - The company's shares have been listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange since June 16, 2004[57] - Accounts payable aged 0 to 30 days increased to RMB 106,962 million as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 94,537 million at the end of 2023[121] - The total number of employees as of March 31, 2024, was 104,787, compared to 106,221 as of March 31, 2023[144] - Daily active accounts (DAU) data is highlighted as a key metric[181] - Local market games refer to the company's operations in the Chinese market, excluding Hong Kong and Macau[182] - Earnings per share (EPS) is a significant financial metric mentioned[185] - Financial technology (FinTech) is a focus area for the company[186] - The company's financial assets include other comprehensive income and profit/loss items[187][188] - The company uses Hong Kong dollars (HKD) as its reporting currency[189] - International Data Corporation (IDC) is referenced as a data source[191] - Monthly active accounts (MAU) data is another key metric[194] - The company's financial data is reported in US dollars (USD) for international markets[198]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of 476 HKD, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [12][19]. Core Views - The overall performance for Q1 2024 is projected to show a revenue increase of 4% year-on-year, with gross profit expected to rise by 16% and Non-IFRS net profit anticipated to grow by 28% [12][6]. - The gaming business is expected to recover starting from Q2 2024, driven by the launch of new games and a favorable revenue structure that enhances gross margins [6][12]. - The advertising segment is projected to grow by 18% year-on-year in Q1 2024, supported by the healthy growth of video account traffic and the effective implementation of AI technology [13][12]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Q1 2024 revenue is estimated at approximately 156.1 billion HKD, reflecting a 4.1% year-on-year increase, while gross profit is expected to be around 79.3 billion HKD, with a gross margin of 50.8%, up 5.3 percentage points year-on-year [12][6]. - Non-IFRS operating profit is projected to be about 54.1 billion HKD, a 16% increase year-on-year, with an operating margin of 34.7% [12][6]. Gaming Business - The gaming revenue is expected to decline by 2.5% year-on-year in Q1 2024, with domestic revenue down by 4% and overseas revenue up by 2% [12][6]. - The report anticipates a recovery in gaming growth starting in Q2 2024, aided by the release of major new titles and improved performance of existing long-term games [6][12]. Advertising Segment - The advertising revenue is forecasted to grow by 18% year-on-year in Q1 2024, driven by the expansion of video account advertising and the positive impact of AI technology on ad effectiveness [13][12]. - The gross margin for advertising has improved significantly, rising from 36.7% in Q1 2022 to 56.8% in Q4 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 47% in 2023 [13][12]. Shareholder Returns - The company announced a cash dividend of approximately 32 billion HKD for 2023, representing 19% of Non-IFRS net profit, and plans to repurchase shares exceeding 100 billion HKD in 2024 [5][12]. - The potential total shareholder return, considering dividends and share buybacks, is estimated to be around 4.1-4.2% [5][12].

2024Q1，我们预计腾讯实现营收 1570 亿元，同比增长 5%。预计一季度网络广告稳健增长，游戏业务高基 数下仍在恢复。具体来看：①游戏方面，2024Q1 新品上线节奏较缓叠加去年春节期间同期高基数，预计收 入同比下滑 2%；从节奏上看，基数效应叠加重磅游戏《DNF》手游上线，预计腾讯游戏二季度开始恢复； ②广告方面，预计视频号将带动广告收入同比增长 18%；③金融科技及企业服务收入预计同比增长 7%，增 速环比放缓主要系去年同期为高基数。 2 图6: 腾讯金融科技及企业服务收入及增速（亿元、%) 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 证券研究报告 | 2024年04月23日 2024Q1，我们预计腾讯实现营收 1570 亿元，同比增长 5%。预计一季度网络广告稳健增长，游戏业务高基 数下仍在恢复。具体来看：①游戏方面，2024Q1 新品上线节奏较缓叠加去年春节期间同期高基数，预计收 入同比下滑 2%；从节奏上看，基数效应叠加重磅游戏《DNF》手游上线，预计腾讯游戏二季度开始恢复。 从具体游戏来看，我们观察到《王者荣耀》、《和平精英》在基数效应下，流水下滑。但中腰产品商业化 进展良好。除此以外，根 ...

隐证券 公 司 研 究 传媒/社交Ⅱ 腾讯控股（00700.HK） 2024 年 04 月 23 日 "DNF 手游"定档 5 月 21 日，助力游戏业务成长 投资评级：买入（维持） "DNF 手游"备受用户期待，上线表现可期，维持"买入"评级 储备游戏丰富，有望驱动游戏业务持续增长 视频号商业化进展迅速，仍有较大变现空间 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|-------------|-----------------------|---------------------|------------------|---------| | 指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入 ( 百万元 ) | 554,552 | 609,015 | 692,137 | 773,248 | 856,509 | | YOY(%) | (1.0) | 9.8 | 13.6 | 11.7 | 10.8 | | 净利润 ( 百万元 ) | 188,243 | 1 ...

Group 1 - The company specializes in medium and small-cap markets while also providing updates on blue-chip companies, commodities, and broader investment stories [2] - The news team delivers insights across various sectors including biotech and pharma, mining and natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging digital and EV technologies [2] - Proactive is committed to adopting technology to enhance workflows, utilizing automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring all content is edited and authored by humans [2] Group 2 - The company has a global presence with bureaus and studios located in key finance and investing hubs such as London, New York, Toronto, Vancouver, Sydney, and Perth [1] - The team consists of experienced news journalists who produce independent and actionable business and finance news content for a global investment audience [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (0700 HK) with a target price of 430 HKD [68][117] Core Views - Tencent's shareholder return ratio has significantly increased from 11%-14% in 2016-2021 to 44%-47% in 2022-2023, driven by increased share buybacks and dividend payouts [3] - Tencent's 23Q4 Non-IFRS net profit reached 42 7 billion yuan, up 44% YoY, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates of 419 7 billion yuan [9] - Video account advertising and live e-commerce are expected to accelerate commercialization in 2024, with video account live streaming GMV growing 3x YoY in 2023 [117] Financial Performance - Tencent's 23Q4 revenue rose 15% YoY to 544 billion yuan in the fintech and business services segment, driven by commercial payment recovery and cloud service growth [66] - The company's 23Q4 advertising revenue grew 21% YoY to 298 billion yuan, outperforming the industry average, mainly due to strong demand for video account ads [83] - Tencent's 23Q4 gaming revenue in the domestic market declined 3% YoY to 270 billion yuan, impacted by seasonal weakness in flagship titles like Honor of Kings and Peacekeeper Elite [23] Shareholder Returns - Tencent's share buyback amount in 24Q1 reached 14 8 billion HKD, up 220% YoY, with plans to increase total buybacks to over 100 billion HKD in 2024 [147] - The company's shareholder return ratio (buybacks + dividends) as a percentage of Non-IFRS net profit increased from 11%-14% in 2016-2021 to 44%-47% in 2022-2023 [3] Video Account Ecosystem - Video account live streaming GMV grew 3x YoY in 2023, with apparel and jewelry categories contributing 38% and 15 8 billion yuan respectively to total GMV [18] - Tencent launched new monetization features for video account creators, including a revenue sharing program for accounts with 100+ followers and daily payout options [17] - The platform introduced lower service fees (1%) and shipping insurance subsidies during the 2023 Double 11 shopping festival to attract more merchants [20] Gaming Business - Tencent's domestic gaming revenue declined 3% YoY in 23Q4, mainly due to seasonal weakness in Honor of Kings and Peacekeeper Elite [23] - The company has a strong pipeline of new games, including DNF Mobile, Delta Force Hawk Ops, and Assassin's Creed Jade, expected to launch in 2024 [32][41] - Tencent's overseas gaming revenue remained stable in 23Q4, with PUBG Mobile generating 3 3 billion yuan in revenue, up 6% YoY [38] Cloud and Fintech - Tencent Cloud achieved 27% YoY revenue growth in 23Q4, with a 16% market share in China's cloud infrastructure services market [67] - The company's fintech services grew 15% YoY in 23Q4, driven by recovery in offline commercial payments and growth in wealth management and consumer lending services [66] Content Ecosystem - Tencent Video's paid subscribers reached 117 million in 23Q4, with exclusive dramas like Blossoms Shanghai and Heart's Question topping viewership charts [48] - Tencent Music Entertainment's online music paying users grew 20 6% YoY to 106 million in 23Q4, with ARPPU reaching a record high of 10 7 yuan [81]

2% 04/23 06/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 02/24 04/24 腾讯控股 恒生指数 -30% -24% -17% -11% -4% 盈利预测：注：港币兑人民币汇率采用 0.91:1。 [Table_Page] 跟踪研究|媒体Ⅱ [Table_Title] 【广发 传 媒 & 海 外 】 腾 讯 控 股 24Q1 前瞻：广告和金融企服业务驱动利润 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 能稳健，加大回购有效提振股价，游戏在下半年或带来估值催化。我们 调整 24~25 年收入预测至 6637、7217 亿元，同增 9.0%/8.7%，经调整 归母净利预计为 1826、2036 亿元，同增 15.8%、11.5%。基于 SOTP 法计算合理价值为 485.88 港元/股。维持买入评级。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | [Table_ 单位 Finance] : 人 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研究报告称，维持腾讯控股(00700)“买入”评级，将于5月14日公布2024财年第一季业绩。预计其收入将同比温和增长5%至1570亿元人民币;毛利率和经调整净利润率分别达到市场预期的49.7%和27.3%，目标价407港元。 该行认为，腾讯集团专注高质增长策略为未来的财务状况提供了明显的确定因素，预计第二财季至第四财季的收入同比加快增长，加上强劲的资本回报计划。 ...