Group 1: Earnings Performance - Trip.com reported quarterly earnings of $1.25 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.91 per share, and up from $1 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 37.36% [1] - The company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates in all four of the last quarters [2] - Trip.com posted revenues of $2.26 billion for the quarter ended September 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.93%, compared to year-ago revenues of $1.88 billion [2] Group 2: Stock Performance - Trip.com shares have increased approximately 65.2% since the beginning of the year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 23.1% [4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.57 on revenues of $1.71 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $3.36 on revenues of $7.35 billion [8] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The Leisure and Recreation Services industry, to which Trip.com belongs, is currently ranked in the top 8% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook [9] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, suggesting that investors should monitor these revisions closely [6]

Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Trip.com Group reported a net revenue of RMB 15.9 billion (USD 2.3 billion), representing a 16% year-over-year increase, driven by strong travel demand[8]. - The company's net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 6.8 billion (USD 970 million), compared to RMB 4.6 billion in the same period of 2023, marking a significant increase[11]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2024 was RMB 5.7 billion (USD 880 million), up from RMB 4.6 billion in Q3 2023[11]. - The revenue from accommodation bookings was RMB 6.8 billion (USD 969 million), a 22% increase year-over-year, while transportation ticketing revenue was RMB 5.7 billion (USD 850 million), up 5% year-over-year[8]. - Total revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2023, was RMB 13,751 million, a decrease of 5.5% compared to RMB 14,556 million for the same period in 2022[26]. - Net income attributable to Trip.com Group Limited for the three months ended September 30, 2023, was RMB 4,615 million, representing a 20.5% increase from RMB 3,833 million in the same period of the previous year[31]. - The gross profit for the three months ended September 30, 2023, was RMB 11,273 million, with a gross margin of approximately 82%[26]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the three months ended September 30, 2023, was RMB 4,622 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 34%[39]. - The company reported a basic earnings per share of RMB 7.05 for the three months ended September 30, 2023, compared to RMB 5.84 for the same period in 2022, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 20.7%[32]. - The company expects total revenue for the three months ending June 30, 2024, to be approximately RMB 12,788 million, indicating a projected growth of 6.5% compared to the same period in 2023[26]. Operational Highlights - Hotel and flight bookings on the international OTA platform grew by over 60% year-over-year, with outbound hotel and flight bookings fully recovering to 120% of pre-pandemic levels[5][6]. - Research and development expenses for Q3 2024 were RMB 3.6 billion (USD 519 million), a 2% increase year-over-year, reflecting rising costs associated with R&D personnel[9]. - Sales and marketing expenses rose to RMB 3.4 billion (USD 482 million), a 23% increase year-over-year, due to higher costs related to sales and marketing activities[9]. - Research and development expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2023, were RMB 3,577 million, an increase of 19.5% from RMB 2,993 million in the same period of the previous year[26]. - The company reported a significant increase in user data, with a total of 5,589 million in accommodation bookings for the three months ended September 30, 2023[26]. - Trip.com Group Limited is focusing on market expansion and new product development to enhance its competitive position in the travel industry[26]. Financial Position - As of September 30, 2024, the company had cash and cash equivalents totaling RMB 86.9 billion (USD 12.4 billion)[12]. - Ctrip Group reported a total asset increase from RMB 219,137 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 244,300 million by September 30, 2024, representing an increase of approximately 11.5%[22]. - The company's cash and cash equivalents decreased from RMB 43,983 million to RMB 41,982 million, a decline of about 4.5%[22]. - Total liabilities rose from RMB 96,131 million to RMB 104,173 million, indicating an increase of approximately 8.5%[24]. - Shareholders' equity increased from RMB 122,184 million to RMB 138,410 million, reflecting a growth of around 13.3%[24]. Strategic Outlook - The company expressed optimism about the continued growth of the travel industry, driven by consumer confidence and a surge in travel enthusiasm[7]. - Trip.com Group is committed to leveraging AI technology as a core driver for shaping the future of the global travel industry[7]. - Ctrip Group's mission is to provide a comprehensive travel platform for both Chinese tourists and international travelers, emphasizing high-quality travel experiences[20]. - The company operates under several brands, including Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, and Skyscanner, aiming to inspire travel exploration and support users throughout their journeys[20]. - Ctrip Group's reliance on partnerships with suppliers and competitors poses risks, particularly in managing growth rates and strategic investments[19]. - The company has faced challenges related to economic fluctuations and regulatory dynamics affecting its operations in various jurisdictions[19]. - Ctrip Group's financial data includes non-GAAP measures to provide a clearer picture of its operational performance, although these measures may not align with other companies' non-GAAP data[19].

Core Insights - Trip.com Group Limited reported strong financial results for Q3 2024, with net revenue increasing by 16% year-over-year to RMB15.9 billion (US$2.3 billion) [2][3] - The company experienced robust growth in international businesses, with outbound hotel and air reservations reaching approximately 120% of pre-COVID levels from 2019 [2][3] - The travel industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by increasing consumer confidence and advancements in AI technology [2] Financial Performance - Net income for Q3 2024 was RMB6.8 billion (US$970 million), up from RMB4.6 billion in Q3 2023 [3] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was RMB5.7 billion (US$808 million), an increase from RMB4.6 billion in the same period last year [3] - Accommodation reservation revenue rose by 22% year-over-year to RMB6.8 billion (US$969 million), while transportation ticketing revenue increased by 5% to RMB5.7 billion (US$805 million) [3] Revenue Breakdown - Packaged-tour revenue grew by 17% year-over-year to RMB1.6 billion (US$222 million) [3] - Corporate travel revenue increased by 11% to RMB656 million (US$93 million) [3] - The cost of revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB2.8 billion (US$399 million), reflecting a 13% increase from the previous year [3] Operational Highlights - The company noted a significant increase in accommodation reservations, with a 32% rise from the previous quarter [3] - Sales and marketing expenses rose by 23% year-over-year to RMB3.4 billion (US$482 million), driven by promotional activities [3] - As of September 30, 2024, the company had cash and cash equivalents totaling RMB86.9 billion (US$12.4 billion) [3]

International Travel Recovery - International outbound hotel and air reservations rebounded to approximately 120% of the pre-COVID level for the same period in 2019[1] - Air ticket and hotel reservations on the Company's international OTA brand increased by over 60% year-over-year[1] Financial Performance - Net revenue for the third quarter of 2024 grew by 16% year-over-year to RMB15.9 billion (US$2.3 billion)[2] - Net income for the third quarter of 2024 was RMB6.8 billion (US$970 million), a 48% increase from the same period in 2023[1] - Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of 2024 was RMB5.7 billion (US$808 million), a 24% increase from the same period in 2023[1] - Total revenue for Q3 2024 reached RMB 15,900 million (USD 2,265 million), a 24.3% increase compared to Q3 2023[10] - Net income attributable to Trip.com Group Limited for Q3 2024 was RMB 6,765 million (USD 962 million), a 46.6% increase year-over-year[11] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2024 was RMB 5,680 million (USD 808 million), with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 36%[12] - Non-GAAP net income attributable to Trip.com Group Limited for Q3 2024 was RMB 5,963 million (USD 847 million)[13] - Non-GAAP diluted income per ADS for Q3 2024 was RMB 8.75 (USD 1.25), a 49.8% increase year-over-year[13] Revenue Breakdown - Accommodation reservation revenue for the third quarter of 2024 increased by 22% year-over-year to RMB6.8 billion (US$969 million)[2] - Transportation ticketing revenue for the third quarter of 2024 increased by 5% year-over-year to RMB5.7 billion (US$805 million)[2] - Packaged-tour revenue for the third quarter of 2024 increased by 17% year-over-year to RMB1.6 billion (US$222 million)[2] - Corporate travel revenue for the third quarter of 2024 increased by 11% year-over-year to RMB656 million (US$93 million)[2] - Accommodation reservation revenue grew 21.7% year-over-year to RMB 6,802 million (USD 969 million) in Q3 2024[10] - Transportation ticketing revenue increased 5.3% year-over-year to RMB 5,650 million (USD 805 million) in Q3 2024[10] - Packaged-tour revenue surged 17.3% year-over-year to RMB 1,558 million (USD 222 million) in Q3 2024[10] Cash and Investments - As of September 30, 2024, the balance of cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investment, and held to maturity time deposit and financial products was RMB86.9 billion (US$12.4 billion)[3] Operating Expenses - Operating expenses for Q3 2024 totaled RMB 8,067 million (USD 1,150 million), a 9.5% increase compared to Q3 2023[11] - Share-based compensation for Q3 2024 was RMB 459 million (USD 65 million), a 31.9% decrease compared to Q2 2024[13]

Company Performance - Trip.com shares closed at $66.68, reflecting a +1.83% change from the previous trading day's closing, outperforming the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.1% [1] - Over the past month, Trip.com shares gained 0.69%, lagging behind the Consumer Discretionary sector's gain of 5.33% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.37% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Trip.com is set to announce its earnings on November 18, 2024, with an expected EPS of $0.91, down 9% from the prior-year quarter [2] - The consensus estimate predicts revenue of $2.2 billion, indicating a 16.65% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are projected at $3.36 per share and revenue at $7.35 billion, reflecting changes of +22.63% and +18.09% respectively from the preceding year [3] - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Trip.com may indicate a changing business landscape, with positive revisions suggesting optimism about the company's outlook [3] Valuation Metrics - Trip.com is currently trading with a Forward P/E ratio of 19.49, which is a discount compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 21.72 [6] - The Leisure and Recreation Services industry, part of the Consumer Discretionary sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 66, placing it in the top 27% of over 250 industries [6] Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), has shown that 1 ranked stocks yield an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [5] - Trip.com currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate remaining unchanged over the last 30 days [5]

Group 1 - Trip.com (TCOM) closed at $68.42, reflecting a +1.75% change from the previous trading day's closing, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 1.23% [1] - Over the past month, Trip.com shares have decreased by 1.62%, while the Consumer Discretionary sector gained 1.35% and the S&P 500 lost 0.54% [1] Group 2 - The upcoming earnings report for Trip.com is expected to show an EPS of $0.91, indicating a 9% decline compared to the same quarter last year, with projected revenue of $2.2 billion, reflecting a 16.65% increase [2] - For the full year, earnings are projected at $3.36 per share and revenue at $7.35 billion, representing increases of +22.63% and +18.09% respectively from the previous year [3] Group 3 - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Trip.com are being monitored, as upward revisions indicate analysts' positive outlook on the company's operations and profit generation [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates estimate changes, currently rates Trip.com at 3 (Hold), with the consensus EPS projection remaining unchanged over the past 30 days [6] Group 4 - Trip.com is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 20.01, which is in line with the industry average [7] - The Leisure and Recreation Services industry, part of the Consumer Discretionary sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 61, placing it in the top 25% of over 250 industries [7] Group 5 - The Zacks Industry Rank is based on the average Zacks Rank of individual stocks, with top-rated industries outperforming the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Core Insights - Trip.com Group Limited will announce its financial results for the three months ended September 30, 2024, on November 18, 2024, U.S. Time [1] - A conference call will be hosted by the management team at 7:00 PM U.S. Eastern Time on the same day, with a live webcast available [2] - The company operates a comprehensive travel platform and is recognized as a leading provider of travel services globally [4] Company Overview - Trip.com Group Limited is a leading global one-stop travel platform, offering a wide range of travel products and services [4] - The company was founded in 1999 and is listed on Nasdaq since 2003 and HKEX since 2021 [4] - It operates under various brands, including Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, and Skyscanner, with a mission to pursue the perfect trip for a better world [4]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the investment philosophy focused on small cap companies, highlighting the importance of identifying mispriced securities through understanding financial drivers and utilizing DCF model valuation [1] Investment Philosophy - The investment approach is not confined to traditional categories such as value, dividend, or growth investing, but rather considers all prospects of a stock to assess risk-to-reward [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com is experiencing a mixed performance in the market, with a recent share price of $64.89 and a notable increase of 9.49% over the last month, outperforming both the Consumer Discretionary sector and the S&P 500 [1][2]. Financial Performance - The upcoming earnings release is anticipated to show an EPS of $0.91, reflecting a 9% decline year-over-year, while revenue is projected at $2.2 billion, indicating a 16.65% increase from the same quarter last year [2]. - Full-year estimates predict earnings of $3.36 per share and revenue of $7.35 billion, representing year-over-year growth of +22.63% and +18.09% respectively [3]. Analyst Sentiment - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Trip.com are crucial, as positive revisions indicate optimism regarding the company's business and profitability [3][4]. - The Zacks Rank system currently rates Trip.com as 3 (Hold), with the consensus EPS estimate remaining unchanged over the past month [5]. Valuation Metrics - Trip.com is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 19.37, which is slightly lower than the industry average of 19.61, suggesting a relative discount [6]. - The Leisure and Recreation Services industry, which includes Trip.com, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 102, placing it in the top 41% of over 250 industries [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com (TCOM) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings potential, which is expected to drive buying pressure and increase its stock price [1][2]. Earnings Outlook - For the fiscal year ending December 2024, Trip.com is projected to earn $3.36 per share, reflecting a 22.6% increase from the previous year's reported figure [5]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Trip.com has risen by 5.6%, indicating a trend of increasing earnings estimates [5]. Impact of Earnings Estimates - The correlation between changes in earnings estimates and stock price movements is strong, with institutional investors using these estimates to assess fair value, leading to significant buying or selling actions that affect stock prices [3]. - The Zacks rating system effectively utilizes earnings estimate revisions to classify stocks, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [4]. Zacks Rating System - The Zacks rating system maintains a balanced distribution of 'buy' and 'sell' ratings across over 4000 stocks, with only the top 5% receiving a 'Strong Buy' rating, indicating superior earnings estimate revisions [6]. - The upgrade of Trip.com to a Zacks Rank 1 places it in the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting potential for near-term price appreciation [6].