每经AI快讯，携程集团-S(09961.HK)盘中涨近5%，截至发稿，涨4.33%，报578港元，成交额4.24亿港 元。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group's stock price increased by approximately 5%, reaching 578 HKD, driven by positive travel demand forecasts and strong financial performance indicators [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Ctrip Group-S (09961) saw a stock price increase of 4.33% with a trading volume of 424 million HKD [1] - The overall cross-regional personnel flow in China is projected to reach 20,776.3 million trips by December 31, 2025, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 33.7% and a year-on-year growth of 25.4% [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The tourism demand is expected to continue to be robust, with Ctrip benefiting from a strong product offering and quality service [1] - Ctrip's domestic market share is steadily increasing, supported by a solid competitive advantage, with profit margins anticipated to gradually improve [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Ctrip is positioned to capitalize on the international expansion opportunities and favorable inbound policies, maintaining a rapid growth strategy focused on scale [1] - The company has implemented a significant share buyback plan and regular dividend arrangements, indicating a proactive stance on shareholder returns [1]

2025年12月31日，携程集团发布《2025年度旅行报告》显示，旅游市场呈现需求多元化、体验深度化、 场景融合化特征，年轻群体主导的"回旋镖式"航线、自然疗愈导向的"沉浸走廊"等新业态加速涌现，推 动行业进入"情绪经济"新阶段。 2025年，"松弛感""反内卷"相关搜索量同比激增7倍，周一上午59%用户通过AI查询祈福目的地，"求治 愈""想发呆"成年度热词。报告指出，旅行已从"打卡消费"转向"心灵处方"，Z世代重视情绪价值与身份 认同，在节演展赛场景中客流占比超80%，热衷"搭子出游""拼小团"等社交化产品。 报告显示，2025年热门目的地呈现出多元化的特征。北京、上海作为国际文化与现代都市的代表持续受 到关注；西安、南京、成都等城市凭借深厚的历史底蕴与生活哲学吸引大量游客；重庆、长沙则以立体 魔幻的城市体验与活跃的夜经济成为"感官体验窗口"。此外，广州、深圳、杭州等地依托大湾区活力与 数字智能发展，成为"数智活力窗口"的典范。 银发族追求兴趣与温度，通过摄影、歌舞、非遗体验等活动丰富其精神生活；外国游客则通过味觉与视 觉沉浸式体验中国，如上海"TASTE OF CHINA 味"沉浸式餐厅广受欢迎。 西南 ...

①美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌0.63%报48063.29点，标普500指数跌0.74%报6845.5点，纳指跌0.76% 报23241.99点； ⑧伦敦基本金属多数下跌，LME期锡跌3.54%报40470.0美元/吨，LME期铜跌0.49%报12496.5美元/吨， LME期镍跌0.46%报16750.0美元/吨，LME期铅跌0.22%报2005.5美元/吨，LME期铝涨0.57%报2997.0美 元/吨，LME期锌涨0.06%报3126.0美元/吨； ②热门中概股普跌，阿里巴巴跌0.52%，拼多多跌0.39%，网易跌2.01%，携程跌0.57%，百度跌1.30%， 京东跌0.03%； ⑨美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨2.67个基点报3.475%，3年期美债收益率涨3.65个基点报 3.536%，5年期美债收益率涨5.19个基点报3.725%，10年期美债收益率涨5.49个基点报4.175%，30年期 美债收益率涨4.67个基点报4.852%； ③大型科技股集体下跌，蔚来跌超7%，网易跌2%，百度跌超1%；哔哩哔哩微涨； ⑩英国10年期国债收益率跌2.3个基点报4.473%。 ④欧洲主要股指收盘小幅 ...

社服行业 2026 年度投资策略 20251230 摘要 国家政策支持内需扩张，老龄化和 Z 世代崛起驱动体验式、个性化消费， 康养旅游和新消费成投资重点。 旅游出行行业持续复苏，各地促销活动显著推动，景区产业资源整合加 速，行业向高质量发展。 OTA 平台占据旅游产业链重要地位，美团、携程等通过差异化竞争提升 盈利能力并巩固核心竞争力。 酒店行业与经济状况密切相关，需求分化下供给降速，头部企业具备溢 价能力，建议关注首旅锦江、华住及亚朵等龙头企业。 免税行业关注度提升，低基数效应下数据转正，高货值商品比例提升客 单价，海南封关及新政带来增长空间，关注中免、王府井及珠海免税。 本地生活领域竞争激烈，美团面临京东、阿里等竞争对手，长期价值回 归存在分歧，但仍是值得关注的重要标的。 K12 教育领域政策逐步稳定和市场复苏，龙头企业如好未来、新东方等 受益于品牌力、教学质量和扩张能力。 Q&A 2026 年服务业消费的投资机会有哪些？ 旅游出行行业在 2026 年的发展趋势如何？ 随着全球重新开放及复苏，旅游出行行业将继续回暖。无论是出境游还是国内 游，都处于持续复苏状态。各地文旅部门和 OTA 平台（如美团、携程 ...

Core Insights - The outbound tourism market in 2025 has shown robust growth, with double-digit year-on-year increases in orders for various travel products, including tours, local experiences, and cruise services [3][4] - Inbound tourism has also surged, with ticket orders for inbound flights from overseas users increasing by over 100% year-on-year, particularly for flights to Shanghai, which saw a nearly 600% increase [3][8] Outbound Tourism Trends - Consumer preferences for outbound travel have become more diversified and personalized, with families preferring comfortable services like cruises and Z-generation consumers spending more on unique experiences [5][6] - Free independent travel remains the mainstream mode of outbound tourism, with a notable increase in small group tours that offer better value and experience compared to traditional large group tours [6] - Emerging destinations such as Sweden and Iceland have gained popularity, particularly for their unique attractions like the Northern Lights, indicating a shift in travel patterns [6][7] Inbound Tourism Growth - Inbound tourism has experienced significant growth, with a 100% increase in bookings for the first three quarters of 2025, and orders from visa-exempt countries rising by an average of 153% [8][9] - The Chinese government is enhancing the convenience and internationalization of inbound tourism, with measures such as extending transit visa exemptions and expanding applicable ports [8][11] - Key travel periods for inbound tourists include spring and autumn, with a trend of early bookings observed among travelers from Asia, Europe, and Australia [8][9] Market Potential - Currently, inbound tourism revenue accounts for less than 0.5% of China's GDP, compared to over 10% in Thailand and 1-2% in many Western countries, indicating a significant potential market increase of approximately 1 to 2 trillion yuan if it reaches comparable international levels [11][12] - The upcoming New Year and Spring Festival holidays are expected to further boost both outbound and inbound tourism, with many popular long-haul outbound tours already sold out [11]

Group 1 - The outbound tourism market in 2025 is experiencing high-quality growth, with significant increases in orders for various travel products, including tours, local experiences, and cruise services, showing double-digit growth year-on-year [1] - Inbound tourism is witnessing explosive growth, with overseas flight bookings to China more than doubling compared to last year, particularly for flights to Shanghai, which have increased nearly sixfold [1] - The trend of personalized and diversified travel consumption is evident, with families preferring comfortable services like cruises, while Gen Z consumers are spending more on unique experiences [2] Group 2 - The demand for small group tours is rising, with a notable increase in the proportion of small group products in the overall outbound tour market, appealing to consumers seeking better experiences and more free time [2] - Instant group day tours are gaining popularity, and new long-haul destinations like Sweden and Iceland are emerging, indicating a shift in travel preferences [3] - Inbound tourism is experiencing a robust recovery, with a 100% increase in bookings in the first three quarters of 2025, and a remarkable 153% growth in orders from visa-exempt countries [5] Group 3 - International visitors are increasingly exploring inland cities in China, with Chongqing seeing a 170% increase in inbound traffic, and Datong experiencing a sevenfold increase in ticket sales due to its cultural attractions [6] - The potential market for inbound tourism in China is significant, with the current contribution to GDP being less than 0.5%, compared to over 10% in Thailand, suggesting a potential market increase of 1 to 2 trillion yuan if it reaches comparable international levels [7] - The upcoming New Year and Spring Festival holidays are expected to further boost both outbound and inbound tourism, with many popular long-haul outbound tours already sold out [7]

12月31日，携程发布《2025中国入境游年度报告》（以下简称"报告"），数据显示，2025年前三季度入境游预订已经实现了100%的增长，来自免签国家的 订单增幅平均高达153%。这一系列数据不仅标志着行业全面复苏，更显示出中国正加速向"十五五"规划建议中提出的"旅游强国"目标迈进。 此外，报告基于携程平台数据，进一步洞察了入境游客的行为偏好。地理距离成为影响停留时长的核心变量，亚洲等临近客源地的游客多以4-7天的中短途 旅行为主，而来自大洋洲等南半球的旅客则更倾向于7天以上的深度游。 气候、特定国际长假、国际大型会展和演出赛事等，是决定何时来华的关键。春季（4月）与秋季（10月）是海外游客最偏爱的到访窗口，其中10月更是各 大热门客源国的入境高峰。在行程规划上，"提前囤货"特征明显，亚洲、欧洲及澳新地区的游客普遍习惯提前半个月以上预订入境行程。 从"打卡地标"到"极致体验" 海外游客来中国玩什么？去什么城市玩？2025年的答案更加多元和深入。报告揭示了目的地"下沉"和"半径扩大"的新趋势。除了北京、上海、广州等传统门 户城市外，海外游客开始深入中国内陆，寻找独特的文化体验。 在宏观大盘强劲复苏的背景下，作为 ...

Core Insights - The New Year's holiday in 2026 is expected to significantly boost tourism demand, driven by the "take 3 days off and rest for 8" strategy, which has ignited consumer enthusiasm for travel [1][3] - The tourism market is experiencing unprecedented activity, with trends showing deeper, personalized, and quality-focused travel experiences [1][3] Travel Trends - The "take 3 days off and rest for 8" strategy has extended the holiday period, creating opportunities for long-distance travel and deep vacations, leading to a surge in market activity [3] - Tourists are increasingly opting for both short trips within a 100-300 km radius and longer international trips, reflecting a blend of domestic and international travel patterns [1][3] Market Dynamics - The travel market has seen a 10% increase in average spending per customer and a 9% increase in the number of items purchased compared to last year [3] - The proportion of cross-province hotel bookings is expected to exceed 50%, indicating a shift towards longer stays and immersive vacation experiences [4] Transportation Insights - Train and flight bookings have surged, with train ticket searches increasing by 303% compared to the same period last year, highlighting the pressure on transportation systems [4][5] - Air travel demand has more than doubled compared to last year, with popular routes reflecting a strong north-south travel pattern [5] Destination Highlights - Northern destinations like Harbin are experiencing a boom in winter tourism, with significant interest in ice and snow activities [7][9] - Southern cities such as Sanya and Guangzhou are popular among northern tourists seeking warmer climates, with flight bookings to these destinations increasing by 36% [10][12] Emerging Destinations - New and unique destinations are gaining popularity, such as Kaifeng and Jingdezhen, which attract visitors with immersive cultural experiences [13] - Cities like Qingyuan and Meishan are becoming ideal choices for short getaways due to their proximity to major urban centers and rich natural resources [13] Consumer Behavior - The desire for "ceremonial" experiences during the New Year is driving diverse consumption patterns, with events like New Year's concerts significantly boosting local tourism [15][16] - Younger generations, particularly those born after 2005, are showing the fastest growth in travel bookings, indicating a strong potential market [17]

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