京东此番搅局，究竟是善谋而胜还是铩羽而归，仍需时间证 明。但可以肯定的是，平静多时的酒旅市场也要像外卖行业那 样"风骤起，吹皱一池春水"了。 作者： 佘宗明 封图：图虫创意 刘强东预告的"京东进军酒旅"，来了。6月18日，京东面向全体酒店经营者发布公开信，称希望通 过新通路的方式为酒店行业提供供应链服务。京东还表示，酒店商家如果参与"京东酒店PLUS会 员计划"，可享受最高三年0佣金。 说起来，京东涉足酒旅业务已有多年：2011年，上线了机票预订服务；2014年，推出了"京东旅 行"频道，还收购了"今夜酒店特价"预订平台；2015年，以3.5亿美元领投途牛；2018年，举办 了"酒店战略发布会"；2020年，与携程合作……但整体上，京东酒旅业务的优先级不算太高，激 起的声量十分有限。 这次京东又以搅局者姿态高调杀入酒旅市场，显然不是试水那么简单：无论是被传言以3倍薪资从 友商处挖人，还是打出"零捆绑，透明价"+价格补贴的策略，抑或是对酒店大幅度减免佣金、免前 置坑位费，都表明京东此举已超越单一酒旅业务线的盈利考量，变成生态协同棋盘上的战略性落 子。 长期以来，酒旅都属于高毛利业务：今年一季度，携程酒旅业务毛利 ...

据不少商家反映，单纯强制绑定或开通调价助手或许没那么难以接受，关键是携程通过调价助手，未经 商家允许，擅自调整酒店房间价格。比如携程为了保障客房售卖价格相对其他平台更低，自动抓取竞品 酒店价格后，就通过调价助手自行变更客房价格进行跟价，名为"自动跟价"，而实际上则是"强制调 价"。 近日，多家酒店商家反映，在携程平台遭遇被强制开通一个叫"调价助手"的功能，携程可以在后台强制 修改商家的房间定价，而迫于平台的市场地位，诸多的商家只能选择"忍气吞声"。 酒旅行业的"内卷"也正在愈演愈烈，作为中国规模最大的在线旅游服务商（OTA）携程集团正在陷入一 场争议之中。近日，多家酒店商家反映，在携程平台遭遇被强制开通一个叫"调价助手"的功能，携程可 以在后台强制修改商家的房间定价，而迫于平台的市场地位，诸多的商家只能选择"忍气吞声"。 所谓调价助手，是一款保证携程价格优势的自动化跟价工具。它可以定期扫描其他平台同款酒店产品价 格，以便携程监测自身产品价格与竞品平台的差异，一旦发现携程酒店的定价高于其他平台，调价助手 会立即自动调低酒店底价，或者让酒店产品参与促销活动。 "自动跟价"实为"强制调价" "我们很多时候是有订单来 ...

来源|深氪新消费 Gawaine 外卖战场火拼的喧嚣还未完全消散，京东又在酒旅行业拉开了一条新的战线。 此前京东就因3倍薪资从携程挖人、无捆绑卖机票等新闻，传出要进军酒旅行业，而今终于风声落定。 6月18日，京东以"最高三年0佣金"的政策正式官宣进军酒旅行业，正式吹响挑战携程垄断的号角。 这不单单是京东从电商向本地生活服务的链条延伸，而是一场对酒旅行业传统霸权的颠覆。 外卖大战还没结束，京东就开始进军酒旅，外界曾有不少声音疑惑，京东此举否有些操之过急。 但对于京东来说，这其实更像一种"带着些必然"的使命。 刘强东曾经表态，说"外卖的利润率不超过 5%"，这并不是东哥卖惨，而是外卖的利润真的就这么低，每家都是。 同类数据显示，美团的外卖业务利润率长期低于 3%，美团干外卖也不挣钱，其主要靠到店业务赚钱。 而携程所在的酒旅赛道，则是互联网业内里利润最高的业务之一，且携程是这一行业的绝对龙头，市场占有率超过56%，去年净利率32%，其净利率在大型 互联网企业中独占鳌头。 因此京东表面上重兵投入外卖大战，或许是欲以高频的外卖业务为流量池，黏住用户，为酒旅这一高利润业务铺路，再通过酒旅、闪购等业务实现盈利。 在外卖利薄 ...

Global Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,238, down 1.99% for the day but up 36.31% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 2.42% on the day, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 35.17% [1] - The US markets remained stable, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 unchanged, showing year-to-date increases of 11.89% and 25.39% respectively [1] Sector Performance in Hong Kong - The Hang Seng Financial Index decreased by 1.77% for the day, with a year-to-date increase of 39.60% [2] - The Hang Seng Industrial and Commercial Index fell by 2.20%, while the Hang Seng Utilities Index saw a smaller decline of 1.12% [2] Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance, with predictions of two rate cuts later in the year due to economic slowdown and inflation concerns [4] - The US economy is facing risks of stagflation, with a projected decrease in economic growth and an increase in unemployment rates [4] - The Japanese government is adjusting its bond issuance strategy to alleviate upward pressure on long-term bond yields [3] Company Analysis: 大家乐 (Cafe de Coral) - The company is facing significant challenges, with same-store sales in Hong Kong and mainland China continuing to decline, leading to a downward revision of growth forecasts from 2% to 0% for the fiscal year 2026 [4][5] - Despite efforts to enhance customer traffic through new product offerings and membership programs, sales growth remains constrained by external competition and changing consumer behavior [5] - The company has lowered its profit margin expectations due to rising operational costs and competitive pressures, with a projected net profit decline of 30% for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 [6][7] Investment Ratings and Targets - The investment rating for 大家乐 has been downgraded to "Hold," with a target price set at 6.52 HKD, reflecting a cautious outlook on the company's performance amid a challenging market environment [6][7] - The company's fiscal year 2025 sales fell by 1.4% to 8.6 billion HKD, with net profit declining by 25% to 233 million HKD, which was below expectations [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The online travel agency (OTA) Ctrip is facing controversy over its "Price Adjustment Assistant" feature, which allows the platform to unilaterally modify hotel room prices without merchant consent, leading to complaints from hotel operators about being forced into unfavorable pricing situations [2][3][5]. Group 1: Ctrip's Market Position - Ctrip holds over 50% market share in the domestic OTA market as of 2021, and it is projected to maintain over 56% market share in 2024, indicating its dominant position in the industry [5]. - The platform's strong market presence contributes to a power imbalance, making it difficult for merchants to resist or exit partnerships despite unfavorable terms [5][6]. Group 2: Price Adjustment Assistant Controversy - The "Price Adjustment Assistant" is described as an automated pricing tool that adjusts hotel prices to ensure Ctrip remains competitive, often without merchant approval [2][3]. - Merchants report that Ctrip can change promotional pricing and discounts without their consent, leading to significant discrepancies between expected and actual room prices [3][4]. - The automatic nature of the tool has led to concerns that it could result in unsustainable pricing for hotels, potentially harming consumers as well [4][6]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Competition - The competitive landscape in the travel industry is intensifying, with other platforms like JD.com and Meituan also entering the market, which may further pressure Ctrip and its pricing strategies [7][8]. - The ongoing "involution" in the industry, characterized by aggressive pricing strategies, is pushing platforms to prioritize short-term gains over sustainable practices, affecting merchants adversely [7][8]. Group 4: Legal and Regulatory Considerations - Experts suggest that Ctrip's practices may constitute an abuse of market dominance, potentially violating antitrust laws, although the online travel sector has not yet been a primary focus of regulatory scrutiny [8][9]. - The lack of significant judicial precedents in the online travel industry means that merchants may need to actively gather evidence and advocate for regulatory attention to address these issues [8][9].

以下文章来源于识局Insight ，作者识局智库研究组 识局Insight . 洞察时代之变，探寻致胜之道 作者 | 识局智库研究组 来源 | 识局Insight 导语： 高盛等外资机构历史上存在"唱多做空"争议。尽管报告高调唱多，但资金流向数据却呈 现矛盾信号。 高盛首席中国股票策略师刘劲津近日发布《中国民营企业的回归：潮流已经逆转》研究报告，将腾 讯、阿里巴巴、小米、比亚迪、美团、网易、美的、恒瑞医药、携程和安踏列为中国"民营十巨 头"。 高盛此次推出"民营十巨头"概念，本质上是在中国资本市场构建一套对标美股的叙事体系。报告开 篇即明确表示，这是"仿效美股的'七巨头'（Magnificent 7）"而提出的"中国版Prominent 10"。 这些企业占据MSCI中国指数42%的权重，日均交易额达110亿美元，展现出极强的市场影响力。高 盛预计它们未来两年盈利将实现13%的年复合增长率，平均市盈率仅16倍，显著低于美国科技七巨 头28.5倍的估值水平。 AI革命：民企主导新赛道 高盛选择了一个绝佳的时间窗口。2025年2月高层民营企业座谈会和4月《民营经济促进法》的出 台，标志着政策环境发生实质性转变。高 ...

刘显达指，中东局势不稳虽会拖累市场气氛，但同时带来低吸港股的机会，而且中国当前处于通缩，油 价上升带来的通胀对中国未必是坏事。 他指，7至8月关注企业业绩报告，第四季及明年焦点则是"十五五"规划，因投资中资股最看重国策，预 期当局会以新经济去拉动经济增长，当中医疗养老、科技研发、教育和文化旅游行业料可受惠国策。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗上月调高恒指目标价，花旗集团中国股票策略师刘显达认为，中东局势对港股 影响不大，加上关税发展较之前明朗，全球主要央行减息亦降低资金成本，预期明年港股盈利增长可能 较今年更佳，因此对港股看法依然正面，并不排除未来有进一步调高目标价的可能。 花旗早前调高恒指今年底目标价至25,000点，若中美关系今年稍后继续有改善，2026年上半年目标为 26,000点。 花旗予消费股增持评级，因受海外贸易关税上涨影响较小，而且政府刺激措施和补贴有望提振本地消 费。对于行业内卷问题，刘显达指，选股时要留意内卷因素，建议选择较大型、实力较强，行内竞争较 少的公司。 花旗最新首选股名单为腾讯 (00700) 、华能国电 (00902) 、携程(TCOM.US)、比亚迪 (01211) 、友邦 (012 ...

文｜互联网那些事 最近，#京东正式官宣进军酒旅#的消息在网络上持续发酵，热度不下，其中不少网友开始喊话携程：做好打仗的准备！ 为助力酒旅业务发展，京东不仅采取了一系列举措，还与超30000家大型企业和超800万中小企业客户深度合作，如果酒店商家参与"京东酒店PLUS会员计 划"，可享受最高三年0佣金。 作为中国在线酒旅市场的龙头，面对这个来势汹汹的重量级选手，携程该拿出什么招来应对？ 01.OTA不难做，但携程难打 其实自今年三月起，京东便开始在招聘平台上密集发布酒旅相关岗位，而据相关内部人士透露，京东还将在今年暑期全面发力酒旅，目标直指携程。 那可行性呢？ 从携程2024年的财报来看，全年营收532.94亿元，同比增长19.73%；净利润170.67亿元，同比增长72.08%，不论是收入规模还是市占率，携程都是遥遥领先 的存在。 有了外卖市场的前车之鉴，不难看出这次也是一场恶战。 只不过这次直接对标携程，恐怕比做外卖要难得多。 不论是谁，作为一个并未深入OTA平台的电商选手，要想打携程，他要学习的地方可太多了： 比如机票业务涉及了复杂的运价算法和航班组合逻辑，酒店业务也需要成熟的排序机制、预订流程和客诉处理 ...

Macro Economic Overview - The global stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,711, down 1.12% for the day but up 39.09% year-to-date [1] - The US retail sales unexpectedly fell in May, with significant declines in durable goods and restaurant services, while some categories like clothing and online shopping saw a rebound [4] - The US Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in June and July, with potential rate cuts anticipated in September and November or December due to economic slowdown and inflation concerns [4] Industry Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index decreased by 0.67% and is up 42.12% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Real Estate Index fell by 1.98%, down 6.59% year-to-date [2] - The semiconductor industry saw significant gains, with the A-share market reflecting strong performance in this sector [3] Company Focus - Geely Automobile (175 HK) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 24.00, representing a potential upside of 48% [5] - Xpeng Motors (XPEV US) is also rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 28.00, indicating a 50% upside [5] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) has a target price of 40.61, suggesting an 18% upside from its current price of 34.50 [5] - Tencent (700 HK) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 660.00, indicating a potential upside of 30% [5] - Alibaba (BABA US) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 155.50, representing a 37% upside [5]

Core Insights - The fourth Shanghai Tourism Investment Promotion Conference was held, highlighting the rapid recovery of Shanghai's inbound tourism market due to optimized visa policies [1] - Shanghai aims to become the "first stop for inbound tourism in China," leveraging major projects to drive investments worth hundreds of billions and activate high-quality development in the cultural tourism industry [1][2] - The conference introduced the "Ten-Hundred-Thousand" investment blueprint for Shanghai's cultural tourism, outlining ten landmark projects, annual investments of billions, and a significant amount of招商空间 [2][3] Group 1 - The Shanghai Lego Resort, which is the first of its kind in China and the largest globally, has garnered significant attention since its internal testing phase [1] - Major projects signed at the conference include the Hilton Hotel in the Shanghai International Tourism Resort, the Bund Source Phase II, and various cultural tourism enhancement projects [1][2] - The conference emphasized Shanghai's favorable business environment and growing middle-class consumer base as key factors for future growth in the tourism sector [2] Group 2 - The "4+16" investment directory was released, identifying 16 sub-sectors for global capital investment, including art trading, esports, and immersive experiences [3] - Shanghai is building a comprehensive tourism ecosystem through a closed loop of large projects, industries, and integration, aiming to provide high-quality services to global tourists [3] - The conference was attended by key officials, including the Deputy Mayor, who announced the investment blueprint for 2025 [3]