证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 携程集团-S（09961.HK） 海外市场持续拓展，看好国际业务份额提升 及利润空间 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 44,510 | 53,294 | 61,878 | 69,635 | 76,171 | | 同比（%） | 122.12 | 19.73 | 16.11 | 12.54 | 9.39 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 9,918 | 17,067 | 32,267 | 19,109 | 21,221 | | 同比（%） | 606.91 | 72.08 | 89.06 | (40.78) | 11.05 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 13,071 | 18,041 | 32,263 | 20,009 | 22,023 | | 同比（%） | 910.12 | 38.02 | 78.83 | (37.98) | ...

Core Viewpoint - The draft regulations on personal information protection for large internet platforms have been released, establishing criteria for identifying such platforms and outlining their obligations for personal information protection [1][2]. Group 1: Identification of Large Platforms - The draft specifies that platforms with over 50 million registered users or 10 million monthly active users will be classified as large internet platforms, which includes traditional internet giants and emerging AI companies [3][4]. - Companies like DeepSeek, MiniMax, and Kimi, as well as smart device manufacturers such as OPPO, vivo, and Honor, are also likely to fall under this classification due to their user base [1][3]. Group 2: Responsibilities and Compliance - Large platforms are required to establish dedicated personal information protection teams, appoint responsible personnel, and publish annual social responsibility reports regarding personal information protection [6][7]. - The draft emphasizes the need for platforms to store personal information generated within China in domestic data centers and to conduct compliance audits and risk assessments [7]. Group 3: Independent Supervision - The draft regulations propose the establishment of independent supervisory committees composed mainly of external members to oversee personal information protection compliance [10][11]. - These committees will be responsible for monitoring compliance with personal information protection regulations and will need to maintain regular communication with users [11].

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group-S (09961) maintains a "Buy" rating with Q3 2025 performance slightly exceeding expectations, net revenue increased by 16% year-on-year to 18.4 billion RMB, and operating profit margin stable at 30% [1] Financial Performance - Q3 performance slightly exceeded expectations with net revenue of 18.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16%, surpassing the bank/market expectations by 2%/1% [1] - Accommodation bookings increased by 14% year-on-year, while transportation ticketing revenue rose by 9%, accounting for 44% and 34% of total revenue respectively, contributing 51% and 27% to revenue growth [1] - Gross profit increased by 15% year-on-year with a gross margin of 82%, remaining stable both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1] - Operating profit reached 5.6 billion RMB, an 11% year-on-year increase, exceeding bank/market expectations by 4%/5%, with an operating profit margin rising to 30% [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 19.2 billion RMB, significantly above market expectations of 5.6 billion RMB, primarily reflecting gains from the disposal of overseas investment in MakeMyTrip [1] Operational Data - Domestic hotel ADR and ticket prices saw a slight decline in Q3, with domestic tourism revenue per capita increasing by 5% and total visits up by 13% year-on-year [2] - Outbound hotel and ticket bookings increased by 20% year-on-year, and 40% compared to Q3 2019, indicating a recovery faster than the industry average [2] - International OTA hotel and ticket bookings maintained over 60% year-on-year growth, with the Asia-Pacific market being the largest [2] - Inbound tourism bookings more than doubled year-on-year [2] - TripGenie has expanded to over 200 countries, with user growth exceeding 200% year-on-year [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - During the National Day holiday, outbound hotel and ticket bookings increased by 30%, with strong growth in Europe and stable hotel ADR [3] - Q4 total revenue is expected to grow by 16% year-on-year, with accommodation and transportation bookings projected to increase by 15% and 12% respectively [3] - For 2026, total revenue is forecasted to grow by 14%, with adjusted net profit expected to reach 20.8 billion RMB and a profit margin of 29.6% [3] - The bank is optimistic about the company's long-term profit margin exceeding 30%, driven by supply advantages and improved profitability in overseas operations [3] - The valuation benchmark has been adjusted to 2026, with a target price raised to 693 HKD (9961.HK) / 89 USD (TCOM.US) based on a 20x 2026 P/E ratio [3] - The company continues to invest in AI and overseas markets while maintaining good ROI and financial discipline [3]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group-S (09961) maintains a "Buy" rating with Q3 2025 performance slightly exceeding expectations, net revenue increased by 16% year-on-year to 18.4 billion RMB, and operating profit margin stable at 30% [1] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached 18.4 billion RMB, a 16% year-on-year increase, slightly above the firm's and market expectations by 2% and 1% respectively [2] - Accommodation bookings grew by 14% year-on-year, while transportation ticketing revenue increased by 9%, accounting for 44% and 34% of total revenue, contributing 51% and 27% to revenue growth [2] - Gross profit rose by 15% year-on-year with a gross margin of 82%, remaining stable both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [2] - Operating profit was 5.6 billion RMB, an 11% year-on-year increase, exceeding the firm's and market expectations by 4% and 5% respectively, with an operating profit margin of 30% [2] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 19.2 billion RMB, significantly above market expectations of 5.6 billion RMB, mainly reflecting gains from the disposal of overseas investment in MakeMyTrip [2] Operational Data - Domestic hotel ADR and ticket prices saw a slight decline in Q3, with domestic tourism revenue per capita increasing by 5% and total visits up by 13% year-on-year [3] - Outbound hotel and flight bookings increased by 20% year-on-year, and 40% compared to Q3 2019, indicating a faster recovery than the industry average [3] - International OTA hotel and flight bookings maintained over 60% year-on-year growth, with the Asia-Pacific market being the largest [3] - Inbound travel bookings more than doubled year-on-year [3] - TripGenie has expanded to over 200 countries, with user growth exceeding 200% year-on-year [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - During the National Day holiday, outbound travel hotel and flight bookings increased by 30%, with notable growth in Europe and stable hotel ADR [4] - Q4 total revenue is expected to grow by 16% year-on-year, with accommodation and transportation bookings projected to increase by 15% and 12% respectively [4] - For 2026, total revenue is forecasted to grow by 14%, with adjusted net profit expected to reach 20.8 billion RMB and a profit margin of 29.6% [4] - The firm is optimistic about the company's long-term profit margin exceeding 30%, driven by supply advantages and improved profitability in overseas operations [4] - The valuation benchmark has been adjusted to 2026, with a target price raised to 693 HKD (9961.HK) / 89 USD (TCOM.US) based on a 20x 2026 P/E ratio [4] - The company continues to invest in AI and overseas markets while maintaining good ROI and financial discipline [4]

Core Insights - Ctrip Group reported strong financial performance for Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 18.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%, and a net profit of 19.9 billion yuan [1] - The company benefited from robust travel demand during the peak season, with both domestic and international markets showing healthy growth [1] Revenue Breakdown - Accommodation booking revenue was 8 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year, driven by strong outbound travel and international hotel bookings [1] - Transportation ticketing revenue reached 6.3 billion yuan, a 12% increase year-on-year, supported by strong growth in international air bookings [1] - Vacation revenue was 1.6 billion yuan, growing 3% year-on-year, primarily due to the expansion of international product lines [1] - Business travel management revenue was 756 million yuan, up 15% year-on-year, as more companies adopted this service [1] International Business Performance - The international OTA platform saw total bookings increase by approximately 60%, with the Asia-Pacific region being the largest contributor [2] - Inbound travel bookings more than doubled year-on-year, with strong growth also observed in Europe and the U.S. [2] - Outbound hotel and flight bookings increased nearly 20% year-on-year, reaching 140% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019 [2] Demographic Trends - Demand from both senior and young travelers is strong, indicating a trend of intergenerational diversity [3] - The number of users in the "Old Friends Club" grew over 70%, with affluent senior travelers focusing on quality travel experiences [3] - Young travelers are increasingly driven by experiential tourism, with significant revenue growth in this segment due to events like concerts [3] Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve revenues of 61.56 billion yuan, 70.78 billion yuan, and 80.36 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.5%, 15.0%, and 13.5% respectively [3] - Projected net profits for the same period are 31.92 billion yuan, 20.58 billion yuan, and 23.86 billion yuan, with growth rates of 87.0%, -35.5%, and 15.9% respectively [3] - Ctrip's domestic business advantages and potential growth in international markets suggest long-term investment value, with a target PE of 20.5X for 2026 [3]

机构：华创证券 研究员：饶临风/曹锦瑜 事项：携程集团发布2025 年三季报 公司于2025 年三季度实现营业收入183.7 亿元，yoy+15.5%；毛利率81.7%，yoy-0.7pcts；营业利润55.7 亿元，yoy+ 11.3%；净利润198.9 亿元，yoy+194.0%，主要系三季度处置部分投资带来利润增量。 评论： 住宿预订业务营收增速超预期。营收分拆看，住宿预订业务营收80.5 亿元，yoy+18.3%；交通票务收入 63.1 亿元，yoy+11.6%；旅游度假业务营收16.1 亿元，yoy+3.1%；商旅管理业务营收7.6 亿元， 185.4/210.5/242.9 亿元）。参考可比公司估值，给予公司2026 年20×PE，目标市值4524 亿港元，对应目 标价635 港元/股，对应空间12.3%，维持"推荐"评级。 风险提示：海外业务扩张不及预期；国内需求增长放缓；行业竞争加剧；地缘政治风险。 国际业务高增持续。2025 年三季度，国际OTA 平台总预订同比增长约60%，入境旅游预订同比增长超 100%，出境酒店和机票预订达到2019 年同期的140%。其中，亚太地区贡献主要增长，三季度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong growth in Q3 2025, with net operating income reaching 18.3 billion yuan (YoY +16%) and net profit attributable to shareholders at 19.9 billion yuan (YoY +194%) [1] Group 1: Overall Performance - The company's Q3 2025 net operating income and net profit attributable to shareholders showed robust year-on-year growth, driven by resilient domestic tourism demand, high growth in cross-border/international business, and a one-time gain from the sale of MMYT.O [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of outbound tourism and the development of inbound tourism, alongside continuous improvements in its global OTA platform and the application of AIGC in the cultural tourism sector [1] Group 2: Domestic Business - Diverse travel demands are driving steady growth in the domestic market, with significant increases in bookings from remote areas like Urumqi, Hohhot, and Lhasa, which saw nearly 30% year-on-year growth [2] - The company is targeting the silver-haired market, with user numbers and total transaction volume for its "Old Friends Club" growing over 70% year-on-year [2] - Collaborations with several entertainment companies have been established to further drive revenue growth in the youth travel segment [2] Group 3: Outbound Business - The outbound business continues to grow steadily, with cross-border flight capacity recovering to 88% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019, and hotel and flight bookings for outbound travel increasing nearly 20% year-on-year, reaching 140% of 2019 levels [2] Group 4: Global OTA Business - The international OTA platform saw total bookings increase by approximately 60% year-on-year, with significant contributions from the Asia-Pacific region, and mobile platforms accounting for over 70% of total bookings [3] - Inbound tourism bookings surged over 100% year-on-year, with the Asia-Pacific region remaining the primary source of inbound tourists, while Europe and the US markets also showed strong growth [3] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - As a leading player in the OTA industry, the company is expected to benefit from the release of domestic tourism demand, the recovery of inbound and outbound tourism, and the deepening of its global OTA business [3] - The company forecasts net operating income of 61.9 billion, 70.1 billion, and 79.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 31.8 billion, 20.4 billion, and 22.9 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to diluted EPS of 48.6, 31.3, and 34.8 yuan [3] - The target market value for the company in 2026 is set at 440.5 billion yuan, with a target price of 678 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

机构：中信建投证券 研究员：崔世峰/于伯韬 收入端略超预期。三季度携程实现营收183.67 亿（vsguidance181 亿），同比增长15.52%，其中交通票 务收入63.06 亿（vs guidance62 亿），同比增长11.61%，酒店收入80.47 亿（vsguidance79 亿），同比增 长18.30%，旅游度假收入16.06 亿（vsguidance17 亿），同比增长3.08%，商旅收入7.56 亿（vs guidance7.2亿）。三季度携程国内业务收入占比达65%左右，增速接近10%左右；出境业务收入占比接 近mid-teens，增速接近mid-teens；纯海外业务收入占比20%以上，增速在40%左右，其中Trip.com收入 占比13%左右，增速在60-65%左右。三季度国际业务保持强劲增长势头，国际OTA 平台总预订同比增 长超过60%，入境旅游预订同比增长超过100%，出境酒店和机票预订已全面超越2019 年疫情前同期的 140%水平。 受益于处置MMYT 部分股权影响，利润端大幅增长。携程三季度实现毛利润149.79 亿元，同比增长 14.58%，毛利率达到81.68%，同比 ...

记者丨高江虹 编辑丨高梦阳 11月18日，携程集团公布2025年第三季度财报，数据显示单季净利润达到199亿元，同比大幅增长 194%，创下净利润超过营业收入的罕见记录。 这一利润表现背后，是一项精明的跨境投资退出决策。携程通过出售所持印度在线旅游巨头 MakeMyTrip部分股权，一举获得约170亿元巨额收益。 "这主要得益于处置某些投资所得，"携程CFO王肖璠在业绩发布会上坦言。她所指的，正是携程对 MakeMyTrip这笔历时九年的投资。不过，剔除这笔投资收益，携程第三季度净利润并没有那么可观， 远低于去年同期的68亿元。 下一步，携程要如何向投资者描绘增长曲线？ | TCOM Financial Results Recap | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RMB '00mn | 3Q23 | 4Q23 | 1Q24 | 2Q24 | 3Q24 | 4Q24 | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3025 | 3Q25E | var. | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group reported a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2025, reaching 19.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 194%, primarily driven by a strategic exit from its investment in MakeMyTrip, which generated approximately 17 billion RMB in revenue from the sale of shares [1][4]. Investment in MakeMyTrip - Ctrip's investment in MakeMyTrip began in January 2016 with a convertible bond of 180 million USD, marking its entry into the Indian market, which was seen as having high growth potential due to a rapidly rising middle class [4][5]. - The investment was strategically timed, as the IMF projected India's economic growth at 7.5% in 2016, with a significant increase in the middle-class population, providing a strong foundation for tourism consumption [4]. - Over nine years, Ctrip's stake in MakeMyTrip grew, with the book value of the investment reaching 6.2 billion RMB by the end of 2023 and 7.1 billion RMB by the end of 2024, indicating a stable appreciation [5][6]. - In June 2025, Ctrip sold part of its shares in MakeMyTrip for 2.5 to 3 billion USD, reducing its voting rights from 45.3% to 16.9%, transitioning from a strategic to a financial investor [5][6]. Growth Engines - Ctrip's management highlighted three main growth engines: AI technology, inbound tourism, and targeted market segmentation [8][9]. - AI is positioned as a core strategic pillar, with Ctrip's AI travel assistant, TripGenie, expanding its user base significantly, indicating a strong focus on enhancing customer experience through technology [8]. - The inbound tourism sector is identified as a rapidly growing area, with Ctrip noting that China's inbound tourism revenue as a percentage of GDP is significantly lower than that of developed countries, suggesting substantial growth potential [9]. - Ctrip is also focusing on the silver economy, targeting older consumers who have three times the spending power of younger demographics, and has seen significant growth in its "Old Friends Club" membership and transaction volume [9][10]. Market Challenges - Despite strong Q3 performance, the online travel industry faces renewed price competition, with major players like JD and Douyin entering the market [13]. - Ctrip's management emphasized the importance of quality service over price competition, as the market trends indicate a persistent decline in hotel and flight prices [13][14]. - The recovery of international business remains slow, with global airline capacity only at 88% of pre-pandemic levels, which could hinder faster growth for Ctrip's international operations [14]. - Ctrip is adopting a differentiated competitive strategy, including a global SOS service network for customer support and a refined marketing approach based on market maturity [14].