2025 年 11 月 20 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 相关报告 《携程集团-S（9961.HK）2025Q2 财报点评：利 润强劲增长，关注国际业务长期增量（买入）*旅 游及景区*陈梦竹，张娟娟》——2025-08-31 《携程集团-S（9961.HK）2025Q1 财报点评：旅 游需求持续强劲，关注国际业务长期增量（买入） *旅游及景区*陈梦竹，张娟娟，罗婉琦》—— 2025-05-24 《携程集团-S（9961.HK）2024Q4 财报点评：延 续高质量增长，看好国际业务长期增量空间（买入） *旅游及景区*陈梦竹，张娟娟，罗婉琦》—— 事件: 证券分析师： 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 张娟娟 S0350523110004 zhangjj02@ghzq.com.cn ——携程集团-S（9961.HK）2025Q3 财报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对恒生指数表现 | | | 2025/11/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 携程集团-S | 8.0% | ...

Market Overview - The A-share market opened higher but experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.38% while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext fell by 0.05% and 0.52% respectively [3][4]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 23 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [5]. Sector Performance - The banking sector showed strong performance, with all bank stocks rising. Notably, China Bank's stock price surged by 5.17%, reaching a historical high with a market capitalization of 186.78 billion yuan [11][10]. - The lithium mining sector continued its strong momentum, with significant gains in stocks such as Weiling Co. and Dazhong Mining, which recorded a limit-up increase of 10% [16][17]. - Conversely, the retail, soft drink, and tourism sectors experienced noticeable declines, with the water product and lithium battery electrolyte sectors also weakening [5][6]. Specific Stock Movements - Major banks such as Agricultural Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank, and Construction Bank saw increases of 0.36%, 1.58%, and 4.73% respectively, contributing to a robust banking sector performance [14]. - In the lithium sector, the price of lithium carbonate futures surged past 100,000 yuan per ton, indicating strong demand from downstream manufacturers [18][19]. Brokerage Sector - A wave of mergers among brokerages has sparked market interest, with stocks like Shouchuang Securities rising over 5% following announcements of significant asset restructuring [22][23]. - The overall performance of brokerage stocks was mixed, with some stocks experiencing gains while others saw declines [22]. Fisheries Sector - The fisheries sector, particularly Zhongshui Fisheries, saw its stock price rise by 10.02% amid geopolitical tensions affecting Japanese seafood imports to China [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group's recent financial performance indicates strong growth driven by increasing global travel demand, with significant year-over-year improvements in both revenue and net profit [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Trip.com Group reported net operating revenue of 18.3 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 16% [1] - The net profit for the quarter reached 19.9 billion RMB, a substantial rise from 6.8 billion RMB in the same period of 2024 [1] - The financial results exceeded market expectations, with revenue and non-GAAP operating profit growing by 16% and 12% respectively [1] Market Insights - UBS estimates that Trip.com’s overseas revenue for the last quarter will increase by over 50% year-on-year, contributing to 18% of total revenue [1] - The outbound tourism business is expected to maintain a mid-teens growth rate, estimated between 13% to 17% [1] - The impact from the Japanese market is considered limited, as leisure travelers are likely to shift their destinations [1] Domestic Business Outlook - The fourth quarter is anticipated to show resilience in domestic business revenue, benefiting from an increase in hotel occupancy rates [1] - However, the average daily room rates for hotels may experience a slight decline in the low single digits [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group's recent financial performance indicates strong growth driven by increasing global travel demand, with significant year-over-year improvements in both revenue and net profit [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Trip.com Group reported net operating revenue of 18.3 billion RMB, a 16% increase year-over-year [1] - The net profit for the quarter reached 19.9 billion RMB, a substantial rise from 6.8 billion RMB in the same period of 2024 [1] - The financial results exceeded market expectations, with revenue and non-GAAP operating profit growing by 16% and 12% respectively [1] Market Insights - UBS estimates that Trip.com’s overseas revenue for the last quarter will increase by over 50% year-on-year, contributing to 18% of total revenue [1] - The outbound tourism business is expected to maintain a mid-teens growth rate, estimated between 13% to 17% [1] - The impact of the Japanese market is considered limited, as leisure travelers are likely to shift their destinations [1] Domestic Business Outlook - The fourth quarter is anticipated to show resilience in domestic business revenue, benefiting from an increase in hotel occupancy rates [1] - However, the average daily room rates for hotels may experience a slight decline in the low single digits [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group's recent financial performance shows significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by increasing global travel demand, although the stock price has declined by over 3% following the earnings report [1] Financial Performance - Ctrip Group reported a net operating revenue of 18.3 billion RMB for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16% [1] - The net profit for the quarter reached 19.9 billion RMB, a substantial increase compared to 6.8 billion RMB in the same period of 2024 [1] - The financial results exceeded market expectations, with revenue and non-GAAP operating profit growing by 16% and 12% year-on-year, respectively [1] Market Insights - According to Zhongyin International, Ctrip's progress in acquiring traffic in both domestic and overseas markets (Trip.com platform) has been notable [1] - UBS estimates that Trip.com's overseas revenue for the last quarter will increase by over 50% year-on-year, accounting for 18% of total revenue [1] - The outbound tourism business is expected to maintain a mid-double-digit growth rate (approximately 13% to 17%), with limited impact from the Japanese market as leisure travelers shift destinations [1] Future Outlook - The fourth quarter is anticipated to show resilience in domestic business revenue, benefiting from an increase in hotel occupancy rates, although the average daily room rate may experience a slight decline [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group-S (09961) reported third-quarter results that exceeded market expectations, with revenue and non-GAAP operating profit increasing by 16% and 12% year-on-year, respectively, indicating significant progress in traffic acquisition in both domestic and overseas markets [1] Financial Performance - Revenue growth of 16% year-on-year in Q3 [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit increased by 12% year-on-year [1] Market Position and Strategy - Ctrip is expected to maintain good growth in its core market until Q4 2025 [1] - The stable competitive landscape in China is anticipated to allow Ctrip to focus more on expanding its overseas market [1] Analyst Rating - The firm reiterated a "Buy" rating for Ctrip and raised the target price from 630 HKD to 638 HKD [1]

智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研报称，携程集团-S(09961)第三季度财报超出市场预期，收入和non- GAAP营业利润同比分别增长16%和12%，反映其在国内市场和海外市场(Trip.com 平台)流量获取方面的 显著进展。重申"买入"评级，并将目标价由630港元升至638港元。截至2025年第四季，携程在其核心市 场仍录得良好增长。该行预计，中国国内稳定的竞争格局将使携程能够更专注于推动海外市场扩张。 ...

As the market awaits Nvidia’s (NVDA)  much-anticipated Q3 report, impressive quarterly results from several Chinese tech firms have been a highlight of this week’s earnings lineup so far.Before the latest trade tensions between the U.S. and China, which have been partly alleviated, Chinese equities had surged to multi-year highs. While profit-taking and macro pressures have led to a correction, these Chinese tech stocks are making the case for more upside after crushing Q3 earnings expectations.   Baidu – B ...

Group 1: Xiaomi - Xiaomi's Q3 revenue reached 113.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.3% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.4% [1] - Adjusted profit for the quarter was 11.3 billion, up 80.9% year-on-year [1] - Automotive revenue was 28.3 billion, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 207%, with a quarterly profit of 0.7 billion [1] - The performance in major appliances was disappointing, with a year-on-year decline of 15.7% and a quarter-on-quarter drop of 64.8% [1] - Current valuation estimates suggest Xiaomi's smartphone business could be valued at around 600 billion, while automotive and other IoT segments could add significant value [1] Group 2: Pinduoduo - Pinduoduo's Q3 revenue was 108.2 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 9%, the first time it fell below 10% growth [2] - Net profit for the quarter was 29.3 billion, up 17% year-on-year, with over 400 billion in cash reserves [2] - Current market valuation stands at 180 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 10 when excluding cash, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [2] - Concerns remain regarding the company's future dividend and buyback plans, leading to a significant drop in stock price [2] Group 3: Boss Zhipin - Boss Zhipin reported Q3 revenue of 2.16 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, with net profit reaching 0.687 billion, up 108% [3] - The substantial profit growth was attributed to reduced marketing expenses and the introduction of new paid services [3] - The company is viewed positively due to its ability to grow amidst challenging market conditions, suggesting strong potential for future performance [3] Group 4: Trip.com - Trip.com achieved Q3 revenue of 18.3 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16% [4] - International OTA bookings surged by 60% year-on-year, while inbound travel doubled, indicating robust recovery in travel demand [4] - The company's consistent performance and market position contribute to its stable stock price, making it a strong player in the travel industry [4] Group 5: Baidu - Baidu's Q3 revenue was 31.17 billion, a year-on-year decline of 7%, although AI business revenue grew by over 50% [5] - The mixed results raise questions about the company's overall performance and future outlook [5] Group 6: Google - Google's Gemini 3 Pro model achieved the highest score in model rankings, reinforcing its strong position in the AI sector [6] - Berkshire Hathaway's recent investment in Google indicates confidence in the company's long-term business viability [6] - Overall, the recent financial results of Chinese internet companies are not perceived as particularly poor, despite heightened market expectations [6]

Core Insights - Trip.com Group Ltd is a leading online travel agency offering a variety of travel services globally, competing with major players like Expedia and Booking Holdings [1] Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating for TCOM, raising the price target to $86 from $85, reflecting confidence in the company's growth potential [2][6] - Benchmark Equity Research reaffirms a "Buy" rating and increases the price target from $80 to $82, citing the company's structural advantages and growth phase [3][6] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Trip.com reported a 16% year-over-year increase in net revenue, reaching 18.3 billion Chinese yuan (approximately $2.58 billion), exceeding expectations across various segments [4][6] - The company's adjusted EBITDA for the same period was 6.35 billion yuan, surpassing forecasts by over 6% [4][6] Group 3: Stock Performance - TCOM's current stock price is $72.44, reflecting a 2.19% increase, with a market capitalization of approximately $47.65 billion [5][6] - Over the past year, TCOM has traded between a high of $78.65 and a low of $51.35 [5]