丨 2025年6月27日 星期五 丨 NO.1 携程银发旅游旗舰店落地上海核心商圈 6月26日，携程集团全国首家"老友会"旗舰店在上海第一百货开业，专为50岁以上人群提供一站式旅行 服务。这一布局直指低龄健康老年人群体——据预测，2025年我国该群体的规模将突破1亿人，银发旅 游市场收入有望达万亿元。目前携程老友会已积累超300万会员，覆盖50余个友好目的地。未来，携程 老友会将以上海旗舰店为起点，逐步在全国核心城市及旅游资源丰富的二三线城市布局更多门店。 每经记者｜王紫薇 每经编辑｜魏官红 NO.3 亚马逊联合泡泡玛特打假 查获假冒LABUBU钥匙挂件超700件 6月26日，亚马逊全球打假团队首次联合泡泡玛特开展保护知识产权行动，配合中国执法机构经过数月 追踪和调查锁定售假供应商，查获超700件假冒LABUBU钥匙挂件及包装材料上千件。今年是亚马逊公 布全球打假团队成立五周年，五年间，亚马逊全球打假团队已从最初仅在两个国家开展行动，扩展至如 今的12个国家。 点评：跨国平台与国潮品牌联手打假，体现IP（知识产权）保护国际化趋势。泡泡玛特借助亚马逊渠道 治理能力，提升海外市场的正品保障，有助于强化品牌信誉，也 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese OTA market has undergone significant changes over the past few decades, with Ctrip emerging as the leader, while Meituan, Tongcheng, Qunar, and Fliggy have settled into secondary positions [1][2] - JD.com is entering the OTA space, leveraging its existing user base and resources to challenge Ctrip, indicating a shift in the competitive landscape [1][2] - The hotel market in China is still dominated by non-chain hotels, presenting an opportunity for JD.com to capture market share by targeting smaller hotels that are sensitive to commission fees [3][4] Market Dynamics - JD.com has over 800 million users, with a significant portion being high-net-worth individuals, aligning well with the business travel needs that Ctrip caters to [2] - The 2024 hotel market is expected to see Ctrip leading, followed by Tongcheng and Meituan, with the latter two having established advantages in resource integration and brand building [2][3] - JD.com is focusing on a supply chain model rather than a traditional commission-based model, which may allow it to attract hotels that are looking to reduce dependency on OTAs [4][21] Competitive Strategies - JD.com is adopting a "rural encircling the city" strategy by initially targeting smaller, commission-sensitive hotels rather than high-end chains [4][5] - The competition between JD.com and Ctrip is not just about immediate market share but also about long-term sustainability and resource allocation [8][21] - The traditional OTA model relies heavily on commissions and advertising fees, while JD.com is exploring supply chain service fees and membership value-added services [4][21] Supply Chain Considerations - The hotel supply chain in China is complex, with significant costs associated with distribution, which JD.com aims to streamline [5][21] - In 2023, 41,800 new hotels entered the market, indicating a growing supply that JD.com can tap into, especially among smaller hotels [5][17] - The shift towards a buyer's market is evident, with average revenue per available room (RevPAR) declining, which may benefit JD.com’s zero-commission model [22] Future Outlook - The entry of JD.com into the OTA space is seen as a potential game-changer, with the possibility of reshaping the competitive landscape [7][23] - The evolving dynamics of the hotel market suggest that companies with strong supply chain capabilities, like JD.com, may gain a competitive edge [19][23] - The focus on user experience and supply chain efficiency will be critical for JD.com as it seeks to establish itself in the OTA market [21][22]

老年旅游市场的潜力正在被进一步挖掘。 老年旅游市场的潜力正在被进一步挖掘。6月26日，上海第一百货迎来了一家"老有意思"的新店，这是专为老年群体旅游打造的线下门店——"携程老友 会"全国首家官方旗舰店，该店的正式开业也意味着携程进一步加码老年旅游市场。 在上海第一百货，记者看到"老有意思"门店内布置着咨询台、茶水间和会议室等，门店内已经聚集了一些老年游客询问旅游产品。旗舰店专为50+人群量身 打造"老有意思旅行团"，涵盖六大深度主题游：主打旅拍的"入画系列"、融合歌舞教学的"翩然系列"、专家精讲的"研学系列"、提供摄影美术教学的"光影系 列"、 主打特色疗愈的"悦养系列"和经典徒步路线的"秘境系列"。 在关在四本的通送盛送三次上海视榜国际旅行在官 「白 明 無 民 意 意 史 a BE F f F H - T - T - T - T - T - T - T - T - T - T - T - T - T - T - T - T - T - T - T - T - T - T - T - T - r - 2006 携程老友会项目负责人王欣欣对第一财经记者表示，如今的老年人出游已不满足于单纯观光，而是对旅行品质和 ...

随着中国老龄化进程不断加速，银发旅游市场正释放出前所未有的发展潜力。数据显示，预计到2025年底，出游率高、消费能力强的低龄健康老年人将 突破1亿，银发旅游收入市场规模有望突破万亿元大关。作为全国老龄化程度最高的城市之一，上海的银发旅游市场潜力尤为突出，当前规模已超800亿元， 预计到2028年将逼近2000亿元。 在这样的市场背景下，6月26日，携程集团专为老年群体打造的线下门店——"携程老友会" 全国首家官方旗舰店在上海第一百货商业中心开业。携程集 团首席营销官（CMO）孙波现场表示，"携程老友会全国首家旗舰店的开业，是携程服务模式的一次重要升级，标志着旅游服务向专业化、精细化阶段迈 进。" 马云飞/摄 记者在现场留意到，作为旗舰店主推产品，专为50岁以上人群量身定制的"老有意思旅行团" 备受瞩目。官方称，该系列产品精准聚焦银发群体需求， 精心打造了"入画系列""翩然系列" "研学系列" "光影系列" "悦养系列" "秘境系列" 六大深度主题游。据携程老友会项目负责人王欣欣介绍，如今老年人出游 需求已发生显著变化，不再局限于单纯观光，对旅行品质和情绪价值提出了更高要求。 "'老有意思旅行团'" 深度覆盖旅 ...

Market Overview - Chinese stock market experienced significant gains, led by brokerage stocks, as the People's Bank of China and six ministries reiterated efforts to promote long-term capital inflow and stabilize the capital market [1] - European stock markets declined, with NATO members committing to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, but the market may be entering a profit-taking phase as these expectations are already priced in [1] - US stock market saw slight increases, with technology, communication services, and healthcare sectors rising, while real estate and utilities fell [2] Company Analysis: GuoShengTang (固生堂) - GuoShengTang, a leader in China's private TCM service industry, demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 12.7% year-on-year increase in offline patient visits in Q1 2025, showing a month-on-month acceleration [6] - The company plans to accelerate store expansion, aiming to open 15-20 new stores in 2025, including both self-built and acquisitions, enhancing its market leadership in key regions [6] - GuoShengTang launched the first national TCM AI avatar, which utilizes deep learning from a renowned TCM expert, aiming to improve diagnostic quality and address the shortage of quality TCM resources [7] - The company has a strong focus on increasing self-paid revenue, with less than 30% of its income coming from insurance, and plans to expand treatment and self-paid herbal medicine income [8] - GuoShengTang returned 4.2 billion yuan to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in 2024, representing 137% of its net profit for that year, and continues to maintain a robust cash flow for shareholder returns [8] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 52.75 HKD, expecting revenue growth rates of 26.7%, 25.9%, and 25.0% for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [8] Company Analysis: Carote (卡罗特) - Carote's sales growth is expected to remain weak in Q2 2025, similar to Q1, with a forecasted single-digit growth due to high base effects from the previous year and ongoing macroeconomic challenges [9][10] - The company has adjusted its sales growth forecast for FY 2025 from 23% to 14%, anticipating a slowdown in demand in key markets like China and Europe [10] - Recent tariff increases on steel and aluminum products significantly impact Carote's gross margins, with total tariffs on exports to the US potentially reaching 73.3% [11] - The rating for Carote has been downgraded to "Hold" with a target price of 4.64 HKD, reflecting the anticipated decline in net profit and sales growth due to rising tariffs and weak demand [11]

中金研究 互联网行业历经两年多降本增效的收缩期，财务状态普遍得以修复，2025年以来，我们观察到行业明显进入新一轮投资周期，AI、出海、即时零售等 方向成为热点。我们认为创新和冒险是镌刻在互联网基因中的元素，虽然我们看好大部分投入所带来的增量，但站在二级市场投资角度，我们认为展 望未来时，亦需留出足够大的缓冲空间，平衡好短期与长期之间的节奏。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 "古典互联网"再次站上历史舞台。 2025年距饿了么、美团、滴滴等上一轮移动互联网代表公司成立已十五年有余，在移动互联网发展初期，企业通常会 把市场份额视为主要竞争力，把对手消耗在快速依靠资本提升规模的阶段，至于投入产出长期是否成立，可以在主要竞争对手消失后再说。随着国内互联 网早已完成各项服务从零到一的渗透，龙头公司份额日趋稳固，这种"古典"打法日趋过时，行业所关注的核心指标，也从用户数、交易额等先行指标，转 向核心利润。究其原因，当市场趋于成熟时，没有那么多的增量空间；资本也趋向冷静，没有那么多的资源去支持在存量上的同质化竞争。出乎意料的 是，年初以来多家行业龙头加入了以用户数、单量、市场份额为目标的外卖和即时零售的竞 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Nasdaq rising by 0.31%, while the S&P 500 remained flat and the Dow Jones fell by 0.25% [1] - Major tech stocks had varied performances, with Nvidia increasing over 4% to reach a market capitalization of $3.77 trillion, making it the highest valued company globally [1] - Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropping by 0.6% [1] Group 2 - President Trump warned of a potential resurgence in the Israel-Iran conflict during a NATO summit, which led to a significant spike in international oil prices, with WTI crude rising above $66 and Brent crude above $67.50 [2] - Trump emphasized continued pressure on Iran while downplaying the likelihood of a nuclear agreement, indicating flexibility in sanctions policy [2] - Fed Chair Powell suggested that future trade agreements could create room for interest rate cuts, amidst criticism from Trump regarding his intelligence and performance [3][4]

Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices opened higher and closed with significant gains, with the Nasdaq up 1.43%, the Dow Jones up 1.19%, and the S&P 500 up 1.11% [1][5] - The Dow Jones reached its highest closing level since early March, while both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq achieved their highest closing levels since late February [1] - Large-cap tech stocks mostly rose, with Intel increasing over 6% [1][7] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index surged by 3.31%, marking its largest single-day gain since May 13 [2][10] - Notable gains were observed in various Chinese stocks, including Xiaoma Zhixing up over 16%, New Oriental up over 13%, and Kingsoft Cloud up over 7% [10] Commodity Market - COMEX gold futures fell by 1.71% to $3336.9 per ounce, while silver futures dropped by 0.9% to $35.86 per ounce [4] - International crude oil futures saw significant declines, with WTI crude oil down 6.04% to $64.37 per barrel and Brent crude oil down 6.07% to $67.14 per barrel [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that inflation is expected to rise soon, and the Fed will continue to observe economic conditions before deciding on interest rate adjustments [4][12] - Powell mentioned that most Fed policymakers support a rate cut later this year, although he personally disagrees with a rate cut at the July meeting [4][16] - The market currently prices in a 23% chance of a rate cut at the July meeting, with an 82% probability for a cut in September [16]

以下文章来源于深氪新消费 ，作者Gawaine 深氪新消费 . 深氪新消费成立于2016年，聚焦新经济，关注新消费、新零售等领域的商业进化。 作者： Gawaine 来源： 深氪新消费 外卖战场火拼的喧嚣还未完全消散，京东又在酒旅行业拉开了一条新的战线。 此前京东就因 3倍薪资从携程挖人、无捆绑卖机票等新闻，传出要进军酒旅行业，而今终于风声 落定。 6月18日， 京东以"最高三年0佣金"的政策正式官宣进军酒旅行业，正式吹响挑战携程垄断的号 角 。 这不单单是京东从电商向本地生活服务的链条延伸，而是一场对酒旅行业传统霸权的颠覆。 01 京东扩张版图 整顿畸形生态 外卖大战还没结束，京东就开始进军酒旅，外界曾有不少声音疑惑，京东此举否有些操之过急。 但对于京东来说，这其实更像一种 "带着些必然"的使命。 刘强东 曾经表态，说 "外卖 的 利润率不超 过 5%" ，这并不是东哥卖惨，而是外卖的利润真的 就这么低，每家都是。 ---------------------------------- 同类 数据显示， 美团的 外卖业务利润率长期低于 3% ，美团干外卖也不挣钱， 其 主要靠到店 业务赚钱。 而携程 所在的酒 ...

据央视新闻报道，当地时间 6 月 23 日晚，伊朗武装部队宣布对美军驻卡塔尔乌代德空军基地发动 导弹打击，声明称此举是对美军袭击伊朗核设施的回应，由伊斯兰革命卫队执行。 消息传出后，国际原油市场剧烈波动 —— 油价先短线转涨，随后因市场评估冲突影响有限而跳 水，一度较日内高位跌超 10% 。 当地时间周一，市场情绪受美联储官员鸽派表态与地缘事件短暂扰动后回归乐观，美股三大指数集 体收涨，标普 500 指数涨 0.96% ，纳指涨 0.94% ，道指涨 0.89% 。 大型科技股多数上涨，特斯拉大涨超 8% ，创 4 月 28 日以来最大单日涨幅。 Meta 涨超 2% ， 微软、奈飞涨逾 1% ，英伟达、苹果、英特尔小幅上涨；谷歌、亚马逊小幅下跌。稳定币第一股 Circle 涨超 9% ，上市以来累涨约 750% 。 热门中概股也多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨 0.85% 。搜狐涨近 10% ，理想汽车涨近 8% ，新东方涨超 5% ，小鹏汽车、再鼎医药涨逾 4% ，携程网涨超 3% ，百胜中国、金山云涨超 2% ，满帮、万国数据涨超 1% ；小马智行跌约 4% ，唯品会、富途控股跌超 1% 。 01 伊朗 ...