Company Analysis - Ctrip Group (TCOM) maintains a strong competitive position in the Chinese travel industry despite facing an antitrust investigation, with a buy rating and a target price of HKD 85.00, reflecting a 31% increase from the previous target of HKD 65.00[6][3]. - The projected EPS for 2025 is HKD 47.20, a 68% increase from the previous estimate of HKD 28.10, while the 2026 EPS is expected to decrease by 7% to HKD 29.70[3]. Regulatory Impact - The potential fine for Ctrip, based on historical penalties for similar companies like Alibaba and Meituan, could range from HKD 1.8 billion to HKD 2.5 billion, representing approximately 10%-14% of the estimated annual profit for 2025[8]. - The investigation is expected to lead to regulatory changes focusing on eliminating exclusive agreements and promoting fair competition, which may shift the industry from price competition to service competition[8]. Financial Projections - Ctrip's non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at HKD 16.89 billion, HKD 19.84 billion, and HKD 23.14 billion respectively, indicating a steady growth trajectory[9][12]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow from HKD 61.97 billion in 2025 to HKD 79.92 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.1%[12]. Market Sentiment - The current market price of Ctrip shares corresponds to a P/E ratio of approximately 14.5, which is considered low compared to historical valuations, suggesting that the market may be overreacting to the investigation[9]. - The anticipated recovery in domestic outbound tourism and Ctrip's strong penetration in overseas markets are expected to provide a favorable environment for growth[9].

Group 1 - Major stock indices futures are experiencing declines, with Dow futures down 1.64%, S&P 500 futures down 1.82%, and Nasdaq futures down 2.25% [1] - European countries are considering retaliatory measures, including the potential sale of trillions of dollars in assets, in response to the U.S. imposing a 10% tariff on eight European nations starting February 1 [1] - Chinese concept stocks are also declining, with Alibaba down 2.53%, Pinduoduo down 3.79%, and Trip.com down 1.14% [1] Group 2 - Bank of America has raised its target price for IBM from $315 to $335, maintaining a "buy" rating, citing strong free cash flow prospects and an increase in high-margin software business [2] - AppLovin's stock dropped over 10% following a short report from CapitalWatch, which alleged connections to money laundering activities involving cross-border crime groups [2] Group 3 - Gold prices have surged past $4,700, with spot gold at $4,732.85 per ounce and futures at $4,741.54 per ounce, marking significant increases for gold mining companies [3] - BHP has raised its copper production forecast for the 2026 fiscal year despite a 4% year-on-year decline in quarterly copper output, now expecting total copper production of 1.9 to 2 million tons [3] Group 4 - The social media platform X, owned by Elon Musk, has officially open-sourced its new algorithm, which is now accessible on GitHub and is powered by the same Transformer architecture as the xAI Grok model [4]

19 January 2026 | 7:06PM HKT Equity Research Trip.com Group (TCOM) Analysis on potential impact from greater hotel segment competition: profit breakdown and earnings sensitivity; Buy | TCOM | 12m Price Target: $87.00 | Price: $61.77 | Upside: 40.8% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9961.HK | 12m Price Target: HK$676.00 | Price: HK$466.20 | Upside: 45.0% | TCOM's share price has fallen by ~20% over the past three days following its announcement that the State Administration for Market Regulations of the PRC (SAM ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing investigation into Ctrip Group for alleged monopolistic practices, including raising commission rates and imposing unfair trading conditions on small businesses in the tourism sector [2][5][11]. Group 1: Allegations Against Ctrip - Ctrip has been accused of abusing its market dominance, with complaints from members of the Yunnan Province Tourism Homestay Industry Association about rising commission rates from 8%-10% to 12%-18% [2][5]. - The association reported that some homestays face total costs, including hidden promotional fees, reaching nearly 40%, leading to a dilemma of either cooperating with Ctrip and incurring losses or not cooperating and having no customers [2][5]. - Legal experts suggest that if Ctrip is found guilty, it may have to change its entire profit model, which could significantly impact its operations [3][11]. Group 2: Impact on Small Businesses - Small businesses, such as homestays, heavily rely on Ctrip for customer orders, with some reporting that over 90% of their bookings come from the platform [4][5]. - Business owners have described the pressure to comply with Ctrip's demands, including paying for advertising and participating in promotional schemes to maintain visibility on the platform [4][7]. - The hidden costs associated with Ctrip's services can lead to a situation where businesses are left with minimal profit margins, as evidenced by specific examples where platforms take significant cuts from the total booking fees [8][9]. Group 3: Market Position and Financials - Ctrip holds a dominant market share in the domestic tourism sector, with a reported 56% of the total transaction volume in 2024 [6]. - The company's operational profit for Q3 2025 was reported at 5.574 billion yuan, with a profit margin of 30%, although some profits were attributed to the disposal of certain investments [6][10]. - Ctrip's financial dealings extend beyond its platform, as it also collects substantial commissions from hotel groups, indicating a broader influence in the tourism industry [6][10]. Group 4: Regulatory and Legal Considerations - The investigation into Ctrip is based on the Anti-Monopoly Law, which could lead to penalties including fines and the requirement to cease illegal practices [10][11]. - Experts highlight that the focus should not only be on potential fines but also on how Ctrip may need to alter its business practices to comply with legal standards [10][11]. - The allegations against Ctrip include unfair pricing practices and imposing unreasonable trading conditions on small merchants, which could lead to significant changes in the online travel agency landscape [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent investigation into Ctrip for alleged monopolistic practices serves as a warning to all platform enterprises, highlighting the ongoing tightening of regulations in China's platform economy [2][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions and Investigations - As of December 17, 2025, China has handled 35 cases of monopoly agreements and 25 cases of abuse of market dominance, with total fines amounting to 2.93 billion yuan [4]. - Ctrip is under investigation for suspected abuse of market dominance, with the company stating it will cooperate with the investigation [2]. - The National Market Supervision Administration has emphasized the need for continuous regulation of platform economies, with key tasks for 2026 including strengthening regular oversight and ensuring compliance [2]. Group 2: Impact on Platform Enterprises - Ctrip may face operational adjustments, confiscation of illegal gains, and substantial fines, estimated between 533 million to 5.33 billion yuan based on its 2024 revenue of 53.3 billion yuan [3]. - The investigation serves as a critical reminder for all platform enterprises to abandon monopolistic practices and ensure transparency and fairness in transactions [3]. Group 3: Broader Regulatory Framework - The Chinese government has been enhancing its antitrust framework, with recent statistics showing a significant increase in enforcement actions against monopolistic practices [4][6]. - New regulations, such as the "Internet Platform Antitrust Compliance Guidelines," aim to delineate compliance boundaries and encourage self-assessment among platform operators [6]. - The government is also focusing on addressing "involutionary" competition, which is characterized by low-quality, low-price competition that disrupts market efficiency [4][6]. Group 4: Specific Industry Regulations - The food delivery platform sector is under scrutiny, with new national standards introduced to regulate competition and address issues like excessive subsidies and price wars [4]. - The Market Supervision Administration is conducting evaluations of the competitive landscape in the food delivery industry to mitigate monopolistic risks and ensure market order [4]. Group 5: Responsibilities of Platform Enterprises - Platform enterprises are seen as key players in the regulatory landscape, with a need for clear delineation of responsibilities in various scenarios [10][11]. - New regulations will require platform operators to fulfill obligations related to product information disclosure and quality monitoring, reinforcing their role as market order maintainers and consumer rights protectors [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing complaints against Ctrip for monopolistic practices in the online travel platform industry, highlighting the rising commission rates and the financial strain on small accommodation providers [1][3][4]. Group 1: Ctrip's Market Practices - Ctrip has raised its commission rates from 8%-10% to 12%-18%, leading to a situation where the total costs for some accommodations, including hidden fees, can reach up to 40% [1][7]. - The National Market Supervision Administration has initiated an investigation into Ctrip for suspected monopolistic behavior, which may require the company to alter its current profit model [2][12]. - Ctrip's practices include "choose one from two" policies and unreasonable restrictions on pricing, which have been previously flagged by market supervision authorities [2][5]. Group 2: Impact on Small Accommodation Providers - Small accommodation providers, like the one operated by Chen Lei, report that over 90% of their bookings come from Ctrip, creating a dependency that forces them to comply with the platform's demands [3][4]. - Providers often face pressure to pay for promotional services to improve their visibility on the platform, with some reporting that up to 25% of their annual revenue goes to Ctrip in commissions [4][9]. - The lack of formal contracts for "special badge" merchants leads to a de facto "choose one from two" situation, where merchants must choose between Ctrip and other platforms to maintain their status [5][11]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Position - Ctrip holds a significant market share in the domestic travel industry, with a reported 56% of the total transaction volume in 2024 [8]. - In Q3 2025, Ctrip reported an operating profit of 5.574 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 30%, although some profits were attributed to the disposal of certain investments [8][12]. - The company is also involved in the hotel sector, holding a 7.2% stake in Huazhu Group, which pays substantial commissions to Ctrip for booking services [8]. Group 4: Legal and Regulatory Implications - Legal experts suggest that Ctrip may face significant penalties under the Anti-Monopoly Law, with potential fines ranging from 5.33 billion to over 65 billion yuan based on its revenue [11][12]. - The focus of the investigation may lead to changes in Ctrip's operational practices, particularly regarding its commission structure and treatment of small merchants [12][13]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring how Ctrip will adapt its business model in response to regulatory scrutiny, rather than solely focusing on potential fines [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The State Administration for Market Regulation has initiated an investigation into Ctrip Group for suspected monopolistic behavior due to abuse of market dominance [3][14]. Group 1: Investigation Details - The investigation is based on prior checks and is conducted under the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China [3]. - Ctrip has been previously warned multiple times for practices such as unauthorized price changes and setting unreasonable trading conditions [10]. - In August 2025, the Guizhou Provincial Market Supervision Administration held a meeting with Ctrip and other travel platform companies to address price irregularities and potential issues like "choose one from two" practices [11]. - In September 2025, the Zhengzhou Market Supervision Administration conducted an administrative interview with Ctrip for unreasonable restrictions on transaction prices and practices [12]. - In December 2025, the Yunnan Provincial Tourism Homestay Industry Association initiated anti-monopoly protection efforts against online travel agencies, citing Ctrip's unfair trading conditions [13]. Group 2: Company Response - Ctrip has acknowledged the investigation and stated it will cooperate with regulatory authorities while ensuring normal business operations [15]. - The company emphasizes its commitment to providing quality services to users and partners [15].

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report on Chinese tech stocks presents an optimistic outlook for AI development by 2026, driven by both supply and demand factors [1] - The overseas expansion of internet companies is highlighted as a crucial strategy to address macroeconomic, competitive, regulatory, and geopolitical risks [1] Company Preferences - The report lists preferred stocks with an "overweight" rating, including Tencent, Alibaba, Pinduoduo, Tencent Music, NetEase, BOSS Zhipin, Manbang, Meituan, Trip.com, Tongcheng Travel, TAL Education, and Beike [1]

Group 1: Tourism Industry - The tourism market is expected to grow by over 10% in 2025, driven by the continuous release of leisure travel demand and the rise of experiential consumption [1] - Domestic tourism revenue and visitor numbers are projected to increase by 12% and 18% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2025, respectively [1] - Recommended stocks in the tourism industry include China Duty Free Group, Jin Jiang Hotels, ShouLai Hotels, Tongcheng Travel, and Trip.com Group [1] Group 2: Restaurant Industry - Offline consumption is gradually recovering, with domestic restaurant revenue reaching 519.9 billion and 605.7 billion yuan in October and November 2025, showing year-on-year growth of 4.99% and 4.40% [2] - The recovery of leading restaurant companies is faster than the industry average, with a focus on stocks like Green Tea Group and Haidilao [2] Group 3: Tea Beverage Industry - Since Q4 2025, same-store sales for leading tea brands like Gu Ming and Hu Shang A Yi have continued to grow at a high rate of 15-20%, aided by delivery subsidies and brand expansion into coffee and breakfast categories [3] - Despite a slight decrease in delivery subsidies, leading brands are accelerating their expansion, highlighting the advantages of top brands [3] Group 4: Online Travel Agency (OTA) Industry - The recovery of travel demand is ongoing, with OTA performance improving due to increased domestic leisure travel demand, hotel supply growth, and rising online penetration [4] - The performance of OTAs is expected to remain stable with long-term growth potential, particularly with the high growth in outbound travel [4] - Recommended stocks in the OTA sector include Trip.com Group and Tongcheng Travel [4] Group 5: Hotel Industry - In Q4 2025, hotel room supply is expected to grow by 6-8% year-on-year, with RevPAR remaining stable compared to 2024, benefiting from increased holiday traffic and low base effects [5] - Leading hotel companies are expected to have significant earnings elasticity in a cyclical environment, with recommendations for Jin Jiang Hotels and ShouLai Hotels [5]

Group 1 - The central government emphasizes the importance of balancing development and regulation in the platform economy, aiming to enhance the governance system and regulatory standards [1] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has initiated an investigation into Ctrip Group for alleged monopolistic behavior, marking a significant step in promoting fair competition in the digital market [1][2] - The investigation reflects the government's strong stance against monopolistic practices and its commitment to creating a fair competitive environment for various business entities [2] Group 2 - The online travel and accommodation industry is a crucial sector within the platform economy, facing issues such as forced exclusive partnerships and price manipulation, which have raised public concern [3] - The platform economy ecosystem consists of platform enterprises, operators, and consumers, with the need for platforms to consider the interests of all stakeholders to ensure sustainable development [3] - The investigation serves as a response to long-standing concerns and aims to foster a win-win ecosystem that promotes healthy development in the platform economy [3] Group 3 - The revised Anti-Monopoly Law in 2022 includes "encouraging innovation" as a legislative goal, aiming to shift large platform enterprises from a focus on scale to one on technological innovation and service optimization [4] - Effective antitrust enforcement is crucial for breaking down monopolistic barriers and preventing companies from stifling innovation through their advantages [4] - The investigation seeks to uncover potential monopolistic behaviors in the online travel industry, aiming to create a more diverse and inclusive innovation ecosystem [4]