2025年11月27日， "济来沪往 一见儒故"2025济宁文旅长三角招商暨上海旅游推介会在上海举办。本次 活动由济宁市文化和旅游局主办、携程旅行承办，旨在深化济宁市与长三角地区的文旅交流，全面推 介"孔孟之乡、运河之都"优质旅游资源，推动客源互送、项目合作与产业发展。山东省人民政府驻上海 办事处党委委员、副主任马希军，上海市山东商会会长高洪彦，上海市杨浦区文化和旅游局党组副书 记、副局长潘家新，携程集团目的地合作副总经理、华东大区总经理费成诚，济宁市文化和旅游局党组 书记、局长王磊，上海市山东济宁商会会长张玉杨，济宁市长三角驻外招商联络处负责人武勇，济宁孔 子文化旅游集团、济宁市民航事业发展中心、济宁市大安机场有限公司负责同志，以及济宁市各县市区 文旅部门负责同志、重点景区、旅行社代表，上海市重点文旅企业、旅行社、投资机构、媒体代表等百 余人参加活动。 齐聚沪上 共绘文旅新篇 王磊在致辞中系统阐述了济宁作为"孔孟之乡、运河之都"的深厚文化底蕴与强劲发展活力。他指出，济 宁不仅是中华文明重要发祥地与儒家文化发源地，拥有三孔、大运河两处世界文化遗产，更是一座文旅 资源富集、产业基础扎实、发展动能充沛的现代化城市 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth potential of China's inbound tourism market, which has lagged behind domestic and outbound tourism in terms of growth rate and GDP contribution [4] - The inbound tourism market is primarily driven by two factors: the release of visa-free policies and the promotion of Chinese culture abroad, leading to a positive cycle of cultural and tourism integration [5] - The inbound tourism market in China has seen rapid growth since 2023, indicating the onset of a golden development period for inbound tourism [5] Group 2 - Trip.com, as a leading OTA, is benefiting from the inbound tourism boom, with a focus on the Asia-Pacific region and a strategy of gradual international growth [6] - Tongcheng Travel is expanding into international markets, with significant year-on-year growth in international flight and hotel bookings expected in 2024 [7] - Zhongxin Tourism, which started with outbound tourism, is gradually developing its inbound tourism business, having established a subsidiary for inbound services in March 2024 [8]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip has emerged as one of the most profitable internet companies in China, showcasing a remarkable financial performance in Q3, with a revenue of 18.3 billion yuan and a net profit of 19.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16% and 194% respectively [3][4]. Financial Performance - Ctrip's Q3 revenue reached 18.3 billion yuan, marking a 16% increase year-on-year [3]. - The net profit, including partial investment income, was 19.9 billion yuan, showing a staggering 194% growth compared to the previous year [3]. - In the first three quarters of the year, the entire A-share tourism sector, including airlines and hotels, reported a combined net profit of approximately 19 billion yuan, indicating that Ctrip's profit nearly equals the total profit of China's entire tourism industry [5][6]. Profitability Comparison - Ctrip's profit margins are significantly higher than traditional luxury brands, with a gross margin of 81.68%, surpassing that of Hermes (around 70%) and approaching Kweichow Moutai (91%) [10]. - Ctrip operates as a middleman in the tourism industry, generating substantial profits without owning physical assets like hotel rooms or airplanes [9][12]. Business Model Insights - Ctrip's business model is characterized by low marginal costs, as it primarily functions as a platform that connects consumers with service providers, requiring minimal operational overhead [14][16]. - The company has effectively established itself as a toll collector in the tourism sector, benefiting from the high demand for hotel and scenic area access without the associated operational responsibilities [13][17]. Industry Dynamics - The hotel industry is heavily reliant on Ctrip for customer traffic, with accommodation bookings contributing 44% of Ctrip's revenue, amounting to 8 billion yuan in Q3 [19][20]. - Many hotels face a dilemma: disconnecting from Ctrip leads to a loss of customers, while remaining connected incurs high commission fees, often around 15%, which erodes their already thin profit margins [22][24]. - The hotel sector in China is fragmented, with a low chain rate of 40%, making it difficult for individual hotels to negotiate favorable terms with Ctrip [26]. Market Positioning - In the airline ticket booking sector, Ctrip's commission rates are low due to the strong bargaining power of state-owned airlines, which limits Ctrip's ability to extract high profits [29][31]. - Despite the challenges in the airline sector, Ctrip has diversified its revenue streams through various insurance and service packages, which contribute additional profits [33]. Economic Implications - Ctrip's financial success highlights a concerning trend of wealth concentration among intermediaries, raising questions about the sustainability of such a business model in the long term [36][38]. - The current economic landscape suggests that the focus on platform-based businesses may stifle innovation and real economic growth, as resources are increasingly directed towards profit extraction rather than value creation [41][42].

Core Insights - The Chinese internet sector has emerged as the best-performing sector this year, with a cumulative return of 36.5% [1] - In comparison, other indices such as the Seoul Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, Nikkei Index, S&P 500, and India's Nifty 50 have shown lower cumulative returns of 64%, 29%, 26%, 15.8%, and 10.4% respectively [1] - There is a growing risk-averse sentiment in the markets of China, Japan, and the United States, attributed to year-end profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing [1] Industry Analysis - Ongoing debates regarding whether AI valuations are excessively high persist, but geopolitical risks and AI supply chain issues are expected to keep the valuations of Chinese internet companies at a discount compared to global peers [1] - The acceleration of AI adoption is anticipated to intensify competition among Chinese AI participants by 2026, covering areas such as AI cloud infrastructure, chatbots, and various application scenarios [1] Company Preferences - Citigroup's top picks for the first half of 2026 include core AI concept stocks: Tencent and Alibaba [1] - Companies with stable profit growth and anti-cyclical characteristics include Trip.com and NetEase [1] - Companies with high exposure to cross-border business include Jitu Express [1] - Potential stocks in gaming and AI applications include Century Huatong [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The China internet sector has shown strong performance in 2025, with a year-to-date return of +36.5%, outperforming Southeast Asia (+18.3%), India (+17.6%), Japan (+16.8%), the US (+16.2%), and Korea (+12.8%) [1][16] - Geopolitical tensions and AI supply-chain issues are expected to keep China's internet companies trading at discounts compared to global peers [1][2] Core Themes and Insights - **AI Competition and Productivity Gains**: The competition among AI players in China is anticipated to intensify in 2026, focusing on AI cloud infrastructure, chatbots, and applications [1][2] - **Monetization Lag**: Monetization of AI technologies is expected to lag behind user traffic growth, particularly when compared to global peers [1][2] - **Top Picks for 1H26**: Recommended stocks include Tencent and Alibaba as core AI plays, Trip.com and NetEase for stable earnings growth, and Century Huatong among A shares [1][2] AI Market Dynamics - **AI Chatbot Penetration**: ChatGPT leads globally with 800 million monthly active users (MAUs), while Bytedance's Dola and Doubao combined rank third with approximately 250 million MAUs [3] - **User Traffic Competition**: Major internet players are competing for user traffic through AI chatbots, which is crucial for future ecosystem monetization [2] Consumer Behavior and Spending - **Leisure and Entertainment Spending**: The adoption of AI tools is expected to enhance consumer productivity, leading to increased spending on leisure and entertainment, particularly in travel and online gaming [4] - **Stable Earnings Growth**: Online travel agencies (OTAs) and gaming companies are projected to benefit from resilient consumer spending [4] Investment Risks - **Geopolitical and Economic Risks**: Risks include geopolitical tensions, AI supply-chain constraints, muted consumer sentiment without stimulus policies, and intensified competition in AI applications [5] - **Profitability Concerns**: The potential for profit lock-in through membership investments and a slowdown in capital returns are highlighted as significant risks [5] Financial Performance Insights - **3Q25 Results**: Among 44 internet companies, 18 reported revenue beats, and 27 reported earnings beats. The guidance for 4Q25 showed mixed results, with some companies exceeding expectations while others fell short [6][10] - **Year-to-Date Share Price Performance**: Alibaba leads with an 86% return, followed by Tencent at 47%. Meituan has underperformed with a -32% return [16][28] Conclusion - The China internet sector is poised for growth driven by AI advancements, but faces challenges from geopolitical risks and competitive pressures. Companies like Tencent and Alibaba are positioned as key players in this evolving landscape, while consumer spending trends indicate resilience in leisure and entertainment sectors.

Summary of Trip.com Group (TCOM) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Trip.com Group (TCOM) - **Market Cap**: $44.3 billion - **Enterprise Value**: $38.0 billion - **Current Price**: $69.72 - **12-Month Price Target**: $91.00 (Upside: 30.5%) [1][5] Key Industry Insights - **Industry**: Online Travel Agency (OTA) in Asia, particularly focusing on travel to Japan and other Asian markets - **Recent Trends**: Concerns over profit margins and geopolitical tensions affecting travel to Japan, presenting a potential buying opportunity [1][19] Core Points Discussed 1. **Profit Margin Outlook**: - Management addressed concerns regarding lower EBIT margin guidance for 4Q25 (20.8% vs. 21.6% in 4Q24), attributing it to a revenue mix shift towards the loss-making Trip.com platform (18% of revenue vs. 14% in 4Q24) [1][19] - Confidence in improving profitability from domestic and outbound businesses into FY26 due to scale economies and a shift towards higher-margin hotel business [1][19] 2. **Revenue Growth Projections**: - Base case scenario assumes Trip.com's revenue growth will slow to 40% YoY (from 50-60% in recent quarters), with a narrower loss from Trip.com supporting group margin expansion to 29.8% in FY26E [1][19] - Stronger top-line growth (60%+) could dilute margin trends, projecting a decline to 27.5% [1][19] 3. **Impact of Geopolitical Tensions**: - Acknowledgment of cancellations due to the Chinese government's advisory against traveling to Japan, but management remains optimistic about revenue/earnings impact due to the low travel season in 4Q [2][18] - Potential diversion of travel demand to other destinations like Thailand, Hong Kong, and Korea [18] 4. **AI Integration**: - AI is being leveraged to enhance service quality and automate customer interactions, with current automation rates at 75-80% in mainland China [21] - AI is expected to improve cross-selling predictions, potentially boosting revenue [21] 5. **Market Focus and Competitive Strategy**: - Trip.com will prioritize expansion in Asia over Europe, focusing on under-penetrated markets like Korea and Japan [19][21] - Differentiation from competitors through a focus on local Asian travelers and a one-stop shop model for travel services [21] 6. **Financial Projections**: - Revenue forecasts for FY26E: Rmb 70,907.8 million, with EBITDA of Rmb 22,049.5 million and EPS of Rmb 31.43 [5][16] - Expected EBIT margin improvement for domestic/outbound business by 1.3-1.5 percentage points YoY in FY26E [19] Additional Important Insights - **Travel Booking Volume**: A 30-40% YoY decline in travel booking volume was noted, but management is not overly concerned due to the timing and potential for re-arrangements for upcoming holidays [18] - **Investment in MakeMyTrip**: Trip.com retains a 16.9% stake in MakeMyTrip, expecting synergies from shared travel resources [18] - **Valuation Metrics**: The stock is trading at 17x FY26E P/E, 11x EV/EBITDA, and a 6.3% FCF yield, indicating an undemanding valuation [19] This summary encapsulates the key takeaways from the Trip.com Group conference call, highlighting the company's strategic focus, financial outlook, and market dynamics.

Core Conclusion - The notion of "insufficient consumption in China" is a distorted perception amplified by pricing and statistical methods. Bank of America provides extensive data showing that the true picture of Chinese consumption is not "volume shrinkage," but rather "high volume, low price." Total commodity consumption has reached or even surpassed that of the US, Japan, and South Korea; service consumption has met basic standards but still has gaps in quality. The main contradiction in the current market is the mismatch between "mass supply" and "upgraded demand." Companies focusing on the four key areas of "Efficiency, Experience, Service, Globalization (E2SG)" will thrive through cycles [1]. Group 1: Commodity Consumption - China's total commodity consumption is impressive, with certain categories outperforming developed countries. For example, per capita egg consumption is 128.5 g/day, which is 6% higher than the US and 42% higher than the global average. Sulfur consumption is 1117.9 g/day, which is 3.2 times that of the US. Seafood consumption is 114 g/day, nearly double that of the US. However, dairy consumption is only 86.9 g/day, which is 1/7 of the US level, but this gap is mitigated by plant proteins and eggs. The ownership of cooking appliances is 2.14 times the global average and 1.22 times that of the US. The number of new energy vehicles is 7.7 per thousand people, surpassing the US by 1.66 times and Japan by 8.75 times [3][4]. Group 2: Service Consumption - In terms of service consumption, China has met basic standards but still has quality gaps. The average housing area per person is 49 m², slightly below the US's 65 m² but higher than the UK and France. Medical visits average 6.8 times per year, exceeding the US by 3.4 times. Education duration is 15.5 years, on par with the US and Japan, but extracurricular spending is only $140/year, which is 1/28 of South Korea's. The prices for leisure and entertainment, such as concerts and exhibitions, have increased by 53%, indicating a significant supply-demand gap in high-quality offerings [5][6]. Group 3: Misconceptions of Consumption - The illusion of "insufficient consumption" stems from three main sources: 1. Low prices: Most goods/services are priced at only 20%-60% of US prices (e.g., mobile plans at 15%, taxis at 20%, utilities at 24%). 2. Supply chain advantages: China's role as the "world's factory" and innovations in distribution (like community group buying) continue to drive prices down. 3. Statistical discrepancies: If government transfer payments are included, the actual consumption to GDP ratio aligns with that of South Korea, which is approximately 40% [6]. Group 4: Mismatches and E2SG Investment Framework - There are three core mismatches in the market: 1. Supply vs. Demand: There is an oversupply of mass-market products, but insufficient emotional value and experience. 2. Channels vs. Communication: Fragmented media and ineffective traditional marketing require precise targeting and content-driven e-commerce. 3. Expectations vs. Reality: While income expectations are weak, there is a high demand for quality, necessitating affordable yet high-quality offerings [7]. Group 5: E2SG Investment Tracks - The E2SG investment framework emphasizes four key dimensions for companies to succeed in a "high volume, low price" market: 1. Efficiency: Achieving low costs and quick turnover through supply chain optimization and scale effects. 2. Experience: Creating differentiation through product innovation and capturing emotional consumption needs. 3. Service: Filling the gap in high-quality supply. 4. Globalization: Leveraging China's high volume and low price advantage to expand into international markets [10][11][12]. Group 6: Recommended Companies - Bank of America has identified seven companies with long-term competitive advantages across various sectors, including: - Pop Mart: Strong IP operation capabilities and global expansion, with an expected EPS growth of 30% by 2026. - Midea: Leading in global white goods with supply chain efficiency, focusing on overseas OBM business growth. - Geely: Rich in new energy vehicle reserves, planning to launch over 10 new models by 2026 with a target growth of 50%-80%. - Huazhu Group: Benefiting from leisure travel demand recovery and expanding through a light asset model, with a projected 21% CAGR in profits from 2024-2026. - Trip.com Group: Leading in OTA with expected 45% growth in international business revenue over the next six years. - Tencent Holdings: Dominating digital entertainment with stable mobile game revenue and AI-driven efficiency improvements. - Damai Entertainment: Leading in live entertainment ticketing with a projected 60% CAGR in profits from 2025-2028 [20][21].

Core Points - A significant fire occurred in Hong Kong's Tai Po district, resulting in major casualties and prompting over 100 companies and foundations to donate for emergency relief and community recovery efforts, with total donations exceeding HKD 1.2 billion [2][4]. Donation Summary - Major companies such as Yuexiu Group donated HKD 10 million, while China Overseas and China State Construction contributed HKD 20 million [3]. - Tencent donated HKD 30 million, and Alibaba made an initial donation of HKD 20 million [3]. - Other notable contributions include HKD 30 million from the Li Ka Shing Foundation and HKD 12 million from the Chaozhou Association [4]. - The total amount of donations has surpassed HKD 1.2 billion as of the latest reports [4].

Investment Focus - Alphabet (GOOGL US) is expected to maintain good visibility in its advertising business due to the gradual release of its valuation under pressure from AI search, with a projected 30%+ growth in cloud business for the year and margin improvement driven by scale effects [1] - Alibaba (BABA US) is anticipated to see a cloud business growth rate of 28%-30%, benefiting from strong momentum in instant retail, with Taobao expected to achieve a 20-30% MAU growth driven by flash purchase [1] - NVIDIA (NVDA US) is projected to achieve strong revenue growth in FY2027, with GB300 series products expected to account for two-thirds of Blackwell series products, and a revenue target of $500 billion over the next five quarters [1] - Tencent (700 HK) is recommended as a top pick, with a target price of 700, driven by steady growth in core gaming and advertising businesses, and a projected near 20% growth rate in advertising [3] - New Oxygen (SY US) is focusing on the light medical beauty sector with a rapid expansion plan, aiming to open 50 self-operated stores by 2025, supported by a strong marketing capability and low customer acquisition costs [3] - Ctrip (TCOM US) is expected to benefit from steady growth in domestic leisure travel and the recovery of outbound travel, with a projected revenue growth of 14% to 71.1 billion yuan in 2026 [3] - Huazhu (HTHT US) is transitioning to a high-margin franchise model, with a target price of $52, supported by a strong recovery in industry RevPar [4] - Futu (FUTU US) is positioned for long-term growth in the virtual asset business, with a user base of 3.1 million and a current valuation offering a safety margin [4] - AIA (1299 HK) is expected to see steady growth in new business value and operational indicators, with a forward PEV of 1.46x [4] - Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) is actively involved in global power station project contracting, with significant opportunities in the U.S. market due to the demand for power supply capabilities [9]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the role of Ctrip's rural vacation farms in promoting rural revitalization through the integration of culture and tourism, benefiting local residents, intangible cultural heritage practitioners, tourists, and local tourism agencies [1][12] - The project focuses on sustainable tourism models centered around farm construction and green energy, exploring talent development, green operations, community building, and brand marketing [1][12] Employment and Economic Impact - Over 500 employees have been absorbed by 34 rural farms, creating more than 40,000 new jobs in related industries, with over 80% being local villagers, leading to an increase in local per capita annual income by over 40,000 yuan [1] - Each farm establishment has led to approximately 40 new guesthouses in the surrounding area, increasing order volume by 82.4% and average transaction price by 18.7%, with upstream and downstream industries seeing an annual output value increase of over 20 million yuan [1] Talent Development and Training - Ctrip's rural vacation farms have established a sustainable talent cultivation mechanism through the "Ctrip Rural Revitalization Academy," training over 10,000 rural tourism talents, focusing on rural practitioners and guesthouse operators [2] - The "New Farmers Growth Plan" has received over 5,000 resumes, with 80% from the post-2000 generation, providing new opportunities for young people and encouraging their return to rural employment [2] Innovative Models and Cultural Integration - Each farm includes at least one experiential content related to agriculture, animal husbandry, fishing, and forestry, developing unique cultural tourism products based on traditional festivals and local customs [3] - The farms utilize a combination of "online platforms + offline farms + industry chain cooperation" to create a high-end rural vacation ecosystem, enhancing tourism consumption and local product sales [3] Sustainable Practices and Environmental Impact - Ctrip's rural vacation farms have implemented low-carbon hotel models, achieving a 30% reduction in carbon emissions at the Jinzhai Dawan store through renewable energy technologies [7][11] - The Ningxia Zhongning Huangyang Ancient Ruins scenic area has established a photovoltaic project that provides approximately 500,000 kWh of electricity, saving around 200,000 yuan in electricity costs [8] Social Value and ESG Performance - The rural vacation farms have created a model that combines social value with commercial sustainability, enhancing ESG performance and attracting partnerships from government and enterprises [12][13] - The "New Farmers Growth Plan" and the "Rural Revitalization Academy" address the issue of talent hollowing in rural areas, while the farms' low-carbon initiatives provide quantifiable environmental benefits [13][14]