交银国际指出，公司2季度业绩超预期，酒店业务增长好于预期，市占率持续提升。将估值滚动至2026 年，基于20倍2026年市盈率，将公司目标价从591港元/76美元（TCOMUS）上调至653港元/84美元，维 持买入。该行预计3季度收入同比增15%，酒店增18%，主要受到间夜量增长驱动，中国内地市占率继 续扩大。 消息面上，携程集团近日发布2025年二季度业绩，净收入人民币148.43亿元(单位下同)，同比增加 16.22%；归属携程集团有限公司净利润48.46亿元，同比增加26.43%。第二季度，公司国际各业务板块 继续呈现强劲增长态势，国际OTA平台总预订同比增长超过60%；入境旅游预订同比增长超过100%； 出境酒店和机票预订已全面超越2019年疫情前同期的120%水平。 携程集团-S(09961)再涨超5%，盘中高见584.5港元刷新年内新高。截至发稿，涨5.16%，报580.5港元， 成交额12.27亿港元。 ...

消息面上，携程集团近日发布2025年二季度业绩，净收入人民币148.43亿元(单位下同)，同比增加 16.22%；归属携程集团有限公司净利润48.46亿元，同比增加26.43%。第二季度，公司国际各业务板块 继续呈现强劲增长态势，国际OTA平台总预订同比增长超过60%；入境旅游预订同比增长超过100%； 出境酒店和机票预订已全面超越2019年疫情前同期的120%水平。 交银国际指出，公司2季度业绩超预期，酒店业务增长好于预期，市占率持续提升。将估值滚动至2026 年，基于20倍2026年市盈率，将公司目标价从591港元/76美元（TCOMUS）上调至653港元/84美元，维 持买入。该行预计3季度收入同比增15%，酒店增18%，主要受到间夜量增长驱动，中国内地市占率继 续扩大。 智通财经APP获悉，携程集团-S(09961)再涨超5%，盘中高见584.5港元刷新年内新高。截至发稿，涨 5.16%，报580.5港元，成交额12.27亿港元。 ...

暑期国内酒店预订增速快于行业 1)国内酒店：2Q25公司住宿预订收入62亿元，同增21%，超市场预期3%，主要系酒店预订量增长超预 期。暑期行业表现平淡，但携程暑期间夜量表现好于行业，该行预计3Q25公司国内酒店间夜量维持低 两位数同比增长;2)国内交通：基数效应下，暑期航空行业表现偏弱，根据航班管家数据2025.7.1- 2025.8.25全国民航旅客运输量同比增长3%，公司预计3Q25机票预订和收入增长和行业大盘类似。 出境旅游保持韧性 中金发布研报称，基本维持携程集团-S(09961,TCOM.US)25/26年收入预期，考虑到营销费控好于预期， 上调25年非通用准则净利润预测8%至177亿元，维持26年非通用准则净利润预测189亿元。维持跑赢行 业评级，该行切换至26年PE估值法(采用26年20倍PE)，维持美股和港股的目标价75.9美元和588.5港元， 对应美股和港股的25/26非通用准则市盈率21倍和20倍，较当前股价分别有16%和15%的上行空间，公司 目前交易于25/26年美股和港股18倍和17倍非通用准则市盈率。 中金主要观点如下： 2Q25非通用准则净利润高于一致预期 公司公布2Q25业 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，基本维持携程集团-S(09961,TCOM.US)25/26年收入预期，考虑到 营销费控好于预期，上调25年非通用准则净利润预测8%至177亿元，维持26年非通用准则净利润预测 189亿元。维持跑赢行业评级，该行切换至26年PE估值法(采用26年20倍PE)，维持美股和港股的目标价 75.9美元和588.5港元，对应美股和港股的25/26非通用准则市盈率21倍和20倍，较当前股价分别有16% 和15%的上行空间，公司目前交易于25/26年美股和港股18倍和17倍非通用准则市盈率。 中金主要观点如下： 2Q25非通用准则净利润高于一致预期 公司公布2Q25业绩：收入同增16%至149亿元，超过市场预期1%，主要系住宿收入超预期;非通用准则 净利润为50亿元(净利润率34%)，超出市场预期15%，主要系营销费用可控投入，以及政府补贴等其他 收入超预期。公司于年初宣布的4亿美元股东回报计划提前完成，并于25年8月批准不高于50亿美元的新 回购计划。 暑期国内酒店预订增速快于行业 1)国内酒店：2Q25公司住宿预订收入62亿元，同增21%，超市场预期3%，主要系酒店预订量增长超预 ...

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - AI infrastructure investment continues to rise, with Nvidia's outlook indicating strong demand [2] - Nvidia reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $46.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 56% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [2] - The company's Q2 net profit reached $25.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 52% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 30% [2] Group 2: Ctrip (携程) - Ctrip's Q2 FY2025 revenue was RMB 14.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16%, surpassing both internal and market expectations [9] - The non-GAAP operating profit was RMB 4.7 billion, exceeding expectations by 7% and 9% due to better-than-expected operational leverage [9] - The company is expected to maintain resilient growth in travel demand, supported by strong supply chain capabilities and customer service [9] Group 3: SenseTime (商汤科技) - SenseTime reported H1 FY2025 revenue of RMB 2.36 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36%, exceeding expectations by 6% [10] - The adjusted net loss narrowed by 50% to RMB 1.16 billion, driven by operational leverage and organizational adjustments [10] - The company anticipates a 25% year-on-year revenue growth in H2 FY2025, supported by strong demand for AI computing and applications [10] Group 4: Anta Sports (安踏) - Anta's retail sales trends showed a mixed performance, with the main brand experiencing weaker growth while other brands like Descente and Kolon continued to perform strongly [24][25] - The company adjusted its retail growth targets for FY2025, lowering Anta's from high single digits to mid single digits, while maintaining FILA's at mid single digits [25] - Despite challenges, Anta's operational profit margin is expected to remain between 20%-25% due to strict control over operating expenses [25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an updated target price of HKD 653, representing a potential upside of 18.3% from the current price of HKD 552 [2][11]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, driven by better-than-expected growth in hotel business and an increase in market share. The trend of improving marketing efficiency in mainland China is expected to continue. Despite increased competition in overseas markets, the impact on overall profitability is manageable. The valuation has been rolled forward to 2026, with a target price adjustment based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2026 [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2025, total revenue reached RMB 14.864 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16%, slightly above market expectations. The hotel segment grew by 21%, transportation by 11%, and vacation services by 5% [6][7]. - The adjusted net profit for Q2 was RMB 4.846 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 13% [8][14]. - The company expects Q3 revenue to grow by 15%, driven by an 18% increase in hotel bookings, with continued expansion in market share in mainland China [6][8]. Earnings Forecast Changes - Revenue forecasts for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are RMB 61.611 billion, RMB 69.659 billion, and RMB 78.590 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 15.4%, 13.1%, and 12.8% [5][14]. - Adjusted operating profit for 2025E is projected at RMB 17.981 billion, with a margin of 29.2% [5][14]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025E is expected to be RMB 17.974 billion, with a net profit margin of 29.2% [5][14]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is well-positioned in the competitive landscape of the mainland China market, benefiting from effective marketing strategies and a strong recovery in travel demand [2][6]. - The recovery in outbound travel bookings has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, indicating robust growth potential [6][7].

另外，携程董事会8月批准一项新的股份回购计划。据此，公司获授权回购总值不超过50亿美元(约390亿港元)的已发行普通股及/或美国存托凭证(ADS)。 公司日前公布业绩显示，2025年第二季度股东应占净利润91.23亿元，同比升12.01%；每股基本盈利13.82元。收入合计287.14亿元，同比增16.21%。单计 截至6月底止季度，股东应占净利润48.46亿元，同比增26.43%；每股基本盈利7.34元。收入合计148.64亿元，同比升16.23%，超预期。经调整EBITDA为 49亿元，去年同期为44亿元。经调整EBITDA利润率33%，按年降2个百分点。 携程集团-S(9961.HK)高开5.16%，报580.5港元，为绩后连续第二日上涨，股价创年内新高。隔夜美股市场携程大涨14.92%报75.03美元，折算成港股市场 价格为578.96港元/股。 ...

| 英伟达 | | NVDA US | | --- | --- | --- | | Blackwell 部署顺利推进，Rubin | 进度符合预期， | 评级: 买入 | | 对华业务仍存疑 | | | | 收盘价: 美元 181.60 | 目标价: 美元 204.00↑ | 潜在涨幅: +12.3% | | 王大卫, PhD, CFA | Dawei.wang@bocomgroup.com | | 交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 8 月 29 日 今日焦点 Blackwell Ultra 部署推进顺利，但对华出口依然有不确定性：FY2Q26 收 入 467 亿美元，Non-GAAP 毛利率 72.7%，均超过之前指引上限。在不包 括中国市场收入的情况下，管理层指引 FY3Q26 收入中位数 540 亿美元 ，毛利率中位数 73.5%，并认为如果出口条件允许，H20 或额外产生 20- 50 亿美元的收入。管理层称基于 GB200 NVL72 的系统已顺利过渡到 Blackwell Ultra 系统，即基于 GB300 NVL72 的系统已经大规模出货，达每 星期 1000 个机柜，符合我们和市场的预期 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up by 0.39%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.8% [1] - Ctrip Group increased by over 5%, Li Auto by nearly 3%, Kuaishou by over 2%, and JD Group and Baidu Group by over 1% [1] Group 2 - According to Zhongtai International, despite the significant recovery in Hong Kong stock valuations, the Hang Seng Index's forecast PE has returned to nearly the 80th percentile of the past seven years [1] - External monetary policy uncertainty has decreased, and internal policies such as "anti-involution" and industrial support are being strengthened, providing upward support for the market [1] Group 3 - Guotai Junan Securities noted that a rate cut in September seems likely, and given that Hong Kong stocks have significantly retraced their excess relative to A-shares this year, the A-H market will return to a unified starting line [1] - Changes in corporate earnings will drive the performance differences between the two markets [1] Group 4 - Huatai Securities released a strategy report indicating that foreign capital still has room to increase allocation to the Chinese market [1] - Factors include the likelihood of easier overseas liquidity due to monetary policy and financial regulation, as well as an improvement in domestic fundamentals and potential appreciation of the RMB [1] - However, it is noted that the importance of foreign capital in the Hong Kong stock market has decreased, with southbound capital accounting for over 40% of trading in interconnectivity stocks, making the sustainability of future inflows a key focus [1]

周四，携程(TCOM.US)大涨超12%，报73.22美元。消息面上，该公司二季度净收入人民币148.43亿元 (单位下同)，同比增加16.22%;归属携程集团有限公司净利润48.46亿元，同比增加26.43%。公司指出， 第二季度国际各业务板块继续呈现强劲增长态势，国际OTA平台总预订同比增长超过60%;入境旅游预 订同比增长超过100%;出境酒店和机票预订已全面超越2019年疫情前同期的120%水平。 ...