Investment Rating - The investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in the tourism sector, with Ctrip achieving a revenue of 18.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.5% [17] - The report indicates a structural shift in the toy industry, with a net closure of 9 stores in October 2025, leading to a total of 3,967 stores [29] - The restaurant industry is experiencing a contraction in tea supply while coffee continues to grow, with Haidilao focusing on increasing its takeout sales [36] Summary by Sections Ctrip Performance - Ctrip's Q3 2025 revenue reached 18.37 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.5% [17] - The adjusted EBITDA for Ctrip was 6.35 billion yuan, up 11.7% year-on-year [22] - The revenue breakdown shows ticketing, accommodation, vacation, and business travel management growing by 11.6%, 18.3%, 3.1%, and 15.2% respectively [21] Toy Industry - As of October 2025, the number of offline toy stores in China was 3,967, with a net decrease of 9 stores [29] - The average store efficiency for toy brands increased by 10% year-on-year, with top brands like Pop Mart showing significant growth [31] Restaurant Industry - The tea beverage sector is entering a contraction phase, while the coffee sector is accelerating [36] - As of October 2025, the average monthly store efficiency for the tea industry was 212,400 yuan, a 5.8% increase year-on-year [39] - The coffee industry saw a net increase of 5,600 stores, with an average monthly store efficiency of 289,000 yuan, up 1.2% year-on-year [39]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 携程集团-S（09961.HK） 海外市场持续拓展，看好国际业务份额提升 及利润空间 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 44,510 | 53,294 | 61,878 | 69,635 | 76,171 | | 同比（%） | 122.12 | 19.73 | 16.11 | 12.54 | 9.39 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 9,918 | 17,067 | 32,267 | 19,109 | 21,221 | | 同比（%） | 606.91 | 72.08 | 89.06 | (40.78) | 11.05 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 13,071 | 18,041 | 32,263 | 20,009 | 22,023 | | 同比（%） | 910.12 | 38.02 | 78.83 | (37.98) | ...

Core Viewpoint - The draft regulations on personal information protection for large internet platforms have been released, establishing criteria for identifying such platforms and outlining their obligations for personal information protection [1][2]. Group 1: Identification of Large Platforms - The draft specifies that platforms with over 50 million registered users or 10 million monthly active users will be classified as large internet platforms, which includes traditional internet giants and emerging AI companies [3][4]. - Companies like DeepSeek, MiniMax, and Kimi, as well as smart device manufacturers such as OPPO, vivo, and Honor, are also likely to fall under this classification due to their user base [1][3]. Group 2: Responsibilities and Compliance - Large platforms are required to establish dedicated personal information protection teams, appoint responsible personnel, and publish annual social responsibility reports regarding personal information protection [6][7]. - The draft emphasizes the need for platforms to store personal information generated within China in domestic data centers and to conduct compliance audits and risk assessments [7]. Group 3: Independent Supervision - The draft regulations propose the establishment of independent supervisory committees composed mainly of external members to oversee personal information protection compliance [10][11]. - These committees will be responsible for monitoring compliance with personal information protection regulations and will need to maintain regular communication with users [11].

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group-S (09961) maintains a "Buy" rating with Q3 2025 performance slightly exceeding expectations, net revenue increased by 16% year-on-year to 18.4 billion RMB, and operating profit margin stable at 30% [1] Financial Performance - Q3 performance slightly exceeded expectations with net revenue of 18.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16%, surpassing the bank/market expectations by 2%/1% [1] - Accommodation bookings increased by 14% year-on-year, while transportation ticketing revenue rose by 9%, accounting for 44% and 34% of total revenue respectively, contributing 51% and 27% to revenue growth [1] - Gross profit increased by 15% year-on-year with a gross margin of 82%, remaining stable both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1] - Operating profit reached 5.6 billion RMB, an 11% year-on-year increase, exceeding bank/market expectations by 4%/5%, with an operating profit margin rising to 30% [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 19.2 billion RMB, significantly above market expectations of 5.6 billion RMB, primarily reflecting gains from the disposal of overseas investment in MakeMyTrip [1] Operational Data - Domestic hotel ADR and ticket prices saw a slight decline in Q3, with domestic tourism revenue per capita increasing by 5% and total visits up by 13% year-on-year [2] - Outbound hotel and ticket bookings increased by 20% year-on-year, and 40% compared to Q3 2019, indicating a recovery faster than the industry average [2] - International OTA hotel and ticket bookings maintained over 60% year-on-year growth, with the Asia-Pacific market being the largest [2] - Inbound tourism bookings more than doubled year-on-year [2] - TripGenie has expanded to over 200 countries, with user growth exceeding 200% year-on-year [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - During the National Day holiday, outbound hotel and ticket bookings increased by 30%, with strong growth in Europe and stable hotel ADR [3] - Q4 total revenue is expected to grow by 16% year-on-year, with accommodation and transportation bookings projected to increase by 15% and 12% respectively [3] - For 2026, total revenue is forecasted to grow by 14%, with adjusted net profit expected to reach 20.8 billion RMB and a profit margin of 29.6% [3] - The bank is optimistic about the company's long-term profit margin exceeding 30%, driven by supply advantages and improved profitability in overseas operations [3] - The valuation benchmark has been adjusted to 2026, with a target price raised to 693 HKD (9961.HK) / 89 USD (TCOM.US) based on a 20x 2026 P/E ratio [3] - The company continues to invest in AI and overseas markets while maintaining good ROI and financial discipline [3]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group-S (09961) maintains a "Buy" rating with Q3 2025 performance slightly exceeding expectations, net revenue increased by 16% year-on-year to 18.4 billion RMB, and operating profit margin stable at 30% [1] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached 18.4 billion RMB, a 16% year-on-year increase, slightly above the firm's and market expectations by 2% and 1% respectively [2] - Accommodation bookings grew by 14% year-on-year, while transportation ticketing revenue increased by 9%, accounting for 44% and 34% of total revenue, contributing 51% and 27% to revenue growth [2] - Gross profit rose by 15% year-on-year with a gross margin of 82%, remaining stable both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [2] - Operating profit was 5.6 billion RMB, an 11% year-on-year increase, exceeding the firm's and market expectations by 4% and 5% respectively, with an operating profit margin of 30% [2] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 19.2 billion RMB, significantly above market expectations of 5.6 billion RMB, mainly reflecting gains from the disposal of overseas investment in MakeMyTrip [2] Operational Data - Domestic hotel ADR and ticket prices saw a slight decline in Q3, with domestic tourism revenue per capita increasing by 5% and total visits up by 13% year-on-year [3] - Outbound hotel and flight bookings increased by 20% year-on-year, and 40% compared to Q3 2019, indicating a faster recovery than the industry average [3] - International OTA hotel and flight bookings maintained over 60% year-on-year growth, with the Asia-Pacific market being the largest [3] - Inbound travel bookings more than doubled year-on-year [3] - TripGenie has expanded to over 200 countries, with user growth exceeding 200% year-on-year [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - During the National Day holiday, outbound travel hotel and flight bookings increased by 30%, with notable growth in Europe and stable hotel ADR [4] - Q4 total revenue is expected to grow by 16% year-on-year, with accommodation and transportation bookings projected to increase by 15% and 12% respectively [4] - For 2026, total revenue is forecasted to grow by 14%, with adjusted net profit expected to reach 20.8 billion RMB and a profit margin of 29.6% [4] - The firm is optimistic about the company's long-term profit margin exceeding 30%, driven by supply advantages and improved profitability in overseas operations [4] - The valuation benchmark has been adjusted to 2026, with a target price raised to 693 HKD (9961.HK) / 89 USD (TCOM.US) based on a 20x 2026 P/E ratio [4] - The company continues to invest in AI and overseas markets while maintaining good ROI and financial discipline [4]

Core Insights - Ctrip Group reported strong financial performance for Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 18.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%, and a net profit of 19.9 billion yuan [1] - The company benefited from robust travel demand during the peak season, with both domestic and international markets showing healthy growth [1] Revenue Breakdown - Accommodation booking revenue was 8 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year, driven by strong outbound travel and international hotel bookings [1] - Transportation ticketing revenue reached 6.3 billion yuan, a 12% increase year-on-year, supported by strong growth in international air bookings [1] - Vacation revenue was 1.6 billion yuan, growing 3% year-on-year, primarily due to the expansion of international product lines [1] - Business travel management revenue was 756 million yuan, up 15% year-on-year, as more companies adopted this service [1] International Business Performance - The international OTA platform saw total bookings increase by approximately 60%, with the Asia-Pacific region being the largest contributor [2] - Inbound travel bookings more than doubled year-on-year, with strong growth also observed in Europe and the U.S. [2] - Outbound hotel and flight bookings increased nearly 20% year-on-year, reaching 140% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019 [2] Demographic Trends - Demand from both senior and young travelers is strong, indicating a trend of intergenerational diversity [3] - The number of users in the "Old Friends Club" grew over 70%, with affluent senior travelers focusing on quality travel experiences [3] - Young travelers are increasingly driven by experiential tourism, with significant revenue growth in this segment due to events like concerts [3] Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve revenues of 61.56 billion yuan, 70.78 billion yuan, and 80.36 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.5%, 15.0%, and 13.5% respectively [3] - Projected net profits for the same period are 31.92 billion yuan, 20.58 billion yuan, and 23.86 billion yuan, with growth rates of 87.0%, -35.5%, and 15.9% respectively [3] - Ctrip's domestic business advantages and potential growth in international markets suggest long-term investment value, with a target PE of 20.5X for 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group reported strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with significant revenue growth driven by robust travel demand and successful international business expansion [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 18.37 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 15.5% [1]. - Gross margin stood at 81.7%, down 0.7 percentage points year-over-year [1]. - Operating profit reached 5.57 billion yuan, up 11.3% year-over-year [1]. - Net profit soared to 19.89 billion yuan, a remarkable year-over-year increase of 194.0%, primarily due to gains from the disposal of certain investments [1]. Revenue Breakdown - Accommodation booking revenue was 8.05 billion yuan, growing 18.3% year-over-year [1]. - Transportation ticketing revenue reached 6.31 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-over-year [1]. - Vacation business revenue was 1.61 billion yuan, increasing by 3.1% year-over-year [1]. - Business travel management revenue amounted to 0.76 billion yuan, up 15.2% year-over-year [1]. - Other business revenue was 1.65 billion yuan, showing a significant growth of 33.9% year-over-year [1]. International Business Growth - The international OTA platform saw total bookings increase by approximately 60% year-over-year in Q3 2025 [1]. - Inbound tourism bookings more than doubled, growing over 100% year-over-year [1]. - Outbound hotel and flight bookings reached 140% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019, with the Asia-Pacific region being a major contributor to this growth, exceeding 50% overall [1]. Cost Structure - Sales expense ratio was 22.8%, up 1.5 percentage points year-over-year, reflecting increased marketing investments in overseas markets [2]. - Management expense ratio was 6.2%, down 0.4 percentage points year-over-year [2]. - R&D expense ratio was 22.3%, down 0.7 percentage points year-over-year [2]. - Total expense ratio was 51.3%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-over-year [2]. Non-Recurring Gains - The sale of MakeMyTrip shares resulted in other income of 17.03 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a substantial increase from 1.78 billion yuan in the same period last year [2]. - This transaction led to a significant rise in corporate income tax expenses to 3.3 billion yuan, compared to 720 million yuan in the previous year [2]. Investment Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading domestic OTA, with steady growth in domestic operations and promising progress in international expansion [2]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 61.68 billion yuan, 70.16 billion yuan, and 79.54 billion yuan, with net profits of 31.65 billion yuan, 20.62 billion yuan, and 23.59 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The target market capitalization is set at 452.4 billion HKD, with a target price of 635 HKD per share, indicating a potential upside of 12.3% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong growth in Q3 2025, with net operating income reaching 18.3 billion yuan (YoY +16%) and net profit attributable to shareholders at 19.9 billion yuan (YoY +194%) [1] Group 1: Overall Performance - The company's Q3 2025 net operating income and net profit attributable to shareholders showed robust year-on-year growth, driven by resilient domestic tourism demand, high growth in cross-border/international business, and a one-time gain from the sale of MMYT.O [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of outbound tourism and the development of inbound tourism, alongside continuous improvements in its global OTA platform and the application of AIGC in the cultural tourism sector [1] Group 2: Domestic Business - Diverse travel demands are driving steady growth in the domestic market, with significant increases in bookings from remote areas like Urumqi, Hohhot, and Lhasa, which saw nearly 30% year-on-year growth [2] - The company is targeting the silver-haired market, with user numbers and total transaction volume for its "Old Friends Club" growing over 70% year-on-year [2] - Collaborations with several entertainment companies have been established to further drive revenue growth in the youth travel segment [2] Group 3: Outbound Business - The outbound business continues to grow steadily, with cross-border flight capacity recovering to 88% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019, and hotel and flight bookings for outbound travel increasing nearly 20% year-on-year, reaching 140% of 2019 levels [2] Group 4: Global OTA Business - The international OTA platform saw total bookings increase by approximately 60% year-on-year, with significant contributions from the Asia-Pacific region, and mobile platforms accounting for over 70% of total bookings [3] - Inbound tourism bookings surged over 100% year-on-year, with the Asia-Pacific region remaining the primary source of inbound tourists, while Europe and the US markets also showed strong growth [3] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - As a leading player in the OTA industry, the company is expected to benefit from the release of domestic tourism demand, the recovery of inbound and outbound tourism, and the deepening of its global OTA business [3] - The company forecasts net operating income of 61.9 billion, 70.1 billion, and 79.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 31.8 billion, 20.4 billion, and 22.9 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to diluted EPS of 48.6, 31.3, and 34.8 yuan [3] - The target market value for the company in 2026 is set at 440.5 billion yuan, with a target price of 678 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Core Viewpoint - In Q3 2025, Trip.com Group achieved revenue of 18.367 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.52%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 19.156 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 221%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] Revenue Summary - Q3 revenue of 18.367 billion RMB surpassed guidance of 18.1 billion RMB, with transportation ticketing revenue at 6.306 billion RMB (up 11.61%), hotel revenue at 8.047 billion RMB (up 18.30%), vacation revenue at 1.606 billion RMB (up 3.08%), and business travel revenue at 0.756 billion RMB (up 5.00%) [2] - Domestic business revenue accounted for approximately 65% of total revenue, growing at nearly 10%, while outbound business revenue represented close to mid-teens percentage with similar growth [2] - Pure overseas business revenue exceeded 20% of total revenue, growing at around 40%, with Trip.com contributing about 13% and growing at 60-65% [2] Profit Summary - Gross profit for Q3 was 14.979 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.58%, with a gross margin of 81.68%, a slight decline of 0.68 percentage points [3] - Non-GAAP net profit of 19.156 billion RMB was significantly boosted by a one-time after-tax gain of approximately 13.3 billion RMB from the disposal of MMYT shares [3] - Excluding the impact of MMYT, net profit margin declined year-on-year, primarily due to the increased share of international business and higher investments [3] Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 61.858 billion RMB and 71.929 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth of 16.06% and 16.27%, respectively [4] - Non-GAAP net profits for the same periods are expected to be 31.687 billion RMB and 23.267 billion RMB, with growth rates of 75.64% and a decline of 26.57% [4] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 715.52 HKD, corresponding to a 20X PE for 2026 [4]

记者丨高江虹 编辑丨高梦阳 11月18日，携程集团公布2025年第三季度财报，数据显示单季净利润达到199亿元，同比大幅增长 194%，创下净利润超过营业收入的罕见记录。 这一利润表现背后，是一项精明的跨境投资退出决策。携程通过出售所持印度在线旅游巨头 MakeMyTrip部分股权，一举获得约170亿元巨额收益。 "这主要得益于处置某些投资所得，"携程CFO王肖璠在业绩发布会上坦言。她所指的，正是携程对 MakeMyTrip这笔历时九年的投资。不过，剔除这笔投资收益，携程第三季度净利润并没有那么可观， 远低于去年同期的68亿元。 下一步，携程要如何向投资者描绘增长曲线？ | TCOM Financial Results Recap | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RMB '00mn | 3Q23 | 4Q23 | 1Q24 | 2Q24 | 3Q24 | 4Q24 | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3025 | 3Q25E | var. | | ...