AI相关个股普遍走低，英伟达下跌3.8%，博通下跌4.5%，AMD下跌5.3%，甲骨文下跌5.4%，特斯拉下 跌4.6%。 期货日报网讯（记者 肖佳煊）当地时间12月17日，美股三大指数收跌，截至当日收盘，道指跌228.29 点，跌幅为0.47%，报47885.97点；纳指跌418.14点，跌幅为1.81%，报22693.32点；标普500指数跌 78.83点，跌幅为1.16%，报6721.43点。 科技股领跌。阿斯麦、甲骨文、超威半导体跌超5%，特斯拉、博通跌超4%，英伟达、台积电、英特 尔、谷歌-A跌超3%，高通跌超2%，Meta、苹果跌超1%，亚马逊、波音、微软小幅下跌；奈飞小幅上 涨。 热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌0.73%。虎牙、拼多多、蔚来、理想汽车跌超3%，爱 奇艺、老虎证券、小鹏汽车跌超2%，富途控股、阿里巴巴、网易、金山云跌超1%；百度、新东方小幅 上涨，携程涨超1%。 此前，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒周三表示支持进一步降息，让利率回到中性水平，同时也表示决策 者无需操之过急。沃勒表示，在通胀持续放缓至2026年的情景下，当前货币政策利率水平较中性利率高 出多达100个基点。 ...

"天下苦携程久矣！"这句呐喊道出了无数民宿经营者的心声。 12月8日，云南省旅游民宿行业协会发布《关于启动OTA不正当竞争反垄断维权工作的决定》，正式拉 开了对抗携程的序幕。 12月17日，市场监管总局举行新闻发布会，释放出重磅信号。 平台要求商家"全网最低价"可能构成滥用市场支配地位或垄断协议行为。 此次发布的《互联网平台反垄断合规指引（征求意见稿）》明确列出8类新型垄断风险，直指算法黑 箱、"二选一"等行业痛点。 来源 花椒财经 就在监管利剑高悬之际，一场行业自发的维权行动也在悄然升温。 12月8日，云南民宿协会正式向携程宣战，公开征集其反垄断证据，从"二选一"霸王条款到乱涨佣金， 剑指平台多年来的不正当竞争行为。 01 云南民宿协会"硬刚"携程 据协会公告显示，此次维权绝非临时起意，而是源于长期积累的行业矛盾。 公告提到，近年来协会接到大量会员投诉，反映携程等OTA平台利用市场支配地位，实施"二选一"、单 方面涨佣、设置不公平交易条件、屏蔽流量等行为，严重侵害经营者合法权益，破坏市场公平竞争秩 序。 为确保维权成效，协会已聘请专项律师团队，全面征集相关证据，一旦证据确凿，将代表全体受害会员 向国家及云南 ...

大消费行业主题报告 20251217 摘要 新消费需求涌现，推动大消费板块发展，体现在新产品（个性化、绿色 低碳）、新渠道（零食连锁、折扣业态）和新业态（多元消费场景）三 个方向，并受"十五五"规划支持。 传统消费行业预计 2026 年回暖，居民购买力释放，行业调整修复。食 品饮料行业企稳，白酒基本面或稳定，乳制品有望快速修复。关注提振 就业、增收稳预期等政策措施。 大宗商品市场前高后低，国家出台多维度促销政策提振服务性消费和内 需，商务部等部委发布扩大服务性消费政策意见，旨在通过提升居民生 活质量激发内需潜力。 社会服务领域，旅游出行和美妆零售酝酿变化，消费者转向理性性价比 和精神追求。携程、华住等头部企业通过技术创新和营销满足新兴旅游 需求，中国中免海南业务受益于离岛免税新政。 食品饮料板块筑底企稳，白酒基本面筑底，大众消费具韧性，估值低位。 零食板块业绩分化，新产品红利释放。乳制品需求平稳，供给逐渐出清。 餐饮供应链景气度回升，预制食品龙头竞争优势凸显。 Q&A 2026 年大消费行业的整体趋势和主要推动因素是什么？ 2026 年作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，预计消费刺激政策将持续落地，有 效释放居民消 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the competitive landscape of the online travel market in China, particularly focusing on Ctrip's hotel booking business and the challenges it faces from various competitors like Meituan, Douyin, and JD.com [3][4][9]. Group 1: Market Overview - The online travel market in China, especially hotel bookings, has become a battleground for major players, with Ctrip maintaining a significant market share despite increasing competition [3][4]. - As of 2024, the market size of China's hotel industry has exceeded 980 billion yuan, with a chain rate of only 40%, significantly lower than North America and Europe [5][10]. Group 2: Ctrip's Performance - Ctrip reported over 8 billion yuan in accommodation bookings for Q3, contributing nearly half of its revenue, with a growth rate of around 20% expected to continue over the next two years [4][6]. - Ctrip has established partnerships with nearly 2 million hotels globally, with over 400,000 having exclusive agreements, allowing it to dominate the high-star hotel booking market with an 80% share [6][9]. Group 3: Competitive Challenges - Ctrip faces challenges from competitors like Meituan, which has expanded into the high-end hotel market, and Douyin, which has begun allowing direct bookings through its platform [8][9][10]. - The rise of direct sales channels by hotel groups, such as Huazhu and Atour, is reducing their reliance on OTA platforms like Ctrip, posing a significant threat to its intermediary role [9][10]. Group 4: Customer Trust and Service - Ctrip's competitive edge lies in its mature customer service system and the ability to handle complex issues related to bookings, which enhances user trust [7][8]. - High customer loyalty is evident, with repeat customers contributing approximately 80% of total transaction volume, compared to the industry average retention rate of 55% [7][8]. Group 5: Issues and Complaints - Ctrip has faced criticism for practices like "data killing familiarity," where users are charged higher prices despite being members, leading to legal challenges and a high volume of complaints [8][9].

01 最近一份道歉信在酒店业内引发高度关注。 与以往的消费维权事件不同的是，这份道歉信竟然是消费者写给酒店的，而且是在法院监督之下公开发 布的。 这倒是颇为稀罕了。 根据这份名为《致张掖御景国际酒店的道歉信》显示，一位郑姓消费者于今年6月在携程预订入住了张 掖御景国际酒店，随即在6月29日却在平台上给该酒店发布一则差评，内容包括"卫生很差、床单有血 迹、毛巾有异味、热水不稳定等"。 然而令人意外的是，这家酒店根本不受一点窝囊气，直接正面硬刚，一纸诉状将其告到法院，控诉郑姓 消费者"不实评价、恶意诋毁、给酒店声誉和经营造成极端恶劣影响"。 更让人出乎意料的是，这场官司以酒店100% 成功反杀告终，这位恶意差评的郑姓消费者受到法院一系 列严厉惩罚： 当事人在判决生效后十日内删除其在平台发布的差评； 在平台发布赔礼道歉、澄清事实内容，保持30天； 支付给酒店名誉损失费、经济损失费等3.5万元； 不知大家是否注意到，去年以来酒店业面对诸多恶意差评，选择正面硬刚的越来越多。 去年7月，云南大理爆出首例民宿老板起诉消费者名誉侵权案，该案件同样源于消费者在平台上对民宿 进行违背客观事实的恶意差评。虽然结果是双方在法院调解下 ...

Industry Overview - The service consumption sector in China has significant growth potential, with the current GDP per capita exceeding $13,000, indicating a shift from goods to service consumption as the economy matures [4][7][24] - The proportion of development-oriented and enjoyment-oriented service consumption in China is relatively low, particularly in cultural, leisure, and health sectors, suggesting substantial room for improvement [4][7][24] - Recent government policies at both central and local levels have been introduced to support service consumption, focusing on the needs of the elderly and Generation Z, which are expected to drive growth in health, tourism, and new consumption sectors [4][7][24] Tourism and Travel - The domestic tourism market is projected to grow significantly, with 4.998 billion trips expected in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase [8][46] - The government has implemented various supportive policies to enhance tourism, including the issuance of travel vouchers and promotional activities to stimulate demand [8][58] - The tourism industry is undergoing consolidation, with companies optimizing resources and enhancing operational efficiency to drive high-quality development [8][58] Local Lifestyle - The restaurant industry is expected to see steady growth, although there is significant market differentiation, with high-end dining facing challenges while mass dining remains robust [10][10] - The tea beverage sector is experiencing growth driven by delivery services, with leading brands expanding their store presence despite potential challenges from subsidy reductions [10][10] - Meituan is facing increased competition in the delivery market, with a focus on improving operational efficiency and service quality to enhance long-term value [10][10] Education and Employment - The education sector is gradually recovering, with leading institutions expected to gain market share due to their brand strength and resource capabilities [11][11] - The human resources sector is seeing structural demand recovery, with AI technology providing opportunities for cost reduction and efficiency improvements [11][11] Summary of Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are concentrated in sectors that combine valuation safety margins with growth logic, particularly in health, tourism, and new consumption areas driven by demographic changes [4][7][24]

With 2026 approaching, let's revisit the controversies that dominated headlines and group chats, trended across social media, unnerved investors, and forced the ecosystem to confront uncomfortable questionsThe scale and speed of controversies intensified, leading to tangible consequences such as arrests, asset freezes, market bans, and leadership exits2025 marked a shift from behind-the-scenes disputes to public meltdowns, with founders, regulators and platforms clashing in real time across courts, markets ...

今天分享的是：2025年文旅行业新媒体营销趋势报告 报告共计：35页 2025文旅新媒体营销八大趋势：从流量收割到价值共创的全域变革 在数字化浪潮的持续推动下，文旅行业的营销逻辑正在发生根本性转变。过去依赖广泛曝光的"广播式"传播逐渐失灵，取而代之的是以数据为驱动、以情感 共鸣为核心、以技术赋能为支撑的全新营销范式。根据最新发布的《2025文旅行业新媒体营销趋势报告》，行业正朝着"品效销合一"与"价值共创"方向深度 演进，涌现出八大关键趋势，为文旅品牌的长远发展提供了清晰的路径参考。 趋势一：营销目标升级，走向"品效销合一"的全链路融合 传统营销往往将品牌曝光与销售转化割裂，而在2025年的文旅营销中，二者正日益融合为统一链路。品牌不再满足于短期声量，而是将产品设计、内容传播 与用户运营紧密结合，实现品牌认知与销售增长的双重提升。以携程"爸妈旅行守护官"为例，该项目通过创意岗位招聘引发社会讨论，再借助UGC内容裂 变，最终推动相关旅游产品GMV提升300%，完成从话题到生意的完整闭环。这标志着文旅营销已进入"轻量化破圈、高效率转化"的新阶段。 趋势二：平台共建取代单纯投放，生态共融放大流量效应 文旅品牌与社交 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Yunnan Tourism Homestay Industry Association has initiated legal actions against Ctrip for alleged anti-competitive practices, marking the first time an industry association has publicly called for collective complaints against a major platform since the Anti-Monopoly Law took effect in 2008 [6][4]. Group 1: Legal Actions and Industry Response - The association has engaged legal advisors to collect evidence and analyze the situation, with plans to file collective complaints once sufficient evidence is gathered [4][10]. - This action represents a shift from individual grievances to a coordinated legal approach, indicating a serious escalation in the conflict between small businesses and Ctrip [12][33]. - Previous regulatory actions against Ctrip included discussions about pricing order maintenance, but the current initiative directly addresses issues like "choose one from two" practices [7][11]. Group 2: Ctrip's Financial Performance - Ctrip reported a revenue of 18.3 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a 16% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 19.9 billion yuan, showcasing strong financial health despite the ongoing industry challenges [13][14]. - The company's gross profit margin remains above 80%, significantly outperforming other internet giants like Tencent and Alibaba [14][30]. - In contrast, the hotel industry in Beijing reported a 7.3% decline in revenue and a staggering 92.9% drop in profit, highlighting the disparity between Ctrip's success and the struggles of traditional hospitality businesses [16][18]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Ctrip's Dominance - Ctrip holds a market share of approximately 56% in the OTA sector, and when including its affiliated platforms, its control exceeds 70% [22][23]. - The reliance of hotels on OTA channels is significant, with 63% of hotel orders coming from these platforms, indicating Ctrip's substantial influence over pricing and market rules [23][24]. - Ctrip's business model, characterized by low asset requirements and high commission rates, allows it to profit regardless of the financial health of its partner hotels [25][26]. Group 4: Implications for the Industry - The actions taken by the Yunnan association could set a precedent for other regional associations to follow, potentially leading to broader challenges against Ctrip's business practices [35][36]. - The situation poses a critical test for Ctrip, as it may face increased scrutiny and legal challenges from various industry stakeholders [36][37].

(3) 自主可控的弹性标的：阿里巴巴、百度集团、中芯国际、华虹半导体 (4)AI弹性标的：快手、哔哩哔哩、金蝶国际、地平线机器人、小鹏汽车、阅文集团、网易、舜宇光学 科技、优必选 财通证券郝艳辉发布互联网年度策略报告，认为寻找下一个有短期或者长期业绩预期差、或者AI进展 可能有惊喜的标的，是2026年的核心任务。 在操作建议上，该报告认为，恒生科技价值投资是主线。基于前面对恒生科技指数的判断和产业的判 断，叠加港股分母端带来的波动性，以及可做空机制带来的操作空间，操作的关键在于选到基本面真正 优秀且可持续性发展能力的标的。 2026年，以下标的值得关注： (1) 当前在底部或股价还在调整、且2026年基本面有很大可能反转的标的：美团、小米集团(布局下一款 车)、比亚迪电子 (2)赚EPS收益+EPS或超预期带来估值提升机会的标的：腾讯控股、携程集团、京东健康、联想集团 (5) 有潜力的小市值公司：浪潮数字企业、心动公司、汇量科技 个股推荐理由： 重点标的观点展望：快手、哔哩哔哩、地平线机器人、小鹏汽车、舜宇光学科技、优必选 重点优质中小市值标的观点展望：浪潮数字企业、汇量科技 腾讯控股：研究框架与要点，为什么 ...