Core Viewpoint - Trip.com is experiencing a mixed performance in the market, with a recent share price of $64.89 and a notable increase of 9.49% over the last month, outperforming both the Consumer Discretionary sector and the S&P 500 [1][2]. Financial Performance - The upcoming earnings release is anticipated to show an EPS of $0.91, reflecting a 9% decline year-over-year, while revenue is projected at $2.2 billion, indicating a 16.65% increase from the same quarter last year [2]. - Full-year estimates predict earnings of $3.36 per share and revenue of $7.35 billion, representing year-over-year growth of +22.63% and +18.09% respectively [3]. Analyst Sentiment - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Trip.com are crucial, as positive revisions indicate optimism regarding the company's business and profitability [3][4]. - The Zacks Rank system currently rates Trip.com as 3 (Hold), with the consensus EPS estimate remaining unchanged over the past month [5]. Valuation Metrics - Trip.com is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 19.37, which is slightly lower than the industry average of 19.61, suggesting a relative discount [6]. - The Leisure and Recreation Services industry, which includes Trip.com, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 102, placing it in the top 41% of over 250 industries [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com (TCOM) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings potential, which is expected to drive buying pressure and increase its stock price [1][2]. Earnings Outlook - For the fiscal year ending December 2024, Trip.com is projected to earn $3.36 per share, reflecting a 22.6% increase from the previous year's reported figure [5]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Trip.com has risen by 5.6%, indicating a trend of increasing earnings estimates [5]. Impact of Earnings Estimates - The correlation between changes in earnings estimates and stock price movements is strong, with institutional investors using these estimates to assess fair value, leading to significant buying or selling actions that affect stock prices [3]. - The Zacks rating system effectively utilizes earnings estimate revisions to classify stocks, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [4]. Zacks Rating System - The Zacks rating system maintains a balanced distribution of 'buy' and 'sell' ratings across over 4000 stocks, with only the top 5% receiving a 'Strong Buy' rating, indicating superior earnings estimate revisions [6]. - The upgrade of Trip.com to a Zacks Rank 1 places it in the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting potential for near-term price appreciation [6].

Core Viewpoint - Growth stocks are appealing due to their potential for above-average financial growth, but identifying the right ones can be challenging due to associated risks and volatility. Trip.com (TCOM) is highlighted as a strong growth stock based on its favorable Growth Score and Zacks Rank [1]. Earnings Growth - Trip.com has a historical EPS growth rate of 37.2%, with projected EPS growth of 22.6% for the current year, significantly outperforming the industry average of 13.8% [3]. Cash Flow Growth - The company exhibits a remarkable year-over-year cash flow growth of 374.8%, compared to the industry average of -21.4%. Over the past 3-5 years, Trip.com has maintained an annualized cash flow growth rate of 20.9%, while the industry average stands at -1.3% [4]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - The current-year earnings estimates for Trip.com have been revised upward, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing by 1.7% over the past month, indicating a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions [5]. Overall Positioning - Trip.com has achieved a Growth Score of B and a Zacks Rank of 2, positioning it well for potential outperformance in the growth stock category, making it an attractive option for growth investors [6].

Group 1: Company Overview - Trip.com (TCOM) currently holds a Momentum Style Score of A and a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) [2][6] - The company has seen significant price increases, with shares up 11.59% over the past week and 30.61% over the past month [3] - Over the past quarter, TCOM shares have risen 29.21%, and they are up 79.56% in the last year, outperforming the S&P 500 which moved 3.54% and 35.24% respectively [4] Group 2: Market Performance - TCOM's average 20-day trading volume is 7,454,343 shares, indicating strong market interest [4] - The Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry has remained flat over the past week, contrasting with TCOM's performance [3] Group 3: Earnings Outlook - In the past two months, one earnings estimate for TCOM has moved higher, increasing the consensus estimate from $3.16 to $3.36 [5] - For the next fiscal year, one estimate has also moved upwards with no downward revisions [5]

Group 1 - Trip.com (TCOM) shares increased by 8.1% to close at $53.06, supported by strong trading volume, and have gained 15.9% over the past four weeks [1] - The rise in Trip.com shares follows China's announcement of significant stimulus measures, marking the largest since the pandemic [1] - The company is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.94 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 6%, while revenues are projected to be $2.2 billion, an increase of 16.6% from the previous year [1] Group 2 - The consensus EPS estimate for Trip.com has been revised 1.2% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a positive trend that typically leads to price appreciation [2] - Trip.com is ranked 3 (Hold) by Zacks, while another company in the same industry, Carnival (CCL), has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) [2] - Carnival's EPS estimate has increased by 15.1% over the past month to $1.16, representing a year-over-year change of 34.9% [2]

Group 1: Travel Trends and Destinations - Chinese travellers are increasingly exploring lesser-known destinations, with significant booking growth in cities like Yokohama, Takayama, and Ito in Japan, and Granada and Seville in Europe [5][3] - The top outbound destinations for Chinese travellers include Japan, Thailand, South Korea, and several others, with a notable drop in average air ticket prices [2][3] - Long-haul travel is on the rise, with destinations such as Australia, the United States, and several European countries seeing longer stays, often exceeding 10 to 14 days [3][4] Group 2: Accommodation Preferences - There is a growing preference for high-quality, mid-tier accommodations among travellers, with 5-star hotel bookings in Europe experiencing nearly three times the year-on-year growth compared to Asia-Pacific [2][3] - Hotel bookings are peaking around the Golden Week holiday, with an average length of stay exceeding seven days [1][4] Group 3: Visa Applications and Travel Planning - Travellers are planning further in advance, submitting visa applications an average of 68 days before their trips, which is 29 days earlier than the previous year [4] - The top countries for visa applications during the National Day holiday include Japan, South Korea, and the United States [4] Group 4: Live Entertainment Impact - Live entertainment is significantly influencing travel trends, with a high percentage of millennials attending concerts and events during the holiday period [6][7] - Hotels near concert venues in Singapore have seen a 214% increase in unique views, indicating a strong demand for proximity to entertainment events [7] Group 5: Inbound Tourism Dynamics - There is a notable increase in inbound tourism, with many top outbound destinations also serving as major inbound markets for China [8] - Thailand and Singapore rank high in inbound tourism, benefiting from mutual visa exemptions with China [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $61.52, indicating a potential upside of 30.0% from the current stock price of $47.33 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated resilience in its domestic business while continuing to experience high growth in outbound and overseas markets. In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue and adjusted net profit of RMB 127.9 billion and RMB 49.9 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 13.5% and 45.2% [1]. - The company’s domestic travel segment showed steady performance, with significant growth in accommodation bookings and travel management services. The international OTA platform also saw a revenue increase of approximately 70% year-on-year in Q2 2024 [1][2]. - The company’s profitability improved significantly, with an adjusted net profit margin of 39.0%, up 8.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by cost optimization and increased income from joint ventures [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company reported revenues of RMB 247.1 billion and adjusted net profits of RMB 90.4 billion, reflecting year-on-year increases of 20.7% and 64.4%, respectively [1]. - The company’s Q2 2024 revenue and adjusted net profit were RMB 127.9 billion and RMB 49.9 billion, showing year-on-year growth of 13.5% and 45.2% [1]. Business Segments - In H1 2024, revenue from accommodation bookings, transportation tickets, vacation packages, business travel management, and other services were RMB 96.3 billion, RMB 98.7 billion, RMB 19.1 billion, RMB 11.4 billion, and RMB 21.5 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.0%, 10.0%, 72.2%, 11.2%, and 34.5% [1]. - The company’s international OTA platform continued to expand rapidly, with Q2 2024 revenue growth of approximately 70% year-on-year [1][2]. Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for Q2 2024 was 81.8%, with R&D, sales, and management expense ratios of 23.4%, 22.2%, and 8.4%, respectively [1]. - The adjusted net profit margin improved to 39.0%, indicating a significant enhancement in profitability [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 492 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 33% from the current price of 370.2 HKD [2]. Core Views - The company reported revenue of 12.77 billion HKD for Q2 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%, with adjusted operating profit of 4.23 billion HKD, up 21.7% year-on-year. Net profit surged to 3.89 billion HKD, reflecting a 500% increase, while non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.98 billion HKD, up 45.2% year-on-year [2]. - The company has seen robust growth in outbound travel, with overseas bookings recovering to 120% and 110% of 2019 levels during the May Day and Dragon Boat Festival holidays, respectively [2]. - The report highlights a significant optimization in R&D expenses, with R&D, marketing, and management expense ratios at 23.4%, 22.2%, and 8.4%, respectively [2]. - The company is expected to maintain a growth rate faster than the industry, driven by increased online penetration and customer acquisition advantages [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 12.77 billion HKD, with the accommodation segment growing by 19.9% to 5.14 billion HKD, transportation revenue at 4.87 billion HKD, up 1.2%, and vacation services at 1.03 billion HKD, up 42.0% [2]. - The company’s gross margin stood at 81.9%, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 33.1%, reflecting improvements in operational efficiency [2]. - The financial forecast for 2024-2026 estimates revenues of 52.0 billion HKD, 59.5 billion HKD, and 67.4 billion HKD, respectively, with non-GAAP net profits projected at 17.0 billion HKD, 19.5 billion HKD, and 22.2 billion HKD [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with significant growth in overseas business [5] - The recovery of outbound travel has reached pre-pandemic levels, with strong growth anticipated in the second half of the year [5] - The international platform Trip.com showed impressive growth, contributing positively to the overall revenue [5] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 20,039 million, with projections of 44,510 million for 2023, 52,814 million for 2024, and 60,610 million for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 122.12% in 2023 and 18.66% in 2024 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1,403 million in 2022, expected to rise to 9,918 million in 2023, 14,628 million in 2024, and 16,661 million in 2025, showing a remarkable year-on-year increase of 606.91% in 2023 and 47.49% in 2024 [2] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2024 was 44 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 35%, up by 2 percentage points year-on-year [5] Market Data Summary - The closing price of the stock is HKD 370.20, with a one-year low of HKD 251.40 and a high of HKD 452.20 [4] - The market capitalization is approximately 253,041.98 million HKD [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the forecast for adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 to 16,853 million, 18,933 million, and 20,905 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 29%, 12%, and 10% [5] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 14 for 2024, 12 for 2025, and 11 for 2026 [5]

出境游/国际业务高增,助推 Q2 业绩超预期 核心观点 ● ● +14%;归母净利 38亿元人民币/同比+507%;Non-GAAP 净利润 50 亿元人 民币/同比+46%。 2Q24 住宿预订增长好于交通,商旅、度假业务受益低基数持续增长。分 板块:1) 住宿预订服务实现营收 51 亿元/同比+20%,环比+14%,虽然国内 一不利影响;2)交通票务服务实现营收 49亿元/同比+1%/环比-3%,主要因 2Q24 机票价格波动。3) 旅游度假业务实现营收 10 亿元/同比+42%/环比 +16%,得益于旅游度假预订需求和节假日旅游需求增长。4)商旅管理业务实 现营收 6.3 亿元/同比+8%/环比+24%,主要受季节性影响。 ● 出境游/国际业务保持高增,入境游开始贡献增量。出境游方面,截至 2Q24, 公司出境游机酒预订已全面恢复至 2019 年同期水平,五一和端午预定量较 2019年分别+20%和+10%,且出境跟团游以成倍的速率增长。海外业务方面, 公司国际 OTA 平台营收同比+70%,占总营收的10.5%左右,其中,入境游板 块表现出色,1H24营收同比+150%,免签地区游客营收同比+190% ...