Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer [4][6]. Core Views - Qingdao Beer reported a revenue of 28.96 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.99 billion yuan, an increase of 1.7% [1]. - The company experienced a narrowing decline in both volume and price in Q3, with revenue of 8.89 billion yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.35 billion yuan, down 9% [2][3]. - Despite a challenging market environment, the company is expected to continue benefiting from lower barley prices, which will help improve profit margins [4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For Q3 2024, Qingdao Beer achieved a revenue of 8.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.35 billion yuan, down 9% [1][2]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 41.76%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.03 percentage points, attributed to lower raw material costs [3]. Sales and Market Strategy - The company increased its marketing expenditures significantly in Q3, leading to a sales expense ratio of 14.08%, up 2.41 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Qingdao Beer has actively engaged in promotional activities, including hosting numerous beer festivals and marketing around major international events [3]. Volume and Price Trends - In Q3 2024, the sales volume was 2.155 million kiloliters, down 5.1% year-on-year, with high-end product sales declining by only 4.7% [2]. - The average price per ton in Q3 was 4,126 yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe compared to Q2 [2]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued pressure on sales volume for the remainder of the year, with a projected decline of 7% year-on-year for the first three quarters [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 4.415 billion yuan, 4.846 billion yuan, and 5.171 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 4%, 2%, and 2% [4].

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Tsingtao Brewery [1] Core Views - Tsingtao Brewery's Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 8.89 billion, down 5.3% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.35 billion, down 9.0% YoY [1] - Q1-3 2024 revenue was RMB 28.96 billion, down 6.5% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.69 billion, up 2.0% YoY [1] - The company is actively controlling inventory and preparing for next year, with channel inventory continuing to decline [1] - High-end product sales outperformed overall sales, with Q3 high-end product volume up 4.1% YoY [1] - Gross margin improved by 1.2 percentage points YoY to 42.1% in Q3, driven by cost savings [1] - Sales expenses increased due to offline promotions and Olympic advertising, leading to a slight decline in net profit margin [1] Financial Performance and Forecasts - 2024E revenue is expected to be RMB 32.125 billion, down 5.3% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.35 billion, up 1.9% YoY [2] - 2025E revenue is forecasted to grow 2.9% YoY to RMB 33.065 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.92 billion, up 13.1% YoY [2] - 2026E revenue is projected to increase 2.8% YoY to RMB 34.004 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 5.425 billion, up 10.3% YoY [2] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 40.6% in 2024E to 44.6% in 2026E [2] - ROE is forecasted to be 19.9% in 2024E, declining to 16.8% in 2026E [2] Operational Highlights - Q3 2024 sales volume decreased by 5.1% YoY, while average selling price (ASP) declined by 0.2% YoY [1] - Q1-3 2024 sales volume decreased by 7.0% YoY, with ASP increasing by 0.5% YoY [1] - High-end product sales volume in Q1-3 2024 decreased by 6.2% YoY, but still outperformed overall sales [1] - The company's cost savings helped offset increased marketing expenses, supporting profitability [1] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - Current stock price implies a P/E ratio of 21.48x for 2024E, declining to 17.23x by 2026E [2] - EV/EBITDA is expected to decrease from 12.44x in 2024E to 8.61x in 2026E [2] - The company's focus on inventory control and cost management is expected to support recovery in revenue and profit margins in 2025 [1] - Maintain "Buy" rating based on the company's strategic initiatives and improving profitability outlook [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer (600600) with a target price of 90 CNY, compared to the current price of 68.51 CNY [1][2]. Core Views - The report highlights that despite a challenging market environment with weak demand, Qingdao Beer is managing to reduce channel inventory and maintain operational stability. The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the restaurant sector and improved cost management in the coming year [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, Qingdao Beer reported total revenue of 28.959 billion CNY, a decrease of 6.5% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.990 billion CNY, an increase of 1.96%, while the net profit for the third quarter was 1.348 billion CNY, down 7.94% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company’s operating income for Q3 was 8.891 billion CNY, reflecting a decline of 9.03% year-on-year. The gross profit margin improved slightly to 14% [2][4]. - The report notes that the sales volume in Q3 decreased by 5.1% year-on-year, which is slightly weaker than the industry average, but inventory levels are being effectively managed [2][4]. Cost and Expense Management - The report indicates that while the cost of goods sold has decreased by 2.2% to 2,388 CNY per ton, the overall expense ratio has increased, primarily due to higher marketing expenditures aimed at boosting sales [2][4]. - The increase in sales expenses by 14.1% is attributed to both offline promotional activities and increased advertising during the Olympic season [2][4]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that Qingdao Beer will enter a phase of recovery with a focus on cost management and inventory reduction. The company is expected to benefit from favorable barley pricing and a potential recovery in consumer demand linked to the restaurant sector [2][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024 is projected at 3.22 CNY, with expectations of gradual growth in subsequent years [2][4].

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for the third quarter was RMB 8,890,980,567, a decrease of 5.28% compared to the same period last year[3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1,348,236,830, down 9.03% year-on-year[3] - The revenue from high-end products increased by 0.49%, contributing to a total revenue of RMB 28.96 billion for the first three quarters, which is a 1.67% increase year-on-year[4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was RMB 4,686,182,141, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.96%[4] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of RMB 6,230,708,571, an increase of 22.55% year-on-year[3] Sales and Market Strategy - The cumulative product sales for the first three quarters reached 6.785 million kiloliters, with the main brand "Tsingtao Beer" accounting for 3.835 million kiloliters[4] - The company has increased its market sales expenses and promotional efforts to actively explore new markets amid a sluggish domestic beer market[4] Assets and Equity - The company's total assets at the end of the reporting period were RMB 50,371,239,687, an increase of 2.26% from the previous year[3] - The total equity attributable to shareholders increased by 8.55% to RMB 29,797,280,806 compared to the previous year[3] Shareholder Information - The largest shareholder, Hong Kong Central Clearing (Agent) Limited, holds 614,001,319 shares, representing 45.01% of total shares[7] - Qingdao Beer Group Limited holds 443,467,655 shares, accounting for 32.51% of total shares, with no restricted shares[7] - The top ten shareholders collectively hold significant stakes, with the smallest among them, China Construction Bank, holding 5,456,400 shares, or 0.40%[8] - The total number of unrestricted circulating shares held by the top ten unrestricted shareholders is 614,001,319 shares[8] - Qingdao Beer Group's holdings include 405,132,055 shares of RMB ordinary shares and 38,335,600 shares of overseas listed foreign shares[9] - The company has not disclosed any known relationships or concerted actions among the top ten shareholders[9] Governance and Compliance - The company’s board of directors includes several key executives, ensuring governance and oversight[12] - As of September 30, 2024, the company has not audited its balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, which are available on the Shanghai Stock Exchange website[12] - The report indicates no participation in margin financing and securities lending by Qingdao Beer Group during the reporting period[9] - China Construction Bank and China Industrial Bank have exited the securities lending business, resulting in zero shares lent out at the end of the reporting period[10] Performance Metrics - The weighted average return on net assets decreased by 0.79 percentage points to 4.63%[3]

Revenue and Profit - Revenue for the third quarter was RMB 8.89 billion, a decrease of 5.28% year-over-year[2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was RMB 4.99 billion, an increase of 1.67% year-over-year[4] - Total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 28,959,288,497, a decrease of 6.52% compared to RMB 30,978,047,855 in the same period of 2023[14] - Net profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders was RMB 4,989,889,602, an increase of 1.67% compared to RMB 4,907,707,530 in the same period of 2023[15] - Basic earnings per share for the third quarter were RMB 0.989, a decrease of 9.35% year-over-year[2] - Basic earnings per share increased by 1.52% to RMB 3.667 in the first three quarters of 2024, compared to RMB 3.612 in the same period of 2023[16] - Total comprehensive income for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 5,126,263,206, an increase of 2.41% compared to RMB 5,005,455,506 in the same period of 2023[16] Sales Volume and Product Performance - Total product sales volume for the first three quarters was 6.785 million kiloliters, with the main brand Tsingtao Beer accounting for 3.835 million kiloliters[4] - Sales volume of mid-to-high-end products reached 2.779 million kiloliters, with revenue per kiloliter increasing by 0.49% year-over-year[4] Cash Flow and Financial Position - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters was RMB 6.23 billion, an increase of 22.55% year-over-year[2] - Total assets as of the end of the reporting period were RMB 50.37 billion, an increase of 2.26% compared to the end of the previous year[3] - Equity attributable to shareholders was RMB 29.8 billion, an increase of 8.55% compared to the end of the previous year[3] - Total assets increased to 503.71 billion yuan as of September 30, 2024, compared to 492.56 billion yuan at the end of 2023[11][12] - Monetary funds rose to 21.68 billion yuan, up from 19.28 billion yuan at the end of 2023[11] - Trading financial assets grew to 3.47 billion yuan, compared to 1.92 billion yuan at the end of 2023[11] - Accounts receivable increased to 156.03 million yuan from 100.39 million yuan at the end of 2023[11] - Inventory decreased to 2.03 billion yuan from 3.54 billion yuan at the end of 2023[11] - Total current assets slightly decreased to 291.20 billion yuan from 296.12 billion yuan at the end of 2023[12] - Total non-current assets increased to 212.51 billion yuan from 196.44 billion yuan at the end of 2023[12] - Fixed assets grew to 112.13 billion yuan, up from 111.46 billion yuan at the end of 2023[12] - Intangible assets increased to 26.57 billion yuan from 24.93 billion yuan at the end of 2023[12] - Contract liabilities decreased to 54.44 billion yuan from 76.91 billion yuan at the end of 2023[12] - Total liabilities decreased by 6.2% to RMB 19,698,994,899 as of the end of Q3 2024, compared to RMB 21,001,264,174 at the end of 2023[13] - Undistributed profits increased by 11.12% to RMB 22,595,561,322 as of the end of Q3 2024, compared to RMB 20,334,065,296 at the end of 2023[13] - Sales revenue from goods and services received in cash for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 30.97 billion, a decrease from RMB 32.15 billion in the same period of 2023[17] - Total cash inflows from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2024 were RMB 31.93 billion, down from RMB 32.87 billion in the same period of 2023[17] - Net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2024 increased to RMB 6.23 billion, up from RMB 5.08 billion in the same period of 2023[18] - Cash outflows for purchasing goods and accepting services in the first three quarters of 2024 decreased to RMB 13.67 billion from RMB 15.32 billion in the same period of 2023[17] - Cash payments for employee compensation in the first three quarters of 2024 were RMB 4.19 billion, slightly up from RMB 4.08 billion in the same period of 2023[18] - Net cash flow from investing activities for the first three quarters of 2024 was negative RMB 7.45 billion, compared to negative RMB 3.50 billion in the same period of 2023[18] - Cash payments for investments in the first three quarters of 2024 increased to RMB 13.09 billion from RMB 12.70 billion in the same period of 2023[18] - Net cash flow from financing activities for the first three quarters of 2024 was negative RMB 2.86 billion, similar to negative RMB 2.84 billion in the same period of 2023[18] - The net increase in cash and cash equivalents for the first three quarters of 2024 was negative RMB 4.07 billion, compared to negative RMB 1.25 billion in the same period of 2023[19] - The ending balance of cash and cash equivalents as of the end of the third quarter of 2024 was RMB 5.22 billion, down from RMB 11.59 billion at the end of the same period in 2023[19] Operating Costs and Expenses - Total operating costs for the first three quarters of 2024 were RMB 22,850,123,111, a decrease of 8.52% compared to RMB 24,978,263,085 in the same period of 2023[14] - R&D expenses increased by 60.6% to RMB 56,739,137 in the first three quarters of 2024, compared to RMB 35,319,783 in the same period of 2023[14] - Sales expenses decreased by 1.79% to RMB 3,420,705,236 in the first three quarters of 2024, compared to RMB 3,483,073,568 in the same period of 2023[14] - Financial income increased by 28.96% to RMB -433,974,719 in the first three quarters of 2024, compared to RMB -336,503,057 in the same period of 2023[14] Non-Recurring Items - Non-recurring gains and losses for the first three quarters amounted to RMB 303.7 million, primarily from government subsidies and financial asset gains[5] Return on Equity - Weighted average return on equity (ROE) for the third quarter was 4.63%, a decrease of 0.79 percentage points year-over-year[3]

Financial Position - As of June 30, 2024, total assets reached RMB 52.81 billion, an increase from RMB 49.26 billion as of December 31, 2023, representing a growth of approximately 5.2%[2] - Current assets totaled RMB 31.80 billion, up from RMB 29.61 billion, indicating a growth of about 7.4%[2] - Total liabilities amounted to RMB 23.59 billion, compared to RMB 21.00 billion, marking an increase of around 12.3%[4] - The equity attributable to shareholders of the parent company rose to RMB 28.39 billion from RMB 27.45 billion, showing an increase of about 3.4%[4] - As of June 30, 2024, total shareholders' equity amounted to RMB 16,348,128,723, a decrease from RMB 16,702,249,600 at the beginning of the year[14] Revenue and Profitability - Total operating revenue for the first half of 2024 was RMB 20,068,307,930, a decrease of 7.06% compared to RMB 21,591,789,633 in the same period of 2023[5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company increased to RMB 3,641,652,772, up 6.31% from RMB 3,425,652,286 in the first half of 2023[5] - The company reported a total profit of RMB 4,909,634,563, which is an increase of 6.63% from RMB 4,604,120,036 in the same period last year[5] - Total comprehensive income for the first half of 2024 was RMB 3,721,343,256, an increase from RMB 3,487,105,492 in the same period last year[6] Cash Flow - Total cash inflow from operating activities for the first half of 2024 was RMB 21,463,081,709, a slight decrease of 1.06% compared to RMB 21,693,753,265 in the same period of 2023[7] - Net cash flow from operating activities increased to RMB 5,713,872,510, up 24.2% from RMB 4,600,493,439 year-on-year[7] - Cash outflow from investing activities totaled RMB 12,020,320,545, an increase of 24.0% compared to RMB 9,673,707,119 in the first half of 2023[9] - The ending cash and cash equivalents balance as of June 30, 2024, was RMB 7,959,172,830, down from RMB 13,366,555,181 at the end of June 2023[9] Expenses - Research and development expenses rose to RMB 29,405,848, an increase of 32.83% compared to RMB 22,160,455 in the first half of 2023[5] - Financial expenses increased to RMB (290,996,043), compared to RMB (223,129,607) in the first half of 2023, indicating a rise in interest expenses[5] - The company’s sales expenses decreased to RMB 2,169,269,528, down 9.15% from RMB 2,387,993,047 in the first half of 2023[5] Inventory and Receivables - Inventory decreased to RMB 2.21 billion from RMB 3.54 billion, a reduction of approximately 37.5%[2] - Accounts receivable totaled RMB 317,493,819 as of June 30, 2024, representing a 14.3% increase from RMB 277,721,354 on December 31, 2023[115] - The company has recognized a bad debt provision of RMB 177,789,186, which is 55.8% of the total accounts receivable as of June 30, 2024[116] Investments and Assets - The total amount of non-current financial assets increased to RMB 2,492,382,750 as of June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 1,425,485,550 at the end of 2023[138] - Long-term equity investments in Hebei Jiahe Brewery amounted to RMB 220,762,244 as of June 30, 2024, with an investment loss recognized under the equity method of RMB 3,696,494[136] - The total value of right-of-use assets is RMB 266,109,014, an increase from RMB 129,355,155 as of December 31, 2023[161] Taxation - The corporate income tax rate applicable to most subsidiaries in mainland China is 25%, while the Hong Kong subsidiary is subject to a rate of 16.5%[106] - The company reported a total tax payable of RMB 1,030,681,162 as of June 30, 2024, significantly up from RMB 343,503,981 on December 31, 2023[181] - The total amount of unrecognized deductible losses due to uncertainty in future taxable income was RMB 318,951,000 as of June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 296,357,000 as of December 31, 2023, reflecting an increase of about 7.5%[171] Employee Benefits - The present value of the defined benefit plan obligations as of June 30, 2024, is RMB 663,939,329, showing a slight increase from RMB 663,935,553 at the beginning of the period[192] - The total service cost for the current period is RMB 3,830,499, while the net interest amount is RMB 8,969,000[192] - The defined benefit plan net liability as of June 30, 2024, is RMB 663,939,329, compared to RMB 667,048,477 as of June 30, 2023, indicating a decrease in net liability[194] Compliance and Governance - The financial statements were prepared in accordance with the accounting standards issued by the Ministry of Finance, ensuring compliance and accuracy[17] - The company has maintained its continuous operation capability without significant doubts regarding its ability to continue as a going concern[18] - The company’s accounting period aligns with the calendar year, running from January 1 to December 31[24]

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2024 年 09 月 16 日 [Table_Title] 结构升级韧性仍在，盈利能力稳中有升 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|------------------------|-----------------------|------------| | [Table_DataInfo] | 评级： 买入 股票代码： | | 600600 | | 上次评级： 买入 | | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 91.3/53.94 | | 目标价格： | 总市值(亿) | | 736.12 | | 最新收盘价： | 53.96 | 自由流通市值 (亿) | 382.59 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万 ) | 709.03 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司24H1营业收入200.68亿元，同比-7.1%，归母净利润36.42亿元，同比+6.3%，扣非归母净利润34.27 亿元，同比+6.15%。据此推算，公司 24Q2 营业收入 99.2 亿元，同比-8.89%，归母净利润 20 ...

2024 年 09 月 03 日 评级 增持 | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-------------| | 当前价格（元） | 57.05 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | 57.05-94.46 | | 总市值（百万） | 66263.40 | | 流通市值（百万） | 40450.22 | | 总股本（万股） | 136419.70 | | 流通股（万股） | 136410.10 | 涨跌幅比较 青岛啤酒 非白酒 -37% -27% -17% -7% 3% 13% 2023-09 2023-12 2024-03 2024-06 2024-09 % 1M 3M 12M 黄静 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530524020001 huangjing48@hnchasing.com 相关报告 青岛啤酒 -15.10 -24.57 -36.74 非白酒 -8.59 -16.98 -33.78 1 青岛啤酒（600600.SH）2023 年年报点评：延 续中高端化趋势 2024-04-02 证券研究报告 公司点评 青岛啤酒(600600.SH) 食品饮料｜ 非白酒 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 20.068 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.06%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 6.31% to 3.642 billion yuan [2][3] - The sales volume slightly declined, but the upgrade in product structure led to an increase in average selling price [3] - The company's profitability continues to improve, with gross margin and net margin both increasing in the first half of 2024 [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, total revenue was 20.068 billion yuan, down 7.06% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.642 billion yuan, up 6.31% [2] - In Q2 2024, total revenue was 9.918 billion yuan, down 8.89% year-on-year, with net profit of 2.044 billion yuan, up 3.55% [2] Sales Volume and Product Structure - In H1 2024, beer sales volume was 4.63 million kiloliters, down 7.8% year-on-year, with the main brand Qingdao Beer sales at 2.61 million kiloliters, down 7.2% [3] - The proportion of mid-to-high-end products increased to 41.0%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to a 1.0% increase in average selling price to 4.28 yuan per liter [3] Profitability - In H1 2024, the net profit margin was 18.15%, and the gross margin was 41.60%, both up year-on-year by 2.28 and 2.39 percentage points respectively [4] - In Q2 2024, the net profit margin was 20.61%, and the gross margin was 42.80%, both showing continued improvement [4] Future Projections - The company expects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 4.594 billion, 4.956 billion, and 5.250 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 7.64%, 7.88%, and 5.95% [4]

公司报告 | 半年报点评 需求承压拖累吨价，成本红利释放保障盈利 公 司 公 告 ： 2024H1 营业收入 / 归 母 净 利 / 扣 非 归 母 净 利 分 别 为 200.68/36.42/34.27 亿元（同比-7.06%/+6.31%/+6.15%）。2024Q2 营业收入/ 归母净利 / 扣 非 归 母 净 利 分 别 为 99.18/20.44/19.14 亿元（同比 -8.89%/+3.55%/+1.87%）。 青岛啤酒（600600） 证券研究报告 2024 年 09 月 03 日 投资评级 行业 食品饮料/非白酒 6 个月评级 买入（维持评级） 当前价格 57.05 元 目标价格 元 高基数+餐饮疲软+主动控库存，Q2 销量承压。 分产品看，H1 销量 463 万千升，同比-7.8%；青岛品牌同比-7.2%，中高档 同比-4%（占比同比+1.6pct），类经典等中低档同比-15%，其他品牌销量同 比-8.6%。 Q2 总销量同比-8.0%，青岛品牌同比-8.7%、中高档同比-5.5%（占 比同比+1pct）、类经典同比-16.2%、其他品牌同比-7.3%。 需求+货折影响，Q2 吨收入负增 ...