联合包裹(UPS.N)盘前下跌1.5%。 ...

智通财经7月29日电，联合包裹（UPS）第二季度调整后每股收益1.55美元，市场预期为1.56美元。 ...

联合包裹(UPS.N)2025年Q2营收212亿美元，去年同期218亿美元，市场预期208.6亿美元。 ...

Core Insights - United Parcel Service (UPS) is expected to release its earnings on July 29, 2025, with historical data indicating a pattern of negative one-day returns following earnings announcements, where the stock has decreased in 60% of cases with a median drop of -6.5% [2][3] Earnings Expectations - Analysts forecast earnings of $1.57 per share on sales of $20.85 billion for the upcoming quarter, representing a decline from $1.79 per share and $21.82 billion in revenue from the same quarter last year, indicating potential challenges for the company [3] Financial Performance - UPS has a market capitalization of $87 billion and generated $91 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, achieving operational profitability with $8.5 billion in operating profits and a net income of $5.9 billion [4] Historical Earnings Reaction - Over the past five years, UPS recorded 20 earnings data points, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns occurring approximately 40% of the time, which drops to 25% when analyzing the last 3 years [7] Post-Earnings Strategy - Traders may consider pre-earnings positioning based on historical probabilities and assess the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns after earnings to guide their strategies [6][8]

Company Overview - United Parcel Service (UPS) was founded in 1907 in Seattle, Washington, initially as the American Messenger Company, and was renamed United Parcel Service in 1919 to reflect its expanded focus on package delivery [1] Investment Philosophy - The company emphasizes the importance of identifying undervalued and promising stocks, focusing on balancing risk and reward, and believes that the best investment ideas are often the simplest [1]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that United Parcel Service (UPS) will report quarterly earnings of $1.56 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 12.9%, with revenues expected to reach $20.85 billion, down 4.4% from the same quarter last year [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 1.5%, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts of their initial forecasts [2]. - Revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior regarding the stock, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts forecast 'Revenue- Supply Chain Solutions' to be $2.78 billion, indicating a year-over-year decline of 16.4% [5]. - The 'Revenue- International Package' is expected to be $4.25 billion, reflecting a decrease of 2.9% year-over-year [5]. - The consensus estimate for 'Revenue- U.S. Domestic Package' stands at $13.83 billion, showing a decline of 2.1% from the prior-year quarter [5]. Key Metrics - 'Revenue- International Package- Cargo and other' is projected to be $164.91 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 1.2% [6]. - The 'Average revenue per piece - International Package - Total' is expected to be $20.58, down from $21.42 in the same quarter last year [6]. - 'Average daily package volume - International Package - Export' is estimated at 1.60 million, slightly up from 1.58 million a year ago [7]. - 'Average daily package volume - International Package - Domestic' is projected to remain at 1.49 million, consistent with the previous year's figure [7]. - 'Average revenue per piece - U.S. Domestic Package - Ground' is expected to reach $11.47, compared to $10.92 a year ago [8]. - The 'Average revenue per piece - U.S. Domestic Package - Total' is projected at $13.15, up from $12.35 in the same quarter last year [8]. - 'Average revenue per piece - International Package - Domestic' is expected to be $8.02, slightly down from $8.10 a year ago [9]. - The 'Average revenue per piece - International Package - Export' is projected at $32.34, down from $33.90 in the same quarter last year [9]. - The average prediction for 'Average daily package volume - International Package - Total' is 3.09 million, compared to 3.07 million in the same quarter last year [10]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, UPS shares have returned +4.2%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has changed by +5.7% [11]. - UPS currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the overall market in the near future [11].

Group 1: Stock Performance - United Parcel Service (UPS) closed at $101.14, with a gain of +2.26% from the previous trading session, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.06% [1] - The stock has decreased by 1.49% over the past month, underperforming the Transportation sector's gain of 4.05% and the S&P 500's gain of 5.88% [1] Group 2: Upcoming Earnings - UPS is set to announce its earnings on July 29, 2025, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.56 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 12.85% [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projected at $20.85 billion, down 4.43% from the previous year [2] Group 3: Full Year Estimates - For the full year, analysts expect earnings of $7.05 per share and revenue of $87.34 billion, indicating changes of -8.68% and -4.09% respectively from last year [3] Group 4: Analyst Estimates and Confidence - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for UPS are important as they reflect changing near-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating analysts' confidence in performance [4] - Empirical research shows a direct correlation between estimate revisions and stock price performance [5] Group 5: Zacks Rank and Valuation - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), currently ranks UPS at 4 (Sell), with a recent 0.4% decrease in the EPS estimate [6] - UPS has a Forward P/E ratio of 14.02, aligning with its industry's Forward P/E of 14.02 [7] Group 6: PEG Ratio - UPS has a PEG ratio of 1.9, compared to the Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry's average PEG ratio of 1.85 [8] Group 7: Industry Ranking - The Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 199, placing it in the bottom 20% of over 250 industries [9]

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) is facing challenges but presents a contrarian investment opportunity at this time [1] Company Summary - UPS is a well-known package delivery company [1] - The company has experienced recent difficulties that may deter some investors [1] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on strategic buying opportunities, particularly in dividend and value stocks [1] - This approach has led to a high rating on Tipranks.com and a significant following on Seeking Alpha [1]

Core Insights - United Parcel Service (UPS) is expected to report Q2 2025 earnings of $1.56 per share, reflecting a 12.9% decrease year-over-year [1] - Revenue estimates for the same quarter are projected at $20.85 billion, indicating a 4.4% decline from the previous year [3] Financial Performance - UPS has a history of earnings surprises, with an average surprise of 2.42% across recent quarters [4] - The company's Earnings ESP is currently -1.00%, suggesting a lower likelihood of beating earnings estimates this quarter [9] Operational Challenges - Shipping volumes are anticipated to be negatively impacted by geopolitical uncertainties and high inflation [4] - Labor costs are expected to be high, prompting UPS to implement cost-cutting measures, including offering buyouts to delivery drivers for the first time [5] - UPS aims to reduce its workforce by 20,000, approximately 4% of its global workforce, and close 73 facilities to streamline operations [6] Customer Dynamics - UPS is reducing business with its largest customer, Amazon, which is expected to lower volume by over 50% by June 2026 [7] - The decision to cut ties with Amazon is partly due to the realization that it was not the most profitable customer for UPS [7] Market Conditions - Low fuel costs are projected to benefit UPS, with expenses expected to decrease by 10.3% from Q2 2024 [8] - However, weak demand and tariff risks continue to pose significant challenges to UPS's outlook [6] Stock Performance - UPS shares have declined by 26% over the past six months, underperforming the Zacks Transportation—Air Freight and Cargo industry's decline of 21.3% [11] - In terms of valuation, UPS shares are trading in line with the industry average based on the forward 12-month Price/Sales (P/S) ratio [13] Long-term Outlook - Despite current challenges, UPS has the brand and network to generate steady cash flows in the long run, making it a compelling long-term investment [19] - However, near-term headwinds and uncertainties surrounding trade policy and economic slowdown warrant caution for potential investors [19]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for United Parcel Service (UPS) due to lower revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - UPS is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.56 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 12.9% [3]. - Revenue projections stand at $20.85 billion, which is a decline of 4.4% from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 1.47% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for UPS is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -1.00% [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likely deviation of actual earnings from consensus estimates, with positive readings being more predictive of earnings beats [9][10]. - UPS currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4, complicating predictions of an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, UPS exceeded expectations with earnings of $1.49 per share against an estimate of $1.44, resulting in a surprise of +3.47% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, UPS has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [14]. Conclusion - UPS does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat based on current estimates and rankings, but other factors should also be considered when evaluating the stock ahead of the earnings release [17].