Core Insights - United Parcel Service (UPS) and Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) have both increased their dividends this year, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns despite economic uncertainties [1][3]. Dividend Analysis - UPS raised its quarterly cash dividend to $1.64 per share ($6.56 annualized) from $1.63 ($6.52 annualized) in February, while EXPD increased its quarterly semi-annual cash dividend by 5.5% from 73 cents to 77 cents in May, with a payout ratio of 25% and a five-year dividend growth rate of 8.4% [3][4]. - Concerns about the sustainability of UPS' dividends arise due to its elevated payout ratio, which indicates potential challenges in maintaining long-term dividend payments [4][6]. Financial Performance - UPS' free cash flow has declined from a peak of $9 billion in 2022, with projections indicating free cash flow of $6.3 billion at the end of 2024, barely covering its dividend payments of $5.4 billion [5][6]. - In contrast, EXPD's lower dividend payout ratio suggests a more sustainable dividend policy, alleviating concerns about its ability to maintain dividend payouts [6]. Price Performance Comparison - EXPD has shown resilience in the stock market, achieving an 8.3% year-to-date gain, while UPS has experienced a significant decline in stock price [8][10]. - UPS' poor performance is attributed to revenue weakness due to geopolitical uncertainties and high inflation affecting consumer sentiment [12]. Operational Metrics - EXPD's recent strength is linked to a 7% year-over-year increase in airfreight tonnage and ocean container volume, alongside effective cost-cutting measures [13]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EXPD's 2025 sales indicates a slight increase of 0.3%, while UPS' 2025 sales estimate suggests a decrease of 3.9% [14][15]. Valuation Insights - EXPD is trading at a forward sales multiple of 1.54X, while UPS has a forward sales multiple of 0.84X, indicating that EXPD is perceived as more expensive [17]. - Despite both companies focusing on dividends, EXPD's lower payout ratio and better price performance suggest it may be a more attractive investment compared to UPS [18][19].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **transportation industry**, specifically the impact of **US tariffs** on freight flows from **China to the USA** [1][2][5]. Core Observations - **Laden vessels** from China to the USA decreased by **8% sequentially** and **21% year-over-year (YoY)**, indicating a significant decline in shipping activity [1][5]. - The **Port of Los Angeles** is expected to see a **13% increase** in sequential imports, but a potential **12% decrease** is anticipated in the following weeks, reflecting volatility in shipping patterns [5][36]. - **Rail intermodal volumes** on the West Coast increased by **2% YoY**, suggesting a recovery in logistics as inventory levels normalize [5]. - **Container rates** have dropped by **8% sequentially** and are under pressure, down **70% YoY**, indicating a challenging pricing environment for shipping companies [5][32]. Tariff Impact and Future Projections - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs may lead shippers to delay orders, potentially resulting in a lackluster peak season for freight volumes and revenues [6]. - If consumer demand remains resilient, a **re-stock event** could occur in **2026**, benefiting freight flows and margins after a prolonged period of destocking [6]. - Goldman Sachs economists have reduced the recession forecast to **30%** and increased the GDP outlook for Q4 to **1.3%**, suggesting a more favorable economic environment for transportation [8]. Stock Recommendations - **Truckers** have been upgraded due to a reduced likelihood of recession and resilient consumer demand [8]. - **Freight forwarders** like **EXPD** and **CHRW** are expected to benefit from volatility and potential surges in demand due to tariff-related delays [8]. - **Parcel services** (UPS and FedEx) are also positioned to gain from increased demand for air freight during peak seasons [8]. - **Intermodal services** on the West Coast (UNP and JBHT) may benefit from increased imports, although challenges could arise in the second half of 2025 if demand does not recover [8]. Additional Insights - The **Logistics Managers Index** indicates that upstream inventories are expanding, while downstream retail inventories are contracting, reflecting differing dynamics in supply chain management [73]. - The **Supply Chain Congestion Tracker** shows a slight increase in congestion, indicating that fluidity levels are returning to pre-COVID baselines [52]. - **Air cargo rates** from Shanghai to LA increased by **18% month-over-month** in July, highlighting ongoing volatility in shipping costs [60]. Conclusion - The transportation industry is currently facing significant challenges due to tariff impacts and fluctuating demand. However, there are potential opportunities for recovery and growth in the coming years, particularly if consumer spending remains strong and inventory levels stabilize.

Core Viewpoint - Drexel Morgan & Co. has significantly increased its investment in United Parcel Service (UPS) by purchasing 100,000 shares, reflecting a bullish outlook on the company's future performance and dividend sustainability [2][3][8]. Investment Activity - The investment firm acquired 100,000 shares of UPS, with an estimated transaction value of approximately $9.86 million based on the average share price in Q2 2025 [2][3]. - Following this transaction, Drexel Morgan's total stake in UPS increased to 309,765 shares, valued at $27.08 million as of August 12, 2025 [2][3]. - UPS now constitutes 4.8% of Drexel Morgan's 13F reportable assets, which total $563.16 million as of the same date [3][4]. Company Performance - As of August 12, 2025, UPS shares were priced at $87.43, reflecting a decline of 29.4% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500 by 47.2 percentage points [4]. - UPS has a market capitalization of $73.94 billion and reported revenue of $90.17 billion with a net income of $5.73 billion for the trailing twelve months (TTM) [5]. - The company offers a dividend yield of 7.48% as of August 12, 2025, with a forward P/E ratio of 11.91 [4][5]. Business Overview - UPS operates as a global leader in integrated freight and logistics, providing package delivery, transportation, logistics, and supply chain solutions across approximately 200 countries and territories [5][7]. - The company serves a diverse customer base, including individuals, small businesses, and large enterprises, with a focus on time-definite package delivery services and value-added logistics solutions [6][7]. Strategic Insights - Drexel Morgan's acquisition of UPS shares indicates a preference for large-capitalization, dividend-paying stocks, which aligns with its investment strategy [8]. - UPS's management has committed to significant capital allocation, including $1 billion for stock buybacks and $5.5 billion for dividends in 2025, amidst a challenging trading environment [9][10].

Group 1: Company Overview - UPS and Whirlpool are currently experiencing significant declines in their stock prices, with both down over 60% from their all-time highs [2] - Both companies have a history of paying and increasing dividends, with their yields now exceeding 7% due to share price slumps [4] Group 2: Dividend Analysis - UPS is committed to maintaining a stable and growing dividend, with expected payouts of at least $5.5 billion this year, likely exceeding its free cash flow [5] - Whirlpool has cut its annual dividend from $7 to $3.50 per share, resulting in a more sustainable yield of 4% compared to UPS's 7.5% [6] Group 3: Impact of Tariffs - UPS faces risks from tariffs that may lead to decreased shipping volumes and negatively impact consumer spending, especially during the holiday season [8] - Conversely, Whirlpool may benefit from tariffs on foreign competitors, as it manufactures over 80% of its products in the U.S., giving it a pricing advantage [9] Group 4: Investment Outlook - Despite UPS's higher yield, its future prospects appear dim due to external economic factors, while Whirlpool offers a decent yield and compelling valuation even after its dividend cut [10]

Group 1 - UPS has resolved several grievances and a local contract dispute, avoiding a major labor crisis and halting strikes in Kentucky and six other states [1][10] - The relationship between Teamsters and UPS remains strained, with allegations of UPS violating the National Master Agreement [2][4] - Teamsters are dissatisfied with UPS for not hiring the promised number of full-time employees and for offering buyout packages to reduce labor costs [3][4] Group 2 - UPS is lagging in delivering air-conditioned vehicles and creating new full-time jobs as per contractual obligations [4][10] - The company is streamlining its delivery network in response to lower parcel volumes and has decided to cut its business with Amazon by 50% by 2026 [5][10] - UPS shares have declined over 31% in the past year, underperforming its industry, and currently trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.4X, which is considered expensive [8][9] Group 3 - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UPS' earnings for 2025 and 2026 has been revised downward over the past 30 days [12] - Current earnings estimates for UPS are $6.58 for 2025 and $7.44 for 2026, down from previous estimates of $7.05 and $7.96 respectively [12] - UPS currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) [12]

同日，当地交通事务主管部门工作人员表示，事故已被立案调查。此外，有关部门也公开表示，已将货 机上的飞行资料记录器与驾驶舱通话记录器带回，目前飞机仍然留在当地，研判发动机受损严重。 据悉，此次事故被指可能是受到台风天气影响，侧风过大。南都记者注意到，8月13日，桃园机场公司 官网发布消息称，据公司统计，13日排定航班起降共计663班次，受台风"杨柳"影响取消64班次，包含 客运航班49班次及货运航班13班次。因天气原因转降或返航航班包括南方航空CZ3087航班回航深圳、 国泰航空CX466航班回航香港等。 （文章来源：南方都市报） 8月13日，台北桃园机场发生一起美国联合包裹运送服务公司（UPS）货机UPS061航班发动机触地事 件。14日，桃园机场公司公共事务处工作人员回应南都N视频记者称，事发当日23时38分已重新开放机 场北跑道。当地交通事务主管部门工作人员则表示，事故已被立案调查。据悉，事故被指受到台风天气 影响。桃园机场公司官网13日消息称，受台风影响已取消64次航班。 现场视频显示，8月13日晚20时左右，一架UPS货机降落桃园机场北跑道时，右侧第4号发动机疑似触碰 跑道，瞬间窜出火光。据称，事件未 ...

Shipping Data - Global container freight index CCFI reported at 1200.73 points, down 2.56% month-on-month[5] - Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) at 1489.68 points, down 3.94% month-on-month[5] - Ningbo Container Freight Index (NCFI) at 1053.86 points, down 3.11% month-on-month[5] Air Freight Data - Global air cargo index BAI reported at 2071 points, up 2.17% month-on-month[5] - BAI30 at 3460 points, up 2.06% month-on-month[5] - BAI80 at 4455 points, up 0.84% month-on-month[5] Market Trends - SCFI has declined for nine consecutive weeks, with significant drops in the US West and East routes, at 9.8% and 10.7% respectively[19] - FedEx increased import handling fees from $1.5 to $2.5 per package, a 67% increase, effective August 18[13] - UPS will implement new dimensional weight pricing rules, tightening thresholds for additional fees[13] Cross-Border E-commerce Developments - Temu shifts focus to the European market as US tax policies impact growth, with GMV in Europe surpassing that in the US[15] - Trump plans to impose a 250% tariff on semiconductor and pharmaceutical products, potentially impacting trade dynamics[15]

Core Viewpoint - UPS's stock price experienced significant fluctuations during and after the pandemic, raising questions about its future performance and potential recovery [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - UPS's stock rose during the pandemic due to increased demand for e-commerce delivery services but has since fallen back to pre-pandemic levels [1][4]. - The stock's journey reflects a full cycle from bull to bear, with a notable price advance in 2020 and 2021 followed by a crash in 2022 [2][4]. Group 2: Business Adjustments - In response to changing market conditions post-pandemic, UPS has initiated a business overhaul, including downsizing and adopting more technology [5][6]. - The company has also faced increased costs due to a new union contract while strategically reducing its low-margin business with Amazon, its largest customer [5][7]. Group 3: Financial Outlook - The near-term outlook for UPS is expected to be challenging due to the costs associated with restructuring, although these changes may yield long-term benefits [6][8]. - The focus on more profitable business segments may lead to improved margins but could also result in reduced overall revenue [7][8]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - UPS presents a high-yield turnaround opportunity with a 7.5% dividend yield, but the high payout ratio of over 90% raises concerns for dividend investors [9]. - The company is likely to attract aggressive investors who are willing to adopt a long-term perspective rather than those seeking short-term gains [9].

数据显示，2025年美国物流行业的破产申请数量已飙升至近十五年的峰值，仅在5月份就录得733起之多。随之而来的是大规模的企业"优化"——工厂关闭、 岗位消失，数以千计的卡车司机、仓库员工、调度人员以及技术行政人员在短时间内失去了工作。 特朗普关税政策的持续施压与动荡不安的货运市场，将众多物流服务商推向了崩溃边缘，裁员已成为行业应对关税冲击的普遍手段。 01 物流巨头裁员关厂成常态 这场风暴中，即使是全球物流巨头也难以独善其身 国际物流巨头DHL也公开确认了其调整策略，计划在今年削减8000个工作岗位，同时关闭位于加州安大略市的重要配送中心以及佐治亚州联合城的一处运 营设施。 这股席卷行业的裁员浪潮并非孤立事件，而是整个美国物流业在巨大压力下艰难求生的缩影。 巨头们尚且如此，众多中小型物流企业的处境可想而知。 02 关税利刃与市场乱流 为什么物流公司会举步维艰？ 第一，关税引发的经济压力。 悬而未决的关税大大减少了运输量，尤其沉重地打击了中美间的货物流转。外媒称，大量从中国采购的中小型企业的成本显着上升，美国零售联合会预计， 今年剩余时间内，美国整体进口量预计将下滑20%，中国商品将大幅下降 80%。 图源：u ...

The shipping giant still faces difficult long-term challenges. UPS (UPS 0.18%), one of the world's largest shipping couriers, might seem like a reliable long-term investment. But over the past five years, its stock declined 40%. Even after including its reinvested dividends, it delivered a negative total return of 28%. In 2024, its daily package volume and revenue increased again as the macro environment stabilized and it negotiated a new labor contract with the Teamsters. But those higher labor and pension ...