I published my initiation coverage for Vipshop (NYSE: VIPS ) in December 2023. The stock has been down almost 20% since then, vastly underperforming the market. The drop in the stock price is due to VIPS’ deteriorating business fundamentals from Q1 ofI am the co-founder and portfolio manager for a multi-family office with a focus on U.S and Asia markets. I have a bachelor's and master's degree in accounting and finance from one of the top programs in the U.S. I am a CFA Charterholder. Prior to starting on m ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年11月22日 唯品会（VIPS.N） 优于大市 2024Q3 财报点评：受消费疲软和竞争加剧影响，收入利润持 续承压 收入端：本季度公司营业收入 207 亿元，yoy -9.2%，主要受需求疲软、 竞争加剧影响，其中产品收入 189 亿元，yoy-10.2%，分品类看，穿戴品类 负增长，标品受竞争影响表现更疲软；其他收入 18 亿，yoy+4%，其他收入 的快速增长主要由杉杉奥莱店带动。展望 24Q4，受需求疲软、竞争加剧影 响，管理层指引收入增速为-10%到-5%区间，并预计 2025年可能延续 24Q4 的消费趋势。 运营数据：运营数据看，公司本季度 GMV 同比零增长至 401 亿，GMV 和 收入增速差环比保持稳定。分拆看，Q3 活跃买家数 3960 万人，yoy -7%， 据我们测算，本季度用户购买次数同比小幅下降，单均价同比基本持平。 值得一提的是，公司会员 SuperVIP 会员 yoy+11%，本季度 SuperVIP 成 交金额占公司线上成交金额的 49%。公司表示双 11 大促投入有纪律，效 果符合预期。 利润端：本季度公司利润表现稳健，Non-GAAP 净利润 ...

财务模型更新 | 互联网行业 浦银国际研究 浦银国际 财务模型更新 唯品会 （VIPS.US） 唯品会（VIPS.US）：业绩符合预期， 回购力度加大 业绩符合预期，回购力度加大：公司 3Q24 收入人民币 207 亿元，同 比下降 9.2%，符合我们预期及公司先前指引，主要受行业需求疲软 影响。毛利率持续改善至 24.0%，调整后净利率为 6.3%。3Q24 公司 完成了 2.75 亿美元回购，同时批准了新的 10 亿美元回购计划。公司 表示计划将 2025 年调整后净利润的 75%以上用于回购或派息，致力 于提升长期股东回报。 SVIP 稳步增长，四季度指引保持谨慎：3Q24 公司产品收入同比下降 10%，GMV 为 401 亿元，同比下降约 6%，其中服装品类 GMV 略有下 降，标品 GMV 降幅加大，主要由于行业价格竞争加剧；订单量同比 下降 9%至 1.64 亿，活跃买家数同比下降 6%至 3960 万。活跃 SVIP 会 员数持续保持双位数增长，同比增长 11%，贡献线上消费的 49%。由 于今年双十一提前且周期拉长，公司10月取得不错表现，全周期GMV 同比增长超过 20%。但考虑到去年寒潮期 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics - Total net revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB20.7 billion, a decrease from RMB22.8 billion in the prior year period [20] - Gross profit was RMB5.0 billion, compared to RMB5.4 billion in the prior year period, with gross margin increasing to 24.0% from 23.6% [20] - Non-GAAP net income attributable to Vipshop's shareholders was RMB1.3 billion, down from RMB1.8 billion in the prior year period, with a non-GAAP net margin of 6.3% compared to 8.1% [23] - Cash and cash equivalents, including restricted cash, stood at RMB22.5 billion as of September 30, 2024, with short-term investments of RMB1.6 billion [24] Business Line Performance - Active SVIP customers grew by 11% year-over-year, contributing to 49% of online spending [7] - Sales from the "Made for VIP" customized product line showed solid growth, with more than half of sales coming from SVIP and other high-value customers [11] - Categories like sports and outdoor goods, and homeware showed strength despite broader market weakness [10] Market Performance - The company observed softer results in discretionary categories due to consumer headwinds, but SVIP membership growth remained strong [7] - The company is focusing on providing value through everyday low prices and targeted incentives for family shoppers [12] Strategic Direction and Industry Competition - The company is emphasizing merchandising capabilities to drive long-term growth, with a focus on responding to changing customer behaviors [9] - Investments in technology, including AI, are being made to improve search and recommendation relevancy, aiming to enhance customer engagement and efficiency [13] - The company is planning to maintain a disciplined approach to cost and expense management, with a focus on growing profit dollars [29] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumer sentiment may have bottomed out following recent government stimulus, but the environment remains rational with customers showing signs of being stretched [29] - The company expects Q4 2024 total net revenues to be between RMB31.2 billion and RMB32.9 billion, representing a year-over-year decrease of approximately 10% to 5% [24] Other Important Information - The company repurchased nearly $500 million in shares in the first nine months of 2024, with $55.3 million remaining in the existing $1 billion share repurchase program [19] - A new two-year buyback program of up to $1 billion is in place, with plans to meet no less than 75% of full-year non-GAAP net income through share repurchases and dividend distributions in 2025 [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Consumer sentiment and GMV trends - Management noted that October was strong due to early Double 11 promotions, but overall consumer sentiment remains rational with customers focusing on value and essentials [29] - The company expects the Q4 trend to continue into 2025, with efforts to return to GMV growth [29] Question: Double 11 performance and Q4 guidance - Double 11 GMV showed over 20% growth on a full-cycle basis, but the Q4 guidance is conservative due to weather factors and high base effects from the previous year [35] Question: Gross margin outlook and tax expenses - Q3 gross margin was 24%, driven by higher apparel contribution and other revenues, with Q4 expected to be marginally lower but within the 23% range [39][40] - Tax expenses increased due to the transfer of cash onshore to offshore for shareholder returns, with an effective tax rate expected to remain around 17% to 18% [41] Question: Product category performance and SVIP user behavior - Apparel saw a small decline in GMV, while standardized items had a larger decline, but the company is adjusting strategies to narrow losses [45] - SVIP customers grew by 11% year-over-year, with a small decline in ARPU primarily due to reduced frequency, but average ticket size remained stable [45] Question: SVIP ARPU decline and government trading subsidies - SVIP ARPU decline was attributed to reduced frequency, with efforts to increase engagement through enhanced membership privileges and events [49] - The company expects minimal benefit from government trading subsidies, as they primarily focus on apparel, which is not a key category for the subsidies [49]

Conference Call to Be Held at 7:30 A.M. U.S. Eastern Time on November 19, 2024GUANGZHOU, China, Nov. 19, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Vipshop Holdings Limited (NYSE: VIPS), a leading online discount retailer for brands in China ("Vipshop" or the "Company"), today announced its unaudited financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2024.Third Quarter 2024 Highlights Total net revenues for the third quarter of 2024 were RMB20.7 billion (US$2.9 billion), compared with RMB22.8 billion in the prior year period. ...

GUANGZHOU, China, Nov. 11, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Vipshop Holdings Limited (NYSE: VIPS), a leading online discount retailer for brands in China ("Vipshop" or the "Company"), today announced that it plans to release its third quarter 2024 financial results on Tuesday, November 19, 2024, before the US market open.The Company will hold a conference call on Tuesday, November 19, 2024 at 7:30 am US Eastern Time, 8:30 pm Beijing Time to discuss the financial results.All participants wishing to join the conference c ...

GUANGZHOU, China, Nov. 7, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Vipshop Holdings Limited (NYSE: VIPS), a leading online discount retailer for brands in China ("Vipshop" or the "Company"), today announced that it will hold an annual general meeting of shareholders at Vipshop Headquarters, 128 Dingxin Road, Haizhu District, Guangzhou 510220, People's Republic of China on December 6, 2024 at 11:00 a.m., Beijing time. No proposal will be submitted for shareholder approval at the annual general meeting. Instead, the annual gener ...

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 财务模型更新 唯品会 （VIPS.US） 财务模型更新 | 互联网行业 唯品会（VIPS.US）：预计 3Q24 收入 符合指引，短期或仍将承压 受消费情绪偏弱影响，我们预计公司三季度收入下降 9.5%，符合公 司先前指引；调整目标价至 15.9 美元，维持"持有"评级。 由于消费情绪偏弱，我们预计公司用户数和人均订单量将有一定下降， 但预计核心 SVIP 用户保持良好增长。我们预计公司三季度收入同比 下降9.5%至人民币206亿元，符合公司先前指引；预计毛利率23.0%， 同比下降0.6pp；考虑到预扣税影响，预计调整后净利润为12.6亿元， 调整后净利率为 6.1%，同比下降 2.0pp。 由于宏观和竞争环境仍不明朗，我们预计公司四季度收入或仍将承压。 我们预计 2024E 收入为 1,070 亿元，调整后净利润为 86.2 亿元，调 整后净利率为 8.0%。调整目标价至 15.9 美元，对应 2024E/2025E 7.4/7.0x P/E，维持"持有"评级。 投资风险：行业竞争加剧；用户增长不及预期；利润率不及预期。 图表 1：盈利预测变动 | --- | --- | --- ...

Vipshop Holdings Limited (NYSE: VIPS ) reports a large number of users, relationships with many brands, and an established logistic network. In my opinion, further development of the company's AI-searched content , ERP systems, and automatization could bring future freeLondon Stock Market Research is a service offered by an ex-investment banker from the city of London. After around 11 years in the industry, I decided to drop out, and made dollars out of what I learned in business. I appreciate value investm ...

We Are Vipshop Holdings Limited (NYSE:VIPS) is a well-known online Chinese marketplace specializing in selling discounted goods primarily apparel. I have followed the company since 2021, when I published an article with a buy recommendation. In recent quarters, the company has attracted the attention of value investors due to its low valuation and its apparent ability to deliver profitable growth. The initial investment thesis was based on the idea of a slow recovery in the post-Covid era, which was exp ...