Core Viewpoint - Viking Therapeutics has experienced a significant decline in stock price in 2025, down 35% year to date, despite a strong performance in 2024 due to promising clinical progress [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Performance - The company's leading candidate, VK2735, an investigational GLP-1 weight loss therapy, showed excellent phase 2 results and is expected to advance to phase 3 studies soon [5] - Viking's market cap is approximately $3 billion, and it is considered one of the more promising bets in the weight loss therapy sector, despite competition from larger companies like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk [8][6] - The company is also developing VK2809 for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), which has also passed phase 2 studies, and VK0214 for X-linked adrenoleukodystrophy, which has completed phase 1 studies [9][10] Group 2: Financial Position - Viking Therapeutics ended the first quarter with $852 million in cash and equivalents, down from $903 million at the end of 2024, indicating a solid financial position to support ongoing studies [11] - The company is expected to access additional funding easily due to its clinical progress, which should mitigate any immediate funding concerns [11] Group 3: Market Context - The weight loss market is experiencing rapid growth, with sales of existing therapies increasing significantly, and analysts predict continued growth in this sector at least until the early 2030s [7] - Despite the influx of investigational weight loss therapies, most have shown modest results, making Viking's promising data stand out in the competitive landscape [8]

Core Viewpoint - The obesity drug market is highly lucrative, with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk generating billions in sales, prompting other companies like Pfizer to explore acquisition opportunities in this space [1][2]. Group 1: Pfizer's Position and Strategy - Pfizer recently discontinued its experimental obesity drug danuglipron due to safety concerns, putting it at a disadvantage in the obesity market [2]. - The company has nearly $20.5 billion in cash and short-term investments, with a revenue of $63.6 billion and a profit exceeding $8 billion in 2024, despite a significant debt load of around $64 billion [7][8]. Group 2: Potential Acquisition Targets - Altimmune is a promising target for Pfizer, with its experimental GLP-1/glucagon dual receptor agonist pemvidutide having completed successful phase 2 testing for obesity and plans for further studies in liver disorders and alcohol-related diseases [3][4]. - Viking Therapeutics is another potential acquisition candidate, expecting to begin phase 3 testing of its GLP-1/GIP receptor dual agonist VK2735 for obesity this year, alongside ongoing phase 2 studies for an oral formulation [5][6]. Group 3: Financial Feasibility of Acquisitions - Altimmune's market cap is below $400 million, making it a feasible acquisition for Pfizer without incurring additional debt [8]. - Viking Therapeutics has a market cap of nearly $3 billion, but Pfizer could still finance this acquisition comfortably with its cash reserves [9]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Pfizer may delay acquisition decisions until it assesses the clinical development of its other experimental obesity drug, PF-07976016, but must act quickly to avoid losing potential targets to competitors [10][11].

Industry Overview - The weight loss treatment market is projected to grow significantly, with analysts forecasting a compound annual growth rate in the double digits, reaching between $100 billion to $130 billion by the early 2030s [1] Key Players - Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk currently dominate the weight loss treatment market with their products: Lilly's tirzepatide (Mounjaro and Zepbound) and Novo Nordisk's semaglutide (Ozempic and Wegovy), generating billions in annual revenue [2] Competitive Landscape - Pfizer and Viking Therapeutics are emerging as potential competitors in the weight loss market. Pfizer recently faced setbacks with its weight loss candidate danuglipron, which was discontinued due to safety concerns, while Viking's VK2735 is progressing well in clinical trials [3][5] Pfizer's Setbacks - Pfizer announced it would not continue the development of danuglipron after a patient experienced liver injury during trials. This follows a previous discontinuation of a twice-daily version due to high dropout rates and adverse effects like nausea and vomiting [5] Viking's Progress - Viking Therapeutics is advancing its oral weight loss treatment VK2735, which has shown strong interest in its phase 2 trial and is set to enter phase 3 trials for its subcutaneous version. VK2735 is a dual GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist, similar to Lilly's drugs [6][8] Market Implications - Pfizer's loss in the weight loss candidate space may benefit Viking by delaying competition in the market. There is speculation that Pfizer could consider acquiring or partnering with Viking, which would enhance Viking's market position [9][10] Investment Considerations - Viking's strong clinical trial results and the high growth potential of the weight loss market make it an attractive investment opportunity, despite the absence of market-ready products. Investors willing to take on some risk may find Viking a compelling buy [11]

Core Viewpoint - Cantor Fitzgerald believes that Viking Therapeutics' GLP-1 diet drug VK2735 has the potential to become a "multi-blockbuster," significantly boosting the company's stock value [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Viking Therapeutics' shares increased by 12.5% on Tuesday following positive endorsements from Wall Street analysts [1]. - The stock saw a rise after Truist Securities analyst Joon Lee lowered his price target but predicted benefits from phase 3 clinical trial news for VK2735 [2]. Group 2: Analyst Predictions - Cantor Fitzgerald's analyst Steven Seedhouse predicts that Viking's stock price could quadruple from $29 to $104 within a year, emphasizing a strong buy recommendation [2]. - Seedhouse's thesis is centered on VK2735, which is entering phase 3 development for general obesity, and he believes that even the injectable form alone could more than triple the stock's value [3]. Group 3: Drug Comparison and Potential - Seedhouse argues that VK2735's formulation is superior to Eli Lilly's tirzepatide, suggesting it will outperform Lilly's Zepbound and Mounjaro [4]. - The potential development of a VK2735 pill, which would eliminate the need for injections, is seen as an additional positive factor, with phase 2 data expected in the second quarter of 2025 [3].

Core Viewpoint - Viking Therapeutics is positioned for potential growth in the obesity treatment market, with a significant focus on its upcoming phase 3 clinical trials for the GLP-1 drug VK2735, despite facing competition from established players like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly [1][2]. Company Summary - Truist Securities analyst Joon Lee has lowered the price target for Viking Therapeutics from $95 to $75, citing increasing competition in the obesity space, yet still views 2025 as a critical year for the company [1]. - Viking Therapeutics aims to become a major player in the weight loss market, potentially joining Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, with even a small market share in the multibillion-dollar GLP-1 drug market being significant for the company's financials [2]. - The company currently has no revenues and is considered speculative, but achieving any drug market entry would be a notable success [3]. Financial Projections - Analysts predict Viking Therapeutics will generate less than $2 million in revenue for the current year, with expectations of rapid growth to $38 million by 2027 and reaching $729 million by 2029, the year analysts anticipate the company will turn a profit [4].

Research and Development - The company incurred $101.6 million in research and development expenses for the year ended December 31, 2024, primarily related to various clinical trials [118]. - For the three months ended March 31, 2025, the company reported $40.4 million in research and development expenses, focusing on ongoing clinical trials [118]. - Research and development expenses increased by 71.7% to $41.4 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $24.1 million in the same period of 2024 [129]. - The company expects to incur increased research and development expenses as it advances VK2735, VK2809, and VK0214 programs [128]. - The company expects to initiate Phase 3 clinical studies of VK2735 in the second quarter of 2025 based on FDA feedback [102]. - VK2735's Phase 1 trial was completed in March 2023, leading to the initiation of the Phase 2 VENTURE study in September 2023 [101]. - The Phase 2 VENTURE study of VK2735 demonstrated statistically significant mean body weight reductions of up to 14.7% from baseline after 13 weeks [102]. - VK2809 achieved its primary endpoint in the VOYAGE study, with significant reductions in liver fat content observed from baseline to Week 12 [109]. - In the VOYAGE study, up to 75% of VK2809-treated patients achieved NASH/MASH resolution with no worsening of fibrosis compared to 29% for placebo [110]. - VK0214 demonstrated significant reductions in plasma levels of VLCFAs in a Phase 1b clinical trial, indicating its potential for treating X-ALD [113]. - The company plans to file an investigational new drug application for its new DACRA program in the second half of 2024 [114]. Financial Performance - General and administrative expenses rose by 41.2% to $14.1 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, up from $10.0 million in the same period of 2024 [131]. - Total other income increased by 46.5% to $9.8 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $6.7 million in the same period of 2024 [133]. - Cash used in operating activities was $52.3 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $6.1 million in the same period of 2024 [141]. - Cash provided by investing activities was $63.2 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, primarily from proceeds of maturities of investments [144]. - As of March 31, 2025, the company had cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaling $851.9 million, sufficient to fund operations through at least June 30, 2026 [134]. - The company anticipates continued losses as it advances drug candidates and seeks regulatory approvals, necessitating additional capital to fund operations and clinical trials [148]. Stock Repurchase and Investments - The company repurchased 729,034 shares under a prior stock repurchase program, which was completed by March 18, 2024 [136]. - A new stock repurchase program was authorized in February 2025, allowing for the purchase of up to $250.0 million in shares over two years [140]. - As of March 31, 2025, cash and cash equivalents amounted to $37,940,000, an increase from $26,676,000 in 2024 [154]. - Short-term investments classified as available-for-sale totaled $813,918,000, down from $875,936,000 in 2024 [154]. - The total cash and short-term investments reached $851,858,000, compared to $902,612,000 in 2024 [154]. - A 10% increase or decrease in short-term interest rates would result in an annual interest income change of approximately $686,000 [154]. - The investment portfolio is primarily composed of U.S. government securities, investment-grade corporate bonds, and money market funds [151]. - The company does not hold any investments for trading purposes, focusing instead on preserving capital and ensuring liquidity [152]. - Interest income from cash and short-term investments will vary with fluctuations in U.S. interest rates [153]. - The company has implemented guidelines to limit the term-to-maturity of its investment instruments to manage interest rate risk [152]. - The fair value of the company's investments is not materially exposed to interest rate risk due to the conservative nature of the instruments held [152]. - The investment policy includes credit quality standards and limits exposure to any single issue or type of instrument [151].

Financial Performance - Viking Therapeutics reported a first-quarter 2025 loss of 41 cents per share, which is wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 34 cents, and a loss of 26 cents in the same quarter last year [1] - Research and development expenses increased by 72% year over year to $41.4 million, primarily due to higher manufacturing expenses for drug candidates and increased employee-related costs [1] - General and administrative expenses rose to $14.1 million, up 41% year over year, attributed to higher legal fees and employee-related expenses [2] - As of March 31, 2025, the company had cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaling $852 million, down from $903 million as of December 31, 2024 [4] Stock Performance - Shares of Viking Therapeutics declined by 2% in after-market trading, likely due to the wider-than-expected loss and increased operating expenses [2] - Year-to-date, the stock has decreased by 36%, compared to a 7% decline in the industry [2] Pipeline Developments - Viking Therapeutics is developing VK2735, a novel dual GLP-1 and GIP receptor agonist, for obesity treatment, with both oral and subcutaneous versions in clinical studies [5] - The company completed enrollment in the phase II VENTURE-Oral Dosing study for VK2735, with data expected by the end of this year [6] - Viking is on track to initiate a late-stage study for VK2735 SC in the second quarter of 2025 and plans to file an IND application with the FDA for an amylin agonist program by the end of this year [7] Company Ranking - Viking Therapeutics currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [8]

[Corporate and Pipeline Update](index=1&type=section&id=Corporate%20and%20Pipeline%20Update) [Q1 2025 Highlights](index=1&type=section&id=Q1%202025%20Highlights) Viking Therapeutics reported significant Q1 2025 progress, advancing VK2735 with Phase 3 preparation for subcutaneous, full enrollment for oral Phase 2, a new manufacturing agreement, and a strong cash position - Phase 3 trials for subcutaneous VK2735 are on track to begin in **Q2 2025**[3](index=3&type=chunk)[5](index=5&type=chunk)[6](index=6&type=chunk) - The Phase 2 VENTURE-Oral Dosing trial for the tablet formulation of VK2735 is fully enrolled, with data expected in the **second half of 2025**[3](index=3&type=chunk)[5](index=5&type=chunk)[8](index=8&type=chunk) - A broad, **multi-year** manufacturing agreement was signed with CordenPharma to support the future commercialization of VK2735, covering both API and fill/finish capacity[3](index=3&type=chunk)[5](index=5&type=chunk)[12](index=12&type=chunk) - The company maintained a strong balance sheet, ending the quarter with **$852 million** in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments[3](index=3&type=chunk)[5](index=5&type=chunk)[17](index=17&type=chunk) [VK2735 Program Update (Obesity)](index=2&type=section&id=VK2735%20Program%20Update%20%28Obesity%29) Viking is advancing its dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist, VK2735, for obesity, with the subcutaneous version entering Phase 3 in Q2 2025 and the oral tablet completing Phase 2 enrollment for H2 2025 data - **Subcutaneous VK2735**: - Set to begin **Phase 3** trials in **Q2 2025** following a successful End-of-Phase 2 meeting with the FDA[6](index=6&type=chunk)[7](index=7&type=chunk)[8](index=8&type=chunk) - Previous Phase 2 VENTURE study showed statistically significant mean body weight reductions up to **14.7%** after 13 weeks, with an encouraging safety profile[6](index=6&type=chunk)[7](index=7&type=chunk)[8](index=8&type=chunk) - **Oral VK2735**: - The 13-week Phase 2a VENTURE-Oral Dosing trial is fully enrolled with approximately **280 subjects**[8](index=8&type=chunk)[9](index=9&type=chunk)[11](index=11&type=chunk) - Top-line data from this study is expected in the **second half of 2025**[8](index=8&type=chunk)[9](index=9&type=chunk)[11](index=11&type=chunk) - Previous Phase 1 trial showed dose-dependent weight loss up to **8.2%** after 28 days[8](index=8&type=chunk)[9](index=9&type=chunk)[11](index=11&type=chunk) [Other Pipeline and Corporate Developments](index=3&type=section&id=Other%20Pipeline%20and%20Corporate%20Developments) Viking is advancing its DACRA program for obesity with an IND filing planned for H2 2025, while securing a multi-year manufacturing agreement with CordenPharma for VK2735 API and fill/finish capacity - **DACRA Program**: The company is advancing its internally developed dual amylin and calcitonin receptor agonist (DACRA) program for obesity and plans to file an IND application in the **second half of 2025**[11](index=11&type=chunk)[12](index=12&type=chunk) - **Manufacturing Agreement**: Viking entered a **multi-year** agreement with CordenPharma to secure dedicated capacity for annual manufacture of multiple **metric tons** of VK2735 API and fill/finish services for both injectable and oral forms[12](index=12&type=chunk)[13](index=13&type=chunk] - Viking will make prepayments between **2025 and 2028**, which will be credited against future orders[12](index=12&type=chunk)[13](index=13&type=chunk) [Financial Performance](index=4&type=section&id=Financial%20Performance) [Q1 2025 Financial Results](index=4&type=section&id=Q1%202025%20Financial%20Results) Viking Therapeutics reported a Q1 2025 net loss of **$45.6 million**, or **$0.41** per share, driven by increased R&D and G&A expenses primarily from manufacturing and clinical activities Financial Performance Summary | Financial Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2024 | Change (YoY) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Research & Development Expenses | $41.4 million | $24.1 million | +71.8% | | General & Administrative Expenses | $14.1 million | $10.0 million | +41.0% | | Loss from Operations | ($55.5 million) | ($34.1 million) | +62.8% | | Net Loss | ($45.6 million) | ($27.4 million) | +66.5% | | Net Loss Per Share | ($0.41) | ($0.26) | +57.7% | - The increase in R&D expenses was mainly due to manufacturing for drug candidates, clinical studies, and stock-based compensation[14](index=14&type=chunk) - The rise in G&A expenses was primarily driven by increased legal, patent, stock-based compensation, and insurance costs[15](index=15&type=chunk) [Balance Sheet and Cash Position](index=4&type=section&id=Balance%20Sheet%20and%20Cash%20Position) As of March 31, 2025, Viking Therapeutics maintained a strong financial position with **$852 million** in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, and **$846.9 million** in stockholders' equity - Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaled **$852 million** at March 31, 2025, compared to **$903 million** at December 31, 2024[17](index=17&type=chunk) Balance Sheet Summary | Balance Sheet Item | March 31, 2025 | December 31, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Total Current Assets** | **$866.0 million** | **$907.2 million** | | Total Assets | $867.0 million | $908.3 million | | Total Liabilities | $20.1 million | $28.0 million | | **Total Stockholders' Equity** | **$846.9 million** | **$880.3 million** | [Supplementary Information](index=4&type=section&id=Supplementary%20Information) [Upcoming Investor Events](index=4&type=section&id=Upcoming%20Investor%20Events) Viking management is scheduled to participate in four investor conferences during June 2025, including events hosted by William Blair, Jefferies, Goldman Sachs, and ScotiaBank - Management will participate in the following June 2025 conferences: - William Blair Annual Growth Stock Conference (June 3-5)[13](index=13&type=chunk) - Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference (June 3-5)[13](index=13&type=chunk) - 46th Annual Goldman Sachs Global Healthcare Conference (June 9-11)[13](index=13&type=chunk) - ScotiaBank Third Annual Healthcare Canadian Investor Day (June 17)[13](index=13&type=chunk) [Conference Call Information](index=5&type=section&id=Conference%20Call%20Information) The company hosted a conference call on April 23, 2025, at 4:30 pm Eastern to discuss Q1 2025 financial results, with webcast and replay options available - A conference call was scheduled for **4:30 pm Eastern** on **April 23, 2025**[19](index=19&type=chunk) - A live webcast is available on the investor relations section of the company's website, with an archive available for 30 days[19](index=19&type=chunk)

Core Insights - Viking Therapeutics reported strong progress in its clinical pipeline, particularly with VK2735, a dual agonist for obesity treatment, with Phase 3 trials expected to begin in Q2 2025 [2][3][5] - The company has a robust financial position with over $850 million in cash, enabling continued development of its pipeline programs [2][16] Financial Performance - Research and development expenses increased to $41.4 million in Q1 2025 from $24.1 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to higher manufacturing costs and clinical studies [13] - General and administrative expenses rose to $14.1 million in Q1 2025 from $10.0 million in Q1 2024, driven by legal, patent services, and stock-based compensation [14] - The net loss for Q1 2025 was $45.6 million, or $0.41 per share, compared to a net loss of $27.4 million, or $0.26 per share, in the same period of 2024 [15][23] Clinical Pipeline Developments - VK2735 demonstrated significant weight loss in the Phase 2 VENTURE study, with reductions in mean body weight up to 14.7% after 13 weeks of treatment [3][4] - The VENTURE-Oral Dosing trial for VK2735 has completed enrollment with approximately 280 participants, and results are expected in the second half of 2025 [10][11] - The company is advancing its dual amylin and calcitonin receptor agonist (DACRA) program, with an IND application planned for the second half of 2025 [11][19] Manufacturing and Commercialization - Viking entered a broad manufacturing agreement with CordenPharma to secure large-scale production of VK2735, covering both injectable and oral formulations [2][12] - The agreement includes dedicated capacity for multiple metric tons of VK2735 API and fill/finish capabilities [12] Upcoming Events - Viking management will participate in several investor conferences in June 2025, including the William Blair Annual Growth Stock Conference and the Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference [12]

Group 1 - Viking Therapeutics is set to focus on key pipeline updates during its first-quarter earnings call, particularly on three clinical candidates: VK2735 for obesity, VK2809 for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and VK0214 for X-linked adrenoleukodystrophy (X-ALD) [1] - VK2735 is highlighted as a significant interest due to the growing trend in obesity treatments and the transformative effects of weight loss in the consumer health space [2] - The company has shown a classic reversal bottom in its stock price, indicating potential positive momentum, and is currently outperforming benchmarks on the Leadership indicator [3] Group 2 - The weekly chart analysis indicates that VKTX is in a distribution phase rather than a bear phase, with the 200-week moving average serving as a strong support area for the stock price [4] - The stock price is currently trading at levels similar to the end of 2023, with a notable peak at $100, suggesting potential for recovery [5] - A weekly close above $24.50 is seen as a positive indicator, with the potential for rewards exceeding risks by 4-5 times [5]