Investment Rating - The report maintains a defensive positioning recommendation for the industry due to tariff risks and a cautious macro outlook [4][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of US tariffs on Japanese stocks, identifying 59 stocks with relatively high exposure and 63 stocks with relatively low exposure to potential 24% reciprocal tariffs [9]. - Export-heavy industries such as technology, automotive, and shipping are noted to have higher tariff exposure, while domestic-oriented sectors like retail and food show a divergence in impact [4]. - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to remain on hold regarding interest rates, with potential adjustments depending on the outcome of US tariff negotiations [5]. Summary by Sections Tariff Exposure Analysis - Analysts identified stocks with high and low exposure to US tariffs, emphasizing the need for investors to consider these factors in their investment decisions [3][9]. - The report provides a detailed list of companies most and least exposed to US tariff impacts, categorizing them by industry [10][11]. Economic Outlook - The report discusses the potential for an economic slowdown and its implications for corporate earnings, particularly in light of US tariffs [5][9]. - The macroeconomic strategy team anticipates that the Japanese Yen (JPY) will be supported by the Federal Reserve's actions in response to a US economic slowdown [5]. Stock Recommendations - The report includes specific stock recommendations based on their exposure to tariffs, with ratings such as Equal-Weight, Underweight, and Overweight assigned to various companies [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report highlights ten stock picks rated as "Buy" that are expected to be resilient in the current uncertain economic environment [11][23]. Core Insights - The initial sell-off in the market was broad-based, with 99% of S&P 500 stocks declining, but the recovery has been uneven, primarily driven by technology stocks [3][11]. - A bottom-up approach is recommended to understand how policies impact individual companies, especially in light of ongoing macroeconomic and policy uncertainties [4][11]. - The report anticipates continued volatility in equity markets as macro and micro data worsen, with a focus on defensive sectors [4][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Overview - The S&P 500 has outperformed the equal-weighted index, with a significant contribution from technology stocks, while many sectors, particularly recession-resilient ones like healthcare, remain below pre-sell-off levels [3][22][19]. - Only 35% of S&P 500 stocks have recovered to pre-Liberation Day levels, indicating a challenging recovery landscape [3][11]. Stock Picks - **AIG (AIG US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 93.00, expected to benefit from its solid risk management and low leverage [6][23]. - **American Tower (AMT US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 245.00, noted for its geographical diversification and resilience in a high-tariff environment [6][24]. - **Coca-Cola (KO US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 82.00, positioned to leverage its brand strength and local sourcing to mitigate tariff impacts [6][29]. - **Johnson & Johnson (JNJ US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 184.00, recognized for its diversified portfolio and strong R&D pipeline [6][30]. - **McDonald's (MCD US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 343.00, expected to benefit from its franchise model and focus on affordability [6][34]. - **Oracle (ORCL US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 246.00, anticipated to capitalize on AI demand and improve revenue growth [6][37]. - **Procter & Gamble (PG US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 185.00, noted for its strong brand equity and global supply chain [6][40]. - **TechnipFMC (FTI US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 36.00, positioned to benefit from its operational efficiencies [6][43]. - **Walmart (WMT US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 108.00, expected to maintain its market position amid economic challenges [6]. - **Waste Management (WM US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 265.00, recognized for its stable revenue model [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Aluminum Corp of China (Chalco) H/A shares, with target prices adjusted to HKD6.10 for H-shares and RMB9.80 for A-shares, implying upside potentials of approximately 42% and 48% respectively [5][40]. Core Insights - Chalco reported a net profit after tax (NPAT) of approximately RMB3.5 billion in 1Q25, reflecting a 5% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 59% year-on-year increase, attributed to better-than-expected sales volume and average selling prices (ASP) for aluminum and alumina [1][9]. - The company expects capital expenditures of RMB14.8 billion in 2025, focusing on wind power projects and new alumina production sites, while aiming to increase green power usage from 47% in 2024 to 55% in 2025 [2][9]. - Despite solid fundamentals for aluminum, earnings are expected to decline by approximately 12% in 2025 due to lower alumina prices, with the alumina price already below breakeven levels [3][9]. Financial Performance - In 1Q25, Chalco's sales volumes for self-produced aluminum decreased by 5% quarter-on-quarter, while alumina sales increased by 6% quarter-on-quarter. However, revenue and gross profits fell by 12% and 29% quarter-on-quarter respectively due to a significant drop in alumina prices [1][31]. - The company recorded a decrease in selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses by 6% year-on-year and 66% quarter-on-quarter, indicating effective cost control [1][31]. - Investment income rose by RMB0.37 billion in 1Q25, driven by higher alumina prices year-on-year and gains from hedging [36]. Production and Operational Strategy - Chalco's aluminum production operating rate reached 95% in China, supported by demand from electric vehicles, batteries, and solar products [3][9]. - The company plans to relocate alumina production from inland to coastal provinces to reduce transportation costs and expects to close down 1-2 million tons of alumina production in 2025 [2][34]. - Chalco aims to optimize its alumina capacity of 25 million tons by utilizing lower-cost imported bauxite, which may lead to some impairment losses [34]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates steady aluminum prices in 2025, supported by robust demand from the "New Three" sectors, while alumina prices are expected to have limited downside due to their current low levels [3][9]. - The coal price and electricity costs remained weak in 1Q25, which may benefit Chalco's operational costs [3][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for HKEX with a target price of HKD411.00, unchanged from previous assessments, indicating a potential upside of 21.7% from the current share price of HKD337.80 [5][6][21]. Core Insights - HKEX announced the purchase of its permanent headquarters from Hong Kong Land for HKD6.3 billion, which includes enhancement works valued at HKD400 million for a total area of 147,025 sq. ft. The implied cost per square foot is HKD40,129 [2][11]. - The management indicated that the deal could be financed by reallocating their external investment portfolio, which may lead to a decline in net investment income by HKD217 million to HKD434 million. This could impact HKEX's net profit by 1.4% to 2.8% in 2025 [3][4]. - Despite the negative impact on investment income, the management views the purchase as a strategic commitment to enhance Hong Kong's status as a global financial center [4][11]. Financial Overview - For the fiscal year ending December 2024, total revenue is projected at HKD22.374 billion, with a growth rate of 9.1% year-on-year. By 2027, total revenue is expected to reach HKD27.554 billion [14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at HKD11.15, with a projected dividend yield of 3.0% [7][14]. - The report highlights a cost-to-income ratio of 27.2% for 2025, indicating operational efficiency [14]. Market Position - HKEX is positioned as a key platform connecting capital between Hong Kong and mainland China, benefiting from elevated average daily turnover (ADT) and improved initial public offering (IPO) flows [5][21]. - The report emphasizes HKEX's strategic role as a super-connector between global east and west, which is expected to drive long-term growth [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a preference for platinum, copper, and rhodium as preferred metals, while cobalt is deemed least-preferred [12][20][30]. Core Insights - The metals market is experiencing significant volatility due to global policy uncertainty, particularly surrounding tariffs, which are impacting demand and supply chains [12][20][27]. - The implementation of tariffs is expected to lead to price divergence between regions, with U.S. prices likely to be at a premium compared to international prices [3][17]. - Concerns over global economic growth, particularly in China, are intensifying, which could further affect metal consumption [5][23]. Summary by Sections Muddled Outlook - The market has seen a range of views on metal prices, with uncertainty prevailing due to tariffs and their potential impact on monetary policy and economic growth [2][14]. - Policymakers in China will need to increase support to bolster internal demand to meet GDP growth targets [2][23]. Price Forecast Changes - Price forecasts for metals have been adjusted due to recent volatility, with platinum and copper remaining preferred, while cobalt is least-preferred [7][29]. - The report indicates that rhodium has moved from neutral to preferred due to tightening market conditions [7][30]. Tariffs and Their Impact - The U.S. imports a significant portion of its metal demand, and the ongoing tariffs could disrupt commodity supply chains and increase risks for demand [16][17]. - A potential 25% tariff on copper is anticipated, which could further complicate the market dynamics [16][18]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply issues are expected to continue influencing prices, with specific metals like cobalt and manganese experiencing price fluctuations due to supply constraints [26][67]. - The report highlights that while demand for electric vehicles (EVs) is a key driver for some metals, recent trends indicate a slowdown in EV sales momentum [25][26]. Commodity Price Performance - The report notes that prices for various metals have shown sharp volatility, with some metals experiencing a decline due to economic growth concerns [27][28]. - Gold prices reached a record high of USD 3,167/oz, driven by safe-haven demand amid economic uncertainty [28]. Specific Metal Insights - **Copper**: Prices are expected to remain balanced in the near term, but potential tariffs could lead to a structural deficit in the long term [71][72]. - **Aluminum**: The market is projected to remain in modest surplus in 2025, with robust demand from China offsetting some weaknesses [69][70]. - **Cobalt**: The market is expected to remain in surplus due to increased supply and a challenging demand outlook [66].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook for gold, suggesting that it may correct in the near term but remains in a rally phase [5][6][9]. Core Insights - Gold prices surged to a record high of USD3,500/oz, driven by strong demand from China and concerns over tariffs, particularly between the US and China [3][4]. - The report highlights that the gold market appears overstretched and may need to consolidate, favoring lower prices in the immediate term [9]. - Silver's performance is closely tied to gold, with the gold/silver ratio reaching record highs, although silver fundamentals remain sluggish [10]. Market Focus and Emerging Trends - The report notes a significant shift away from the USD towards gold, with a notable increase in domestic demand for gold in China, as indicated by a USD55/oz spread between onshore and offshore prices [3]. - Investor sentiment was influenced by negative comments from the White House regarding the Federal Reserve, which contributed to fluctuations in gold prices [4][7]. - The potential for a de-escalation in US-China trade tensions could impact gold demand, as positive developments in equity markets may reduce the appetite for gold [8]. Price Movements and Speculative Positions - As of April 15, 2025, speculative positions in gold show a long position of 32.112 million ounces and a net position of 23.19 million ounces, indicating bullish sentiment despite recent price corrections [2]. - The report suggests that any major retracement in gold could undermine silver prices, while platinum group metals (PGMs) may rally on positive trade news [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for McDonald's and Domino's, while Starbucks and Shake Shack are rated as "Hold" [4][46]. Core Insights - The US restaurant sector outlook is tempered due to macroeconomic pressures, geopolitical uncertainty, and changing consumer behaviors, leading to a reduction in adjusted net earnings estimates by approximately 4% for 2025-26 [2][3]. - Same-store sales (SSS) are expected to decline by an average of 90 basis points year-over-year for 2025-26, primarily due to affordability issues affecting lower-income consumers, although there is some mitigation from higher-income diners trading down for value [2][3]. - The report emphasizes a preference for defensive, value-driven leaders with operational agility, highlighting McDonald's and Domino's as favorable investments due to their resilient franchise revenue streams and scalable operating models [3][25]. Summary by Company McDonald's - McDonald's is recognized for its resilient revenue stream, primarily from its 95% franchised model, and its broad geographic footprint, which provides diversification [7][25]. - The target price for McDonald's is revised to USD 343.00, reflecting a 10.2% upside potential [4][46]. - The company is expected to benefit from a multi-layered pricing strategy and digital transformation initiatives, which are anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and customer engagement [25][26]. Domino's - Domino's is noted for its strong franchise model and predictable income streams, allowing for continued investment in growth and innovation [7][30]. - The target price for Domino's is set at USD 540.00, indicating a 15.7% upside potential [4][46]. - The company is expected to leverage its marketing and distribution expertise to drive international growth, particularly in markets like China and India [30][31]. Starbucks - Starbucks is undergoing tactical changes aimed at long-term turnaround, with a focus on enhancing brand value and customer experience [7][37]. - The target price for Starbucks is lowered to USD 84.00, reflecting a 3.1% upside potential [4][46]. - Despite challenges, the company is expected to stabilize its same-store sales declines and improve customer engagement through operational initiatives [37][49]. Shake Shack - Shake Shack is recognized for its differentiated brand equity and commitment to high-quality menu items, with a solid development pipeline expected to drive growth [7][42]. - The target price for Shake Shack is revised to USD 89.00, indicating a 6.9% upside potential [4][46]. - The company faces headwinds from competition and macroeconomic concerns, but it is positioned to capitalize on its brand strength and market opportunities [42][50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "neutral" investment rating for the Indian power sector, reflecting a cautious outlook on demand growth and pricing dynamics [9]. Core Insights - Power demand in India grew by approximately 6.6% year-on-year in March 2025 but slowed to about 1.7% in the first 20 days of April due to a high base effect from the previous year [10][17]. - For FY25, overall power demand growth is projected to slow to around 3.9%, with renewable energy (RE) contributing significantly to this growth [13][20]. - The report highlights a notable increase in renewable capacity, with approximately 29GW added in FY25, accounting for about one-third of the overall demand growth [4][36]. Summary by Sections Power Demand Trends - Power requirement and peak power demand grew by approximately 7% and 6% respectively in March, primarily driven by heat waves, but growth slowed to about 2% in April [2][10]. - The high base from FY24 has led to a decrease in demand growth expectations for FY25, with a forecasted growth of around 4% compared to 8-10% in FY22-24 [3][13]. Renewable Energy Contributions - Renewable energy accounted for about 33% of the incremental demand growth in FY25, with solar energy being the primary contributor [4][42]. - Total renewable capacity reached 172GW by the end of March 2025, representing 36% of the total installed capacity [35]. Storage and Tender Activity - There has been a rise in storage-only tenders, with 4GWh of capacity awarded in CY25, as DISCOMs aim to manage peak demand more effectively [5][134]. - The report notes that 38GW of contracted renewable capacity tenders were concluded in FY25, with a significant portion being hybrid capacities [5][134]. Pricing and Market Dynamics - The average IEX prices have stabilized at INR4.3-4.4/kWh, reflecting a 15% year-on-year decline for April [63]. - The price of Indian-made solar modules has decreased to USD0.15 per Watt-peak, down 9% from five months ago and 32% from a year ago [6][131]. State-Level Demand Variations - Demand in major states like Maharashtra and Gujarat showed strong growth, while Tamil Nadu experienced a decline [90][94]. - The report provides detailed monthly growth percentages for electricity demand across various states, highlighting regional disparities [90].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AccoTest and a "Hold" rating for SG Micro and Maxscend [4][8][56]. Core Insights - The latest import tariff regulations on US semiconductors are expected to create a supply shortage, price hikes, and import substitution, particularly benefiting domestic analog and RF markets [8][10]. - The localization trend in the semiconductor industry is anticipated to accelerate due to China-US tensions, enhancing the bargaining power of domestic companies [11][22]. - The report highlights that analog (over 20%) and RF (approximately 50%) segments will benefit significantly from higher tariffs on US suppliers, while memory and advanced logic categories are less affected [3][10]. Summary by Sections Company Ratings and Estimates - AccoTest is projected to have a target price of RMB 182.50, reflecting an 18% upside from its current price [5][56]. - SG Micro's target price is adjusted to RMB 100.60, indicating a 10% downside from its current price, maintaining a Hold rating due to tariff tensions [4][34]. - Maxscend's target price is revised to RMB 79.70, also maintaining a Hold rating, with a 4% downside from the current price [41][45]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the localization ratio for analog ICs was 24% in 2024, with expectations for further increases due to tariff impacts [11][22]. - Domestic suppliers are expected to gain market share in the RF segment, particularly in mid- to high-tier smartphone models, as tariffs incentivize localization [15][16]. - The report notes that while discrete and power semiconductors have achieved high localization rates, further upside in these areas is limited compared to analog and RF segments [22][24]. Financial Projections - SG Micro's revenue estimates for 2025 are increased by 2% to RMB 4,101 million, with net profit estimates raised by 7% to RMB 706 million [30][31]. - Maxscend's revenue estimates for 2025 are lowered by 2% to RMB 5,340 million, with net profit estimates reduced by 18% to RMB 551 million [41][44]. - AccoTest's revenue is projected to reach RMB 1,186 million in 2025, with a net profit of RMB 471 million [57].

Asia Economics Comment Economics China and the 'tariff cascade' China Trade tensions between the US and China cast a wide shadow. Bilateral trade is bound to suffer, of course, even if tariffs may be rolled back under an eventual deal. However, the bigger issue for China, and arguably the world, is whether restrictions will also be imposed by other economies on Chinese imports. Two mechanisms are at play. One, competitive pressure from US-diverted Chinese shipments could raise protectionist demands. Two, th ...