China Coal Equities No relief on inventory issue China Recent update on market inventory: Coal inventory in the market, at historically high levels, has become the key drag on the coal spot price in China this year. In the past week, some in the market were relieved to see the inventory level at the northern ports (Bohai ring) come down below the 30mt the level. However, the majority of the previous stock had been diverted to ports in the Yangtze River, rather than shipped to end users (source: China 5e). A ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Global trade is undergoing significant structural shifts, particularly influenced by US tariff policies and the reconfiguration of supply chains [2][6] - China has increased its involvement in global trade corridors, now being a top import source for 180 markets, predominantly emerging economies [3][4] - The US-Mexico corridor has become the largest goods corridor globally, benefiting from US-China trade tensions [4][6] - Emerging markets are increasingly fostering closer trade relations, particularly in the China-MENA corridor, which has seen rapid growth [6][12] Summary by Sections Trade Flows and Corridors - A decade ago, China was involved in 13 of the top 30 goods import corridors; this has increased to 17 by 2024 [3][15] - The US-Mexico corridor has surpassed the US-China corridor in terms of import volume [4][15] - The share of Chinese value-added in US imports from Vietnam has been rising, indicating a complex interdependence despite trade tensions [5][61] Trade Dynamics and Shifts - Trade is now traveling further geographically than it did 10-15 years ago, with a notable increase in the average distance for top trade corridors [5][76] - The report highlights that while nearshoring is discussed, the overall trend shows trade is expanding in distance [5][76] - The EU remains a significant import source for many economies, but its relative importance has declined over the years [42][44] Future Trade Projections - Ongoing protectionism and varying US tariff rates may create opportunities for tariff arbitrage, making certain markets more attractive for sourcing [6][12] - The report anticipates continued growth in intra-BRICS+ trade, projected to increase by 20% by 2030 [122] - Two-way goods trade between Asia and MENA is expected to more than double by 2035, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [125]

14 April 2025 Equity Research Report China Equity Strategy Equity Strategy 2Q25: Resilient, but tariffs will take a toll on earnings More earnings pain. A lot has changed since our last report on 7 April. Given the ratcheting up of US-China tariffs and trade tensions, in an updated sensitivity analysis we now estimate the escalation of tariffs on China imports will drag down CSI300 earnings by 5-7%, vs our previous forecast of 3-4%. However, the situation remains fluid and could change rapidly. As a result ...

Asia Memory Equities HSBC Global Investment Summit 2025 takeaways and marketing feedback During the GIS conference, we met several investors and hosted Samsung Electronics. Strong concerns about demand. Key issues were: 1) demand outlook for AI in smartphones and PCs along with memory content growth, 2) memory supply and demand outlook along with price forecast, 3) capex outlook for China and US CSP as well as oversupply concerns on high bandwidth memory (HBM) and data centre investment. For Samsung: 1) sal ...

Bilibili Inc (BILI US) Hold: HSBC Global Investment Summit 2025 key takeaways 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha We hosted Bilibili's IR Director, Ms Juliet Yang, at HSBC's Global Investment Summit 2025 on 25 March. Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. MDDI (P) 005/01/2025 MDDI (P) 006/09/2024 MDDI (P) 004/10/2024 MDDI (P) 020/10/2024 MAINTAIN HOLD TARGET PRICE (USD) PRE ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha Trip.com Group (TCOM US) Buy: HSBC Global Investment Summit 2025 key takeaways ◆ Domestic hotel ADR softened but volume remains healthy; conservative outbound and overseas guidance leave upsides We hosted Trip.com's IR team during the HSBC Global Investment Summit (25-27 March) and share the key takeaways below. Please RSVP for detailed takeaways. What are investors most concerned about at meetings: Investors are keen to understand: (1) the growth potential, competitive lands ...

Both cash levels and risk appetite are up as EM investors balance risk of trade tensions with hopes of a rebound in China and Europe Mixed regional preferences; net FX sentiment improves significantly on softer USD; some appetite for hard currency debt; EM equities receive a shot in the arm Play video with Dr. Murat Ulgen By: Dr. Murat Ulgen and the EM Research Team Multi-Asset Emerging Markets www.research.hsbc.com March 2025 HSBC EM Sentiment Survey From 'neutral-land' with love Investors are understandab ...

Disruptive Technology Data Science & Equities Global Thematic research www.research.hsbc.com March 2025 By: Shiva Joon and the Data Science & Equities team Funding the Future Survey Tariffs dampen sentiment Near-term sentiment has deteriorated for both private and public investors Geopolitical risk and tariff uncertainty are key headwinds, but investors still feel positive about the longer term Public investors feel strongly bullish on healthcare, while private investors are optimistic on IPO outlook Disclo ...

Investment Rating - The report highlights nine best stock ideas in the MENAT region, all rated as "Buy" [7][61]. Core Insights - The MENAT region is experiencing positive trends across various sectors, driven by demographic growth, tourism, and regulatory developments [4][5][24][66]. - The aviation sector is optimistic about growth, with expectations of a unified GCC visa and increased tourism in Türkiye [17][19]. - Consumer companies are seeing long-term growth potential, particularly in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, supported by favorable demographics [24][25]. - The financial sector in Saudi Arabia is optimistic about loan growth, while UAE banks are also expected to perform well despite potential challenges from oil price fluctuations [26][27]. - The healthcare sector is preparing for the implementation of DRGs, which will favor high-complexity procedures [32][33]. - The oil and gas sector is focused on ongoing projects and expansion strategies, with ADNOC Drilling and ADNOC Gas highlighted as key players [43][44]. - Real estate companies are optimistic about continued growth, with expectations for higher sales values in 2025 [47][48]. - Telecommunications companies are confident in sustaining dividends and earnings growth, particularly Mobily [52][53]. - The utilities sector is benefiting from regulatory developments and capacity expansion plans, with Empower and Tabreed noted for their growth prospects [58][66]. Sector Summaries Aviation - The aviation sector had a strong year and anticipates further growth driven by tourism and potential market openings [16][17][19]. Consumer - Long-term consumption drivers in the UAE and Saudi Arabia are supported by demographic trends, though short-term optimism varies by subsector [24][25]. Financials - Saudi banks are optimistic about loan growth, while UAE banks are expected to maintain strong performance despite external pressures [26][27][30]. Healthcare - The healthcare sector is focusing on premium services and preparing for DRG implementation, which will impact pricing dynamics [32][33]. Insurance - The long-term outlook for Saudi insurance remains robust, with multiple drivers expected to support growth [34][35]. Oil & Gas - Companies in the oil and gas sector are focused on project updates and expansion strategies, with ADNOC Drilling highlighted for its growth potential [43][44]. Real Estate - Real estate companies are optimistic about sales growth in 2025, supported by economic conditions and population growth [47][48]. Telcos - MENA telecommunications companies are confident in their earnings and dividend growth outlook, particularly Mobily [52][53]. Transportation - The transportation sector is benefiting from increased tourism and regulatory changes, with growth expected from variable pricing strategies [55]. Utilities - The utilities sector is experiencing growth driven by regulatory developments and expansion plans, with Empower noted for its strong market position [58][66].

汇丰晋信春季策略会 20250228 摘要 • 央行货币政策收紧与市场降息预期背离，导致债市波动性增加。尽管经济 出现初步好转迹象，但整体尚未触底反弹，债券收益率未见趋势性上行。 • 当前低利率环境要求调整交易策略，不宜过度拉长久期。短端利率上升提 供交易空间，中长端债券需关注资金成本与 OMO 利差，适时降低久期。 • 年初市场看多情绪强烈，但央行资金成本偏紧，需调整交易结构，量化资 金成本指标，如连续高于 OMO 一定比例并持续一周，则应降久期。 • 7 日回购利率与短债、长债倒挂意味着借贷成本高昂，需对未来资本增值 有积极预期才能覆盖成本，因此需精准把握交易节奏，动态调整投资组合。 • 当前借钱加杠杆策略不可取，因资金成本倒挂。关注资金成本变化，如 IDIS 连续三天下行，可尝试加杠杆，赚取确定性收益，否则应保持谨慎。 • 经济复苏关键在于政府如何加杠杆，观察政府基金支出是否转为正增长， 关注 PPI 转正，打通宽货币到宽信用的传导链条，解决中长期贷款同比负 增长问题。 • 判断经济复苏需政府性资金支出持续上升至少三个月，短期债券配置保持 积极，受资金成本和边际变化影响。中长期看，整体经济形势和债券市场 ...