Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market showed a strong performance after the May Day holiday, with major indices rising significantly, including the Shanghai Composite Index which closed at 3,140.72 points, up 1.16% [57] - The report highlights that the energy and communication services sectors experienced declines, while other sectors saw gains, particularly high-speed rail transportation and food and beverage sectors [57] - The report notes that the Chinese commodity price index has shown an upward trend, particularly in the non-ferrous and chemical industries, with significant increases in chemical raw materials and products [57] Group 2 - The report discusses the positive outlook for the energy and chemical sectors, driven by favorable policies and expectations of economic recovery, suggesting that energy prices, particularly crude oil, are likely to remain high [20] - The report mentions that companies like China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Petroleum are expected to see growth in profitability due to their integrated capabilities and high dividend yields [20] - The report emphasizes the potential for high-quality growth in the new production capacity sector, with expectations of overseas interest rate cuts and inventory replenishment driving positive market dynamics [20] Group 3 - The report highlights that Alibaba's e-commerce business is expected to show improvement, with total revenue projected to grow by 6.5% year-on-year, reaching 221.7 billion RMB [18] - The report indicates that Alibaba's international retail business is anticipated to maintain a strong growth rate of 50% year-on-year, although its cloud business is still in a transitional phase [18] - The report suggests that Alibaba's new management is focusing on user and customer growth, which is expected to enhance revenue performance [18] Group 4 - The report states that the recent macroeconomic data indicates a certain degree of divergence in the mainland economy, with consumer spending still needing recovery despite an increase in the number of consumers during the May Day holiday [7] - The report mentions that the government is expected to accelerate the issuance of special bonds and implement policies to stimulate consumption and investment demand [7] - The report notes that the PMI data shows a marginal slowdown in the economic recovery momentum, indicating the need for continued policy support [7]

本次会议为中信证券摆名单会议仅限受邀客户参会未经中信证券和演讲嘉宾书面许可任何机构和个人不得以任何形式将会议内容和相关信息动外公布转发转载传播复制编辑修改等如有上述违法行为中信证券保留追究相关方法律责任的权利 好的各位投资者朋友大家晚上好我是中银证券的A股策略分析师杨家继欢迎参加我们的阅读金股电话会整个会议流程是由我先汇报一下近期的策略观点还有市场的一个观察情况包括我们的这个实质阅读金股的一个选股思路然后后面的实质金股会由这个行业组的老师Igor去进行一个分享首先我先谈一下这个策略观点因为其实近期行情变化比较大但是其实起点的话 更多还是要看港股这个港股我们观察到可以说是它的拐点基本上是跟美元指数这轮走到出顶的这样一个位置是同时出现的而且其实在前面两周的一个时间内大部分的时间港股的日内波动其实是和日元的汇率是高度吻合的这证明其实就是这轮行情的起点更多来讲是由一轮去堵全球流动性偏宽松的这样一个 偏量化的一个资金去启动的但是后面的我们不管是看到美国的消费就业还是说这样一个通胀数据确实印证了流动性的预期开始从一个极端的不着陆或者说是甚至要往加息的方向去走开始往一个按照正常9月份可能就联储出现第一次降息的这种情况均值的 ...

Summary of the Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call pertains to CITIC Securities, specifically focusing on the technology and sensor sectors for the year-end report of 2023 and the first report of 2024 [1] Core Points and Arguments - The call began with a disclaimer, indicating the importance of the information being shared and the confidentiality of the discussions [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - All participants were muted at the start of the call, suggesting a structured format for the presentation and discussion [1]

股 票 非农数据低于预期，失业率高于预 期，美债收益率曲线大幅下行 6-8 个 bps；美元债方面，上周五一假 期，叠加市场等待非农数据，整体 市场交易不多，但总体向上。地产 板块大幅走强。 上周五，欧洲股市整体上涨，泛欧斯托克 600 指数收市上涨 0.46%；三大股市收涨，其中英国股市创纪录新 高。英国富时 100 指数收报 8,213 点，上升 0.51%或 41 点；德国 DAX 指数收报 18,001 点，上升 0.59%或 105 点；法国 CAC 40 指数收报 7,957 点，上涨 0.54%或 42 点。 阿里巴巴 (BABA US; 81.33 美元；目标价: 125 美元) 预期电子商务增长改善。公司拟于 5 月 14 日公 布 2024 财年四季度 (截至 3 月) 业绩，阿里巴巴电子商务业务可能会带来惊喜，但随着投资的增加，利润表现可能 会令人失望。我们预计总收入将同比增长 6.5%至 2,217 亿元人民币，其中中国商品交易总额 (GMV) 可能超过零售 额增长，客户管理收入 (CMR) 可能同比增长约 4%。国际零售业也将保持同比 50%的稳健增长。但云计算仍处于转 型期，降价可 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights a general increase in global bond markets, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, particularly in the US and UK [38][43][44] - The US Treasury yield is at 4.67%, with a one-month return of -0.5% and a year-to-date return of -2.2% [1] - European Central Bank is expected to lower interest rates by mid-2024 due to revised inflation and GDP growth forecasts [54] Group 2: UK Market Focus - The UK labor market is showing signs of weakness, which may lead to further monetary policy easing [43][44] - The report suggests a positive outlook for the banking and energy sectors, particularly for companies like Shell and HSBC [45][46] - HSBC has announced a new $3 billion share buyback, exceeding market expectations, and maintains a stable capital ratio target [30] Group 3: Brazilian Market Focus - Brazil's inflation has exceeded market expectations, with real wage growth indicating persistent inflationary pressures [60][61] - The Brazilian Central Bank emphasizes the interaction of fiscal and monetary policies in response to inflation [61] - The report suggests focusing on undervalued and liquid stocks in the Brazilian market due to uncertainties [63] Group 4: Fund Recommendations - The report recommends the JPMorgan European Dynamic Fund, which focuses on high-quality companies with attractive valuations and improving prospects [48][49] - The fund employs a rigorous fundamental and quantitative research approach to stock selection [48] - The fund has shown a year-to-date return of 11.03% and a three-month return of 9.52% [49]

股 票 5 月 2 日，港股节后开市三大指数 强势上涨；欧洲股市中，英国股市 上涨，法国和德国股市下跌；美股 主要指数齐涨，金龙指数涨逾 6%；亚太市场个别发展，中港股 领涨，印尼股领跌。 周四美债收益率及美元指数下跌， 日元领涨 G-10 货币，市场猜测日 本官方出手干预；市场预计 OPEC+将把减产措施延长到下半 年，美国库存增加抵消中东潜在停 火消息，周四国际油价窄幅波动。 非农数据发布前美债大幅上涨，收 益率曲线走陡，市场还在消化美联 储的鸽派发言；美元债方面，中国 高收益继续表现，地产板块向上趋 势延续，债券普遍上涨 1-4%，万 科领头，困境板块也开始回暖，出 现了很多旭辉的买盘。欧洲 AT1 比 较活跃，整体价格上升 0.5-1%。 产品及投资方案部 I 环球市场动态 I 2024 年 5 月 3 日 欧 美 市 场 周三美联储议息宣布 6 月开始放缓缩表，会后主席鲍威尔称下次的利率行动不太可能是加息，话总体中性偏 鸽，美国国债收益率连续 2 日下跌，10 年期债息跌 4.72 个基点至 4.58%，科技股造好支持美股上升，道指 2 连涨。截至收盘，道指报 38,225 点，升 322 点或 0 ...

环球市场动态 2024 年 4 月 30 日 内 地 主 动 补 库 阶 段 尚未到来 上周周内为中国国内宏观数据真空期，周六发布了工业企业利润。海外方面，美国数据显示通胀仍然高企，且 部分投资者担心美国经济基本面走弱；同时，中东局势还在持续演绎升级，总体来看海外经济数据和地缘政治 风险带来市场避险情绪升温。2024 年 3 月，內地规上工企利润同比下降 3.5%，增速较前值下降 13.7 个百分 点。3 月工企利润增速下滑的主要原因是工业生产修复斜率有所放缓以及 PPI 同比仍在低位运行使得工企营收 增速较前值回落。根据我们的测算，3 月规上工业企业名义和实际库存增速分别较今年前两月增加 0.1、0.2 个 百分点，但考虑到 3 月工企营收增速有所下滑，因此我们判断主动补库阶段尚未到来，3 月库存变化反映的是 库存周期的小幅回踩。 重点新闻：美国财政部意外将 4-6 月联邦借款规模的预估上调至 2,430 亿美元；欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩、法 国总统马克龙和习近平将于 5 月 6 日在巴黎举行三边会晤；欧洲央行副行长表示，央行在实现通膨目标上面临 重大风险；德国通胀出现 12 月份以来首次加速；七国集团 (G ...

环球市场动态 日 本 央 行 如 期 维 持 政 策 不 变 重点新闻：美国 3 月核心个人消费支出价格指数环比上升 0.3%；美国 4 月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值降 至 77.2；Republic First Bank 成为美国今年首家倒闭的银行；日本央行行长暗示货币政策将保持宽松；日本计 划扩大对与半导体和量子计算相关的四种技术的出口限制；中国 3 月全国规模以上工业企业利润同比下降 3.5%；中国国家主席习近平上周五在北京会见美国国务卿布林肯；中国总理李强指出，优化营商环境是提振社 会信心、激发市场活力、增强发展后劲的重要抓手；成都今日起取消购房限制措施；特斯拉创始人马斯克临时 访问中国并与国务院总理李强会面；据透露，苹果公司已重启与 OpenAI 谈判以探索在苹果产品中添加 AI 新 功能；必和必拓集团据悉正在考虑提出收购英美资源集团的改进建议。 上周五亚太市场中，大中华地区股 市领涨，澳股和印尼股市跌超 1%；欧洲股市整体收高，三大市 场同步收涨；美股三大指数上涨， 金龙指数大涨 2.45%。 2024 年 4 月 29 日 日本央行在 4 月货币政策会议如期维持政策利率目标和购债计划不变，在季 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the A-share market is expected to focus on the optimization of real estate policies and the resolution of overcapacity issues, with no significant incremental macro policies anticipated [79][82][83] - The first quarter of 2024 saw China's GDP grow by 5.3% year-on-year, indicating resilience and vitality in the economy, driven by strong industrial production and stable growth in retail sales [80][81] - The report suggests that investors should pay attention to companies with stable cash returns, particularly in sectors like hydropower, insurance, and banks, while also considering the expansion of overseas business logic in industries such as machinery and logistics [83][84] Group 2 - The report notes that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from the expansion of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect mechanism, although the effectiveness of these measures remains to be observed [69][70] - The report emphasizes that the measures are likely to boost market sentiment, particularly for companies like China Railway and China Shenhua [69][71] - The report indicates that the global geopolitical situation is complex, which may provide a favorable environment for China, characterized by stable macroeconomic conditions and low inflation [65]

人 行 关 注 资 金 淀 空 转 的 问 题 周三港股和 A 股携手齐涨；欧洲股 市先涨后跌，三大股市均收跌；美 股涨跌不一，道指下跌，标指、纳 指收涨；亚太股市普遍上涨，台股 领涨，澳股微跌。 周三美债整体回吐前一天的涨幅， 主要是在欧洲时间随欧洲核心债券 的下跌，整体曲线走陡，长端下跌 较多；美元债方面，昨天发行的长 和表现不佳，较开盘下行了约 7 个 基点，科技和国企板块基本没有变 动，中资银行债出现了一些卖盘， 香港和韩国银行则有买入。 欧 美 市 场 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------|-----------------|----------------|----------------|---------------|-------------------------------------|--------------------------------------| | | 欧美主要指数 | | | | | 主要指数 | | 指数 | 收盘点位 | 1 日涨跌 (%) | | 140 | ...