面对市场对债券供应过剩的担忧以及超长期国债收益率创历史新高的压力，日本政府计划大幅削减超长 期国债发行规模，以缓解债券市场紧张情绪。 12月24日，据路透报道，两名政府消息人士透露，日本下一财年新发超长期政府债券规模可能降至约17 万亿日元（1090亿美元），为17年来最低水平。同时，财务省维持10年期国债发行量不变。 这一举措凸显了政府对近期债券收益率持续上升的敏感态度。市场普遍预期，日本首相高市早苗提出的 大规模支出计划及扩张性财政政策将引发巨额政府债券发行，从而进一步推高收益率。 此次削减计划预计将直接影响债券市场的供需结构，为投资者提供一定的缓冲空间。与此同时，该举措 也反映出政府在推动经济刺激与遏制债务成本之间所面临的艰难权衡。 知情人士还表示，财务省还将保持2年期日本政府债券每月2.8万亿日元、5年期债券每月2.5万亿日元的 发行额不变。 超长期国债发行全面收缩 中短期国债发行维持不变 财务省计划对超长期国债发行进行全面削减。据知情人士透露，财务省正考虑在下一财年将20年期、30 年期及40年期日本国债的月度发行额各削减1000亿日元。 此举将使超长期国债总发行规模大幅下降。今年6月，财务省已被迫 ...

近期，招银国际发布《中美宏观经济与大类资产配置》报告，深入剖析了2025年中美两国的经济走势、政策方向及大类资产配置建议。 在美国方面，经济呈现短期"滞胀"态势。 2025年GDP增速预计将从2024年的2.8%放缓至1.7%，通胀压力短期内可能反弹，PCE通胀率预计在三季度升至2.8%、四季度达2.9%。 房地产市场延续滞涨格局，高利率环境下购房能力与销量均处于历史低位，大量房主因低利率房贷"锁定"而不愿换房，导致库存紧张。 与此同时，中低收入家庭财务压力加大，消费贷款拖欠率升至历史高位。 企业盈利增速也出现下调，尤其是对贸易战和经济周期敏感的工业、能源、原材料等行业。 在此背景下，美联储预计将在2025年9月至12月降息两次，2026年再降息两次，最终政策利率或降至3.25%-3.5%区间。 然而，由于白宫可能加强对美联储的影响，市场通胀预期不稳，叠加政府债务攀升，国债收益率或仍将居高不下。 美股估值面临压力，经济痛苦指数（通胀+失业）可能反弹，压制股市表现。 短期建议关注医疗、必选消费、通讯服务、材料和工业等板块。 整体来看，美股处于牛市后期，适合长期定投。 大类资产配置上，建议超配大宗商品，标配股票与 ...

英国预算责任办公室(OBR)：英国将主要财政规则缓冲额度提高至220亿英镑，市场预估150亿英镑。英 国将所得税起征点冻结期限延长至2030-31年度。英国将把股息税率提高2%。从2025-2026财年到2029- 2030财年，英国将额外借款572亿英镑。预计政府在2025-2026年将借款1383亿英镑，此前预计1177亿英 镑。预计政府在2026-2027年将借款1121亿英镑，此前预计972亿英镑。 ...

Economic Overview - The economic data released in August 2025 indicates a significant fluctuation in China's economy, with many key indicators showing weak growth [1] - Various sectors, including manufacturing, consumer spending, and real estate investment, are facing challenges, leading to a prolonged downward trend [3] Manufacturing Sector - The growth rate of industrial enterprises' added value slowed to 5.2%, which is considered unimpressive [3] - Manufacturing investment has weakened due to conservative approaches following recent "anti-involution" policies aimed at industrial transformation [9] Consumer Spending - Social retail sales increased by only 3.4%, reflecting a decline in consumer enthusiasm and business activity [3][4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a downward trend, indicating cautious behavior among buyers and sellers [4] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment has significantly declined, with both development investment and transaction volumes dropping for several months [5][11] - The government's previous bond issuance efforts have not been sufficient to maintain market confidence, leading to increased liquidity pressure in the second half of the year [11] Government Response - The government recognizes the need for substantial adjustments, including increasing fiscal support and lowering loan thresholds to stimulate demand [12] - There is a call for timely and decisive incremental policies to restore confidence and activate capital flow in the economy [13] Financial Environment - External trade friction has negatively impacted domestic credit demand, with both enterprises and individuals showing reduced willingness to take loans [9] - The government is encouraged to relax the use of special bonds to address corporate debt issues and alleviate market liquidity pressure [14]

Legislative Progress - The "Beautiful Act" has passed the Senate with a narrow margin of 51 to 50, entering the final legislative phase [1][13] - The bill will undergo review in the House of Representatives, with potential for further amendments [1][13] - Three possible timelines for final passage are outlined: before July 4, mid-July, or late July to August [2][13] Content Adjustments - The Senate version of the bill increases the deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion over the next decade, which is $550 billion more than the House version [2][14] - Corporate tax cuts are expanded while personal tax cuts are reduced, with a focus on benefiting high-income earners [2][14] - Significant cuts to healthcare and welfare spending are proposed, including an increase in medical assistance cuts from $800 billion to $930 billion [3][14] Economic Impact - The "Beautiful Act" is expected to moderately boost the U.S. economy, potentially increasing annual real GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points from 2025 to 2027 [4][15] - The lowest 20% of income households may see a 2.9% decrease in income, while the highest 20% could experience a 1.9% increase due to tax cuts [5][15] - Capital-intensive industries, such as manufacturing and defense, are likely to benefit, while the renewable energy sector may face challenges due to reduced tax incentives [5][15]