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工业消费双疲软,透视8月经济数据,财政政策该背锅?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 10:49
2025年8月的经济数据一出来,不少人都皱起了眉头。国家统计局在9月中旬公布的这组数据,直接表现 出中国经济又经历了一次不小的波动,很多主要指标都显示出增长乏力。 无论是工厂的生产、普通人的消费,还是投资楼市,几乎每个领域都遇到了点麻烦,谁也没想到回落趋 势会连着好几个月,大家心里都明白背后问题可不简单。 这些数字背后其实都有逻辑。最先能感受到的压力是财政的发力变弱了,国家虽然还在投钱,可真正用 在提振内需上的部分却没跟上节奏。 先看看工厂干得咋样吧。8月工业企业增加值增长速度比前几个月慢了下来,5.2%的增幅说实话并不抢 眼。再说消费,人们买东西的热情降了点,商店的生意没有想象中那么火,社会消费品零售额只涨了 3.4%,已经比7月又低了一些。 价格方面也没怎么动,CPI数据有点往下掉,这也能看出来市场里买家和卖家都挺谨慎的。 投资这里也遇到难题,不管是修路盖楼,还是企业扩张,动手的劲头明显不足。尤其是房地产投资继续 探底,8月份又大幅下滑,买房卖房的热度难以为继,这让不少人观望情绪更浓了。 以前靠大额财政支撑,大家的钱袋子鼓了,敢买也敢投。现在,财政这块的动力边际上减退,商家生 产、居民花钱都比以前犹豫多了 ...
如何看待参议院通过《美丽大法案》?(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-07-03 15:22
Legislative Progress - The "Beautiful Act" has passed the Senate with a narrow margin of 51 to 50, entering the final legislative phase [1][13] - The bill will undergo review in the House of Representatives, with potential for further amendments [1][13] - Three possible timelines for final passage are outlined: before July 4, mid-July, or late July to August [2][13] Content Adjustments - The Senate version of the bill increases the deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion over the next decade, which is $550 billion more than the House version [2][14] - Corporate tax cuts are expanded while personal tax cuts are reduced, with a focus on benefiting high-income earners [2][14] - Significant cuts to healthcare and welfare spending are proposed, including an increase in medical assistance cuts from $800 billion to $930 billion [3][14] Economic Impact - The "Beautiful Act" is expected to moderately boost the U.S. economy, potentially increasing annual real GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points from 2025 to 2027 [4][15] - The lowest 20% of income households may see a 2.9% decrease in income, while the highest 20% could experience a 1.9% increase due to tax cuts [5][15] - Capital-intensive industries, such as manufacturing and defense, are likely to benefit, while the renewable energy sector may face challenges due to reduced tax incentives [5][15]