英国预算责任办公室(OBR)：英国将主要财政规则缓冲额度提高至220亿英镑，市场预估150亿英镑。英 国将所得税起征点冻结期限延长至2030-31年度。英国将把股息税率提高2%。从2025-2026财年到2029- 2030财年，英国将额外借款572亿英镑。预计政府在2025-2026年将借款1383亿英镑，此前预计1177亿英 镑。预计政府在2026-2027年将借款1121亿英镑，此前预计972亿英镑。 ...

Economic Overview - The economic data released in August 2025 indicates a significant fluctuation in China's economy, with many key indicators showing weak growth [1] - Various sectors, including manufacturing, consumer spending, and real estate investment, are facing challenges, leading to a prolonged downward trend [3] Manufacturing Sector - The growth rate of industrial enterprises' added value slowed to 5.2%, which is considered unimpressive [3] - Manufacturing investment has weakened due to conservative approaches following recent "anti-involution" policies aimed at industrial transformation [9] Consumer Spending - Social retail sales increased by only 3.4%, reflecting a decline in consumer enthusiasm and business activity [3][4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a downward trend, indicating cautious behavior among buyers and sellers [4] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment has significantly declined, with both development investment and transaction volumes dropping for several months [5][11] - The government's previous bond issuance efforts have not been sufficient to maintain market confidence, leading to increased liquidity pressure in the second half of the year [11] Government Response - The government recognizes the need for substantial adjustments, including increasing fiscal support and lowering loan thresholds to stimulate demand [12] - There is a call for timely and decisive incremental policies to restore confidence and activate capital flow in the economy [13] Financial Environment - External trade friction has negatively impacted domestic credit demand, with both enterprises and individuals showing reduced willingness to take loans [9] - The government is encouraged to relax the use of special bonds to address corporate debt issues and alleviate market liquidity pressure [14]

Legislative Progress - The "Beautiful Act" has passed the Senate with a narrow margin of 51 to 50, entering the final legislative phase [1][13] - The bill will undergo review in the House of Representatives, with potential for further amendments [1][13] - Three possible timelines for final passage are outlined: before July 4, mid-July, or late July to August [2][13] Content Adjustments - The Senate version of the bill increases the deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion over the next decade, which is $550 billion more than the House version [2][14] - Corporate tax cuts are expanded while personal tax cuts are reduced, with a focus on benefiting high-income earners [2][14] - Significant cuts to healthcare and welfare spending are proposed, including an increase in medical assistance cuts from $800 billion to $930 billion [3][14] Economic Impact - The "Beautiful Act" is expected to moderately boost the U.S. economy, potentially increasing annual real GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points from 2025 to 2027 [4][15] - The lowest 20% of income households may see a 2.9% decrease in income, while the highest 20% could experience a 1.9% increase due to tax cuts [5][15] - Capital-intensive industries, such as manufacturing and defense, are likely to benefit, while the renewable energy sector may face challenges due to reduced tax incentives [5][15]