东吴证券研究所提醒您本次电话会议即面向机构投资者或受邀客户第三方专家发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或所表述的意见均不构成对具体证券在具体价位具体时点具体市场表现的判断或投资建议未经合法授权严禁录音转发及相关解读涉嫌违反上述情形的 我们将保留追究法律责任的权利感谢您给予的理解和配合谢谢 各位领导大家晚上好我是东吴故说的陈伯明非常感谢大家在百忙之中抽出时间来参加我们这个转角的系列会议转角这个系列我们主要就是每周会花大概半个小时左右的一个时间跟各位领导分享一下我们这边关于转债的一个策略的变化结合当周发生的一些重点的催化事件谈一谈我们的看法 本周我们的选题呢叫做新国九条对转债策略有何影响这个顾名思义就是等于上周一个包括这两天吧对转债其实市场造成比较大冲击的就是上周五这个国务院这个也是算是时隔十年吧再次出台这个资本市场主要性文件 针对这个文件本身我这边不做这个具体的解读了主要就是谈谈这个关于对转债投资转债配置策略上到底目前我能想到的大概三点的这个变化吧第一点呢就是 应该说可以观察到这一季度其实24年一季度也体现出来了就是这个供给在这个转债的供给好像在进一步的放缓同时呢这个新陈代谢就是我们所谓退市或者说转股退市的转债整 ...

战略看好央国企车企估值系统性重塑240418东吴_原文 2024年04月18日 19:52 发言人1 00:00 东吴证券研究所提醒您，本次电话会议仅面向机构投资者或受邀客户、第三方专家发言内容仅代表其个 人观点，所有信息或所表述的意见均不构成对具体证券在具体价位、具体时点、具体市场表现的判断或 投资建议。未经合法授权严禁录音转发及相关解读，涉嫌违反上述情形的，我们将保留追究法律责任的 权利。感谢您给予的理解和配合，谢谢。 发言人2 00:38 各位领导晚上好，我是动物汽车梦露。今晚我们来我来汇报一下我们我们组最新对于央国企车企的一个 深度报告。在正式汇报内容之前，首先我先汇报一下核心结论。我们我们如果去回看过去这三年的 话，其实可以发现，央国企车企其实他们的市占率持续在下滑，主要原因其实还是没有跟上这一轮行业 电动化的大逻辑，然后也没有去引领像电动化这个技术创新，然后包括合资品牌在内的市占率以及盈利 能力方面也是受影响比较大的。那站在现在这个维度，就是今年的维度来看，我们认为比亚迪这一波比 较猛烈的降价，使得合资的市占率再一次快速下降之后，继续往下的空间也比较有限。同时我们也看到 央国企车企他们在自主品牌新 ...

Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 2,766.6 billion yen in FY2023, with a growth rate of 20.2%, and is expected to reach 3,818.7 billion yen by FY2026, reflecting a steady decline in growth rates to 10.8% [1][3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 296.2 billion yen in FY2023, increasing to 409.1 billion yen by FY2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.4% in FY2023 and 9.1% in FY2026 [1][3] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 964.5 yen in FY2023 to 1,332.0 yen in FY2026, with the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 47.7 to 34.5 over the same period [1][3] Revenue Breakdown - For FY2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.60 trillion yen, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, aligning closely with the expected 1.64 trillion yen [14] - Revenue from the Japanese Uniqlo segment decreased by 2%, while overseas Uniqlo revenue grew by 17%, indicating a shift in market dynamics [14] - The Greater China region's Uniqlo revenue increased by 12.3% in FY2024 H1, but concerns remain regarding the sustainability of single-store revenue growth [14] Profitability Analysis - The operating profit for FY2024 H1 was reported at 257.1 billion yen, which was below expectations due to changes in bonus recognition and rising labor costs [14] - The gross profit margin improved to 52.9%, with a notable increase in the Japanese Uniqlo segment's margin to 49.3% [14] - The company anticipates a continued increase in operating profit, with projections of 3,419 billion yen for FY2024, 3,750 billion yen for FY2025, and 4,091 billion yen for FY2026 [14] Market Outlook - The European Uniqlo segment is expected to see a CAGR of approximately 37% from FY2023 to FY2027, with FY2024 revenue projected at 250 billion yen, a 30% increase [14] - The company expresses confidence in the growth potential of its overseas markets, particularly in North America and Europe, where single-store revenue is expected to continue rising [14] - The overall market sentiment remains neutral, with a target price set at 47,300 yen, reflecting a cautious but optimistic outlook for the company's performance [14]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|------------------------------|---------|---------|---------| | 盈利预测与估值 | FY2023A | FY2024E | FY2025E | FY2026E | | 营业总收入（十亿日元） | 2,766.6 | 3,090.0 | 3,445.6 | 3,818.7 | | 同比 | 20.2% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 10.8% | | 归母净利润（十亿日元） | 296.2 | 341.9 | 375.0 | 409.1 | | 同比 | 8.4% | 15.4% | 9.7% | 9.1% | | 每股收益 - 最新股本摊薄 （日元 / 股） | 964.5 | 1113.3 | 1220.9 | 1332.0 | | P/E ( 现价 & 最新股本摊薄 ) | 48.2 | 41.7 | 38.1 | 34.9 | | 数据来源： Wind | ，公司公告，东吴证券（香港） | ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·航空 三 大航 2023 年年报点评 [三Tabl大e_Ma航in] 均大幅减亏，2024 年国内市场供需格 [Table_Au2th0o2r4] 年 04月 08日 局有望改善 分析师 买入（维持） 欧阳诗睿 (852) 3982 3217 ouyangshirui@dwzq.com.hk 投资要点 [行Ta业b走le_势Pi cQuote] ◼ 三大航同比均实现大幅减亏：2023年国航/南航/东航归母净亏损分别为 10.5/42.1/81.7亿元，分别同比减亏375/285/292亿元，均符合业绩预告 指引。我们认为国航减亏幅度较大主要系其持股 30%的国泰航空 2023 年贡献收益24亿元；而南航及东航减亏幅度偏弱主要系：1）2023年， 南航对四川航空的战略投资按权益法确认净亏损约23亿元；2）东航航 距偏短，短航线受到高铁的冲击更大，成本管控难度更高；且 2023 年 东航市占率较高的日韩航线恢复偏弱。 ◼ 三大航毛利率均低于 2019 年水平。2023 年国航/南航/东航毛利率分别 为5.0%/7.7%/1.1%，分别较2019年低11.8pct/4.4pct/10.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its strategic initiatives and market positioning [67]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on IP development as a core strategy, aiming to create a comprehensive ecosystem that integrates movies, merchandise, and commercial real estate [4][43]. - The report highlights the importance of AI technology in enhancing IP development and monetization, suggesting that AI can reduce costs and improve productivity in the creative process [35][60]. - The company has made significant strides in integrating its classic IP into various media formats, including animation and gaming, which is expected to drive future revenue growth [11][45]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 368 million in 2022 to 791 million in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 115% [2]. - The revenue breakdown shows that film screening remains the largest segment, contributing 70% of total revenue in 2023, with a projected growth rate of 110% [2][3]. - The company anticipates a continued upward trend in revenue, with projections reaching 2,145 million by 2026, maintaining a growth rate of around 40% [2]. IP Development Strategy - The company has established a dedicated platform, "Shangyingyuan," for IP development, which includes a portfolio of 60 IPs across various categories, enhancing its market presence [39][49]. - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of renewing old IPs and cultivating new ones through a matrix development approach, which is expected to penetrate daily life and consumer culture [3][5]. - The integration of classic animation IPs into theme parks and interactive experiences is planned, with the "Shangmei Ying Dalu" project set to launch in 2024 [42]. Market Positioning - The company is positioned as a leader in the Shanghai cinema market, benefiting from the recovery of the film industry and a strategic focus on "Cinema + IP + AI" initiatives [67][100]. - The report notes that the company is actively expanding its cinema network, with a focus on both high-end and budget cinemas across major cities and smaller markets [102][104]. - The company is leveraging its historical IP assets to create a competitive advantage, with a focus on storytelling and emotional engagement to attract audiences [49][49].

Investment Rating - Buy (首次) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Wanda Film, as a leading cinema chain, is poised for a revaluation of its core value due to the post-pandemic recovery and the introduction of AI technology in the film industry [1] - The company's cinema business provides a profit cushion, with controllable downside risks and significant upside potential [1] - The entry of Ruyi Investment as a major shareholder and the change in management are expected to bring new opportunities for the company's development [1] Domestic Cinema Business Review - Wanda Film's domestic cinema business has shown resilience and market share growth despite industry challenges [2] - The company's market share in box office revenue increased from 14% in 2019 to 17% in 2022, even as the industry faced significant headwinds during the pandemic [2] - The company's profitability was impacted during the pandemic, but it managed to maintain and even increase its market share through strategic measures such as closing underperforming cinemas and focusing on high-quality locations [2] Market Share and Profit Potential - The report estimates that Wanda Film's domestic cinema business has a potential post-tax profit of up to 3 billion yuan, driven by the recovery of the film industry and the company's competitive advantages [2] - The company's overseas cinema business is expected to contribute 250-300 million yuan in annual net profit, providing a stable cash flow and profit cushion [2] Ruyi Investment and AI Opportunities - The entry of Ruyi Investment, led by Ke Liming, is expected to enhance Wanda Film's film production capabilities and bring new growth opportunities [2] - AI technology is seen as a potential game-changer for the film industry, with the ability to enrich mid-tier film production and drive industry demand growth [2] - Wanda Film, as a leading cinema chain and film producer, is well-positioned to benefit from these technological advancements [2] Financial Projections and Valuation - The report forecasts that Wanda Film's revenue will grow from 14.35 billion yuan in 2023 to 18.13 billion yuan in 2025, with net profit increasing from 1.14 billion yuan to 1.85 billion yuan over the same period [3] - The company's EV/EBITDA valuation for 2024 is estimated at 17x, which is between the industry average and the valuation of leading US cinema chains, suggesting a target market capitalization of 45.7 billion yuan [3] Historical Performance and Industry Trends - Wanda Film's historical performance reflects the broader trends in the domestic cinema industry, with periods of rapid growth, intense competition, and pandemic-induced challenges [2] - The company has consistently maintained a leading position in the industry, with a focus on high-quality expansion and operational efficiency [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented various strategic initiatives, including the introduction of franchise operations, to maintain its market leadership and improve profitability [2] - Wanda Film's focus on high-quality locations and strategic closures of underperforming cinemas has helped it navigate the challenges posed by the pandemic [2] Future Outlook - The report is optimistic about Wanda Film's future, citing the potential for market share growth, profit expansion, and the positive impact of new technologies and strategic partnerships [2][3] - The company's ability to leverage its strong market position, operational efficiency, and new opportunities in film production and AI technology is expected to drive future growth [2][3]

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·电子 电子行业深度报告 卫星通信高速发展，Starlink 产业链保持领 2024 年 03月 19日 先 证券分析师 马天翼 增持（维持） 执业证书：S0600522090001 maty@dwzq.com.cn [ 投TT aa 资b bl 要e e_ 点T Sa g m] [ l _ u mary] 证券分析师 周高鼎 执业证书：S0600523030003 ◼ 短期通信需求与长期国防需要驱动卫星市场发展：卫星通信是以卫星作 zhougd@dwzq.com.cn 为中继实现地球上的无线电通信站间的通信。相比高轨卫星，低轨卫星 具有时延低和系统覆盖率高等优势，成为了最有应用前景的卫星通信技 行业走势 术之一。由于国外基站数量较少，基站覆盖率不足，许多偏远地区的通 信需求未能得到满足，这部分通信需求成为了国外卫星通信市场发展的 电子 沪深300 短期驱动力。而长期来看，由于低轨卫星资源有限，具有“先占先得” 9% 的特性，加上各国对国防安全的需要，卫星网络建设和自主可控将具有 5% 1% 必要性。据 QYResearch 研究报告显示，2021 年我国卫星互联网行业市 -3% - ...

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·电子 电子行业深度报告 AI PC 元年开启，换机潮推动产业链景气度 2024 年 03月 19日 提升 证券分析师 马天翼 增持（维持） 执业证书：S0600522090001 maty@dwzq.com.cn [ 投TT aa 资b bl 要e e_ 点T Sa g m] [ l _ u mary] 证券分析师 鲍娴颖 执业证书：S0600521080008 ◼ 全球 PC 出货量 2023Q4同比降幅缩窄至 0.1%，2024年全年预计增长 baoxy@dwzq.com.cn 8%：23Q2-Q3 全球 PC 出货量均环比回升，2023 年全球 PC 出货量同 比降幅逐季度缩窄，23Q4同比降幅缩窄至0.1%。根据IDC数据，全球 行业走势 PC出货量22Q4环比下行9%，23Q1环比下行15%；23Q2全球PC出 货量环比回升8%，同比降幅收窄至14%，23Q3全球PC出货量环比回 电子 沪深300 升11%，同比降幅进一步收窄到8%。至23Q4全球PC出货量6170万 9% 台，同比下滑0.1%，PC行业逐步走出下行周期，行业拐点出现。根据 5% 1% Canalys 预 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Ziel Home Furnishing Technology, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the market in the next six months [4][41]. Core Insights - Ziel is positioned as a leading cross-border e-commerce platform in the home furnishing sector, primarily targeting developed markets in Europe and America. The company has established three major brands: SONGMICS, VASAGLE, and FEANDREA, which account for significant portions of its revenue [5][14]. - The cross-border e-commerce market is experiencing robust growth, with China's export scale reaching RMB 6.6 trillion in 2022 and a projected CAGR of 16.4% from 2022 to 2025. This trend is expected to favor domestic consumer goods brands leveraging supply chain advantages [5][14]. - Ziel's competitive advantages include brand recognition, a well-established overseas logistics system, and strong supply chain management capabilities. The company has over 300,000 square meters of self-owned overseas warehouses, enhancing its logistics efficiency [5][13][32]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Ziel are as follows: RMB 6,110 million in 2023, RMB 7,385 million in 2024, and RMB 8,653 million in 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 21%, and 17% respectively [4][8]. - Net profit is expected to reach RMB 408 million in 2023, RMB 511 million in 2024, and RMB 607 million in 2025, with growth rates of 63%, 25%, and 19% respectively [4][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast is RMB 1.02 for 2023, RMB 1.27 for 2024, and RMB 1.51 for 2025, with a decreasing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 22.81 in 2023 to 15.41 in 2025 [4][8]. Market Position and Strategy - Ziel's products are primarily sold through online platforms like Amazon, with significant revenue contributions from Europe and the United States, accounting for 56% and 41% of total revenue in 2022 [5][14]. - The company focuses on high-margin segments of the market, emphasizing brand, design, and supply chain management, which are critical barriers to entry in the home furnishing e-commerce space [24][25]. - Ziel's logistics capabilities, including a self-built overseas logistics system, provide a competitive edge by reducing costs and improving delivery times compared to traditional fulfillment methods [5][13][32].