海外公司跟踪报告 | 非必需性消费 证券研究报告 分析师：宋健 S0190518010002 BMV912 songjian@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：严宁馨 | 报告日期 | 2025 年 02 月 17 日 | | --- | --- | | 公司评级 | 增持（维持） | 基础数据 | 2 月 14 日收盘价（美元） | 308.55 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（亿美元） | 2211 | | 总股本（亿股） | 7.17 | 来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 相关研究 【兴证海外社服】麦当劳 (MCD.N)2024Q3 业绩点评：Q3 美国同 店销售同比增速转正-2024.11.15 【兴证海外社服】麦当劳 (MCD.N)2024Q2 业绩点评：Q2 业绩低 于预期，低价套餐提振销售-2024.08.06 S0190521010001 请注意: 严宁馨并非香港证券及期货事务 监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从 事受监管的活动。 yanningxin@xyzq.com.cn 麦当劳(MCD.N) 2024Q4 同店表现改善明显，全球同店销售同比转正 投资要点： 请阅读 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for stocks related to the AI infrastructure and PCB sectors, indicating a potential upside greater than 15% compared to relevant market indices [43]. Core Insights - Deepseek is expected to drive a surge in application-side AI demand, leading to a significant increase in computational power requirements. The model has achieved performance comparable to top global models at a very low training cost, which raises concerns about future computational needs [3][11]. - The demand for customized ASICs is strong, confirming the sustainability of AI's growth. Broadcom anticipates that the demand for ASICs and networks from three clients will reach between $60 billion and $90 billion by 2027, with a projected CAGR of 45% from 2023 to 2028 [3][25]. - The design of AI servers is undergoing iterative upgrades, which is expected to enhance the value of PCBs. The complexity of deploying new architectures like the GB200 has led to challenges in assembly yield and thermal management, necessitating design optimizations in future models [3][28]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Deepseek and AI Demand - Deepseek has significantly reduced pre-training costs, but the demand for inference power is expected to explode as applications become more widespread. The total training cost for Deepseek-V3 is estimated at $5.576 million, with operational costs potentially exceeding $944 million [11][12][13]. - The inference cost per million output tokens for Deepseek is $0.28, which is substantially lower than competitors, but the overall cost for serving billions of users remains high [15][16][17]. - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are increasing their capital expenditures significantly, with Google projecting $75 billion for 2025, a 43% increase year-over-year [19][22]. Section 2: ASIC Demand and Market Growth - ASICs are expected to see explosive growth, with Broadcom predicting a demand of $60 billion to $90 billion by 2027 from three clients. Marvell also anticipates strong growth in AI inference accelerators [25][26]. - The CAGR for the ASIC market from 2023 to 2028 is projected to be 45%, indicating robust growth potential in this segment [27]. Section 3: AI Server Design and PCB Value - The deployment of the GB200 architecture has introduced complexities that affect thermal management and assembly yield. Overheating issues have been reported, leading to delivery delays [28][32][33]. - Future designs may adopt orthogonal architectures to improve data transmission speeds and reduce interconnect distances, with PTFE materials being considered for high-performance applications [36][37][38].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that pig prices are maintaining a weak trend, while chick prices continue to decline [2] - The report provides a detailed analysis of various agricultural and livestock prices, indicating significant fluctuations in the market [22] Market Overview - The report covers the market performance from February 10 to February 14, 2025, with various indices showing slight changes [6][12] - Specific stock performances include: - Wens Foodstuff Group: -0.88% - New Hope Liuhe: +3.53% - Zhengbang Technology: +1.65% [12] Price Trends - Livestock prices: - Average price for pigs: 14.61 CNY/kg, down 2.14% [22] - Average price for chicks: 2.92 CNY, down 12.31% [22] - Grain prices: - Domestic corn price: 0.3 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease [21] - Domestic wheat price: 3 CNY/ton, stable [21] Valuation Levels - The report mentions TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) valuation metrics for the industry, with a TTM of 22.38 for the index [15] Important Announcements - The report includes significant announcements regarding price changes and market conditions for various agricultural products, indicating a trend of price reductions across several categories [18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the smartphone shipments of the company are expected to reach a historical high of 168.5 million units in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 15.4%, significantly surpassing the industry growth rate of 6.4% [3][7] - The company is focusing on high-end strategies and AI smartphone trends, which are anticipated to be crucial for long-term development [3][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's ecosystem strategy, which integrates hardware and software, enhancing user engagement and creating a competitive edge [4][6] Summary by Sections Xiaomi Smartphone: Business Model Innovation to Technological Accumulation - The company has adopted a differentiated pricing strategy, focusing on low hardware margins while monetizing through internet services [4] - The smartphone business is entering a stable and sustainable growth phase, with a focus on high-end market penetration [6] Smartphone Performance and Market Outlook - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve a global market share of 13.6%, with flagship models performing well and ASP increasing by 10.5% [3][7] - The high-end smartphone sales are expected to grow by 43% year-on-year, with a target of increasing sales by 10 million units every 3-5 years [11][17] AI Smartphone Strategy - The company launched its AI smartphone strategy with the introduction of the Hyper OS 2 and the Super Xiao Ai assistant, which offers various AI functionalities [18][21] - The AI smartphone initiative is supported by a robust ecosystem that leverages perception data and IoT capabilities, providing a competitive advantage [22][27] Investment in Research and Development - The company plans to increase its R&D investment to 30 billion yuan in 2025, a 25% increase from 2024, to enhance its AI capabilities [31] - The establishment of a GPU cluster for AI model training is expected to significantly boost the company's technological capabilities [31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 2.63% compared to the index's 1.19% [3][5] - AI is expected to empower the medical field, particularly in gene testing, with companies like Tempus leading the way in data analysis and AI optimization for cancer diagnosis and treatment [15][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality data in the AI medical field, which is a key competitive advantage [17] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Pharmaceutical Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector's performance was characterized by a 2.63% increase, while the CSI 300 index rose by 1.19% during the week of February 10-14, 2025 [3][5] - Year-to-date, the pharmaceutical sector has seen a decline of 11.13%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 25.93 percentage points [5] 2. Industry Events/Policy Overview - The report highlights the announcement of 274 exemplary projects in the 5G+ healthcare application pilot program, which aims to promote the large-scale development of 5G healthcare applications [13] 3. Industry Investment Strategy - The report suggests prioritizing investments in companies with quality data access and a broad user base, particularly in imaging, gene testing, pathology, robotics, and health management sectors [18] - It notes that the pharmaceutical industry is currently at a historical low, presenting investment opportunities in 2025, especially in innovative drugs and medical devices [19][20] 4. Recommended Stocks - Key recommended stocks include: - **Hengrui Medicine**: Expected to see growth from innovative drugs and international expansion [29] - **Baiyue Pharmaceutical**: Leading in innovative drug development with strong sales growth [28] - **Wuxi AppTec**: A global leader in integrated CXO services with strong order growth [31] - **Aibo Medical**: High growth potential in the ophthalmic device sector [32] 5. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in the pharmaceutical sector in 2025, driven by improved fundamentals and a favorable macroeconomic environment [20][21] - It highlights the potential for innovative drugs and medical devices to benefit from policy support and internationalization efforts [21][24]

宏观经济研究 | 宏观经济研究 证券研究报告 报告日期 2025 年 02 月 17 日 分析师：段超 S0190516070004 duanchao@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：卓泓 S0190519070002 zhuohong@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：金淳 S0190524090001 jinchun@xyzq.com.cn 相关研究 【兴证宏观】20250209-再论《眼前的 "坎儿"和不远的"风景"》——兴证宏 观思考 第四期-2025.02.09 20250209-【兴证宏观】海外周报第 53 期：预期分化：日元走强，美元回落， 欧英放鸽-2025.02.09 【兴证宏观】长风破浪：从价值链看美 国关税影响——兴证宏观价值链研究系 列四-20250208-2025.02.08 俄乌变局，欧洲变局？ 投资要点： 开年以来，欧洲股市持续走强，上周俄乌谈判迎来转机进一步提振市场情绪。但近期公 布的欧元区 2024Q4 实际 GDP 仅环比增长 0.1%，制造业 PMI 也仍处萎缩区间。如何 理解欧洲经济和股市的背离？俄乌变局之后会有哪些变化？ 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/13 ⚫ 岁末 ...

行业周报 | 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 | 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 02 | 17 | 相关研究 农林牧渔 猪价维持弱势运行，鸡苗价格持续走低 投资要点： S0190522080004 jiyuze@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：曹心蕊 S0190521050002 caoxinrui@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：潘江滢 S0190524060001 panjiangying@xyzq.com.cn 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/16 -2025.02.09 -2025.01.19 -2025.01.06 分析师：纪宇泽 目录 | 一、 行情回顾…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 4 | | --- | | ( 一 ) 行业行情 | | ( 二 ) 个股行情 - | | ( 三 ) | | （ 四 ） 本周重要公告 | | （五） 畜禽价格 …………… ...

行业评级 推荐（维持） 行业周报 | 医药生物 证券研究报告 报告日期 2025 年 02 月 17 日 相关研究 【兴证医药】AI 有望赋能医疗领域，继 续看好创新药+创新药产业链——医药行 业周报（2025.2.3-2025.2.7）- 2025.02.11 【兴证医药】医药板块持仓降至历史低 位、继续看好创新药+创新药产业链—— 兴证医药 2025 年 2 月投资月报- 2025.02.05 【兴证医药】医保丙类目录推进中，有 望进一步提升创新药可及性——医药行 业周报（2025.1.13-2025.1.17）- 2025.01.20 分析师：孙媛媛 S0190515090001 sunyuanyuan@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：黄翰漾 S0190519020002 huanghanyang@xyzq.com.cn | 年 2 | 表 1、2025 年 2 | 月 10 | 日-2025 | | 月 14 | | 日医药板块个股涨幅前 5 | 和跌幅前 5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | ...

S0190519080002 BPL829 hongjiajun@xyzq.com.cn 海外行业跟踪报告 | 信息技术 证券研究报告 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 02 月 17 日 相关研究 S0190523060002 请注意: 翁嘉源并非香港证券及期货事务 监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从 事受监管的活动。 wengjiayuan@xyzq.com.cn xufenglong@xyzq.com.cn 小米手机：AI 手机二次点火 投资要点： 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/11 分析师：洪嘉骏 分析师：翁嘉源 小米手机：2024 年出货增速历史次高，2025 年有望高端化。公司智能手机在 2024 年 出货量为历史次高的 1.685 亿部，同比增速 15.4%，远超行业增速 6.4%，全球市场份 额增长至 13.6%（YoY +1.1pcts），受益于旗舰新机发布，2024 年 Q3 公司智能手机 ASP 同比增长 10.5%。展望 2025 年，公司手机业务有望受益于国家补贴政策、高端 化战略以及 AI 手机趋势，我们认为 AI 趋势对长期发展尤为关键，看好公司在感知数 据、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Insights - The company's same-store sales decline has narrowed, and store costs continue to optimize. The core operating profit for Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, with guidance for 2025 indicating that the core operating profit margin will remain at least flat or show positive year-on-year growth. The company maintains a robust shareholder return budget, providing a safety net for dividends [4]. - The company plans to open 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with a total of 16,395 stores by the end of 2024, including 11,648 KFC and 3,724 Pizza Hut locations [5][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of $2.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was $115 million, up 18% year-on-year, and core operating profit was $150 million, up 35% year-on-year [4]. - The company expects revenues of $11.84 billion, $12.71 billion, and $13.63 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 4.7%, 7.4%, and 7.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be $976 million, $1.06 billion, and $1.14 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 7.1%, 8.2%, and 7.8% [6][4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be $2.58, $2.87, and $3.18 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6]. Shareholder Returns - The company has maintained strong dividend and buyback efforts, with a total shareholder return of $1.5 billion for the year and a 50% increase in quarterly dividends to $0.24 per share for Q4 2024, which will continue into 2025 [4]. - The total shareholder return plan for 2025 and 2026 remains at $3 billion, representing 8.3% of the market capitalization of HKD 1,404 billion [4]. Store Performance - The operating profit margins for KFC and Pizza Hut in Q4 2024 were 13.3% and 9.3%, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 1.3 and 2.0 percentage points [4]. - Same-store sales for KFC declined by 1% in Q4 2024, while Pizza Hut's same-store sales declined by 2%. However, transaction volumes increased by 3% and 9% for KFC and Pizza Hut, respectively [4].