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公铁路、港口、大宗供应链行业2025年度策略报告:重视商业模式新生的红利板块
兴业证券· 2024-12-16 07:33
⚫ 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 #industryId# 交通运输 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...
美容护理2025年度策略:基本面企稳,龙头公司彰显风采
兴业证券· 2024-12-16 07:32
行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 #industryId# 美容护理 # 行 业 投 资 策 略 报 告 投资要点 # sum个m护ary:#竞争格局优于化妆品,线上渠道高速增长为个护板块的崛起提供机遇、外资出 让份额,头部品牌市占率提升空间较大。2022 年 11 月-2023 年 10 月,线下渠道增速 放缓,以抖音为代表的内容电商销售额高速增长,强势崛起,带动日化行业线上市场 增长 11.3%,同时流量费用不断下降,市场准入门槛降低。从竞争格局看,外资品牌 的市场份额逐渐降低,份额出让&头部品牌市占率空间大,国货品牌各自采取不同的 发展策略,均紧抓线上渠道红利,实现份额提升。登康口腔通过推高卖高的策略,实 施品类拓展与产品升级,巩固了其在成人牙膏市场的优势地位;而润本股份专注于母 婴+驱蚊,主打性价比,驱蚊板块推出二代产品,全面替代一代产品,同时公司具备 卓越的运营效率,盈利能力位于行业前列。推荐润本股份、登康口腔。 线下美护:板块弹性较大,线下美护行业长期增长空间大,主要驱动力来自供给侧创 新,政策刺激下,医美市场回暖。随着消费者对美丽和健康的需求不断提升,市场对 高质量、高效能美容产品的渴求也随之增加。 ...
化工行业2025年度投资策略:周期曙光将至,成长乘势而上
兴业证券· 2024-12-16 06:33
Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the chemical industry, suggesting a positive outlook for 2025 [1] Core Views - The chemical industry is at the bottom of the cycle, with policy support expected to drive demand recovery in 2025 [1] - Traditional chemical products are expected to see valuation recovery, with leading companies benefiting from their scale and cost advantages [1] - New materials, particularly in areas like photoresists and OLED materials, are seen as key growth opportunities due to their high technological barriers and low domestic penetration rates [1] Traditional Chemical Products - Demand is expected to improve due to policy support in China and a shift towards looser monetary policy in the US [13][17] - Supply-side constraints, including slower new capacity additions and potential policy-driven reforms, could lead to improved profitability [32][47] - Leading companies like Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Huafon Chemical are recommended due to their strong market positions and cost advantages [1][74] New Materials - Photoresists are highlighted as a critical area for domestic substitution, with companies like Tongcheng New Materials recommended [1] - OLED materials and equipment are expected to benefit from the rapid penetration of mid-sized OLED displays and the construction of high-generation production lines [1] - Lubricant additives are another area of focus, with domestic companies like Ruifeng New Materials and Lionbridge expected to reshape the global supply landscape [1] Key Companies - **Wanhua Chemical**: A global leader in MDI production with strong R&D capabilities and a diversified product portfolio [103] - **Hualu Hengsheng**: A cost leader in modern coal chemical industry with ongoing capacity expansions and technological upgrades [104] - **Huafon Chemical**: A leading player in the polyurethane industry with significant scale and cost advantages [105] - **Yangnong Chemical**: A top pesticide manufacturer with strong R&D and production capabilities [106] - **Satellite Chemical**: A leader in the acrylic acid and light hydrocarbon-to-olefin industries with a highly integrated supply chain [106] - **Baofeng Energy**: A benchmark in the coal chemical industry with ongoing expansions in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang [107] - **Lomon Billions**: A global leader in titanium products with a fully integrated supply chain from mining to high-end products [107] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The polyester filament industry is expected to see improved profitability due to slowing supply growth and steady demand [110][111] - The refrigerant industry is benefiting from strict supply quotas and strong demand from the home appliance and automotive sectors [1] - High-energy-consuming and polluting sub-sectors like phosphorus, silicon, and chlor-alkali chemicals may see supply-side reforms [1]
光伏行业2025年年度投资策略:新技术降本增效永不止步,行业自律推动反转可期
兴业证券· 2024-12-16 04:11
行 业 研 究 #title# 重点公司 重点公司 评级 钧达股份 增持 阿特斯 增持 晶澳科技 买入 隆基绿能 买入 阳光电源 增持 #assAuthor# 证券研究报告 #industryId# 电气设备 新技术降本增效永不止步,行业自律推动反转可期 ——光伏行业 2025 年年度投资策略 #createTime1# 2024 年 12 月 13 日 投资要点 #⚫summary 晶硅电池新技术不断突破,降本增效永不止步。 # 光伏技术迭代需建立在效率 优势的基础上,复盘前两轮技术迭代,新电池技术均有显著的效率提升,随 着时间的推移和研究的深入,效率优势不断扩大。目前 BC 及 HJT 相对于 同版型 TOPCon 单块组件,均有 20-30W 的功率提升,从转换效率上看已 具备技术迭代的条件。预计未来BC和HJT有望优势互补,共同对现有TOPCon 产能形成技术迭代,推动行业进一步降本增效,看好新技术迭代带来的投资 机会。 ⚫ 行业自律或将终止恶性竞争,底部反转可期。2024 年新兴市场表现超出预期, 未来将成为全球光伏需求增长重要推动力,预计未来全球光伏装机需求长期 增速将在 10-15%。2024Q ...
家电行业2025年度投资策略:政策托底内需,出口中长期弹性可期
兴业证券· 2024-12-16 04:11
行 北 研 究 证券研究报告 #industryId# 家用电器 #title# 家电行业 2025 年度投资策略: 政策托底内需,出口中长期弹性可期 #investSuggestion# 推荐 ( # investSuggestionCha 维持 )nge# | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------|------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...
有色金属2025年年度策略:右侧窗口期,铜铝、黄金仍是布局重点
兴业证券· 2024-12-16 04:10
业 校 赏 策 隆 行 北 研究 | --- | --- | |----------|-------| | 重点公司 | 评级 | | 金诚信 | 增持 | | 洛阳钼业 | 增持 | | 中国铝业 | 增持 | | 神火股份 | 增持 | | 中国宏桥 | 买入 | | 山金国际 | 增持 | | 赤峰黄金 | 增持 | | 招金矿业 | 买入 | zhaoyuanji@xyzq.com.cn S0190524070011 | --- | |-----------------------| | | | | | hanyij@xyzq.com.cn | | S0190517080003 | | 马睿晴 | | maruiqing@xyzq.com.cn | | S0190524070010 | | --- | |---------------------------| | | | | | #研a究ss助 Au理th:or # | | 汤璐阳 | | tangluyang@xyzq.com.cn | caiyi@xyzq.com.cn S0190518030002 韩亦佳 证券研究报告 #industryId# ...
电子行业2025年年度策略:AI驱动智能硬件创新浪潮,持续看好算力和自主可控趋势
兴业证券· 2024-12-16 04:09
Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the electronics industry [1] Core Views - The rise of edge AI is driving a wave of hardware innovation, with increasing demand for computing power [2] - Semiconductor localization is imperative, with a focus on wafer manufacturing and advanced packaging supply chains [3] - Consumer electronics innovation and recovery are expected to drive upstream demand [3] - AI-driven hardware innovation is expected to boost demand for processors, memory, batteries, and cooling solutions [2][3] Key Companies and Ratings - Key companies with "Buy" ratings: Luxshare Precision, Hikvision [1] - Key companies with "Overweight" ratings: Unimicron, GigaDevice, Luxshare Precision, AAC Technologies, Goertek, etc [1] Industry Overview - The electronics industry showed steady growth in 2024, with total revenue and net profit increasing by 18.09% and 36.56% YoY, respectively [22] - The industry's gross margin and net margin were 15.79% and 4.07% in the first three quarters of 2024 [24] Edge AI and Hardware Innovation - Edge AI is driving innovation in traditional devices like smartphones and PCs, as well as new form factors like glasses and rings [2] - Apple is expected to lead the AI smartphone market, while Android manufacturers are collaborating with AI model providers to implement AI features [2] - AI glasses and headphones are expected to become major interaction points for AI agents due to their portability and voice interaction capabilities [2] Semiconductor Localization - Semiconductor localization is a key trend, with a focus on equipment, materials, and components [3] - The demand for semiconductor materials is expected to improve as wafer fab utilization rates recover [3] - Advanced packaging technologies like HBM and CoWoS are critical for AI applications and require localization efforts [3] Consumer Electronics Recovery - Inventory levels in sectors like memory, passive components, and digital SoCs have normalized, leading to improved performance for related companies [3] - The recovery in consumer electronics is expected to drive demand for upstream components, especially those with increased value due to edge AI [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on traditional devices like AI smartphones and PCs, with attention to value-added components such as PCBs and batteries [4] - Invest in companies benefiting from the growth in computing power, such as high-speed PCB manufacturers [4] - Pay attention to semiconductor equipment and material companies that are key to localization efforts [4] - Look for opportunities in sectors with strong recovery potential, such as passive components and memory interface chips [4] Key Figures and Data - AI smartphone shipments are expected to reach 1.7 billion units in 2024, with a penetration rate of 15% [53] - AI PC shipments are projected to reach 44 million units in 2024 and 103 million units in 2025 [55] - The global HBM market is expected to grow significantly, driven by AI demand [3]
风电行业2025年度策略报告:行业景气度持续提升,盈利拐点已现
兴业证券· 2024-12-16 03:14
重点公司 重点公司 评级 东方电缆 买入 海力风电 增持 金雷股份 增持 泰胜风能 增持 运达股份 增持 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 #industryId# 电气设备 #title# 行业景气度持续提升,盈利拐点已现 ——风电行业 2025 年度策略报告 # investSuggesti on# 推荐 (# investSuggestionCha nge# 维持 ) #createTime1# 2024 年 12 月 13 日 投资要点 #summary# ⚫ 海风:短期行业开工复苏,竞配提供十四五新增量,国管海域及深远海项 目开发打开十四五末及十五五海风新空间,短中长期均有催化,国内海上 风电迎来国补结束后行业发展提速新阶段,行业整体估值有望提升。国内 海上风电开工加速,随着江苏海风审批端的积极推进,江苏待建 2.65GW 海风项目预计将于 2025 年全部并网,江苏开工复苏对于其他省份开工有 较大积极影响,预计 2024 年-2026 年国内海风装机量分别为 8/12/16GW, 同时国内深远海项目持续推进,提升"十五五"海风景气度; 来源:兴业证券经济与金融研究院 #相关报告 relatedRepo ...
世纪互联:EBITDA增长显著,客户上架率提升
兴业证券· 2024-12-15 14:34
司总讲 报 海 告 | --- | --- | |------------------------------|------------| | | | | #市场 ma 数 rk 据 etData # | | | 日期 | 2024-12-10 | | 收盘价(元) | 4.12 | | 总股本(百万股) | 15.79 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 15.48 | | 净资产(百万元) | 9.04 | | 总资产(百万元) | 42.71 | | 每股净资产(元) | | | | 0.58 | hongjiajun@xyzq.com.cn SFC:BPL829 SAC:S0190519080002 zhouluyun@xyzq.com.cn SAC:S0190522070002 请注意:周路昀并非香港证券及期货 事务监察委员会的注册持牌人,不可 在香港从事受监管的活动 #summary# 收入稳步增长,EBITDA 持续提升。24Q3 收入 21.2 亿元(YoY+12.4%), 其中 IDC 业务收入 15.0 亿元(YoY+18.4%),基地型 IDC 收入 5.2 亿元 (YoY+86.4%),城 ...
铜冠矿建:运营稳健,Q3单季收入增长三成
兴业证券· 2024-12-15 14:31
司总评报 | --- | --- | |------------------------------|--------------------------------| | | | | #市场 ma 数 rk 据 etData # | | | 日期 | 2024/12/10 | | 收盘价(元) | 25.39 | | 总股本(百万股) | 210.27 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 43.07 | | 净资产(百万元) | 864.62 | | 总资产(百万元) | 1553.02 | | 每股净资产(元) | 4.11 | | 来源: iFinD | ,兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 | #相关relatedReport# S0190520010004 投资要点 #summary# 事件:公司发布 2024 年三季报,2024 年 1-9 月公司实现收入 990.28 百万元, 同比+22.88%,实现归母净利润 54.38 百万元,同比+13.49%,实现扣非归母净 利润 48.83 百万元,同比+12.26%。 费用率控制严格,Q3 单季度毛利率和净利率略微下降。2024 年 1-9 月,公司 毛利率 ...