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钢铁行业周报:供给侧政策或徐徐展开,板块行情有望持续发酵
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2025-03-11 10:02
| 行业评级 | 推荐(维持) | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 03 月 10 日 | 行业周报 | 钢铁 证券研究报告 相关研究 【兴证金属】钢铁:钢价震荡等待方向, 关注两会政策释放力度-2025.03.02 【兴证金属】钢铁:宏观预期定价上行驱 动,需求修复博弈弹性-2025.02.23 【兴证金属】钢铁:短期利好兑现,关注 旺季需求成色-2025.02.17 S0190518030002 行业评级 推荐(维持) 报告日期 2025 年 03 月 10 日 酵 投资要点: 两会政策符合预期,供给侧政策或徐徐展开,继续推荐钢铁板块的投资机会 分析师:蔡屹 caiyi@xyzq.com.cn 供给侧政策或徐徐展开,板块行情有望持续发 本期市场对两会政策预期的博弈逐步降温,随着对钢铁供给端限产的传闻持续发酵,铁矿 价格中枢快速下移,带动成材成本端支撑走弱,矿价跌幅相对成材而言更大。从需求端看, 本期螺纹钢表观需求为 220.4 万吨,需求恢复斜率有所放缓,但钢材库存整体仍然处于绝 对低位,并有所去库。我们此前判断,本轮需求回升力度偏慢不仅有其自身需求偏弱的原 因,还有节奏进度的 ...
彩妆专题:解锁彩妆市场潜力,明星型、毛戈平等IP型、国风型品牌打造路径拆解
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2025-03-11 10:01
行业跟踪报告 | 美容护理 证券研究报告 | | | 相关研究 【兴证美护】美护板块 2024 年中报总结: 线下美护需求放缓,化妆品表现分化,个 护增长具备韧性-2024.09.05 【兴证美护】美容护理 2024 中期策略: 国货崛起正当时,从价格优势到产品优势 -2024.06.27 S0190519050001 daiky@xyzq.com.cn luyan23@xyzq.com.cn 行业评级 推荐(维持) 报告日期 2025 年 03 月 10 日 彩妆专题:解锁彩妆市场潜力,明星型、毛戈 平等 IP 型、国风型品牌打造路径拆解 投资要点: 风险提示:化妆品行业监管趋严 、品牌力下滑、负面舆论新闻的冲击等。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/22 彩妆行业疫情后恢复增长,底妆为其最大细分赛道。中国彩妆行业为百亿级市场规模, 2023 年市场规模达 618 亿元,同比+11%。受疫情影响,2019 - 2022 年 CAGR 为-2%, 但疫情后随着人们外出增加和悦己需求提升,预计 2023 - 2028 年将以 7%的速度增长。 其中底妆是最大细分赛道,2023 年底妆市场规模达 312 亿元,占 ...
电子比亚迪开启全民智驾时代,车载摄像头迎机遇
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2025-03-11 09:59
行业跟踪报告 | 电子 证券研究报告 行业评级 推荐(维持) 报告日期 2025 年 03 月 10 日 相关研究 【兴证电子】半导体设备皇冠上的明 珠,自主可控大势所趋—光刻机行业深 度报告-2025.03.04 【兴证电子】周报:国补点燃中国智能 手机市场,看好端侧 AI 硬件创新浪潮和 国产算力需求-2025.03.02 【兴证电子】周报:阿里巴巴资本开支 超预期,看好端侧 AI 硬件创新浪潮和国 产算力需求-2025.02.23 分析师:姚康 S0190520080007 yaokang@xyzq.com.cn 分析师:仇文妍 S0190520050001 qiuwenyan@xyzq.com.cn 研究助理:刘珂瑞 liukerui@xyzq.com.cn 比亚迪开启全民智驾时代,车载摄像头迎机遇 投资要点: 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/20 ⚫ 比亚迪开创全面智驾时代。比亚迪于 2025 年 2 月 10 日晚在深圳总部召开智能化战略 发布会,开创全民智驾时代。比亚迪在发布会宣布全系车型搭载天神之眼高阶智驾,将 实现 10 万级以上车型全系标配,10 万级以下车型多数搭载。发布会上展示"天神 ...
银行理财2025年2月月报:理财规模微增,业绩比较基准下行-2025-03-11
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2025-03-11 09:53
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [2] Core Viewpoints - The banking industry is experiencing a slight increase in the scale of existing wealth management products, with a total of 29.92 trillion yuan as of the end of February 2025, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 150.4 billion yuan [4][9] - The issuance scale of bank wealth management products has risen, with a total issuance of 466.2 billion yuan in February 2025, an increase of 60.5 billion yuan from the previous month [18] - The performance benchmark for wealth management products has declined, with various products seeing reductions in their benchmarks due to a low interest rate environment and regulatory adjustments [7][22] Summary by Sections 1. Existing Wealth Management Market Overview - As of the end of February 2025, the existing scale of bank wealth management products is 29.92 trillion yuan, with a slight increase of 150.4 billion yuan from the previous month [4][9] - The top three institutions by wealth management product scale are: - China Merchants Bank Wealth Management: 2.45 trillion yuan - Industrial Bank Wealth Management: 2.18 trillion yuan - Xinyin Wealth Management: 2.09 trillion yuan [9] 2. Wealth Management Product Issuance Market Overview - The issuance scale of bank wealth management products in February 2025 is 466.2 billion yuan, up 60.5 billion yuan from the previous month [18] - The proportion of long- and medium-term wealth management products has increased, with products over one year accounting for 56.2% of the total issuance [18] - The performance benchmarks for various products have decreased, with 1-3 month products at 2.39%, down 6 basis points from the previous month [21][22] 3. Wealth Management Product Net Value Tracking - The annualized yield for cash management products is 1.60%, down 4 basis points from the previous month, while fixed income products yield 1.02%, down 95 basis points [31] - The number of wealth management products with net value below par has increased, with 2,996 products (4.31% of total) reported as below par as of the end of February 2025 [38] 4. Industry Dynamics - Several banks have lowered the performance benchmarks for their wealth management products, with some products now having benchmarks below 2%, reflecting the impact of a low interest rate environment and regulatory changes [7][43]
美容护理彩妆专题:解锁彩妆市场潜力,明星型、毛戈平等IP型、国风型品牌打造路径拆解
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2025-03-11 09:49
行业跟踪报告 | 美容护理 证券研究报告 | | | 相关研究 【兴证美护】美容护理行业 2025 年投资 策略:基本面企稳,龙头公司彰显风采 -2024.12.14 【兴证美护】美护板块 2024 年中报总结: 线下美护需求放缓,化妆品表现分化,个 护增长具备韧性-2024.09.05 【兴证美护】美容护理 2024 中期策略: 国货崛起正当时,从价格优势到产品优势 -2024.06.27 S0190519050001 daiky@xyzq.com.cn luyan23@xyzq.com.cn 行业评级 推荐(维持) 报告日期 2025 年 03 月 10 日 彩妆专题:解锁彩妆市场潜力,明星型、毛戈 平等 IP 型、国风型品牌打造路径拆解 投资要点: 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/22 彩妆行业疫情后恢复增长,底妆为其最大细分赛道。中国彩妆行业为百亿级市场规模, 2023 年市场规模达 618 亿元,同比+11%。受疫情影响,2019 - 2022 年 CAGR 为-2%, 但疫情后随着人们外出增加和悦己需求提升,预计 2023 - 2028 年将以 7%的速度增长。 其中底妆是最大细分赛道,2023 ...
供给侧政策或徐徐展开,板块行情有望持续发酵
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2025-03-11 09:39
Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [3][4] Core Viewpoints - The policy expectations from the Two Sessions align with forecasts, and supply-side policies are expected to gradually unfold, continuing to recommend investment opportunities in the steel sector [5][6] - The market's speculation regarding the Two Sessions policy is cooling down, with rumors of production cuts on the supply side leading to a rapid decline in iron ore prices, which in turn weakens the cost support for finished steel [5][6] - The apparent demand for rebar is 2.204 million tons, with a slight slowdown in demand recovery, but overall steel inventory remains at absolute low levels [5][6] - The acceleration of special bond issuance indicates a more proactive fiscal policy from the government, which may lead to increased physical work volume in the future [5][6] - The steel supply-demand fundamentals do not show significant contradictions, providing favorable conditions for bullish momentum [5][6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The steel sector increased by 2.7%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.15 percentage points [12] Basic Market Tracking - National steel prices are generally weak, with a decrease in iron ore inventory [12][15] - The average price of rebar in major cities shows a decline, with Beijing at 3,294 CNY, Shanghai at 3,314 CNY, and Guangzhou at 3,566 CNY [12] - The profitability of steel products remains acceptable, with rebar gross profit per ton increasing by 44 CNY [9][26] Industry Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission has confirmed rumors regarding the reduction of crude steel supply, indicating a new round of supply-side policies may gradually unfold [6][7] - The high furnace operating rate is at 79.51%, with a slight increase of 1.22 percentage points week-on-week [9][28] - The apparent consumption of rebar increased by 29.6 thousand tons week-on-week, indicating a recovery in demand [9][34]
医药生物行业周报:政策持续支持医药行业发展,继续看好创新药、创新药产业链、AI医疗三大方向
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2025-03-11 02:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of the pharmaceutical sector's prosperity, highlighting three main directions: innovative drugs, the innovative drug industry chain, and AI healthcare [2][3]. - The government work report presented by Premier Li Qiang stresses the importance of medical insurance, healthcare, and pharmaceuticals, supporting the development of related industries [3][16]. - The report suggests focusing on segments with good growth potential and industrial logic, with "innovation + internationalization" as core keywords [3][21]. Weekly Market Performance - From March 3 to March 7, 2025, the pharmaceutical sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 1.09% compared to the CSI 300's 1.39% [5][7]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the pharmaceutical sector has shown a 2.07% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.84 percentage points [5]. Valuation Levels - As of March 7, 2025, the pharmaceutical sector's valuation stands at 25.97 (PE, TTM), with a premium rate of 116.19% over the CSI 300 [7][10]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on innovative drugs and the improving fundamentals of the innovative drug industry chain, as well as the growing importance of AI healthcare in 2025 [3][21]. - It highlights the potential recovery in the medical device sector and the expected rebound in consumer healthcare if the economic outlook improves [3][21]. Recommended Stocks - **Hengrui Medicine**: Expected to recover from the transitional pain of innovation, with several innovative drugs starting to gain traction [3][31]. - **Innovent Biologics**: Entering a period of accelerated growth, with major products expected to launch next year [3][31]. - **BeiGene**: Continues to exceed expectations with its core product, Zebrutinib, and is gradually moving towards profitability [3][31]. - **Aibot Medical**: Driven by innovation and new product launches, with significant growth expected in its product lines [3][31]. - **Enhua Pharmaceutical**: Steady growth in the psychiatric anesthesia sector, with a robust pipeline ensuring future growth [3][31]. Sector Trends - The report notes that the innovative drug sector is a key focus of policy support, with expectations for improved performance in 2025 [18][20]. - AI healthcare is identified as a significant direction for the pharmaceutical sector in 2025, with companies leveraging high-quality medical data resources to gain competitive advantages [25][21]. - The medical device industry is expected to return to a growth trajectory, with ongoing policy reforms and market demand driving recovery [27][21].
广西推进“十四五”大气污染防治攻坚收官工作
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2025-03-11 02:32
行业周报 | 环保 证券研究报告 分析师:李静云 S0190522120001 lijingyun@xyzq.com.cn | | 推荐(维持) | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | | 报告日期 2025 年 03 月 09 日 相关研究 【兴证环保】环保周报:湖北印发 《2025 年全省生态环境保护工作要 点》,努力完成"十四五"碳排放强度目 标-2025.03.02 【兴证环保】环保周报:上海 2026 年底 前实现固体废物近零填埋目标,山东试 点危废定向利用-2025.02.23 【兴证环保】环保周报:重庆提出 2025 年新增污水处理能力 50 万吨/天以上,陕 西全面推进美丽陕西建设-2025.02.16 分析师:蔡屹 S0190518030002 caiyi@xyzq.com.cn ⚫ 重要数据跟踪:( 1)碳市场:3 月 3 日至 3 月 7 日,全国碳市场碳排放配额 CEA)挂 牌协议成交量 1.03 万吨,上期 2.24-2.28)成交量为 42.62 万吨,期间减少 41.59 万 吨,与上期相比-97.58%;3 月 6 日碳排放配额 CEA)收盘价为 89.62 元/吨, ...
环保行业周报:广西推进“十四五”大气污染防治攻坚收官工作
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2025-03-11 02:09
行业周报 | 环保 证券研究报告 | | 推荐(维持) | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | | 报告日期 2025 年 03 月 09 日 相关研究 【兴证环保】环保周报:湖北印发 《2025 年全省生态环境保护工作要 点》,努力完成"十四五"碳排放强度目 标-2025.03.02 【兴证环保】环保周报:上海 2026 年底 前实现固体废物近零填埋目标,山东试 点危废定向利用-2025.02.23 【兴证环保】环保周报:重庆提出 2025 年新增污水处理能力 50 万吨/天以上,陕 西全面推进美丽陕西建设-2025.02.16 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/10 ⚫ 重要数据跟踪:( 1)碳市场:3 月 3 日至 3 月 7 日,全国碳市场碳排放配额 CEA)挂 牌协议成交量 1.03 万吨,上期 2.24-2.28)成交量为 42.62 万吨,期间减少 41.59 万 吨,与上期相比-97.58%;3 月 6 日碳排放配额 CEA)收盘价为 89.62 元/吨,日环比 +0.56%,与上期相比+0.07%。2 月 24 日至 2 月 28 日,国内 8 个试点城市碳排放配额 总成交量 21 ...
煤炭行业周报:陕蒙坑口煤价止跌,“金三”补库值得期待
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES· 2025-03-10 15:05
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the coal industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the coal prices at the Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia pitheads have stopped declining, and there is an expectation for inventory replenishment during the "golden March" period [2]. Weekly Data Tracking Thermal Coal - The pithead coal prices in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have stabilized, and terminal inventories are being reduced as expected [8]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal prices are gradually stabilizing, and the cost pressures on coke have eased [21]. Downstream Changes - The daily average pig iron output from 247 sample steel mills nationwide is reported at 230.51 thousand tons, showing a slight increase [26]. Futures Market - The prices of coking coal futures have continued to decline, with price spreads narrowing [34]. Transportation Situation - Both sea and land freight rates continue to rise, while the transportation volume on the Daqin line in February has decreased by 0.5% year-on-year [37]. Weekly Market Review (March 3-7, 2025) - The report provides performance metrics for various indices and coal companies, indicating a mixed performance with the coal sector showing a slight increase of 0.13% [41]. Weekly Outlook (March 2-8, 2025) - The report includes a table of coal companies with their ratings, closing prices, and weekly performance, indicating a generally stable outlook for major players in the coal industry [43].