【兴证建筑】周观点：多地 2025 年固定 资产投资计划增速高于 GDP，基建投资 仍是重要抓手（2025.1.11-2025.1.17）- 2025.01.19 【兴证建筑】周观点：财政扩张趋势明 确，建筑行业受益逐步显现（2025.1.4- 2025.1.10）-2025.01.12 【兴证建筑】周观点：建筑业 PMI 回升 明显，看好基建实物工作量 （2024.12.28-2025.1.3）-2025.01.05 | 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 02 月 09 日 | 周观点：节后建筑开复工节奏偏慢，静待财政发力效果 显现（2025.2.1-2025.2.7） 相关研究 行业周报 | 建筑装饰 证券研究报告 分析师：黄杨 S0190518070004 huangyang@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：李明 S0190524060003 liming22@xyzq.com.cn 投资要点： ⚫ 春节后第一周建筑工地开复工率为 7.4%，整体开复工节奏偏慢，静待化债、专项债等 财政政策发力效果显现。 据百年建筑调研，截至 2 月 6 日（（农 ...

行业周报 | 有色金属 证券研究报告 | 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 02 月 09 日 | 相关研究 【兴证金属】有色金属：金价上行，黄 金股估值有望修复-2025.01.13 分析师：蔡屹 S0190518030002 caiyi@xyzq.com.cn 【兴证金属】有色金属：关税压力缓 和，继续看好铜铝黄金配置机会- 2025.01.26 【兴证金属】有色金属：宏观利好推动 金属价格持续回升-2025.01.19 tangluyang@xyzq.com.cn 关税落地后金价再创新高，关注黄金股右侧布 局机会 投资要点： 分析师：赵远喆 S0190524070011 zhaoyuanji@xyzq.com.cn ⚫ 铝：宏观情绪转暖推动铝价上行，行业盈利持续修复 研究助理：汤璐阳 本期(0205-0207)铝价上行，周内电解铝产能端整体仍延续偏稳运行，四川部分减产产能完 成复产，需求端复工后下游开工率逐步提升。成本端氧化铝现货价格延续回落，叠加铝价 上行，电解铝行业利润持续修复，目前行业平均盈利已达到 2000 元/吨。整体来看，宏观 面上国 ...

海外行业周报 | 地产建筑业 证券研究报告 | 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 02 月 09 日 | 相关研究 【兴证海外地产】海外地产周报 （2025.01.20-2025.01.26）：港股地产进 入年报业绩期-2025.01.26 【兴证海外地产社服】海外地产周报 （2025.01.13-2025.01.19）：统计局发布 2024 年房地产市场情况-2025.01.19 【兴证海外地产社服】海外地产周报 （2025.01.06-2025.01.12）：关注香港本 地股的高股息属性-2025.01.12 分析师：宋健 S0190518010002 BMV912 songjian@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：严宁馨 S0190521010001 请注意: 严宁馨并非香港证券及期货事务 监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从 事受监管的活动。 yanningxin@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：孙钟涟 S0190521080001 请注意: 孙钟涟并非香港证券及期货事务 监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从 事受监管的活动。 sunzhong ...

行业周报 | 计算机 证券研究报告 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 02 月 09 日 相关研究 【兴证计算机】2025 年春节假期备忘录- 2025.02.03 【兴证计算机】AI 产业跟踪：算力开支 加速扩张，AI Agent 迎爆发元年- 2025.01.26 【兴证计算机】信创：地缘环境再迎变 局，产业发展有望加速-2025.01.19 分析师：蒋佳霖 S0190515050002 jiangjialin@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：孙乾 S0190518110001 sunqian@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：陈鑫 S0190522030001 chenxin21@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：杨本鸿 S0190522080001 yangbenhong@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：张旭光 S0190523090002 zhangxuguang@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：杨海盟 S0190523070001 yanghaimeng@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：桂杨 S0190524040005 guiyang@xyzq.com.cn 从 DeepSeek 崛起 ...

行业深度报告 | 电子 证券研究报告 | 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 02 月 08 日 | 【兴证电子】周报：国补促进手机等数 码产品销量，看好端侧 AI 硬件创新浪潮 和算力架构创新-2025.01.26 【兴证电子】周报：台积电业绩超预 期，看好端侧 AI 硬件创新浪潮和算力架 构创新-2025.01.19 分析师：姚康 S0190520080007 yaokang@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：王恬恬 S0190524040002 wangtiantian22@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：李峰 S0190524030001 lifengyjy@xyzq.com.cn Deepseek 加速端侧 AI 渗透，电池产业链有 望实现量价齐升 相关研究 【兴证电子】Deepseek 日活高增，海外 大厂财报显示算力需求强劲，推理侧即 将迎来爆发-2025.02.04 投资要点： 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/32 ⚫ 电池是消费电子核心模组，容量密度持续升级。软包锂电池具有单体能量密度 高、电化学性能优越、安全性强等优点，是目前应用最广 ...

行业深度报告 | 公用事业 证券研究报告 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 02 月 07 日 相关研究 【兴证公用】全球燃气供需格局回顾与 展望（2）-2022.11.27 【兴证公用&宏观】全球燃气供需格局变 迁及展望-2022.04.14 分析师：史一粟 S0190523110001 shiyisu@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：蔡屹 S0190518030002 caiyi@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：李静云 S0190522120001 lijingyun@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：吉金 S0190522030003 jijin@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：刘梓涵 S0190523070006 liuzihan@xyzq.com.cn 全球燃气供需格局变迁与展望 3：寻找影响 2025 年进口 LNG 价格的关键变量 投资要点： 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/29 ⚫ 2024 年国际气价触底回升，供需平衡主要受气温、地缘、短期事件影响。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，美国 HH/ 欧 洲 TTF/ 中 国 LNG 到 岸 价 分 别 相 较 年 初 上 涨 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Increase" (Maintain) [2] Core Views - The company reported Q4 2024 revenue of $25.71 billion, which was a slight increase of 2% quarter-over-quarter but fell short of market expectations of $27.26 billion. The GAAP net profit was $2.3 billion, with a contribution of $600 million from changes in the fair value of digital assets. The automotive sales gross margin (excluding credits and leasing) decreased by 4% to 13%, marking a three-year low. The energy business gross margin was 25%, which, although it decreased, remained in a high range [4][5]. - The company has a positive outlook with new products and the Robotaxi expected to launch in 2025. The company defines 2024 as a trough between two growth waves, anticipating a resurgence in sales growth in 2025 driven by new models and advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology. The company expects a 50% year-over-year increase in energy deployment in 2025 [6][7]. - The recent financial report reflects a transitional period as the company is at a critical juncture of product and technology upgrades. The existing Model 3 and Model Y have been on the market for several years, leading to a decline in product competitiveness and profitability. The company remains a leader in autonomous driving, with significant investments in AI, data, algorithms, and infrastructure, which provide a solid foundation for continuous improvement in autonomous driving technology [6][7]. Financial Summary - Key financial metrics for the company are as follows: - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at $97.69 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 1% - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be $7.09 billion, reflecting a 53% decline year-over-year - Gross margin is projected at 18% for 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) of 10% [5][6]. - The company anticipates automotive sales of 1.8 million units in 2024, with a gradual increase in production and sales expected in subsequent years [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Enphase Energy, Inc. is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - Enphase Energy, Inc. is a leading player in the microinverter market in the U.S. The company's performance is expected to improve quarterly in 2024, with significant share buybacks reflecting confidence. With the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, demand for residential photovoltaics in the U.S. is anticipated to recover, leading to profit recovery in 2025 and long-term growth potential [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Enphase shipped 2.013 million microinverters, a year-on-year increase of 26.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.2%, translating to 878 MW, which is a 33.0% year-on-year and 20.3% quarter-on-quarter increase. The average power per unit was 426W, up 2.9% year-on-year and 1.0% quarter-on-quarter. The company also shipped 152.4 MWh of energy storage batteries, marking an 88.8% year-on-year increase but an 11.9% quarter-on-quarter decrease [4][5]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q4 2024, the company's revenue reached $383 million, exceeding previous guidance of $360-400 million, representing a 26.5% year-on-year and a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter increase. Revenue from the U.S. accounted for 79%, while international revenue contributed 21%, primarily from Europe, Latin America, Australia, and India. U.S. revenue grew by 33% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter, while international revenue increased by 8% year-on-year but decreased by 17% quarter-on-quarter due to weak demand in Europe [4][5]. Gross Margin and Net Profit - The gross profit (Non-GAAP) for Q4 2024 was $204 million, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 33.9%. The gross margin rate (Non-GAAP) was 39.7%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. Including IRA subsidies, the gross margin rate was 53.2%, up 3.0 percentage points year-on-year and 5.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, maintaining a high level [4][5]. Future Guidance - For Q1 2025, the company expects revenue to be between $340 million and $380 million, with a midpoint representing a 37% year-on-year increase. The gross margin rate (Non-GAAP) is projected to be between 48% and 51%, benefiting from IRA subsidies [4][5]. Market Position and Strategy - Enphase continues to focus on research and development and sales, adopting a light-asset model through outsourcing. The company has a global quarterly production capacity of 7.25 million microinverters, with 5 million units produced in the U.S. [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 14.645 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.15%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.245 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.84% [2][3] - The performance is under pressure due to weak sales volume and pricing, with a projected sales volume of 2.975 million tons in 2024, down 0.75% year-on-year [3] - Despite the short-term challenges, the company is expected to maintain a high dividend level, with cash dividend ratios of 83.0%, 99.6%, and 101.4% for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company anticipates a revenue of 14.645 billion yuan, with a slight decline in net profit to 1.245 billion yuan [5] - The gross margin is expected to decrease to 48.5% in 2024 from 49.1% in 2023 [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 2.57 yuan, down from 2.76 yuan in 2023 [5] Sales and Market Dynamics - The sales volume is projected to decline to 2.975 million tons in 2024, with a quarterly breakdown showing a significant drop in Q4 [3] - The company faces challenges in high-end product sales, with brands like 1664 and Uusu experiencing a decline, while others like Lebao and Carlsberg continue to grow [3] Future Outlook - The company aims to explore new growth opportunities and expand non-drinking channels, with expectations for revenue stability in 2025 [4] - The projected revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 14.789 billion yuan and 14.968 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 1.267 billion yuan and 1.298 billion yuan [5]

基础数据 | 02 月 07 日收盘价（元） | 120.55 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（亿元） | 122.00 | | 总股本（亿股） | 1.01 | | 来源：聚源，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 | | 相关研究 公司点评报告 | 电力设备 证券研究报告 | 报告日期 | 2025 年 02 月 07 日 | | --- | --- | | 公司评级 | 增持（首次） | 分析师：武圣豪 S0190524030007 wushenghao@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：王帅 S0190521110001 wangshuai21@xyzq.com.cn 欧陆通(300870.SZ) 2024 年业绩预告点评，AI 浪潮驱动服务器电 源高景气，高功率服务器电源增长强劲 投资要点： | 主要财务指标 | | --- | | 会计年度 | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2870 | 3757 | 4563 | 5249 | | 同比增长 | 6.2% | 30.9 ...