行业跟踪报告 | 美容护理 证券研究报告 | | | 相关研究 【兴证美护】美容护理行业 2025 年投资 策略：基本面企稳，龙头公司彰显风采 -2024.12.14 【兴证美护】美护板块 2024 年中报总结： 线下美护需求放缓，化妆品表现分化，个 护增长具备韧性-2024.09.05 【兴证美护】美容护理 2024 中期策略： 国货崛起正当时，从价格优势到产品优势 -2024.06.27 S0190519050001 daiky@xyzq.com.cn luyan23@xyzq.com.cn 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 03 月 10 日 彩妆专题：解锁彩妆市场潜力，明星型、毛戈 平等 IP 型、国风型品牌打造路径拆解 投资要点： 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/22 彩妆行业疫情后恢复增长，底妆为其最大细分赛道。中国彩妆行业为百亿级市场规模， 2023 年市场规模达 618 亿元，同比+11%。受疫情影响，2019 - 2022 年 CAGR 为-2%， 但疫情后随着人们外出增加和悦己需求提升，预计 2023 - 2028 年将以 7%的速度增长。 其中底妆是最大细分赛道，2023 ...

行业周报 | 钢铁 证券研究报告 | 行业评级 | 推荐(维持) | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 03 月 10 日 | 相关研究 【兴证金属】钢铁：钢价震荡等待方向， 关注两会政策释放力度-2025.03.02 【兴证金属】钢铁：宏观预期定价上行驱 动，需求修复博弈弹性-2025.02.23 【兴证金属】钢铁：短期利好兑现，关注 旺季需求成色-2025.02.17 板块重点数据跟踪 需求平稳：本期（3.10-3.14，下同）全国建筑钢材成交量均值 10.39 万吨，周环比下降 0.7 万吨。根据 Mysteel 数据测算显示，螺纹钢表观消费 220.4 万吨，周环比上升 29.6 万吨； 热轧板卷表观消费 318.0 万吨，周环比下降 4.3 万吨。 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 03 月 10 日 酵 投资要点： 两会政策符合预期，供给侧政策或徐徐展开，继续推荐钢铁板块的投资机会 分析师：蔡屹 caiyi@xyzq.com.cn 供给侧政策或徐徐展开，板块行情有望持续发 本期市场对两会政策预期的博弈逐步降温，随着对钢铁供给端限产的传闻持续发酵，铁矿 价格中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of the pharmaceutical sector's prosperity, highlighting three main directions: innovative drugs, the innovative drug industry chain, and AI healthcare [2][3]. - The government work report presented by Premier Li Qiang stresses the importance of medical insurance, healthcare, and pharmaceuticals, supporting the development of related industries [3][16]. - The report suggests focusing on segments with good growth potential and industrial logic, with "innovation + internationalization" as core keywords [3][21]. Weekly Market Performance - From March 3 to March 7, 2025, the pharmaceutical sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 1.09% compared to the CSI 300's 1.39% [5][7]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the pharmaceutical sector has shown a 2.07% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.84 percentage points [5]. Valuation Levels - As of March 7, 2025, the pharmaceutical sector's valuation stands at 25.97 (PE, TTM), with a premium rate of 116.19% over the CSI 300 [7][10]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on innovative drugs and the improving fundamentals of the innovative drug industry chain, as well as the growing importance of AI healthcare in 2025 [3][21]. - It highlights the potential recovery in the medical device sector and the expected rebound in consumer healthcare if the economic outlook improves [3][21]. Recommended Stocks - **Hengrui Medicine**: Expected to recover from the transitional pain of innovation, with several innovative drugs starting to gain traction [3][31]. - **Innovent Biologics**: Entering a period of accelerated growth, with major products expected to launch next year [3][31]. - **BeiGene**: Continues to exceed expectations with its core product, Zebrutinib, and is gradually moving towards profitability [3][31]. - **Aibot Medical**: Driven by innovation and new product launches, with significant growth expected in its product lines [3][31]. - **Enhua Pharmaceutical**: Steady growth in the psychiatric anesthesia sector, with a robust pipeline ensuring future growth [3][31]. Sector Trends - The report notes that the innovative drug sector is a key focus of policy support, with expectations for improved performance in 2025 [18][20]. - AI healthcare is identified as a significant direction for the pharmaceutical sector in 2025, with companies leveraging high-quality medical data resources to gain competitive advantages [25][21]. - The medical device industry is expected to return to a growth trajectory, with ongoing policy reforms and market demand driving recovery [27][21].

行业周报 | 环保 证券研究报告 分析师：李静云 S0190522120001 lijingyun@xyzq.com.cn | | 推荐（维持） | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | | 报告日期 2025 年 03 月 09 日 相关研究 【兴证环保】环保周报：湖北印发 《2025 年全省生态环境保护工作要 点》，努力完成"十四五"碳排放强度目 标-2025.03.02 【兴证环保】环保周报：上海 2026 年底 前实现固体废物近零填埋目标，山东试 点危废定向利用-2025.02.23 【兴证环保】环保周报：重庆提出 2025 年新增污水处理能力 50 万吨/天以上，陕 西全面推进美丽陕西建设-2025.02.16 分析师：蔡屹 S0190518030002 caiyi@xyzq.com.cn ⚫ 重要数据跟踪：（ 1）碳市场：3 月 3 日至 3 月 7 日，全国碳市场碳排放配额 CEA）挂 牌协议成交量 1.03 万吨，上期 2.24-2.28）成交量为 42.62 万吨，期间减少 41.59 万 吨，与上期相比-97.58%；3 月 6 日碳排放配额 CEA）收盘价为 89.62 元/吨， ...

行业周报 | 环保 证券研究报告 | | 推荐（维持） | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | | 报告日期 2025 年 03 月 09 日 相关研究 【兴证环保】环保周报：湖北印发 《2025 年全省生态环境保护工作要 点》，努力完成"十四五"碳排放强度目 标-2025.03.02 【兴证环保】环保周报：上海 2026 年底 前实现固体废物近零填埋目标，山东试 点危废定向利用-2025.02.23 【兴证环保】环保周报：重庆提出 2025 年新增污水处理能力 50 万吨/天以上，陕 西全面推进美丽陕西建设-2025.02.16 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/10 ⚫ 重要数据跟踪：（ 1）碳市场：3 月 3 日至 3 月 7 日，全国碳市场碳排放配额 CEA）挂 牌协议成交量 1.03 万吨，上期 2.24-2.28）成交量为 42.62 万吨，期间减少 41.59 万 吨，与上期相比-97.58%；3 月 6 日碳排放配额 CEA）收盘价为 89.62 元/吨，日环比 +0.56%，与上期相比+0.07%。2 月 24 日至 2 月 28 日，国内 8 个试点城市碳排放配额 总成交量 21 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the coal industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the coal prices at the Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia pitheads have stopped declining, and there is an expectation for inventory replenishment during the "golden March" period [2]. Weekly Data Tracking Thermal Coal - The pithead coal prices in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have stabilized, and terminal inventories are being reduced as expected [8]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal prices are gradually stabilizing, and the cost pressures on coke have eased [21]. Downstream Changes - The daily average pig iron output from 247 sample steel mills nationwide is reported at 230.51 thousand tons, showing a slight increase [26]. Futures Market - The prices of coking coal futures have continued to decline, with price spreads narrowing [34]. Transportation Situation - Both sea and land freight rates continue to rise, while the transportation volume on the Daqin line in February has decreased by 0.5% year-on-year [37]. Weekly Market Review (March 3-7, 2025) - The report provides performance metrics for various indices and coal companies, indicating a mixed performance with the coal sector showing a slight increase of 0.13% [41]. Weekly Outlook (March 2-8, 2025) - The report includes a table of coal companies with their ratings, closing prices, and weekly performance, indicating a generally stable outlook for major players in the coal industry [43].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the positive signals from government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to benefit the home furnishing sector [4][6] - The report suggests that the paper industry is likely to experience a small recovery due to price increases in cultural paper and favorable competition dynamics [4][6] - The report highlights the potential for AI integration in home design and the positive outlook for companies involved in AI home products [4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The light industry sector outperformed the market with a weekly increase of 1.34%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.39%, resulting in a slight underperformance of 0.05 percentage points [6] - The home furnishing, paper, packaging, and entertainment products sectors recorded respective increases of 1.24%, 0.95%, 0.99%, and 3.02% [6] 2. Paper Industry Tracking - The report notes a mixed trend in paper prices, with packaging paper prices declining slightly, while cultural paper prices remained relatively stable [4][6] - Specific price data includes: - Corrugated paper at 2766 CNY/ton, down 0.7% week-on-week - Boxboard paper at 3687 CNY/ton, down 0.3% week-on-week - White card paper at 4318 CNY/ton, down 0.05% week-on-week - Double glue paper at 5445 CNY/ton, up 0.4% week-on-week - Copper plate paper at 5820 CNY/ton, up 0.4% week-on-week [4][6] 3. Home Furnishing Sector Tracking - The report highlights government initiatives to stimulate the housing market, including a 300 billion CNY subsidy for consumer goods, which includes home furnishings [4] - Data from March indicates a significant increase in new residential supply, with 721 million square meters expected, marking a 166% month-on-month increase [4] - The report recommends leading companies in the home furnishing sector, such as Oppein Home and Sophia, due to their strong retail business and potential for performance recovery [4] 4. Export Sector Tracking - The report discusses recent changes in tariffs affecting the automotive industry, which may have implications for the broader export market [4] - Export data for January-February shows a total export value of 539.9 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, although home furnishing exports decreased by 15.5% [4][6] 5. Consumer Sector Tracking - The government has emphasized the need to boost consumption and investment, aiming to make domestic demand a key driver of economic growth [4] - The report identifies opportunities in AI glasses and personal care products, recommending companies that have performed well during promotional periods [4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the construction and decoration industry, driven by increased government spending and infrastructure investment [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the issuance of special bonds and an increase in the deficit ratio are expected to promote stable growth in infrastructure investment, which remains a crucial driver for economic stability [3][4]. - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 500 billion yuan, aimed at various investment projects [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, with a focus on urban village and dilapidated housing renovations to stimulate housing demand [4][5]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: debt reduction driving improvements in state-owned construction enterprises, the Belt and Road Initiative accelerating international engineering projects, and high-dividend state-owned construction companies presenting attractive investment opportunities [6][7][8]. Summary by Sections Important Events Tracking - The government work report sets a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, with a focus on expanding effective investment [12]. - The report outlines the issuance of 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds and a deficit target of 5.66 trillion yuan for 2025, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending [12]. Market Performance Tracking - The construction engineering sector (SW) experienced a slight decline of 0.22% from March 3 to March 7, 2025, while the overall A-share index rose by 2.43% [13][14]. - The report notes that the construction sector's performance relative to the overall market has been underwhelming, with a negative excess return of -2.65 percentage points [13][14]. Industry Data Tracking - The report tracks financing data, noting that 904.59 billion yuan in urban investment bonds were issued during the period from March 1 to March 7, 2025, with a net financing amount of 244.43 billion yuan [23]. - As of March 7, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds reached 609.765 billion yuan, accounting for 13.86% of the annual plan [25][27].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The recent decline in oil prices is expected to elevate the profit margins for the aviation sector, with Brent crude falling below $70 per barrel and WTI below $67 per barrel [9] - The report estimates that if low oil prices persist, major airlines could save between 4 to 5 billion yuan in costs, equivalent to a 3% to 4% change in ticket prices [9] - The overall demand for the express delivery sector remains strong, with significant year-on-year growth in both volume and revenue [4][21] Summary by Sections Weekly Focus - The focus is on the rapid decline in oil prices, which is anticipated to boost the profit margins for airlines [5][9] Industry Data Tracking (2025.03.02 - 03.08) Aviation High-Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic flight volume for the week was 81,367 flights, averaging 11,624 flights per day, down 10.07% week-on-week and 7.47% year-on-year [11] - Domestic passenger volume reached 11.06 million, down 12.05% week-on-week and 4.17% year-on-year [12] - The average ticket price decreased by 4.76% week-on-week and 3.39% year-on-year [12] - The domestic load factor was 83.18%, up 3.73 percentage points year-on-year [13] Express Delivery High-Frequency Data Tracking - From February 24 to March 2, the average daily collection volume was approximately 534 million pieces, with a week-on-week change of -0.56% [20] - Year-to-date (January 1 to March 2), the average daily collection volume was about 488 million pieces, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37.41% [21] - In 2024, the express delivery business volume grew by 21.5% year-on-year, with revenue increasing by 13.8% [4][21] Shipping High-Frequency Data Tracking - The BDI index for the dry bulk market was 1,263 points, up 17% week-on-week [52] - The CCFI index for the international container shipping market fell by 3%, while the SCFI index decreased by 5% [52] - The VLCC-TCE rate for oil shipping was $39,359 per day, down 1% week-on-week [53] Recent Key Reports - The report recommends a focus on specific companies within the industry, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Shandong Highway, and various airlines and express delivery companies [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that Australia's pension investments in the US are expected to exceed AUD 1 trillion in the future [2] - The analysis focuses on various pension management entities and their projected performance metrics for 2024 and beyond [6][10] Summary by Sections Pension Management - Key players in pension management include CalPERS, The People's Pension, GPFG, NPS, and GPIF, with various performance metrics outlined for 2024 [6][7][8] Pension Investment - The report provides detailed insights into the investment strategies and expected returns of major pension funds, including specific percentages and projected growth rates for 2024 [10][12]