Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The cyclical recovery expectation is significantly warming under multiple factors, with a focus on leading chemical companies and development opportunities in certain sub-industries [2][4] - The government has proposed a consumption boost action plan aimed at expanding domestic demand, which is expected to benefit the chemical industry [2][3] - The demand for oxalic acid is expected to improve due to the expansion of production capacity by leading companies in the lithium iron phosphate sector [4][6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the government's focus on boosting consumption and domestic demand, which is expected to positively impact the chemical industry [2][3] - The cyclical recovery is supported by policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and promoting population growth, which will further enhance demand for chemical products [4] Key Companies and Sub-industries - Key companies to watch include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Hengli Petrochemical, and Rongsheng Petrochemical [4][7] - Recommended sub-industries include SAP (Satellite Chemical, Wanhua Chemical), polyester filament (Tongkun Co., New Fengming), spandex (HuaFeng Chemical, Xinxiang Chemical Fiber), and organic silicon (Hesheng Silicon, Dongyue Silicon Materials) [4] Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The report notes that international oil prices are fluctuating, influenced by various factors including U.S. economic data and geopolitical situations [6][11] - The price of oxalic acid is projected to increase significantly due to rising demand from lithium iron phosphate production [6][12] - The report also indicates that the prices of various chemical products, such as sulfuric acid and compound fertilizers, are on the rise due to seasonal demand and supply constraints [12][13]

行业周报 | 计算机 证券研究报告 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 03 月 16 日 相关研究 【兴证计算机】RISC-V 开源生态：正在 快速崛起的国产化分支-2025.03.09 【兴证计算机】DeepSeek 跟踪：AI 平 权领军，加力开源及降价-2025.03.02 【兴证计算机】一文看懂 DS 带动下推理 算力市场空间及投资机会-2025.02.23 分析师：蒋佳霖 S0190515050002 jiangjialin@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：孙乾 S0190518110001 sunqian@xyzq.com.cn eCall 潜在市场有多大？—eCall 产业跟踪系 列二（03.09-03.15） 投资要点： 分析师：陈鑫 S0190522030001 chenxin21@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：杨本鸿 S0190522080001 yangbenhong@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：张旭光 S0190523090002 zhangxuguang@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：杨海盟 S0190523070001 yanghaimeng@xyzq.com ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that U.S. sanctions against Iran are intensifying, and OPEC has reached a consensus to increase production, indicating upward potential for the oil tanker sector [2][7] - The express delivery business volume has shown significant year-on-year growth, with a reported increase of 21.5% in 2024 [3] Summary by Sections Weekly Focus - The U.S. government has announced additional sanctions against Iran, targeting several individuals, entities, and vessels involved in Iranian oil exports, including 10 VLCC supertankers, which constitutes about 20% of the global tanker fleet [7] - OPEC has agreed to gradually increase production starting April, aiming to release 2.2 million barrels per day [7] Industry Data Tracking (2025.03.09 – 03.15) Aviation Data - Domestic flight volume for the week was 84,029 flights, averaging 12,004 flights per day, a slight decrease of 0.10% week-on-week and 0.50% year-on-year [10] - Domestic passenger volume reached 11.43 million, a 0.05% increase week-on-week and a 2.12% increase year-on-year [11] - The average domestic ticket price decreased by 3.49% week-on-week and 6.31% year-on-year [11] Express Delivery Data - For the week of March 3-9, the average daily collection volume was approximately 555 million pieces, a 3.99% increase from the previous week [17] - Year-to-date, the average daily collection volume is about 495 million pieces, reflecting a 36.00% increase year-on-year [17] - In 2024, the express delivery business volume increased by 21.5% year-on-year, with revenue up by 13.8% [3] Shipping Data - The BDI index for dry bulk shipping was reported at 1,517 points, a 20% increase week-on-week [48] - The VLCC-TCE rate was $38,329 per day, a 3% decrease week-on-week [49] Recent Key Reports - The report recommends focusing on companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy, Shandong Highway, and China Eastern Airlines, among others, as part of the investment strategy [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the production disruption in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has led to an increase in global prices for copper, cobalt, and tin. The DRC government announced a four-month suspension of cobalt exports, and mining operations in the Bisie tin mine were halted due to conflict, significantly impacting metal prices [2] - The report notes that the aluminum price is supported by seasonal demand and ongoing inventory depletion, with the current profit margin for the electrolytic aluminum industry around 2800 RMB/ton [3] - Gold prices have surged above 3000 USD/oz due to inflation concerns and uncertainties surrounding tariffs, with expectations of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 [3] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Performance Review - The non-ferrous metal sector rose by 3.56%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.17 percentage points [17] 2. Industrial Metal Fundamentals Tracking (a) Aluminum - Aluminum prices are supported by seasonal demand and inventory depletion, with a stable production environment and a profit margin of 2800 RMB/ton [3][25] (b) Copper - Copper prices continue to rise, driven by stable demand and tight supply conditions, with domestic copper inventories decreasing [3][39] (c) Tin - Tin prices have surged due to the suspension of operations at the Bisie mine in the DRC, which has been affected by conflict [2][21] 3. Precious Metal Fundamentals Tracking (a) Gold - Gold prices have reached 3000 USD/oz, influenced by inflation data and tariff uncertainties, with expectations of continued support from central bank purchases [3][40] 4. Energy Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals Tracking (a) Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate has slightly decreased, with production expected to decline due to cost pressures [5][12] 5. Industry Weekly Dynamics - The report indicates that the overall market dynamics are influenced by geopolitical factors, particularly in the DRC, which is a significant contributor to global metal supply [2][3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of project construction in Jiangsu's offshore wind power and the planned trial operation of the southern regional electricity market by the end of June [1][2] - The report tracks significant price movements in coal and gas, with coal prices showing a decrease and gas prices also declining [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring monthly electricity prices and coal cost elasticity for thermal power companies [3] Summary by Sections Electricity Sector Data Tracking - As of March 14, 2025, the market price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port is 690 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.43% compared to March 7 [9] - The inventory of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port is 7.2 million tons, down 3.9% from March 7, but up 40.6% year-on-year [9] - The average utilization hours for thermal power equipment in 2024 are projected to be 4,400 hours, a decrease of 66 hours compared to the previous year [20] Hydropower Sector Data Tracking - On March 14, 2025, the inflow to the Three Gorges Reservoir is 0.85 million cubic meters per second, up 54.55% year-on-year, while the outflow is 0.78 million cubic meters per second, up 12.94% year-on-year [22] - The total installed capacity of hydropower in China is expected to reach 435.95 GW by the end of 2024, with an annual increase of 13.78 GW [24] - The hydropower generation in 2024 is projected to be 1,274.2 billion kWh, an increase of 10.7% year-on-year [28] Renewable Energy Sector Data Tracking - By the end of 2024, the total installed capacity for wind and solar power in China is expected to reach 520.68 GW and 886.66 GW, respectively, with new installations of 79.34 GW for wind and 277.17 GW for solar [33] - The price of domestic monocrystalline solar modules (PERC, 310W) is 0.70 RMB/watt, reflecting a 1.45% increase from March 7 [38] - The price of domestic lithium iron phosphate is 33,700 RMB/ton, down 23.00% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to March 7 [43] Natural Gas Sector Data Tracking - As of March 14, 2025, the average ex-factory price for domestic gas is 4,303 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.92% from March 7, while the average ex-factory price for imported LNG is 5,100 RMB/ton, down 0.71% [50] - The LNG import price as of March 13 is 13.45 USD/million BTU, equivalent to 3.41 RMB/cubic meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 54.46% [47]

证券研究报告 目 录 CATALOGUE 生产投资向好，地产成交回暖 地产 消费 价格 生产&基建 出行 04 05 01 02 03 00 政策 中观数据周报 投资要点 KEY POINTS 1 • 国内政策：专项债收储工作规范明确；发展消费金融提振消费。中央层面，国务院常务会议讨论通过《国务院2025年重点工作分工方 案》，李强总理在国务院第八次全体会议上强调更加注重加大政策力度和激发市场力量良性互动、协同发力。实施好更加积极有为的宏 观政策。产业层面，《促进环保装备制造业高质量发展若干意见》印发。金融财税层面，自然资源部就做好运用地方政府专项债券支持 土地储备有关工作出台通知，在发债要求、申报审核等方面做出明确要求。国家金融监督管理总局要求金融机构大力发展消费金融，助 力提振消费。 • 生产&基建：高频指标呈现向好态势。本周高炉、螺纹钢、涤纶长丝开工率持续提高，PTA、沥青开工率反弹，动力煤日耗相对稳定，但 建筑资金到位率仍处于低位。总体上看生产、基建相关高频指标有向好趋势。 • 地产：新房、二手房成交回暖。本周30城新房成交面积季节性回升，一线城市回升明显。9城二手房成交面积短暂回落后转向上行，体现 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the coal industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The coal prices in production areas are recovering, and there is anticipation for a rebound in non-electricity demand [1]. - The report highlights a seasonal decline in daily consumption of thermal coal [6]. - Coking coal and coke prices are under downward pressure [20]. - Steel production remains stable, but downstream steel prices are continuously declining [25]. - Futures prices for coking coal have slightly rebounded, and the price spread between coking coal and coke has narrowed [29]. - Shipping rates for both sea and land transport continue to rise [32]. Weekly Data Tracking - **Thermal Coal**: Production area coal prices are recovering, with a seasonal drop in daily consumption [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices are under pressure, with specific price data indicating fluctuations [20]. - **Downstream Changes**: Steel production is stable, but steel prices are declining [25]. - **Futures**: Coking coal futures prices have seen a slight increase, with a narrowing price gap [29]. - **Transportation**: Both sea and land shipping rates are on the rise [32]. Weekly Market Review (March 10-14, 2025) - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.39%, while the coal sector (CITIC) rose by 4.97% [34]. - Notable stock performances include Daya Energy (+33.57%) and Meijin Energy (+17.51%) [34]. Weekly Insights (March 9-15, 2025) - The report provides a detailed analysis of various coal companies, including their ratings, closing prices, and weekly performance [37]. - For instance, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry is rated "Buy" with a closing price of 20.20 and a weekly increase of 6.82% [37]. - China Shenhua is rated "Increase" with a closing price of 37.17 and a weekly increase of 3.57% [37]. - Other companies such as Yancoal and Huai Bei Mining also show positive weekly performance [37].

证券研究报告 | 海外宏观 【兴证宏观 | 经济脉搏】海外周报 2025.03.10-2025.03.16 风险偏好下降 分 析 师：.段 超（S0190516070004） 卓 泓（S0190519070002） 研究助理：王祉凝 报告日期：2025年3月16日 投资要点 KEY POINTS 美国：经济软指标继续降温但就业暂保持韧性，美元与美债利率继续震荡，关税不确定性压制美股。周三发布的美国CPI全面弱于预期后，市场对 滞胀担忧或有所缓和，推动美债利率、美元上涨；后半周公布的初请失业金人数下降，绝对水平仍较低，3月消费者信心指数继续下滑。2月末3月 初市场的衰退担忧暂缓，美元与美债利率横盘震荡；而关税不稳定性继续抑制风险偏好，美股下跌、黄金上涨，现货黄金一度涨破3000美元/盎司。 政策反复与政府裁员动摇居民收入和企业投资预期，美国经济短期内或继续偏弱运行，但由于失业率等硬指标仍存韧性，市场对下周FOMC会议上 降息预期微弱，关注新一期点阵图对未来通胀、利率走势的指引以及鲍威尔表态。财政方面，截至周五，众议院提出的新一版持续决议（用于将联 邦政府自由裁量支出维持到本财年结束，详参《 美国财政整顿 》）赶 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal prices in production areas have rebounded, while seasonal declines in daily consumption are observed. The industry is awaiting a recovery in non-electricity demand [6] - The prices of coking coal and coke are under downward pressure [20] - Steel production remains stable, but downstream steel prices continue to decline [25] - Futures prices for coking coal have slightly rebounded, and the price gap between coking coal and coke has narrowed [29] - Shipping rates for both sea and land transport continue to rise [32] Weekly Data Tracking - **Thermal Coal**: Production area coal prices have increased, with daily consumption showing seasonal decline [6] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices are under pressure, with specific price data indicating fluctuations [20] - **Downstream Changes**: Daily average pig iron production across 247 sample steel mills is stable, but steel prices are decreasing [25] - **Futures Market**: Coking coal futures prices have seen a slight increase, indicating a narrowing price gap [29] - **Transportation Situation**: Both sea and land freight rates are on the rise, reflecting increased transportation costs [32] Weekly Market Review - The report provides a performance overview of major indices and coal-related stocks, highlighting a 4.97% increase in the coal sector [37] - Specific stock performances include significant weekly gains for companies such as Daya Energy and Meijin Energy [37] Weekly Perspectives - The report includes detailed stock ratings and price targets for various coal companies, indicating a mix of "Buy" and "Increase" ratings [40]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector continues to show strong performance, with notable increases in stock prices for companies such as Kerry Properties (+7.5%), Swire Properties (+6.5%), and Link REIT (+2.1%) [3][4] - The report highlights a significant policy support from the central government aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including measures to lower reserve requirements and interest rates, as well as adjustments to housing purchase restrictions [3][40] - The report recommends focusing on real estate and property management sectors, specifically suggesting stocks like Beike, Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and others for investment [3][41] Market Overview - The main indices showed varied performance, with the Hang Seng Property Index declining by 0.9% this week, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.1% [7] - The cumulative sales area in 30 major cities reached 3.13 million square meters in March 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.3% [34] Company Performance - Notable performers in the domestic property sector include China Jinmao (+8.5%), Shenzhen Holdings (+5.9%), and Greentown China (+3.4%) [8][9] - In the property management sector, Greentown Service (+3.6%), New City Joy Service (+3.5%), and Greentown Management (+2.8%) showed strong performance [11][12] Stock Holdings and Short Selling - The report indicates an increase in Hong Kong Stock Connect holdings for companies like Greentown China and Sunac China, with respective increases of 0.50 percentage points [13][16] - The top three companies by short selling volume in the property management sector were Beike, Greentown Management, and China Overseas Development, with short selling ratios of 34.5%, 30.2%, and 27.6% respectively [19][20] Policy Support - The central government's recent meetings emphasized the need for stronger support for the real estate market, including a combination of fiscal and monetary policies aimed at stabilizing the market [3][40] - The report anticipates further policies to promote a stable and healthy development of the real estate market [40][41]