| 报告日期 | 2025 年 03 月 04 日 | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | 行业投资月度报告 | 医药生物 证券研究报告 相关研究 【兴证医药】政策持续支持创新药发 展，看好创新药、创新药产业链、AI 医 疗三大方向——医药行业周报 （2025.2.17-2025.2.21）-2025.02.24 【兴证医药】从 TEMPUS 出发，看 AI 赋能基因检测领域——医药行业周报 （2025.2.10-2025.2.14）-2025.02.17 【兴证医药】AI 有望赋能医疗领域，继 续看好创新药+创新药产业链——医药行 业周报（2025.2.3-2025.2.7）- 2025.02.11 分析师：孙媛媛 S0190515090001 sunyuanyuan@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：黄翰漾 投资要点： 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/20 ⚫ 2025 年 2 月 5 日至 2025 年 2 月 28 日，医药生物板块跑赢沪深 300 指数，医药生物 板块上涨 4.96%，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.91%。 ⚫ 相较于 2024 年，2025 年以来医药板块 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time [1]. Core Insights - The launch of the Xiangjie S9 extended range version is imminent, and profitability improvements are expected [3]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the new energy vehicle sector, leveraging its first-mover advantage and long-term accumulation to build core competitiveness [10]. - The market for mid-to-high-end passenger vehicles is expanding, with increasing market share for domestic brands [21][26]. Financial Overview - The company's total revenue is projected to grow significantly from 14,319 million yuan in 2023 to 77,788 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 82.6% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to improve from a loss of 5,400 million yuan in 2023 to a profit of 1,370 million yuan in 2026 [4]. - The gross margin is anticipated to turn positive by 2025, reaching 10.0% [4]. Brand Performance - The BEIJING brand shows stable sales, while the ARCFOX brand is expected to improve its profitability as sales increase [3][4]. - The Xiangjie brand, in collaboration with Huawei, is set to enhance its market presence with the upcoming S9 model, which is expected to address range anxiety and offer competitive pricing [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The retail price range for passenger vehicles is on the rise, with the market for vehicles priced above 300,000 yuan expanding [21]. - The share of domestic brands in the 300,000 to 500,000 yuan price segment has increased to 47% in 2024, driven by successful models from companies like Li Auto and AITO [26]. Sales Projections - The Xiangjie S9 extended range version is projected to sell 48,000 units in 2025 and 120,000 units in 2026 [3]. - The company anticipates that the introduction of new models in collaboration with Huawei will contribute to sales growth in the latter half of 2025 and into 2026 [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time [1]. Core Insights - The launch of the Xiangjie S9 extended range version is imminent, and profitability improvements are expected [3]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the new energy vehicle sector, leveraging its first-mover advantage and long-term accumulation to build core competitiveness [10]. - The market for mid-to-high-end passenger vehicles is expanding, with increasing market share for domestic brands [21][26]. Financial Overview - The company's total revenue is projected to grow significantly from 14,319 million yuan in 2023 to 77,788 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 82.6% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to improve from a loss of 6,738 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 1,370 million yuan in 2026 [4]. - The gross margin is anticipated to turn positive by 2025, reaching 10.0% [4]. Brand Performance - The BEIJING brand shows stable sales, while the ARCFOX brand is expected to improve its profitability as sales increase [3][9]. - The Xiangjie brand, in collaboration with Huawei, is set to enhance its market presence with the upcoming S9 model, which is expected to address range anxiety and offer competitive pricing [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The retail price range for passenger vehicles is on the rise, with the market for vehicles priced above 300,000 yuan expanding [21]. - The market share of domestic brands in the 300,000 to 500,000 yuan price range has increased to 47% in 2024, driven by successful models from companies like Li Auto and AITO [26]. Sales Projections - The Xiangjie S9 extended range version is projected to sell 48,000 units in 2025 and 120,000 units in 2026, contributing significantly to revenue growth [3][4]. - The company anticipates that the introduction of multiple new models in collaboration with Huawei will further boost sales in the coming years [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the real estate market, referred to as a "small spring," with significant year-on-year increases in both new and second-hand housing transactions [5][6] - Government policies are focused on stabilizing the real estate market, with specific measures to promote market recovery and enhance structural monetary policy tools [3][6] - The land market shows increased activity, particularly in core cities, with a notable rise in transaction amounts and premium rates [3][35] Monthly Performance Overview - In February 2025, the Shenwan Real Estate Index rose by 5.37%, outperforming the CSI 300, which increased by 1.91% [8] - The index remains at a low level, approximately at the 38th percentile since 2023 [8] Sales Performance - February sales data indicates a strong recovery, with second-hand housing transactions in 20 cities up by 23.7% year-on-year, and new housing transactions in 47 cities up by 15.7% [11][13] - Cumulatively, from January to February, second-hand housing transactions in 20 cities increased by 37.0% year-on-year [17] Land Market Activity - In February, the national residential land transaction area increased by 9% year-on-year, with transaction amounts up by 31% [35] - The premium rate for land transactions reached 12%, reflecting a 7 percentage point increase year-on-year [35][41] Policy Environment - The government work report emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, with three mentions of related measures [3] - Local policies are aimed at revitalizing existing land, providing purchase subsidies, and adjusting housing fund policies to support market stability [3] Company Performance - Quality real estate companies are actively acquiring land in core cities, with notable increases in land acquisition efforts from companies like China Resources and Greentown [6] - Despite improved land acquisition, the overall performance of the sector remains under pressure [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company, suggesting active monitoring of its performance as it emerges from a low point in its financial cycle [4]. Core Insights - Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. (HDSI) is a leading company in the field of motion control, specializing in harmonic drive gear systems known for their lightweight, compact size, and high torque capacity. The company has a long history dating back to the 1950s and continues to innovate with new products aimed at various applications, including humanoid robots and aerospace [4]. - The company's revenue for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024, is projected to be 55.8 billion JPY, with approximately 70% coming from gear sales. Despite facing a significant asset impairment loss of 28.4 billion JPY, the company aims for a target of 90 billion JPY in revenue by fiscal year 2026, with an operating profit margin of 15% [4]. - The robotics segment is the largest contributor to the company's revenue, with expectations of a stable growth rate of 4% CAGR in the industrial robot sector. The Chinese robotics market is experiencing rapid growth, with sales increasing from 140,000 units in 2019 to 277,000 units in 2023. The company has significantly increased its supply of gear systems to the local robotics market in China [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. is recognized as a global leader in the gear sector, with a diverse product range and a strong market presence in Japan, North America, and Europe [4]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 55.8 billion JPY for the fiscal year 2024, with a gross margin of approximately 28%. The company is recovering from a low point, with a positive trend in order data indicating a gradual increase in revenue [4]. Market Dynamics - The company’s revenue composition for fiscal year 2024 includes 31% from robotics, 23% from automotive, and 15% from semiconductors. The Chinese market is expected to see a substantial increase in demand for the company's products, with a 129.4% year-on-year growth in orders from China for the first three quarters of fiscal year 2025 [4][11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The real estate beta factor is more positive, suggesting a proactive layout in retail building materials [5] - Attention is drawn to the cement industry's bottom improvement, with price increases stabilizing profits during the off-season, indicating emerging bottom signals [7] - It is recommended to focus on high-dividend stocks for their allocation value [8] - The strategy for 2025 indicates a profit bottom and an impending supply-demand turning point [11] Market Performance - The report includes a section on market performance for the period from February 17 to February 21, 2025 [14] Price Changes - Cement prices showed fluctuations during the specified period, with detailed analysis provided [17] - The float glass and photovoltaic glass market experienced specific changes, particularly in the North China market, where prices were on a downward trend due to weak demand [26] - The domestic alkali-free roving yarn market saw a slight price increase, with the average price rising by 0.80% week-on-week and 22.11% year-on-year [33] Key Company Tracking and Industry News - Significant company announcements include shareholding changes and stock repurchase activities from various companies such as China Jushi and Wan Nian Qing [46][48] - Industry news highlights include the release of optimization policies for public housing funds and the impact of recent policy measures on the real estate market [50]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the recovery of terminal sales and suggests a bottom-up approach for investment in the home appliance sector, particularly focusing on the black and white goods segments [1][2] - It highlights the expected performance of leading companies in the black goods sector, such as Hisense Visual, and the white goods sector, including Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, and Midea Group, due to solid fundamentals and dividend attributes [2][20] - The report anticipates a catalyst for stock price increases in March and April, driven by terminal data or performance exceeding expectations [3] Summary by Sections Important Price Tracking - Copper price averaged 77,662 CNY/ton, up 0.89% month-on-month and 10.13% year-on-year [5] - Aluminum price averaged 20,688 CNY/ton, up 0.72% month-on-month and 8.04% year-on-year [5] - ABS price averaged 11,450 CNY/ton, down 0.95% month-on-month and up 6.02% year-on-year [5] - Hot-rolled coil price averaged 3,639 CNY/ton, down 0.58% month-on-month and down 11.74% year-on-year [5] - Panel prices for various sizes increased month-on-month, with 65" panels at 177 USD/piece, up 0.57% [6] Investment Recommendations - The report continues to recommend the black goods sector, particularly Hisense Visual, and suggests monitoring TCL Electronics for its potential growth driven by domestic demand and export opportunities [20] - It also recommends leading white goods companies such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, and Hisense Home Appliances due to their solid fundamentals and dividend characteristics [20] - Attention is drawn to the sales performance of new robotic vacuum models from companies like Roborock and Ecovacs in March 2025 [20]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report continues to favor the black appliance sector, recommending Hisense Visual as a leading player with established operational and performance turning points in Q4 2024, and highlights TCL Electronics for its strong domestic demand driven by trade-in programs and long-term overseas market share growth [2][21] - The report also recommends leading white appliance companies such as Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, Hisense Home Appliances, and Midea Group, which have solid fundamentals and attractive dividend attributes [2][21] - Attention is drawn to the sales performance of new robotic vacuum models from Stone Technology and Ecovacs in March 2025 [2][21] Summary by Sections Important Price Tracking - Copper prices increased by 0.89% to an average of 77,662 CNY/ton, while aluminum prices rose by 0.72% to 20,688 CNY/ton. ABS prices decreased by 0.95% to 11,450 CNY/ton, and hot-rolled coil prices fell by 0.58% to 3,639 CNY/ton [5][6] - Panel prices saw a rise, with global average prices for 65", 55", 43", and 32" panels at 177 USD, 127 USD, 66 USD, and 36 USD respectively, reflecting increases of 0.57%, 0.79%, 1.54%, and 1.41% [6] - The CCFI composite index, European index, and US West Coast index decreased by 3.16%, 5.42%, and 3.50% respectively [10][12] Investment Suggestions - The report suggests continuing to focus on domestic demand driven by national subsidies and high dividend stocks [21] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the sales performance of new products in the robotic vacuum segment [21]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a weak trend in pig prices and a decline in broiler chicken prices, indicating potential challenges in the livestock sector [3][4] - The report provides a detailed analysis of various agricultural commodities, including grains, oils, and livestock, with specific price movements and percentage changes noted [23][24] Market Overview - The report covers the recent market performance of the agricultural sector, noting a decrease of 0.35% in the agricultural index compared to the broader market [13] - Specific stock performances are detailed, with notable declines in companies like Wen's Foodstuffs and Zhengbang Technology, while companies like Juxing Agriculture showed positive growth [13][16] Price Trends - The report details the price trends for various commodities, including: - Domestic corn at 2151.43 CNY/ton, up 1.14% [23] - Domestic pig price at 14.51 CNY/kg, down 0.96% [24] - Broiler chicken price at 3.40 CNY/500g, up 9.68% [24] - The report also notes the price of domestic soybeans at 3950.00 CNY/ton, unchanged [23] Valuation Levels - The report provides valuation metrics, with TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) PE ratios noted at 22.41 for the agricultural sector and 11.39 for the broader market [16] Important Announcements - Key announcements from the industry include significant price changes and market performance metrics for various agricultural products, reflecting the current economic conditions [21]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a weak trend in pig prices and a decline in broiler chicken prices, indicating potential challenges in the livestock sector [3][4] - The report provides a detailed analysis of various agricultural commodities, including grains, oils, and livestock, with specific price movements and percentage changes noted [23][24] Market Overview - The report covers the market performance of the agricultural sector, noting a decrease of 0.35% in the agricultural index compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [13] - Specific livestock prices are detailed, with live pig prices at 14.51 yuan/kg, showing a decrease of 0.96% [24] - Broiler chicken prices are reported at 3.40 yuan per 500 grams, reflecting an increase of 9.68% [24] Price Trends - The report includes various price trends for grains, with domestic corn priced at 2151.43 yuan/ton, showing an increase of 1.14% [23] - Domestic soybean prices are noted at 3950.00 yuan/ton, remaining stable with no change [23] - The report also highlights fluctuations in edible oils, with soybean oil priced at 8408.00 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase of 0.10% [23] Individual Stock Performance - The report lists individual stock performances within the agricultural sector, with notable movements such as New Hope rising by 1.02% and *ST Aonong declining by 2.01% [13][16] - The performance of various companies in the livestock and feed sectors is analyzed, indicating mixed results across the board [13][16] Valuation Levels - The report provides valuation metrics, with TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) PE ratios for the agricultural sector at 22.41, compared to 11.39 for the broader market [16]