Industry Rating - The industry rating for the communication sector is "Recommended (Maintained)" [1] Core Views - Overseas computing power chains show significant cost-performance advantages [2] - Key investment points include performance metrics such as 1.50%, 1.12%, 1.64%, 2.38%, 300, 1.13%, 0.45%, and 2.02% for the period 01.06-01.12 [2] Weekly Investment Overview - CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technology is highlighted, with developments in 800G EML, 1.6T, 400G, and 3.2T expected by 2025 [3][9] - AEC and ASIC technologies are also mentioned in the context of CPO advancements [3][9] - CPO/OIO technologies are expected to evolve, with 1.6T and 3.2T being key milestones [9] Industry Dynamics - CES 2025 featured AI Project DIGITS, which includes AI PC developments and a significant AI-related metric of 3000 [9] - SpaceX's IFT-7 mission is noted, with a 25% increase in performance and a 3.1 metric [10] - Starlink's performance in 2024 showed a 33.9% increase, with a total of 2.89 and 2781.63 metrics [10] - C114 reported a 57.8% increase in performance from January to December 2024, with a total of 28943.08 [10] Major Events Reminder - Key events for communication industry companies from January 13 to January 19 include shareholder meetings for companies like Ovxian Communication, Eastsoft, Kinghelm, Broadex, and Chuangyi Technology [11] - Other notable events include the lifting of restricted shares for Chuangyi Technology and shareholder meetings for companies like Hytera, Youfang Technology, Feiling Kesi, and Dingxin Communication [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on long-term shareholder returns by changing the purpose of its share repurchase plan from employee incentives to share cancellation, which will enhance EPS and long-term investment value [5] - The company has a rich pipeline of games, with several major titles set to launch in 2025, including "Douluo Continent: Legend of the Evil" and "World of Zhigu" [5] - The company is leveraging AI technology to automate and streamline game development processes, enhancing efficiency and reshaping game production workflows [5] - The company's financial performance is expected to grow steadily, with projected EPS of 0.82/0.97/1.11 yuan for 2024-2026 and PE ratios of 15.8/13.3/11.6 times based on the closing price on January 10 [5] Financial Summary - The company's total revenue is expected to grow from 4295 million yuan in 2023 to 7152 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 15.1% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 1462 million yuan in 2023 to 2387 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 18.9% [5] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable, increasing slightly from 83.5% in 2023 to 84.5% in 2026 [5] - ROE is projected to decline from 27.9% in 2023 to 22.5% in 2026, reflecting a gradual decrease in profitability [5] Game Pipeline and AI Integration - The company has a strong game pipeline, with titles like "Douluo Continent: Legend of the Evil" and "World of Zhigu" set to launch in 2025 [5] - The company is integrating AI technology into game development, using its proprietary "Xingyi" model to automate and enhance various aspects of game production [5] Shareholder Returns - The company has been consistently paying dividends and has implemented a semi-annual cash dividend policy since 2023 [5] - The company's executives have committed to using their post-tax dividend income to increase their holdings in the company over the next five years [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that multiple regions are implementing home improvement subsidy policies, which are expected to boost sales in the home furnishing sector. The central government has allocated 81 billion yuan for the 2025 consumer goods replacement program, with the subsidy scale potentially doubling from last year to reach 300 billion yuan [4][6] - The paper industry is entering an upward cycle of prosperity due to improved supply-demand dynamics and successful price increases for pulp and paper products. The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the industry [4][6] - The report also discusses the packaging sector, noting the progress of Oricain's acquisition of COFCO Packaging and the potential benefits from new subsidies for digital products [4][6] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The light industry sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 2.2% compared to a 1.1% drop in the CSI 300 index. The home furnishing, paper, packaging, and cultural products sectors experienced varying declines [6][8] 2. Paper Sector Tracking - Raw material prices showed mixed trends, with domestic needle pulp averaging 5,920 yuan/ton (up 0.6% week-on-week) and domestic broadleaf pulp at 4,625 yuan/ton (up 0.8% week-on-week). The average price of waste paper was 1,560 yuan/ton (down 1.6% week-on-week) [12][19] - Finished paper prices included corrugated paper at 2,927 yuan/ton (down 0.4% week-on-week) and white cardboard at 4,300 yuan/ton (unchanged) [20][24] 3. Home Furnishing Sector Tracking - The report notes a significant drop in new home transactions, with major cities seeing a 30.49% decrease in sales week-on-week. However, the implementation of subsidy policies is expected to improve performance in the home furnishing sector [29][33] 4. Other Sector Tracking - The report mentions the increase in Brent crude oil prices to $77.24 per barrel (up 2.48% week-on-week) and the decline in polyethylene prices to 7,920 yuan/ton (down 2.70% week-on-week) [39][40]

Industry Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly highlighting opportunities in aluminum, copper, and gold [1][4][12] Core Views - Aluminum prices are rising, and the profitability of electrolytic aluminum is recovering due to declining costs and inventory reduction [1] - Copper prices are expected to rise further due to strong inflation expectations and supportive macroeconomic policies [2][3] - Gold prices continue to trend upward, supported by geopolitical tensions, inflation expectations, and central bank purchases [4] - Lithium carbonate prices have increased slightly, but the market remains under pressure due to oversupply [5] Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 2.00% during the reporting period, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.34 percentage points [21] - Rare earth and magnetic materials sectors showed the largest gains [23] Industrial Metals Aluminum - Aluminum prices increased by 1.54% on SHFE and 2.99% on LME [24] - Electrolytic aluminum inventories decreased by 5.73% on SHFE and 1.31% on LME [25] - Electrolytic aluminum profitability improved, with ton profits rising [45] Copper - Copper prices rose by 3.22% on SHFE and 2.02% on LME [24] - Copper inventories decreased by 5.41% on SHFE and 1.99% on LME [25] - Copper prices are expected to benefit from inflation expectations and supportive policies [3] Zinc - Zinc prices fell by 2.11% on SHFE and 1.00% on LME [24] - Zinc inventories decreased by 10.78% on SHFE and 7.06% on LME [25] Tin - Tin prices increased by 3.32% on SHFE and 3.34% on LME [24] - Tin inventories remained stable, with a slight increase in social inventories [36] Precious Metals Gold - Gold prices rose by 2.44% on COMEX and 1.19% on SHFE [74] - Central banks continued to purchase gold, with China adding 10 tons in December 2024 [43] - Gold ETF holdings increased, reflecting strong investor interest [44] Silver - Silver prices increased by 3.99% on COMEX and 2.19% on SHFE [74] - Silver ETF holdings declined, indicating weaker investor sentiment compared to gold [45] Energy Metals and Rare Earths Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased slightly, with battery-grade lithium carbonate rising by 1.07% [112] - Lithium inventories grew, and production is expected to decline in January 2025 [67][71] Cobalt and Nickel - Cobalt prices remained stable, while nickel prices showed mixed trends [112] - Nickel production is expected to decline in January 2025, with a 2.6% drop in nickel pig iron operating rates [76] Rare Earths - Rare earth prices remained strong, with some products like terbium oxide increasing by 2.65% [90] - Rare earth magnet exports from China reached 4,796 tons in November 2024 [94] Industry Developments - Zangge Mining is undergoing a potential change in control, with Zijin Mining Group as a potential buyer [177] - Northern Rare Earth adjusted its rare earth concentrate prices for Q1 2025 to 18,618 yuan/ton [178] - Xingye Silver-Tin's subsidiary received approval for a mining expansion project, increasing capacity to 2.97 million tons/year [179] - Alloy Investment expects a significant increase in net profit for 2024, driven by new energy projects [181]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Finance has set a "very positive" fiscal policy direction for 2025, and BASF has announced a price increase for TDI, indicating potential recovery opportunities for leading companies in the chemical sector [2] - The chemical industry is currently facing widespread losses, but with the upcoming traditional peak season after the Spring Festival and supportive fiscal policies, product profitability and company valuations are expected to gradually recover [2] - The rapid development of the AI industry is creating investment opportunities in the chemical sector, particularly for companies involved in advanced materials [2] - The first quarter of 2025 is seeing an increase in long-term contract prices for refrigerants, and external sales of air conditioning units are experiencing significant year-on-year growth [2] - International oil prices are rising due to cold weather and geopolitical tensions, which may lead to seasonal fluctuations [2][3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The chemical industry is under pressure, but fiscal policy support and price adjustments from major companies like BASF are expected to improve profitability [2] - The AI industry's growth is driving demand for chemical materials, presenting opportunities for companies like Juhua Group and New Zhoubang [2] Price Trends - The price of hydrogen peroxide has increased by 19.6% to 610 RMB/ton, while caustic soda prices have risen by 7.4% to 870 RMB/ton due to supply constraints [10] - The price of acrylic acid has increased by 1.3% to 8000 RMB/ton, reflecting tight supply conditions [12] Recommendations - Focus on leading companies in the chemical sector such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy for their strong market positions and potential for recovery [2][4] - Growth-oriented new material companies like New Zhoubang and Ruifeng New Materials are recommended due to their significant growth potential in the context of domestic substitution [4]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating for the food and beverage sector is "Recommended (Maintained)" [1] Core Views - The report focuses on the feedback from liquor sales verification and the channel transformation in the snack industry [2] - Liquor giants are continuing their repayment processes, with a focus on verifying sales during the Spring Festival [2] - The repayment progress is slightly slower due to the early Spring Festival in 2025 and the ongoing pressure on sales [2] - The demand for liquor during the Spring Festival is relatively rigid, with a more concentrated consumption pattern during the peak season [2] - The 100-300 yuan price range shows stronger resilience [2] - Wuliangye has temporarily halted the supply of its eighth-generation Pu Wu due to low prices in some regions, aiming to stabilize the market and enhance brand value [2] - The WeChat Blue Packet test has expanded, bringing attention to the incremental growth in the snack channel [3] - WeChat and WeChat video accounts have significant potential for e-commerce development, with 13.82 billion monthly active users and a GMV of approximately 100 billion yuan in 2023 [3] - During the WeChat Blue Packet test, some merchants achieved impressive sales data, such as Three Squirrels, which saw a 500%+ increase in daily transactions and new customer acquisition on the first day of testing [3] - Luckin Coffee's gift set sales exceeded 10,000 units, with a 700% increase in visitor traffic on the day of the promotion [3] - Snack brands with strong brand power and high online operational capabilities are expected to benefit from the online gifting scenario [3] - In 2025, leading snack brands are expected to benefit from increased penetration in the vending system, new e-commerce traffic from WeChat stores, and supermarket product introductions [3] Key Recommendations - The food and beverage sector is expected to follow a two-step rhythm, with short-term expectations for fundamental improvements and a focus on industry leaders with high performance certainty and steadily increasing dividend rates [4] - In the liquor sector, the focus remains on high-quality leaders with strong performance certainty, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [4] - Other recommended liquor companies include Jin Shiyuan, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gongjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Jinhuijiu [4] - The beer sector remains a balanced offensive and defensive strategy, with recommended companies including Tsingtao Brewery and Yanjing Brewery [4] - In the food sector, the focus is on leading companies in high-quality tracks, with a ranking of dairy products > catering supply chain > snacks > soft drinks [4] - Recommended food companies include Yili, New Hope Dairy, Zhongju High-tech, Baoli Food, Ligao Food, Yanjin Shop, and Dongpeng Beverage [4] Market Performance Review - The food and beverage index fell by 3.46% this week (January 6-10, 2025), underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.33 percentage points [4] - Among the sub-sectors of food and beverages, only the soft drinks sector (+5.96%) saw an increase this week [4] - Since the beginning of 2025, the food and beverage index has fallen by 6.63%, ranking 18th out of 31 Shenwan primary sub-sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.48 percentage points [13] - The soft drinks sector has risen by 4.38% since the beginning of 2025 [13] Fund Holdings and Valuation - In Q3 2024, the fund holdings ratio for the food and beverage sector was 10.82%, a slight increase of 0.02 percentage points from Q2 2024 [21] - The liquor sector's fund holdings ratio was 9.96% in Q3 2024, up by 0.05 percentage points from Q2 2024 [21] - As of January 10, 2025, the food and beverage sector's P/E ratio (TTM) was 19.93 times, compared to the CSI 300's P/E ratio (TTM) of 11.71 times [24] - The liquor and beer sectors had P/E ratios (TTM) of 18.51 and 24.57 times, respectively, as of January 10, 2025 [24] Macro and Industry Data Tracking - In December 2024, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with the food, tobacco, and alcohol CPI remaining flat [27] - The PPI fell by 2.3% year-on-year in December 2024 [27] - In November 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year-on-year, with catering revenue, grain and oil food, and tobacco and alcohol increasing by 4.0%, 10.1%, and -3.1%, respectively [27] - In Q3 2024, the per capita disposable income and per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents increased by 4.5% and 5.0% year-on-year, respectively [27] Liquor Pricing - The price of Feitian Maotai fluctuated slightly, with the latest boxed and loose bottle prices at 2260 and 2230 yuan per bottle, respectively [37] - The price of Pu Wu (eighth generation) was stable at 950 yuan per bottle, while the price of Guojiao 1573 remained stable at 860 yuan per bottle [37] - In the sub-high-end category, the price of Jiannanchun Crystal Sword remained stable at 410 yuan per bottle, and the price of Qinghua 20 was 358 yuan per bottle [37]

Industry Rating - The industry rating for the building materials sector is **Recommended (Maintained)** [1] Core Views - The report highlights a **positive beta factor in the real estate sector**, suggesting an active layout in retail building materials as a strategic move [7] - The **cement industry** is showing signs of bottoming out, with price increases during the off-season to stabilize profits [8] - The report recommends focusing on **high-dividend stocks** for their allocation value, with a dividend yield of 43.86% in 2023 and 2.20% in 2024 [9] - The **2025 strategy** emphasizes that the profit bottom is near, and a supply-demand inflection point is approaching, with PE(TTM) at 33.82 and PB(MRQ) at 0.99 [10] Market Performance - The market performance for the period **250106-250110** shows mixed results, with some sectors experiencing declines while others show slight gains [13][18] Price Changes in Building Materials - **Cement prices** remained stable at 300 during the period 250106-250110 [16] - **Floating and photovoltaic glass prices** saw a slight increase of 0.6%, with a market share of 57.56% [18] - **Fiberglass prices** for 2400tex ranged between 3500-3600, with a price of 3730.00 and a growth rate of 18.45% [34] Regional Performance - **North China** showed an upward trend with good shipments and reduced inventory [23] - **East China** experienced narrow fluctuations, with some price adjustments due to supply constraints [23] - **Central China** remained stable, with some price adjustments to promote shipments [23] - **South China** saw stable operations with some price increases due to low inventory [23] - **Northeast China** experienced a price drop followed by an increase, with slower inventory accumulation [23] - **Southwest China** saw a slight decline in prices, with some discounts but limited price deviations [23] - **Northwest China** remained stable, with some price adjustments to stimulate shipments [23] Key Company Updates - **Ruite Technology** secured loans totaling 15 million RMB for business development [55] - **Senying Windows** plans to establish a subsidiary in Guangzhou with an investment of 1 million RMB [55] - **Tianshan Materials** saw the resignation of its chairman, with adjustments to the board's nomination committee [55] - **Kailun Holdings** announced a share transfer agreement involving 14.4852% of its total shares [55] - **Sichuan Jinding** plans to transfer 0.70% of its shares in Sichuan Kaiwu to Beijing Xinshan Digital Technology [55] - **Huali Group** appointed new executives, including a president and vice president [55] - **Gongchuang Turf** plans to use up to 1.2 billion RMB in idle funds for financial products [55] - **China Jushi** announced board nominations and a share repurchase plan [55] - **Longquan Pipe** repurchased 531,000 shares, accounting for 0.09% of its total shares [55] - **Zaisheng Technology** redeemed a structured deposit worth 50 million RMB [55] - **Sanxia New Materials** received a guarantee of up to 500 million RMB from its parent company [55] - **Hailuo New Materials** received a government subsidy of 3.5803 million RMB [55] - **Sanhe Pipe Pile** plans to increase its shareholding by 40-80 million RMB [55] - **Kesun Waterproofing** plans to use up to 1.3 billion RMB in idle funds for working capital [55] - **Guotong Pipe** announced the conclusion of a legal case with no adverse impact on profits [55] - **Hailuo Cement** provided a guarantee of 80 million RMB for its subsidiary [55] - **Wanli Stone** saw partial completion of its shareholding increase plan [55] Industry News - **Henan Province** continues to implement policies to stimulate the real estate market, including subsidies and tax incentives [58] - **State Council** issued guidelines to promote the high-quality development of government investment funds, focusing on exit strategies [58] - **Foreign Exchange Reserves** in China decreased by 63.5 billion USD in December 2024, but the overall economic situation remains stable [58] - **Zhengzhou** exceeded its target for housing replacement, with 10,816 units completed [58] - **Shanghai** saw strong real estate market performance in 2024, with new home sales reaching 540 billion RMB and second-hand home sales at 750 billion RMB [58] - **National Development and Reform Commission** and **Ministry of Finance** emphasized the importance of standard execution in the "Two New" sectors [58] - **State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission** highlighted the development of AI and the need for institutional reforms to adapt to AI advancements [58] - **Fujian Province** introduced measures to support the real estate market, including housing subsidies and increased housing provident fund support [58] - **Shanghai** saw a 21% increase in second-hand home transactions in 2024, with a total of 216,000 units sold [58] - **Real Estate Industry** bond financing in 2024 decreased by 18.4% compared to the previous year, with signs of recovery since September [58] - **Puyang City** introduced 20 measures to support the real estate market, including housing replacement policies and financial support [58]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral (Maintain) [2] Core Viewpoints - The core logic of the real estate sector is "stabilizing after a decline," indicating a long-term recovery in the fundamentals of the industry. The report suggests a favorable outlook for investment opportunities in the real estate sector [5][42]. - Key companies recommended for investment include Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and Binjiang Group, with a suggestion to pay attention to China Vanke [5][42]. Summary by Sections Market Information and Data Overview - The total transaction area for new and second-hand homes in 15 cities this week was 3.664 million square meters, down 16.5% week-on-week but up 19.4% year-on-year. For January, the overall transaction area is down 27.1% month-on-month but up 25.4% year-on-year [5]. - The report highlights that the transaction area for new and second-hand homes has shown a year-on-year increase of 25.4% since the beginning of 2025, with first, second, and third-fourth tier cities seeing increases of 54.1%, 11.4%, and 14.6% respectively [5]. Company Announcements - Poly Developments reported a signed area of 17.9661 million square meters for 2024, down 24.7% year-on-year, with a signed amount of CNY 323.029 billion, down 23.5% year-on-year [5]. - China Merchants Shekou achieved a signed sales area of 9.359 million square meters for 2024, down 23.5% year-on-year, with a signed sales amount of CNY 219.302 billion, down 25.3% year-on-year [5]. - China Vanke's subsidiary Wuhan Yutian has adjusted the financing maturity date to December 31, 2026, through a debt protection plan [5]. Policy and Market Support - The report emphasizes the need for clear policies regarding the acquisition of existing residential properties for affordable housing, with sufficient fiscal space and tools available to address current issues [5]. - The central bank has established a special re-lending facility for real estate companies, with CNY 209 billion utilized out of an 800 billion quota as of September 2024 [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to see upward trends, with a recommendation to increase allocation in automotive stocks [6] - The report highlights the continuation of the vehicle trade-in policy and the release of the new Tesla Model Y as significant developments [6] Summary by Sections 1. Current Developments - The vehicle trade-in policy is extended, and Tesla has launched a new version of the Model Y [6] 2. Sector Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.3% with a trading volume of 22,891 million - The automotive sector (SW Automotive) increased by 1.3% with a trading volume of 2,966 million - The passenger vehicle segment (SW Passenger Vehicles) decreased by 1.5%, while the commercial vehicle segment (SW Commercial Vehicles) increased by 1.3% [2] 3. Important News and Announcements - The report includes significant announcements and industry news, although specific details are not provided in the summary [6] 4. Monthly Industry Indicators Tracking - The report tracks monthly indicators for the automotive industry, including sales data and performance metrics, but specific figures are not detailed in the summary [6]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for stocks, indicating that the expected price increase will exceed 15% compared to the relevant market index over the next 12 months [26]. Core Insights - The AI glasses market is expected to see significant growth, with global shipments projected to reach 12.8 million units in 2025, a 26% increase year-on-year, while China's market is expected to grow by 107% to 2.8 million units [2][18]. - The demand for AI capabilities is driving a surge in computing power requirements, particularly in servers and AI chips, with recommendations to focus on companies like Huadian Technology and Deep South Circuit [19]. - The semiconductor industry is set to initiate 18 new wafer fabrication projects in 2025, with a focus on domestic production and self-sufficiency, highlighting the importance of local manufacturers [22]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From January 6 to January 10, the overall market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.34%. However, the electronic industry index rose by 1.86%, ranking 4th among 31 sectors [5][6]. Sub-industry News Semiconductor - NVIDIA announced the launch of the Blackwell GPU, which is expected to significantly enhance AI and HPC capabilities, with all major cloud service providers adopting the new system [19]. - The semiconductor industry anticipates a 6.6% annual growth rate, with advanced node capacity expected to grow at 16% annually [10][22]. AI, IoT, and Automotive Electronics - Major companies are increasingly investing in AI glasses, with a notable presence at CES 2025, indicating a burgeoning market [2][18]. Mobile & 5G - The global smartphone panel shipment is projected to reach 2.27 billion units in 2024, reflecting an 8.7% year-on-year growth, driven by strong demand from major brands [15]. LCD and LED - LG Display plans to produce four-layer stacked W-OLED panels to enhance brightness, marking a significant advancement in display technology [16]. Industry Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the potential of AI glasses and related technologies, recommending investments in companies that are well-positioned in this emerging market [2][18].