Export Performance - In September, exports grew by 2.4% year-on-year, significantly below the market expectation of 5.9% and down from 8.7% in August[1] - The decline in exports is attributed to extreme weather events, a high base from the previous year, and a continued downturn in global manufacturing demand, with the global PMI at 48.8[1][6] - Exports to emerging economies outperformed those to developed economies, with ASEAN exports decreasing by 3.5 percentage points, while exports to the EU dropped from 13.4% to 1.3%, a decline of 12.1 percentage points[9][10] Product Analysis - Mechanical and electrical products remain the largest contributors to export growth, with a growth rate of 3.8%, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall export growth[12] - High-tech product exports turned negative for the first time since Q2, with a year-on-year decline of 0.7%, dragging down overall export growth by 0.3 percentage points[12] - Labor-intensive consumer goods, such as footwear and ceramics, experienced negative growth, collectively reducing export growth by 1.4 percentage points[12] Import Trends - Imports grew by only 0.3% year-on-year in September, below the expected 1.2%, reflecting weak domestic demand and declining commodity prices[17][19] - The import growth of agricultural products like grains and soybeans was robust, with growth rates of 18.9% and 40.0%, respectively, driven by lower international prices[20] - High-tech product imports maintained strong growth, with integrated circuit imports increasing by 11.2%[20] Future Outlook - Export growth is expected to remain low, with external demand signals indicating a continued weakening trend, while domestic policies may provide some support if effectively implemented[23][24] - The balance of opposing forces suggests that exports may achieve small single-digit growth in the near term[23]

Economic Overview - Japan's economy has undergone significant changes since 1946, experiencing phases of prosperity, decline, and recovery, categorized into six stages[6] - The period from 1946 to 1973 saw Japan's GDP growth averaging around 10% annually, with a capital accumulation rate peaking at 39%[12][14] - The "Lost Two Decades" from 1990 to 2011 resulted in stagnant economic growth, with the Nikkei 225 index declining by 11.04% from 1990 to 1997[43][75] Policy and Economic Strategies - The "Abenomics" policy from 2012 to 2019 included aggressive monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and structural reforms, leading to a recovery in the stock market with a growth rate of 12.46%[82] - Japan's government debt reached approximately 227% of GDP by 2023, reflecting extensive fiscal measures to stimulate the economy[88] Market Trends and Asset Performance - From 1974 to 2023, the annualized return for Japanese stocks (Nikkei 225) was 4.19%, while U.S. stocks (S&P 500) led with 8.09%[95] - In the period from 2020 to 2023, Japanese stocks achieved a cumulative return of 9.06%, benefiting from a recovery in the economy and favorable monetary policies[93] External Influences - The COVID-19 pandemic prompted a significant influx of foreign direct investment into Japan, with net inflows of $626 billion in 2020, $352 billion in 2021, and $493 billion in 2022[89] - Japan's economic recovery post-pandemic has been supported by stable PMI readings, indicating a resilient manufacturing and service sector[88] Risks and Future Outlook - Potential risks include discrepancies in economic data, underperformance of the Japanese economy, and unexpected macroeconomic policy changes[98] - The Bank of Japan's recent shift to a tightening monetary policy may impact market dynamics, necessitating close monitoring of economic indicators and corporate performance[97]

证券研究报告 行业研究｜电子 2024 年 10 月 23 日 射频前端行业深度：增长动能形成合力，国产替 代条件充足 证书:S1320523080001 [Table_Author] 刘浩 分析师 王竞萱 研究助理 Email:liuhao3@lczq.com Email:wangjingxuan1@lczq.com | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades TPG RE Finance Trust (TRTX) to Overweight from Neutral, indicating a positive outlook due to a de-risked portfolio and significant discount to book value [3][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for Residential Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (MREITs) as they are expected to benefit from falling interest rates and potential spread tightening, while caution remains for Commercial MREITs due to elevated credit risks [12][13]. - Residential MREITs are positioned to see immediate benefits from lower rates, with a positive duration gap that could enhance book value, although prepayment risks are increasing [2][12]. - Commercial MREITs are expected to experience a slower recovery, facing challenges with troubled loans and non-accruals, which may keep valuations under pressure [2][13]. Summary by Sections Rating Changes - TRTX has significantly de-risked its portfolio, achieving a 100% performing status, and is trading at a discount to book value, leading to an upgrade to Overweight [3][11]. Sector Summary - Residential MREITs are viewed positively due to their long-duration assets and potential for income from dividend yields, while Commercial MREITs face a cautious outlook with risks outweighing potential value [12][13]. Coverage Summary - AGNC maintains an Overweight rating as it is expected to recover book value with a focus on Agency MBS, while NLY also maintains Overweight due to favorable positioning for lower rates [14][15]. - TWO is rated Neutral due to lingering uncertainty affecting its price-to-book value multiple, while ABR is rated Underweight due to a premium to book value amidst a deteriorating credit environment [18][19]. Company Previews – Residential MREITs - AGNC reported a tangible book value per share (TBVPS) of $9.48, exceeding consensus estimates, and faces elevated prepayment risk due to its high-coupon MBS concentration [41][42]. - NLY also reported a TBVPS of $21.00, benefiting from spread tightening, and is expected to maintain a mid-teens dividend yield supported by levered returns on Agency MBS [43][44].

Inflation Data - The U.S. CPI for September increased by 2.4% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.3% and down from the previous 2.5%[1] - Core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.2% and matching the previous value[1] - The CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, in line with the previous month and above the expected 0.1%[1] Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 254,000 jobs in September, significantly higher than the expected 150,000 and the previous month's 159,000[1] - The unemployment rate fell by 0.1% to 4.1%, better than the expected 4.2%[1] - The labor force participation rate remained stable at 62.7%[1] Market Implications - The strong employment data has led the market to rule out the possibility of a 50 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, with expectations shifting to two 25 basis points cuts in November and December[2] - The CPI data further reinforced the market's expectation of a gradual rate cut path by the Federal Reserve[2] Risks - There are risks associated with unexpected changes in the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy that could impact these forecasts[2]

Deutsche Bank Research Distributed on: 11/10/2024 20:36:08 GMT 7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa Fed Watcher: Officials support gradual easing path after close call in September Amy Yang Economist (+1) 212 250 9959 | amy.yang@db.com Matthew Luzzetti Chief US Economist (+1) 212 250 6161 | matthew.luzzetti@db.com Brett Ryan Senior Economist (+1) 212 250 6294 | brett.ryan@db.com Justin Weidner Economist (+1) 212 469 1679 | justin-s.weidner@db.com Avik Chattopadhyay Research Associate avik-a.chattopadhyay@db.com October 11, 202 ...

宏观经济点评 证券研究报告 2024年10月16日 9月金融数据点评:政策转向后,金融数据有望企稳 沈夏宜 分析师 Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 证书:S1320523020004 陈国文 分析师 Email:chenguowen@lczq.com 证书:S1320524070001 投资要点: 社融存量增速再度回落。9月新增社融 3.76 万亿,同比少增 3692 亿,社 融存量增速环比回落 0.1 个百分点至 8.0%。结构上看,社融仍然延续了 5 月以来的结构特征,政府债同比多增是主要支撑项,人民币贷款同比少增 是主要拖累项。 企业、居民部门信贷同比均少增。企业部门新增短贷 4600亿,同比少增 1086 亿;新增中长期贷款 9600亿,同比少增 2944 亿;从企业短贷来 看,前期"挤水分"影响或边际减弱。9月企业短贷新增规模已修复至过 去五年均值。从企业中长贷来看,当前企业中长期融资需求仍然偏弱。 "融资-投资-生产-销售"的正循环仍然不畅。居民部门新增短期贷款 2700 亿,同比少增 515 亿;新增中长期贷款 2300 亿,同比少增 3170 亿。从居民短贷来看,当月居民短贷 ...

M Global Idea Podcast | Thoughts on the Market October 7, 2024 08:42 AM GMT Why the Fed's Next Move May Matter Less Following the US Federal Reserve's September rate cut, labor data may have more impact on markets than further cuts. Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research, explains why. Play Audio Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ Andrew Sheets Strategist Andrew.Sheets@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2905 Collection Podcast Series Today's VVebcasts Your daily guide to all Morgan Stanley Researc ...

Summary of the Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call pertains to the US Microeconomic sector, involving economists from a team led by Abigail Watt Core Points and Arguments - The call is structured as a weekly update, indicating a regular analysis of microeconomic trends in the US [1] - Abigail Watt introduces the session and mentions the presence of colleagues Alan Depmeister and Sonia Meskin, suggesting a collaborative approach to the analysis [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - A reminder for participants to submit questions online indicates an interactive element to the call, which may provide additional insights during the discussion [1]

美联储降息落地，四季度债市怎么投 20241009 摘要 • 华富恒稳纯债基金是一款追求低波动、稳健收益的纯债基金，其核心投资 策略是久期和流动性管理，并在动态避险的基础上追求适度收益。该基金 不参与股票、权证及可转换债券的投资，专注于固定收益类资产，以远离 股市波动。 • 该基金适合风险等级为 R2 及以上的投资者，业绩比较基准为中证全债指 数收益率。截至 2023 年 8 月 31 日，华富恒稳纯债 A 今年以来回报率为 3.26%，近一年回报率为 4.53%，大幅超越同期中证存在债券型基金指数， 并在银河同类排名中位列前 16%。 • 近年来，由于权益市场波动加剧，市场风险偏好显著下降，存款利率持续 下行，定期存款吸引力减弱，稳健投资者可选择空间减少，但对低波动、 稳健类产品需求旺盛。纯债基金因其低波动、稳定收益特性受到关注。 • 数据显示，自 2007 年以来，万德短期和中长期纯债基金指数连续 17 年实 现正收益，总体收益曲线长期向上。因此，这类风险可控且正收益概率高 的资产成为了许多投资者的重要选择。 • 根据万德数据，截至2023年6月30日，短期纯债基金融资规模达到14,954 亿元，比上一季 ...