证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 02 月 17 日 美国 1 月宏观月报：数据强劲、联储鹰派，降息仍需等待 [Table_Author] 沈夏宜 分析师 杨见一 研究助理 证书:S1320523020004 Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com Email:yangjianyi@lczq.com 核心观点： 1 月美国 CPI 同比 3.0%，核心 CPI 同比 3.3%，均超过预期。美国 1 月 整体 CPI 同比增速 3.0%，预期 2.9%，前值 2.9%；环比 0.5%，预期 0.3%，前值 0.4%。核心 CPI 同比 3.3%，预期 3.1%，前值 3.2%；环比 0.4%，预期 0.3%，前值 0.2%。1 月 CPI 同环比读数均超过预期，市场担 忧的再通胀风险得到数据的"验证"，使得 2025 年首次降息的预期再次延 后。1 月通胀表现超预期主要系预期中的油价、房价上升和预期外的二手 车、医疗商品、汽车保险等超级核心分项价格走高。此外，1 月数据季调 或未充分考虑企业调整价格的季节性因素，CPI 可能被高估。后续建议关 注价格调整结束后 2 月核心 CPI 是否仍然高企 ...

Inflation Data - The US CPI for January increased by 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.9% and the previous value of 2.9%[3] - Core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 3.2%[3] - Month-on-month CPI increased by 0.5%, against an expectation of 0.3% and a previous value of 0.4%[3] Employment Data - In January, the US added 143,000 non-farm jobs, lower than the expected 175,000 and the previous value of 307,000[4] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.1% to 4.0%, aligning with the previous expectation of 4.1%[4] - The Labor Department revised the non-farm employment data for November and December, increasing November's figure from 227,000 to 261,000 and December's from 256,000 to 307,000[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance indicates that inflation and employment data do not support an imminent rate cut, pushing back market expectations for the first rate cut in 2025 to October[5] - Market sensitivity to economic data remains high, influenced by the policies of the Trump administration regarding tariffs, immigration, and taxes[5] Risk Factors - Persistent inflation exceeding expectations and tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve pose risks to the economic outlook[6]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In January, new social financing (社融) reached 7.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 586.6 billion yuan year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate of 8.0%[10] - The increase in social financing was primarily supported by credit and government bonds, while foreign currency loans and undiscounted bank acceptance bills were the main drag[10] - Corporate short-term loans increased by 1.74 trillion yuan, up 280 billion yuan year-on-year, and medium to long-term loans increased by 3.46 trillion yuan, up 150 billion yuan year-on-year, ending a 10-month streak of year-on-year declines[2] Group 2: Resident Financing and Demand - Resident short-term loans decreased by 49.7 billion yuan, down 402.5 billion yuan year-on-year, while medium to long-term loans added 493.5 billion yuan, down 133.7 billion yuan year-on-year[2] - The decline in short-term loans is attributed to the "old-for-new" policy and reduced pressure from existing mortgage rates, leading to a decrease in liquidity needs[2] - In January, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased by 15% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities seeing declines of 3% and 29.1%, respectively[2] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Policy Outlook - M1 growth rate fell to 0.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while M2 growth rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 7.0%[3] - The decline in M2 is linked to adjustments in the equity market and a shift of funds from non-bank deposits back to wealth management products[3] - The timing for potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts or interest rate reductions may be delayed, as the central bank emphasizes the need for more signals indicating sustainable credit demand[5]

GDP Performance - The actual GDP growth rate for Q4 was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations, while the annual growth rate was 5.0%, achieving the set target[3] - The quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.3%, 4.7%, 4.6%, and 5.4%, indicating a "U"-shaped growth pattern throughout the year[12] - The trade surplus for 2024 reached $992.2 billion, the highest in nearly a decade, with the surplus accounting for approximately 23% of the annual GDP increase[13] Production Insights - The industrial capacity utilization rate rose significantly to 76.2% in Q4, the highest since March 2022[22] - Industrial value-added growth in December was 6.2%, returning to above 6% for the first time since April, driven by export demand[22] - Manufacturing value-added growth in December was 7.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month[22] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth for December was 2.2%, with an annual growth rate of 3.2%, slightly higher than the previous year[26] - Broad infrastructure investment growth slowed to 9.2%, while narrow infrastructure investment showed a slight recovery, indicating reduced fiscal pressure on local governments[26] - Real estate investment in December decreased by 13.3%, with an annual decline of 10.6%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector[29] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales growth in December rebounded to 3.7%, with a notable increase to 4.2% when excluding automobile sales[44] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted consumption, particularly in household appliances, contributing to a 13.1% growth in essential consumption[45] - The early timing of the 2025 Spring Festival led to increased pre-holiday purchasing, further supporting retail growth[44]

Group 1: CPI Overview - December US CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations, while core CPI rose by 3.2% year-on-year, also in line with forecasts[3] - Month-on-month CPI rose by 0.4%, consistent with expectations, and core CPI increased by 0.2%, also meeting forecasts[3] - The market's concerns over rising inflation have eased, leading to a shift in the anticipated first interest rate cut from July to June 2025[3][6] Group 2: Energy and Core CPI Insights - December energy CPI decreased by 0.5% year-on-year but increased by 2.6% month-on-month, with gasoline prices rising by 4.4%[4] - Core CPI unexpectedly slowed to 3.2% due to a decline in used car prices, with a month-on-month increase of 1.2%[5] - Housing CPI decreased to 4.6% year-on-year, but the month-on-month growth rate remained stable at 0.3%[5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the CPI data release, US stocks rebounded, and bond yields fell, boosting confidence in potential interest rate cuts[6] - Current CME data indicates a 25 basis point rate cut is now expected in June, compared to previous expectations of July[6] - Future risks include potential unexpected inflation performance and uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve monetary policy[7]

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit - The social financing scale increased by 2.86 trillion yuan in December, up from 2.33 trillion yuan in the previous month, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value of 7.8%[8][9] - The total amount of new loans in December was 990 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 180 billion yuan, indicating a low level compared to the same period in the past five years[21] - Government bond financing was the largest contributor to the increase in social financing, with an increase of 1.76 trillion yuan, up 828.8 billion yuan year-on-year[14] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Economic Indicators - M1 decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than the previous month's drop of 3.7%, indicating potential improvement in the liquidity of the real economy[34] - M2 showed a year-on-year growth rate of 7.3%, which is an improvement from the previous month's 7.1%[8] - The gap between M1 and M2 growth rates remains negative at -8.7%, but the decline has narrowed, suggesting that the activation of monetary supply still needs improvement[34] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose to support domestic demand and consumption, with potential further reductions in interest rates[3][41] - There are risks associated with the recovery of the economic fundamentals not meeting expectations and macro policies exceeding expectations[4][42] - The increase in fiscal deposits decreased by 16.725 trillion yuan year-on-year, indicating a significant drop of 7.504 trillion yuan, reflecting an active fiscal policy aimed at stimulating the economy[38]

Export Performance - December exports increased by 10.7% year-on-year in USD terms, exceeding market expectations of 7.1% and reaching a five-year high in month-on-month growth at 7.6%[10] - The trade surplus for December was approximately $104.84 billion, marking the first time in five years that it surpassed $100 billion, while the annual trade surplus reached $992.2 billion, the highest in nearly a decade[10] - Structural factors, particularly "export grabbing," significantly contributed to the robust export growth despite a global manufacturing downturn[10] Regional Contributions - Exports to the United States saw a substantial increase, with growth rising from 8.0% to 15.6% month-on-month, driven by "export grabbing" strategies[14] - The ASEAN region was the largest contributor to export growth, adding 3.1 percentage points, with Vietnam contributing 0.7 percentage points, equivalent to the contribution from the U.S.[15] Product Categories - Agricultural exports grew by 12.1%, up 4.7 percentage points from the previous month, contributing 0.4 percentage points to overall export growth, with seafood exports surging to 17.6%[18] - Mechanical and electrical products also rebounded, with a year-on-year growth of 12.1%, contributing 7.1 percentage points to export growth[18] - High-tech product exports slowed, with a growth rate of 4.3%, contributing 1.1 percentage points to overall exports[18] Import Trends - December imports increased by 1.0% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations of a decline, and saw a month-on-month growth of 7.5%, the highest in five years[23] - The recovery in import growth was supported by a rebound in mechanical and high-tech product imports, which grew by 6.7% and 12.8%, respectively, offsetting declines in agricultural and crude oil imports[23] Future Outlook - Short-term export resilience is expected to continue due to the "export grabbing" window before tariff policies are implemented, particularly in the first quarter of 2025[30] - Long-term export pressures may arise from slow global manufacturing recovery, diminishing marginal effects of "export grabbing," increased trade barriers from U.S. tariff policies, and higher base effects impacting growth rates[30]

Employment Data - In December, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 256,000, exceeding the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 165,000[1] - The unemployment rate stood at 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.2%[1] - The labor force participation rate remained stable at 62.5%[1] Employment Sector Performance - Service sector jobs accounted for the majority of new employment, with 231,000 jobs added in December, up from 178,000 in November[2] - Goods-producing employment saw a decline of 8,000 jobs, primarily due to a drop in manufacturing jobs, which fell by 13,000[2] - Government employment increased by 33,000, remaining relatively stable compared to previous months[2] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market showed resilience, with an average monthly increase of 197,000 jobs in 2024, despite signs of weakening[1] - The labor supply gap widened to 977,000 in November, attributed to a potential outflow of foreign labor[2] - The tightening of immigration policies under the Trump administration is expected to further strain the labor supply, particularly in low-end service jobs[2] Monetary Policy Outlook - Following the employment data release, market expectations indicate a low probability of interest rate cuts in January, with only one anticipated cut of 25 basis points for the entire year of 2025[3] - Concerns persist regarding the adequacy of the Fed's rate-cutting path and the potential for increased inflation due to policy changes[3] - The overall stability of the employment market is expected, but risks of structural volatility remain elevated[3]

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit Trends - In November, new social financing amounted to 2.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 119.7 billion yuan, with the social financing stock growth rate remaining stable at 7.8%[23] - The corporate sector's short-term loans decreased by 10 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 180.5 billion yuan, indicating weak financing demand[35] - The government bonds issued in November increased by 1.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 158.9 billion yuan, primarily driven by special refinancing bonds[26] Group 2: Household Loan Performance - Short-term loans for households decreased by 37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 96.4 billion yuan, reflecting a drop in consumer willingness[35] - New medium- and long-term loans for households reached 300 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.9 billion yuan, indicating a recovery trend in real estate sales[35] - The total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities reached 11.71 million square meters in November, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%[35] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Market Dynamics - M1 growth rate improved, with a month-on-month increase of 2.4 percentage points, narrowing the decline to -3.7%[47] - M2 growth rate slightly decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 7.1%, influenced by market volatility and a shift of funds from non-bank deposits to wealth management products[47] - Non-bank deposits increased by 180 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.39 trillion yuan, indicating a significant reduction in overall liquidity[47]

Export Performance - In November, exports maintained resilience with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.7%, down from 12.7% in October, but still above the annual average level[21] - The trade surplus expanded to $97.44 billion in November, indicating strong export performance despite a high base effect from last year[21] - Exports to the US grew by 8.0%, remaining stable compared to the previous month, supported by a "grab export" effect[29] Import Trends - Imports fell by 3.9% year-on-year in November, a decline from the previous month's -2.3%, primarily due to the depreciation of the RMB and falling commodity prices[38] - Significant declines were observed in agricultural imports, particularly grains and soybeans, which dropped by 35.4% and 10.0% respectively[38] - The import growth rate for high-tech products further slowed, with integrated circuit imports experiencing a notable decline of 6.7%[38] Sector Analysis - The automotive export sector saw a significant downturn, with a year-on-year decline of 7.7%, marking the first negative growth this year, likely due to increased tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles by the EU[33] - Consumer electronics, particularly computers and tablets, showed strong export growth at 16.2%, contributing positively to the overall machinery and electronics export performance[33] Future Outlook - Short-term export resilience is expected to continue, bolstered by ongoing US inventory replenishment and a global interest rate cut cycle that may enhance external demand[45] - Long-term export performance will depend on the implementation of tariff policies by major economies, particularly the US[45]