华友钴业|603799|能源金属 2024 年 06 月 26 日 证券研究报告 华友钴业首次覆盖:长坡厚雪,穿越周期 [Table_Author] 刘浩 分析师 Email:liuhao3@lczq.com 证书:S1320523080001 投资要点: 铜钴传统业务稳固,为公司其他业务开展提供稳定现金流,是公司锂电材 料一体化的源头。多年来公司深耕刚果金优质铜钴资源,自有PE527铜钴 矿为公司生产运营提供低成本、稳定可靠的原料保障。作为国内最大的钴 产品供应商,公司钴行业龙头地位稳固。在 2024 年铜产品价格处于高位 的背景下,铜钴业务有望维持稳定增长。 镍、锂资源业务加速布局,打造公司第二增长曲线。公司自 2018 年开始 在印尼布局以湿法 HPAL 工艺为主的红土镍矿冶炼项目,公司已有和规划 在建的产能合计达 64.5 万吨。继华越 6 万吨湿法项目和华科 4.5 万吨火法 项目陆续达产并超产后,华飞 12 万吨湿法项目于 23 年底达产,有望为 2024 年公司业绩增长提供显著增量。公司自 2021 年收购津巴布韦前景锂 矿公司后,Arcadia 锂矿项目迅速推进,已于 2023 年 3 月投料 ...

Economic Performance - GDP growth in Q1 2024 reached 5.3%, slightly up from 5.2% in the previous year, exceeding market expectations[52] - Industrial production showed strong performance with an industrial value-added growth rate of 6.2% from January to May 2024[52] - Manufacturing investment grew by 9.6% in the same period, significantly higher than the previous year's levels, contributing 57.3% to fixed asset investment growth[52] Export Trends - Export growth has exceeded expectations, supported by a recovery in global demand as major economies begin to lower interest rates[55] - In April 2024, total exports reached $292.4 billion, and in May, they increased to $302.3 billion, indicating a recovery compared to the same period in previous years[42] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment totaled 18.8 trillion yuan from January to May 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%[52] - Infrastructure investment growth is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year due to increased fiscal support, despite a current slowdown[52] Fiscal Policy - Central government expenditure growth was robust at 10.2% from January to May 2024, while local government expenditure growth lagged at 2.4%[10] - The issuance of special bonds is anticipated to accelerate, providing significant support for fiscal expansion in the latter half of the year[10] Credit and Monetary Policy - Credit growth is weakening, with a decline in the effectiveness of traditional lending practices, leading to a shift towards fiscal financing as the main driver of credit expansion[36] - M1 and M2 growth rates are both declining, indicating lower liquidity in the economy[36]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to continue its steady growth in 2024, driven by multiple factors including policy support, stable production and sales, and growth in exports [3][4] - The automotive sector has shown better elasticity compared to the overall market, with significant excess returns since the second half of 2009 [7][9] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is rapidly increasing, with domestic brands gaining market share and competitive strength [3][17] Summary by Sections 1. Automotive Sector Performance Review - The automotive sector has achieved a growth rate of +445.70% since the base period (December 30, 1999) compared to +173.07% for the CSI 300 index [7] - From early 2023 to June 2024, the automotive sector's growth was +0.75%, outperforming the CSI 300, which declined by -7.54% [9] - Key periods of outperformance were noted during 2023, particularly due to favorable policies and strong sales of new energy vehicles [9][11] 2. Influencing Factors 2.1 Policy Support - A series of supportive policies have been implemented to boost the automotive industry, including incentives for trade-ins, purchase subsidies, and the removal of purchase restrictions [13][14] - The pace of policy implementation has accelerated in 2024, laying the groundwork for further growth in the automotive market, especially for NEVs [13][14] 2.2 Production and Sales - In 2023, total automotive production and sales exceeded 30 million units, marking a historical high, with NEVs accounting for a significant portion of this growth [17] - The forecast for 2024 anticipates total automotive sales reaching 31 million units, with NEV sales projected at 12.4 million units, reflecting a penetration rate of 40% [17][20] 2.3 Export Growth - Domestic brands are increasingly expanding their overseas presence, supported by favorable policies and improved product competitiveness, with expectations for continued growth in automotive exports in 2024 [3][4] 3. Automotive Industry Chain Development - The battery market is expected to see increased concentration, with stable prices for various materials throughout the year [5] - The construction of charging infrastructure is anticipated to accelerate to support the rapid development of NEVs [5] 4. Investment Recommendations - The automotive sector is expected to outperform the market in 2024, making related ETF funds worthy of attention [3][4] - When selecting automotive ETFs, factors such as fund size, liquidity, and constituent characteristics should be considered [3][4]

受高基数影响，财政收入同比增速为负，税收收入降幅扩大。1 至 5 月一 般公共预算收入同比增长-2.8%，负增主因在于去年出台的缓税减税政策。 一般公共预算收入完成进度为 43.3%，五年维度看处于低位。 中央支出增速维持高位，基建类支出增速高位下降。1 至 5 月一般公共预 算支出同比增速为 3.4%，与前值比增速下降 0.1pct。一般公共预算支出完 成进度为 37.9%，五年维度看表现中性。一般公共预算赤字使用率为 18.6%，五年维度看表现中性偏快。中央支出增速达到 10.2%，地方支出增 幅为 2.4%，中央支出发力明显，地方支出缓慢，拖累财政支出力度。基建 类支出增速继续处于高位，边际略有下降，说明财政政策持续发力。 相关报告 2024.06.16 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------|------------------------- ...

汽车行业 2024 年 5 月产销数据跟踪:总产销增速 略有放缓,新能源市场自主品牌延续亮眼表现 刘浩 分析师 Email:liuhao3@lczq.com 证书:S1320523080001 投资要点: 1.总产销:销量同环比小幅增长,累计增速略有放缓。5 月,汽车产销 237.2 万辆/241.7 万辆,同比+1.67%/+1.51%,环比-1.41%/+2.46%。1-5 月,汽 车累计产销 1138.4 万辆/1149.6 万辆,同比+6.5%/+8.3%,增速较 1-4 月 收窄 1.3pct 和 2pct。 2.出口:商用车表现亮眼,比亚迪延续高增长态势。5 月,汽车出口 48.1 万 辆,同比+23.97%,环比-4.56%;其中商用车出口 8.4 万辆,环比+13.51%, 同比+33.33%;新能源汽车出口 9.9 万辆,同比-9%,环比-13.3%,或因地 缘政治干扰(6 月 12 日欧盟宣布 7 月 4 日起对国内出口至欧盟地区的电动 汽车加征反补贴临时关税)。分车企来看,比亚迪(3.8 万辆,+2.45 倍)、 吉利(4.1 万辆,+78.26%)、长安(4.7 万辆,+62.07%) ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed Core Insights - The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index declined by 3.2 points to +1.3 in June, contrary to expectations for a slight increase, with mixed underlying components [4][6] - Housing starts fell by 5.5% to 1,277k (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in May, marking the lowest level since June 2020, against consensus expectations for a 0.7% increase [6][7] - Building permits decreased by 3.8% to 1,386k (saar) in May, also against expectations for a 0.7% increase, with declines in both multi-family and single-family permits [7] - Initial jobless claims slightly decreased to 238k for the week ended June 15, remaining elevated compared to the average level seen in the first five months of the year [8] - The Q2 GDP tracking estimate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points to +1.9% (quarter-over-quarter annualized rate) [8] Summary by Sections Manufacturing Sector - The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed a decline to +1.3 in June, with new orders and employment components increasing, while shipments decreased significantly [4][6] Housing Market - Housing starts dropped by 5.5% in May, with a notable decline in single-family starts contributing to the overall decrease, while multi-family starts also saw a decline [6][7] - Building permits also fell by 3.8% in May, with significant regional variations in permit issuance [7] Labor Market - Initial jobless claims showed a slight decline but remained above average levels, indicating ongoing labor market challenges [8] Economic Outlook - The Q2 GDP tracking estimate was adjusted downwards, reflecting a cautious economic outlook [8]

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Group 1: Social Financing and Credit Trends - In May, new social financing amounted to 2.07 trillion RMB, an increase of 513.2 billion RMB year-on-year, with the stock growth rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 8.4%[38] - The new RMB loans in May were 815.7 billion RMB, a decrease of 406.2 billion RMB year-on-year, indicating weak effective demand for credit[56] - Corporate short-term and medium-long term loans totaled 380 billion RMB in May, with year-on-year decreases of 155 billion RMB and 268 billion RMB respectively[39] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Deposit Trends - M1 growth rate fell by 2.8 percentage points to -4.2% in May, while M2 growth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 7.0%[45] - The total new RMB deposits decreased by 306.4 billion RMB year-on-year, with household and corporate deposits declining by 116.4 billion RMB and 660.7 billion RMB respectively[45] - Non-bank deposits increased by 837.9 billion RMB, and fiscal deposits rose by 526.4 billion RMB, indicating a shift towards wealth management products[45] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Risks - The economic recovery is at risk of falling short of expectations, particularly in the real estate sector, which may face increased risks[46] - The issuance of government bonds is expected to provide ongoing support for social financing in the second and third quarters[40] - The marginal effects of policies aimed at "squeezing water" from financial data may gradually weaken over time, but the pace of this change remains uncertain[40]

证书:S1320523020004 宏观经济点评 2024 年 06 月 14 日 [Table_Author] 沈夏宜 分析师 杨见一 研究助理 核心观点： 会议声明显示美国经济总体稳健扩张，就业良好，通胀改善。美联储主席 鲍威尔在讲话中表示，过去两年美联储在货币政策就业和物价双重目标方 面都取得了可观的进展。劳动力市场走向更好的平衡，每月新增就业强劲 同时失业率保持低位，大量数据显示就业情况已恢复至疫情前水平；PCE 通胀虽然依旧偏高但已完成从峰值的 7%到 2.7%的回落。"虽然 GDP 增 长从 2023 年 Q4 的 3.4%降至 2024 年 Q1 的 1.3%，但除去库存投资、政 府购买及净出口的私人购买增长 2.8%，基本保持了 2023 年下半年的水 平，意味着国内需求依旧强劲。"美国经济总体平稳，下行风险较低。 经济预期摘要（SEP）上调了失业率及短期通胀预测，GDP 预测不变。 美联储 6 月更新的 SEP 上调了失业率预测，意味着美联储官员认为劳动 力市场的降温趋势开始显现。同时美联储小幅上调了 2024 年及 2025 年 的通胀预测，虽然对长期通胀回落至 2%比较有信心，但短期内通 ...

Employment Data - In May, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 272,000, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.0%[39] - The labor force participation rate decreased from 62.7% to 62.5%, with a drop of 250,000 in the labor force count[39] - Average hourly earnings rose by 4.1% year-over-year, with a nominal wage of $34.91, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 0.4%[8] Market Implications - The stronger-than-expected employment data has pushed back the market's expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 68.68% to 50.45%[42] - The likelihood of a November rate cut stands at 64.44%, indicating increased uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy[42] Labor Market Trends - The service sector added 204,000 jobs, with healthcare and education contributing 86,000 jobs, while leisure and hospitality saw a significant increase of 42,000 jobs[41] - Job openings in the U.S. are currently at a vacancy rate of 4.8%, indicating a cooling demand for labor[51] Economic Risks - The broader unemployment rate (U6) remains at 7.4%, with an increase in the number of individuals working part-time for economic reasons, suggesting a decline in job quality[55] - The overall labor market is showing signs of weakening, with indicators such as the total separation rate and voluntary quit rate remaining low, reflecting reduced labor market fluidity[55]