证券研究报告 2026 年 2 月 2 日 星期一 【A 股市场大势研判】 A 股大小指数分化，沪指跌近 1% 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4117.95 | -0.96% | -40.04 | | | 深证成指 | 14205.89 | -0.66% | -94.18 | | | 沪深 300 | 4706.34 | -1.00% | -47.53 | | | 创业板 | 3346.36 | 1.27% | 41.84 | | | 科创 50 | 1509.40 | 0.12% | 1.76 | | | 北证 50 | 1531.55 | -0.29% | -4.45 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信 | 3.44% | ...

2026 年 2 月 1 日 春季行情有望延续 投 资 2026 年 2 月份投资策略报告 投资要点： S0340523110001 电话：0769-22119276 邮箱：zenghao@dgzq.com.cn | 邮箱：zenghao@dgzq.com.cn 上证指数 4117.95 深证成指 14205.89 | 涨跌幅 3.76% 5.03% 证 券 研 究 | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | | 沪深 300 4706.34 | 1.65% | | 创业板指 3346.36 | 4.47% | | 北证 50 1531.55 | 6.33% | | 科创 50 1509.40 | 12.29% | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 上证指数月线走势 | 报 | | 告 | | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，Wind | | 上证指数月线走势 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 月度策略/A 股市场 分析师：费小平 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，Wind SAC 执业证 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [2][33]. Core Insights - The report highlights a competitive landscape in AI applications among major internet companies, with significant cash giveaways during the Spring Festival to attract users and enhance engagement with AI products. This marks a new phase in AI application competition, aiming for widespread adoption and commercialization [2][28]. - The computer industry index has shown a decline of 5.32% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.37 percentage points, ranking last among 31 sectors. However, it has increased by 9.08% in January, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.40 percentage points [10][20]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the SW computer sector stands at 59.79 times, placing it in the 96.66 percentile for the past five years and 91.70 percentile for the past ten years, indicating high valuation levels [20][22]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - The SW computer sector has experienced a two-week decline of 5.32%, ranking 31st among 31 sectors. In January, it rose by 9.08%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.40 percentage points [10][13]. Valuation Situation - As of January 29, 2026, the SW computer sector's PE TTM is 59.79 times, indicating a high valuation compared to historical data [20][22]. Industry News - Major announcements include Tencent's cash giveaway of 1 billion RMB for the Spring Festival, the launch of new AI models by Alibaba and ByteDance, and price increases for server CPUs by Intel and AMD due to high demand [22][24][25]. Company Announcements - Notable company forecasts include iFlytek expecting a net profit of 785 million to 950 million RMB for 2025, and SuperMap Software projecting a profit turnaround from a previous loss [25][26][27]. Weekly Insights - The report emphasizes the strategic moves by leading internet companies to capture AI traffic during the Spring Festival, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities related to AI applications and partnerships with leading firms [28][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the building materials industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [49]. Core Insights - The building materials industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with some consumer building materials products seeing price increases due to rising raw material costs [2][5]. - The cement sector is expected to show resilience in profitability, supported by significant infrastructure projects and urban renewal initiatives in 2026, despite a projected decline in cement production in 2025 [4][41]. - The glass and fiberglass sectors are undergoing structural adjustments, with a focus on high-end products and green transformation, while traditional segments face challenges from real estate market weaknesses [42][43]. - The consumer building materials segment is witnessing a trend of price stabilization and recovery, driven by demand for renovation and urban renewal, despite a slowdown in new construction [44]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry - In Q1 2026, cement companies are expected to implement significant production cuts, with an average shutdown period of 46 days nationwide, aimed at balancing supply and demand [4][41]. - The average cost of P.O42.5 bulk cement is reported at 197 RMB/ton, with a gross profit margin of 17% [4]. - The industry is projected to recover gradually, contingent on effective supply-side policies and infrastructure investment [4][41]. Glass and Fiberglass - The flat glass market is expected to stabilize as production capacity is controlled and environmental standards are enforced, although demand remains weak due to real estate sector challenges [42]. - The fiberglass industry is in a recovery phase, with a focus on eliminating inefficient capacity and enhancing production quality through technological upgrades [43]. Consumer Building Materials - Major companies like Keshun and Sankeshu have announced price increases due to rising costs of raw materials, indicating a trend towards price recovery in the sector [44]. - The demand for renovation and urban renewal is expected to drive growth, while leading companies are enhancing their market share through brand strength and service improvements [44]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields, including Shangfeng Cement, Tapa Group, and Huaxin Cement [4][45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][29]. Core Insights - The company is a global leader in integrated information and communication technology solutions, focusing on long-term investment and core technology control, while actively participating in the construction of intelligent computing infrastructure [6][14]. - The revenue structure is diversifying, with significant contributions from intelligent computing as a second growth curve, leading to a steady increase in revenue and profit [29][31]. - The global communication equipment market is expected to grow steadily, with a shift in operator capital expenditure from coverage to value extraction, highlighting the importance of 5G-A technology [39][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Communication Equipment Leader - The company has evolved from a follower to a leader in network connectivity and intelligent computing over its 40 years of operation, serving over one-third of the global population across more than 160 countries [14][17]. - The company maintains a leading market share in various communication device segments and is committed to R&D investment to capitalize on opportunities presented by the AI wave [6][14]. 2. Demand Differentiation and Competitive Elevation - The global communication equipment market is projected to grow at an annual rate of approximately 4%, reaching $121.7 billion by 2027 [39][40]. - Operators are transitioning from capital expenditure focused on coverage to operational expenditure aimed at value extraction, with 5G-A technology becoming a focal point for future investments [42][46]. 3. Intelligent Computing Infrastructure Breakthrough - The demand for high-level intelligent computing is rapidly increasing, with the global share of intelligent computing rising from 7% in 2018 to 62% in 2023, indicating a significant structural transformation in the computing industry [51][54]. - The company is enhancing its intelligent computing product development and market investment, which has become a core driver of overall revenue growth [51][54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [34]. Core Insights - The basic chemical index rose by 6.2% in the last two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.1 percentage points, ranking 5th among 31 industries [13][14]. - Year-to-date, the basic chemical index has increased by 13.1%, again outperforming the CSI 300 index by 10.4 percentage points [13]. - Among the sub-sectors, the chemical raw materials sector saw an increase of 11.3%, while the plastic sector experienced a decline of 1.9% [14]. - A total of 272 out of 408 listed companies in the basic chemical index saw their stock prices rise, with notable increases from companies like Runtou Co., Ltd. (53.6%), Stik (49.4%), and Hongbaoli (45.9%) [16]. - The report highlights significant industry news, including a 5.5 billion yuan investment in a new optical materials manufacturing base and the opening of a product innovation center by CNOOC Shell [26][24]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The basic chemical index has shown strong performance, with sub-sectors generally increasing, particularly in chemical raw materials and agricultural chemicals [13][14]. - The report notes that the chemical industry is actively pursuing cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with major companies like Dow announcing plans to enhance operational efficiency [28]. Chemical Product Price Trends - Recent price movements include an increase in caprolactam (+2.67%) and TDI (+2.51%), while lithium hexafluorophosphate saw a significant drop (-6.12%) [21][22]. Key Industry News - The report discusses various significant projects and initiatives, including BASF's plan to establish a global digital center in India and Dow's operational restructuring plan aimed at achieving a minimum of $2 billion in EBITDA growth [26][28]. Weekly Industry Perspective - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for refrigerant companies due to rising prices, with companies like Sanmei Co., Ltd. and Juhua Co., Ltd. expected to see substantial profit increases in 2025 [28][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][41]. Core Insights - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.07% from January 16 to January 29, 2026, lagging behind the index by approximately 0.12 percentage points [3][10]. - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable increases in planting (9.25%), animal health (4.71%), agricultural product processing (4.12%), and fishery (1.82%), while feed and breeding sectors saw declines of 0.02% and 2.84%, respectively [3][13][14]. - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry was approximately 2.66 times as of January 29, 2026, indicating that the industry is at a relatively low valuation level compared to historical averages, positioned at about 59.9% of the valuation center since 2006 [3][18]. Industry Key Data - **Pig Farming**: - The average price of external three yuan pigs fluctuated from 12.76 CNY/kg to 13.24 CNY/kg before dropping to 12.52 CNY/kg during the reporting period [3][22]. - The breeding sow inventory reached 39.61 million heads by the end of December 2025, a decrease of 0.73% from the previous month, remaining within the normal range of 39 million heads [3][22]. - The profit from self-bred pigs was 25.1 CNY/head, while the profit from purchased piglets was 124.13 CNY/head, both maintaining positive profitability [3][26]. - **Poultry Farming**: - The average price of broiler chicks was 2.31 CNY/chick, showing a slight decrease, while the average price for layer chicks was 3.2 CNY/chick, which saw a minor increase [3][28]. - The average price for white feather broilers was 7.74 CNY/kg, with a profit of 0.39 CNY/chick, indicating a recovery in profitability [3][32]. - **Aquaculture**: - The average wholesale price for crucian carp and carp was stable, with prices at 19.4 CNY/kg and 13.88 CNY/kg, respectively, showing slight increases [3][33]. Industry Important News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting to discuss stabilizing beef production and alleviating dairy industry challenges, emphasizing the need for effective policies to support these sectors [3][35]. - A meeting was also held to coordinate efforts in the seed industry revitalization action, focusing on enhancing domestic seed security and promoting technological independence [3][38]. Company Highlights - Key companies to watch include: - Muyuan Foods (牧原股份, 002714): A leading player in pig farming with cost and scale advantages [3][42]. - Haida Group (海大集团, 002311): A leading feed company expected to maintain steady market share growth [3][42]. - Shengnong Development (圣农发展, 002299): A leader in the white feather broiler industry with advantages in seed sources [3][42]. - Reap Bio (瑞普生物, 300119): A leader in the animal health sector with a growing product matrix for pet health [3][42]. - Longping High-Tech (隆平高科, 000998): A leading seed company with advanced transgenic reserves [3][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [2] Core Insights - As of January 30, 2026, the installed capacity of new energy storage in China reached 136 million kilowatts, marking an 84% increase compared to the end of 2024 and over 40 times growth compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [2][40] - The report highlights significant growth in the photovoltaic and wind power sectors, with new installations expected to reach 315.1 GW and 119.3 GW respectively in 2025, representing year-on-year increases of 13.7% and 50.4% [42] - The report emphasizes the increasing flexibility of new energy storage systems, which play a crucial role in enhancing the stability and safety of the power system [42] Market Review - The power equipment sector experienced a decline of 0.47% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.53 percentage points, ranking 19th among 31 sectors [11] - In January 2026, the power equipment sector saw a monthly increase of 4.56%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.88 percentage points [11] - The wind power equipment sector rose by 1.77%, while the photovoltaic equipment sector increased by 4.24% during the same period [18] Valuation and Industry Data - As of January 29, 2026, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the power equipment sector was 34.76 times, with sub-sectors such as electric motors and other power equipment showing PE ratios of 59.88 and 59.64 respectively [24] - The report provides detailed valuation metrics for various sub-sectors, indicating significant variations in their market performance [25] Company Announcements - The report notes that several companies, including Gree and Enjie, are expected to turn profitable in 2025, with projected net profits ranging from 34 million to 164 million yuan [41][44] - The report highlights the importance of technological advancements and market strategies for companies in the power equipment sector to maintain competitive advantages [43]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the mechanical equipment industry is "Standard" [1] Core Insights - The mechanical equipment industry has shown a dual-week performance of 0.00%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.05 percentage points, ranking 16th among 31 industries [2] - The general equipment sector has the highest growth rate of 0.74% among the five sub-sectors, while the rail transit equipment II sector has the lowest decline of 1.15% [18] - The PE TTM for the mechanical equipment sector is 35.21 times, with the general equipment sector at 51.24 times, and the rail transit equipment II sector at 17.43 times [3] Market Review - As of January 29, 2026, the mechanical equipment sector has increased by 6.09% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.41 percentage points, ranking 15th among 31 industries [13] - The top three stocks in terms of dual-week growth are Tianzhong Precision Machinery, Deen Precision Engineering, and Fenglong Co., with growth rates of 73.80%, 66.72%, and 61.08% respectively [20] - The top three stocks in terms of year-to-date growth are Fenglong Co., Yujing Co., and Tianzhong Precision Machinery, with growth rates of 213.97%, 92.78%, and 80.82% respectively [20] Valuation Situation - The valuation for the mechanical equipment sector is 35.21 times, which is 18.76% higher than the one-year average of 29.65 times [25] - The general equipment sector's valuation is 51.24 times, which is 31.94% higher than its one-year average [25] - The rail transit equipment II sector's valuation is 17.43 times, which is slightly lower than its one-year average [25] Industry News - Tesla announced significant updates for the Optimus Gen3 robot, which is expected to launch in Q1 2026, potentially sparking a new technological revolution [4] - The domestic demand for construction machinery is expected to increase post-Spring Festival due to replacement and electrification upgrades [4] - The Beijing humanoid robot innovation center has officially launched, providing comprehensive testing services for humanoid robots [53] Company Announcements - Companies such as Huichuan Technology and Green's Harmonic are recommended for attention due to their strong market positions and growth potential [57][59] - Sany Heavy Industry and Hengli Hydraulic are highlighted for their expected performance improvements driven by infrastructure demand [57][59]

行 业 有色金属行业 标配（维持） 有色金属行业双周报（2026/01/16-2026/01/29） 金属价格高位震荡，有色板块分化加剧 2026 年 1 月 30 日 S0340523120001 电话：0769-23320072 邮箱： xuzhengkun@dgzq.com.cn 行 业 研 究 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 相关报告 投资要点： 申万有色金属行业指数走势 贵金属。黄金方面，近期在地缘局势扰动以及资金涌入等推动下，黄金价格 再度上行。短期需重点关注避险情绪退却、投机资金退出等风险。截至1月29 日，COMEX黄金价格收于5410.80美元/盎司，较1月初上涨1068.9美元，COMEX 白银价格收于115.79元/盎司，较1月初上涨44.81美元，上海黄金交易所黄金 Au（T+D）价格收于1243.40元/克，较1月初上涨269.01元。建议关注紫金矿 业（601899）。 工业金属。在全球降息周期开启的大背景下，有色金属价格屡创新高。随着 主流工业金属铜、锡等供需格局加快转好，以及工业金属补涨贵金属的机会 仍存，工业金属价格有望进一步上行。截至1月29日，LME铜价收于1370 ...