证券研究报告 2025 年 6 月 5 日 星期四 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场全天震荡反弹，创业板指领涨 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3376.20 | 0.42% | 14.23 | | | 深证成指 | 10144.58 | 0.87% | 87.41 | | | 沪深 300 | 3868.74 | 0.43% | 16.73 | | | 创业板 | 2024.93 | 1.11% | 22.23 | | | 科创 50 | 986.11 | 0.45% | 4.40 | | | 北证 50 | 1438.73 | 1.10% | 15.59 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美容护理 | 2.63% | 交通运输 | - ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 6 月 4 日 星期三 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场全天震荡反弹，三大指数小幅上涨 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 1 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3361.98 | 0.43% | 14.49 | | | 深证成指 | 10057.17 | 0.16% | 16.54 | | | 沪深 300 | 3852.01 | 0.31% | 11.78 | | | 创业板 | 2002.70 | 0.48% | 9.51 | | | 科创 50 | 981.71 | 0.48% | 4.68 | | | 北证 50 | 1423.15 | 1.03% | 14.46 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万一级涨幅前五 | | | 申万一级跌幅前五 | 热点板块 n | 涨幅前五 | 热点板块跌幅前五 | ...

n 本文推荐理由和目标价仅供参考，并不构成买卖建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 投资主题 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （25/5/31） | | | 600036 | 招商银行 | 43.43 | 高股息 | | 601899 | 紫金矿业 | 17.73 | 主营金属量价齐升 | | 603379 | 三美股份 | 47.33 | 制冷剂 | | 600600 | 青岛啤酒 | 74.17 | 关注旺季表现 | | 600276 | 恒瑞医药 | 54.74 | 创新药 | | 002311 | 海大集团 | 60.61 | 饲料龙头推进国际化 | | 600027 | 华电国际 | 5.85 | 煤电 | | 300476 | 胜宏科技 | 86.48 | PCB | | 601728 | 中国电信 | 8.03 | 算力与红利 | | 600536 | 中国软件 | 44.01 | 国产基础软件龙头，受益信创产业回暖 | 东莞证券 2025 年 6 月股票组合 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的 ...

基 金 研 究 开放式基金策略双周报（20250519-20250530）： 医药生物主题基金表现领跑市场 2025 年 06 月 03 日 投资要点 分析师：李荣 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340521010001 F4520000001431 电话：0769-26628039 邮箱：lirong@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，Wind 资讯 基础市场回顾：近两周权益市场整体承压，高股息红利指数出于防御性 微幅上涨。具体来看，沪深300、中证50和中证1000指数分别下跌1.26%、 0.78%和0.68%，红利指数上涨0.01%。行业方面，涨幅靠前的三个行业分 别是医药生物、环保和传媒。近两周国内债券市场整体表现较好，尽管 权益市场主要指数出现下跌，转债市场整体表现稳定，信用债指数表现 优于国债指数。具体来看，中证全债、中证国债和中证信用债分别上涨 0.07%、0.01%和0.13%。 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 基金市场回顾：近两周中国基金指数下跌0.18%。录 ...

| 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 农林牧渔 | 1.20% | 汽车 | -1.91% | 猪肉 | 2.39% | 可控核聚变 | -3.47% | | 银行 | 0.64% | 综合 | -1.87% | 养鸡 | 1.94% | 减速器 | -3.18% | | 医药生物 | 0.37% | 电子 | -1.85% | 创新药 | 1.56% | EDR 概念 | -3.01% | | 国防军工 | 0.17% | 机械设备 | -1.81% | 动物疫苗 | 1.35% | 人形机器人 | -2.90% | | 建筑装饰 | 0.06% | 计算机 | -1.69% | 眼科医疗 | 1.30% | 一体化压铸 | -2.79% | 证券研究报告 2025 年 6 月 3 日 星期二 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场全天弱势震荡，创业板指领跌 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | ...

Investment Ratings - Banking: Overweight (Maintain) [1] - Securities: Market Weight (Maintain) [1] - Insurance: Overweight (Maintain) [4] Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to maintain stable performance despite external uncertainties, benefiting from policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and fiscal support, making it a strong defensive investment choice [5][46] - The securities sector is currently experiencing a period of adjustment, with a valuation of 1.35, indicating potential for recovery as external conditions improve and capital market reforms continue [5][49] - The insurance sector is seeing increased equity investments, with significant growth in stock holdings and long-term equity investments, driven by regulatory support for insurance capital market participation [50] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of May 29, 2025, the banking, securities, and insurance indices have shown declines of -0.93%, -2.93%, and -1.10% respectively, while the CSI 300 index decreased by -1.24% [13] - Notable performers include Su Nong Bank (+6.33%), Xiangcai Securities (+1.11%), and China Pacific Insurance (+1.82%) [13] Valuation Situation - The banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio is 0.68, with state-owned banks at 0.69, joint-stock banks at 0.63, city commercial banks at 0.72, and rural commercial banks at 0.64 [23] - The securities sector's PB ratio is at 1.35, positioned at the 33.84% percentile over the past five years, indicating room for valuation recovery [26] Recent Market Indicators - As of May 29, 2025, the one-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate is 2.0%, with the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [32] - The average daily trading volume in A-shares is 11,387.53 billion, reflecting a decrease of 7.58% week-on-week [35] Industry News - In Q1 2025, commercial banks achieved a net profit of 656.8 billion, with an average capital return rate of 8.82% [41] - The financial regulatory authority announced measures to support insurance capital market participation, including expanding long-term investment pilot programs [50] Company Announcements - Notable stock performance includes Chengdu Bank, Ningbo Bank, and China Merchants Bank, which are recommended for investment due to their strong regional performance and stability [47] - In the securities sector, firms like Zheshang Securities and Guolian Minsheng are highlighted for their potential restructuring opportunities [49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to optimize industrial layout and curb the disorderly expansion of backward production capacity, reiterating the need to address "involution" competition [3][28] - The construction scale of projects in the basic chemical sector has decreased by 8.61% year-on-year and 5.03% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a declining willingness for expansion among enterprises [3][28] - The industry is currently at a low point in profitability, and supply is expected to gradually become more rational, with a focus on segments with favorable supply-demand dynamics [3][28] Market Review - As of May 29, 2025, the CITIC basic chemical industry has risen by 0.2% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.44 percentage points, ranking 15th among 30 CITIC industries [10] - The basic chemical industry has increased by 3.54% since the beginning of the month and 3.4% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.2 and 5.34 percentage points respectively [10] Chemical Product Price Trends - The top five chemical products with the highest price increases in the past week include hydrochloric acid (+35.42%), liquid chlorine (+21.85%), formic acid (+6.52%), dichlorophenyl (+6.15%), and nitrogen (+5.36%) [20][21] - The top five products with the largest price declines include methyl chloride (-11.63%), acrylic acid (-9.74%), butadiene (-9.60%), fatty alcohol (-8.40%), and natural rubber (-6.55%) [20][21] Sub-industry Performance - The top five sub-industries with the highest growth over the past two weeks are pesticides (9.4%), polyester (7.25%), rubber additives (6.93%), other plastic products (2.75%), and membrane materials (1.94%) [16] - The bottom five sub-industries with the largest declines are carbon fiber (-8.37%), daily chemicals (-2.82%), chlor-alkali (-2.58%), organic silicon (-2.48%), and fluorine chemicals (-2.31%) [17] Company Recommendations - In the refrigerant sector, the report suggests focusing on Sanmei Co., Ltd. (603379) and Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160) due to the continued rise in long-term contract prices for refrigerants [28] - For the modified plastics sector, it is recommended to pay attention to Kingfa Sci. & Tech. Co., Ltd. (600143) as demand in the home appliance and automotive sectors is expected to improve [28][29] - In the lubricant additive sector, the report highlights the importance of domestic substitution and suggests monitoring Ruifeng New Materials (300910) [29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" investment rating for the consumer services industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [33]. Core Insights - The report highlights a return to local and nearby short trips during the Dragon Boat Festival, with a notable increase in family travel orders due to the upcoming Children's Day. The data shows that domestic flight bookings for the holiday have slightly increased year-on-year, while international flight bookings have grown by approximately 19% compared to the same period in 2024 [33][24]. - The report suggests that hotel groups should focus on rapid market penetration through short-cycle renovations and the establishment of mid-to-high-end hotel brands in lower-tier markets to achieve competitive differentiation [33]. - The upcoming graduation travel season and summer tourism peak are expected to improve the outlook for travel attractions and dining sectors, potentially boosting policies for cultural tourism development [33]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The consumer services industry index experienced a slight decline of 0.04% from May 16 to May 29, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 1.20 percentage points [10]. - The performance of sub-sectors varied, with tourism and comprehensive services showing gains of 2.86% and 0.28%, respectively, while the hotel and education sectors declined by 1.81% and 0.52% [11]. - A total of 31 listed companies in the industry reported positive returns, with the top five performers being BoRui Communication, Chuangye Heima, Miao Exhibition, ST United, and Guangzhou Restaurant, with increases ranging from 5.04% to 9.46% [13]. - The overall price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the consumer services industry was approximately 30.68 times, reflecting a slight decrease and remaining below the average valuation of 50.19 times since 2016 [18]. Industry News - The report notes the implementation of a visa-free policy for citizens of Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain from June 9, 2025, to June 8, 2026, which is expected to enhance tourism [23]. - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism, along with 19 other departments, issued guidelines to improve tourism services for the elderly, promoting the development of travel and family tourism products [25][26]. Company Announcements - The report includes significant announcements from various companies, such as the strategic partnership between Junting Hotel Group and Select International Hotel Group, which will enhance distribution channels for hotel bookings in China [29]. - Other notable announcements include the investment plans of companies like Guotour Cultural Investment Group and Lingnan Holdings to expand their operations in the tourism sector [28][32].

Market Performance - The North Exchange 50 Index reached a historical high, surpassing 1500 points on May 21, 2025, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 40%[4] - In May 2025, the North Exchange 50 Index rose by 9.52%, with a peak increase of 12.71% during the month[5] - As of May 29, 2025, the North Exchange 50 Index has increased by 36.43% year-to-date, with a maximum increase of 44.57%[5] Trading Activity - The total trading volume for the North Exchange in May 2025 was approximately 579.41 billion yuan, with a volume of 27.22 billion shares traded[23] - A total of 235 stocks increased in value, while 31 stocks decreased, with no stocks remaining unchanged during May 2025[5] New Listings and Regulatory Changes - One new stock was listed on the North Exchange in May 2025, bringing the total number of listed companies to 266[31] - The North Exchange implemented a pilot program for stock code switching starting May 6, 2025, to enhance trading convenience[4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-growth sectors such as semiconductors, military industry, AI, and satellite internet for domestic alternatives and technological breakthroughs[14] - Companies in the consumer industry chain are expected to benefit from policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption[14] Valuation Metrics - As of May 29, 2025, the average PE ratio (TTM) for the North Exchange 50 Index was 73.22, while the median was 73.34[20] - The average PE ratio for the ChiNext Index was 30.72, and for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, it was 142.30[20] Risk Factors - There is a risk that the implementation of policies may not meet expectations, potentially impacting the stability of the North Exchange[36] - Short-term price surges in individual stocks may lead to irrational investment behavior driven by market sentiment[36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium battery industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [51]. Core Viewpoints - The lithium battery index has seen a decline of 2.45% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.21 percentage points. However, it has increased by 8.59% this month, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.25 percentage points [2][11]. - The report highlights that the recent drop in lithium carbonate prices indicates insufficient cost support, leading to weakness in certain segments of the industry chain. Despite this, the demand for new energy vehicles remains strong, with retail sales of 726,000 units from May 1 to May 25, a year-on-year increase of 31% [45][42]. - The overall demand for lithium batteries is expected to maintain rapid growth, driven by the continuous development of renewable energy and the increasing demand for energy storage in new data centers. The supply-demand relationship in the industry is gradually improving, which is beneficial for the utilization rate of quality production capacity [47]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - As of May 29, 2025, the lithium battery index has decreased by 2.45% in the last two weeks, while it has increased by 8.59% this month and decreased by 1.91% year-to-date [11]. 2. Price Changes in the Lithium Battery Industry Chain - As of May 29, 2025, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 62,800 CNY/ton, down 5.28% in the last two weeks. The price of lithium hydroxide (LiOH 56.5%) is 69,400 CNY/ton, down 3.34% [4][22]. - Prices for cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate remain stable at 31,500 CNY/ton, while NCM523, NCM622, and NCM811 have seen slight decreases of 2.97%, 2.00%, and an increase of 0.68%, respectively [26][31]. 3. Industry News - The China Automotive Engineering Society has released a group standard for "all-solid-state batteries," clarifying definitions and testing methods, which will support technological upgrades and industrial applications [42]. - The report notes that the demand for new energy vehicles is robust, with a retail penetration rate of 53.5% in the new energy market, indicating a strong market outlook [45]. 4. Recommended Stocks - Key stocks to watch include CATL (300750), EVE Energy (300014), Keda Technology (002850), Tianwei Technology (688116), and Naconor (832522), all of which have strong performance support and are expected to benefit from the ongoing developments in the solid-state battery industry [47][48].