证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 17 日 星期三 【A 股市场大势研判】 三大指数跌超 1% 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3824.81 | -1.11% | -43.11 | | | 深证成指 | 12914.67 | -1.51% | -197.42 | | | 沪深 300 | 4497.55 | -1.20% | -54.51 | | | 创业板 | 3071.76 | -2.10% | -66.04 | | | 科创 50 | 1293.38 | -1.94% | -25.52 | | | 北证 50 | 1439.65 | 0.54% | 7.70 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概念板块表现前五 ◼ | | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商贸零售 | 1.32% | ...

基 金 研 究 ETF 基金周报（20251208-20251212）： 资金布局红利类策略趋势明显 2025 年 12 月 16 日 投资要点 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 分析师：李荣 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340521010001 基金从业资格证书编号： F4520000001431 电话：0769-26628039 邮箱：lirong@dgzq.com.cn 证 券 研 究 报 告 各类ETF基金周度平均收益及资金流动概览：本周全球大类资产中能源 价格震荡调整，黄金和白银资产表现亮眼,权益市场分化。国内债券市场 在连续下跌后终于迎来反弹。映射到ETF基金市场，各类型ETF基金中除 了跨境ETF基金外，均录得周度平均正收益。本周ETF基金资金净流入 124.96亿元，除了股票型ETF基金外，其他各类型ETF基金均出现不同程 度净流入，其中跨境ETF基金净流入102.36亿元，呈现越跌越买的态势， 在结构上延续近期资金流动趋势，一手港股科技类ETF基金，一手高股息 策略基金。股票型 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 16 日 星期二 【A 股市场大势研判】 指数集体收绿 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3867.92 | -0.55% | -21.42 | | | 深证成指 | 13112.09 | -1.10% | -146.24 | | | 沪深 300 | 4552.06 | -0.63% | -28.89 | | | 创业板 | 3137.80 | -1.77% | -56.56 | | | 科创 50 | 1318.91 | -2.22% | -29.97 | | | 北证 50 | 1431.95 | -1.09% | -15.74 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 消息方面，1-11 月固定资产投资（不含农户）同比下降 2.6%，前值降 1.7%；11 月社 会消费品零售同比增 1.3%，前值增 2.9%；11 月规模以上工业增加值同比增 4.8%，前值增 4.9%。总的来看，11 月份国民经济运行总体平稳，延续稳中有 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained), indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [4]. Core Insights - In November 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached new highs, with production and sales of 1.88 million and 1.823 million units respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 20% and 20.6% [3]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in November was 53.2%, up 1.6 percentage points month-on-month, while the cumulative penetration rate from January to November was 47.5% [3]. - The demand for lithium batteries remains robust, with a significant increase in battery production and sales in November, achieving a year-on-year growth of 49.2% and 52.2% respectively [3]. - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for lithium battery demand in the coming year, driven by strong storage demand and the ongoing industrialization of solid-state batteries [3]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicle Market - In November 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.88 million and 1.823 million units, with year-on-year growth of 20% and 20.6% respectively [3]. - Cumulative production and sales from January to November were 14.907 million and 14.78 million units, with year-on-year growth of 31.4% and 31.2% [3]. - Exports of new energy vehicles in November reached 300,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.6 times [3]. Battery Production and Sales - In November, the production of power and other batteries was 176.3 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 49.2% [3]. - Battery sales in November were 179.4 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 52.2% [3]. - The sales of power batteries accounted for 74.7% of total sales, with a year-on-year growth of 52.7% [3]. Industry Outlook - The report suggests that the lithium battery industry will continue to see demand growth, particularly in the context of strong storage needs and the advancement of solid-state battery technology [3]. - Key companies to watch include CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others involved in the solid-state battery supply chain [3].

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 15 日 星期一 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3889.35 | 0.41% | 16.03 | | | 深证成指 | 13258.33 | 0.84% | 110.94 | | | 沪深 300 | 4580.95 | 0.63% | 28.77 | | | 创业板 | 3194.36 | 0.97% | 30.68 | | | 科创 50 | 1348.88 | 1.74% | 23.05 | | | 北证 50 | 1447.69 | 0.31% | 4.52 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 1.50% | 商贸零售 | -1.28% | 可控核聚 ...

事 件 点 评 绎，迎接跨年行情 ——中央经济工作会议点评 | 策 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 政策表态释放积极信号，大盘有望继续向上演 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 略 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 研 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 绎，迎接跨年行情 | 究 | | | | | | | | | | | | ——中央经济工作会议点评 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 分析师：熊越（SAC | 执业证书编号：S0340524080001） | | | | | | | | | | | | 电话：0769-22118627 | 邮箱：xiongyue@dgzq.com.cn | 年 | 月 | 日 | 2025 | 12 | 12 | | | | | | 分析师：叶子沛（SAC | 执业证书编号：S0340525070001） | | | | | | | | | ...

基础化工 超配（维持） 基础化工行业双周报（2025/11/28-2025/12/11） 磷肥座谈会建议通过"组合拳"稳定市场预期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 分析师：苏治彬 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523080001 电话：0769-22110925 邮箱： suzhibin@dgzq.com.cn 行业指数走势 资料来源：iFinD，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 周 报 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 行情回顾：截至12月11日，近两周申万基础化工指数下跌0.7%，跑输沪 深300指数1.5个百分点，在31个申万行业中排第18名；年初至今，申万 基础化工指数上涨25.1%，跑赢沪深300指数9.4个百分点，在31个申万 行业中排第7名。 ◼ 分板块来看，近两周申万基础化工指数的子板块涨少跌多，其中2个子 板块上涨，非金属材料板块上涨2.1%、塑料板块上涨1.0%；5个子板块下 跌，化学原料板块下跌2.6%、化学纤维板 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 12 日 星期五 【下周策略】 ◆本周走势回顾 本周沪指震荡调整，全周市场交投活跃度仍保持高位，量能均 超 1.7 万亿元，周一及周五更是站上两万亿。从周 K 线来看，上证 指数下跌 0.34%，深证成指上涨 0.84%，创业板指上涨 2.74%，科创 50 指数上涨 1.72%，北证 50 指数上涨 2.79%。个股板块跌多涨少， 通信、国防军工、电子、机械设备和电力设备等板块涨幅靠前，煤 炭、石油石化、钢铁、房地产和纺织服饰等板块跌幅靠前。 ◆下周大势研判：震荡盘升 从本周市场来看： 首先，12 月中央政治局会议和中央经济工作会议相继召开，为 2026 年经济工作定向。 其次，11 月出口延续强韧性，CPI 同比涨幅继续修复。 最后，美联储如期降息 25 个基点，本次议息会议的基调中性 偏鸽。 总体来看，本周沪指震荡调整，全周市场交投活跃度仍保持高 位，量能均超 1.7 万亿元，周一及周五更是站上两万亿。从海外环 境来看，美联储 12 月议息会议如期降息 25 个基点至 3.50%-3.75%， 为年内第三次降息。此次议息会议的基调中性偏鸽，但会后点阵图 显示 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [1][3] Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market, with expectations for new policies to be introduced to control supply, reduce inventory, and improve the quality of housing supply [4][25] - In November, first-tier cities saw a significant increase in second-hand housing transactions, reaching 49,033 units, a 20% month-on-month increase, marking a seven-month high [4][25] - The building materials sector is focusing on improving profitability, with a target for green building materials revenue to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2026 [5][47] Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector is currently in a "bottoming" phase, with expectations for policy support to enhance market stability and recovery [4][25] - The report highlights a shift from high leverage and turnover to a focus on quality, service, and sustainability in the industry [4][25] - Key companies to watch include Poly Developments, Binjiang Group, and China Merchants Shekou, which are expected to perform well in the evolving market landscape [4][25] Building Materials Sector - The building materials sector has seen a slight increase of 0.89% in the last two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index [26] - The cement industry is undergoing structural upgrades, with over 83.59 million tons of clinker capacity being eliminated as part of the capacity replacement policy [47] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields, such as Conch Cement, Taipai Group, and Huaxin Cement [47] Market Trends - The report notes that the overall profitability of the cement industry has significantly improved, with leading companies showing strong cash flow and performance [47] - The glass fiber sector is experiencing a shift in demand from traditional construction materials to high-growth areas such as renewable energy and high-end electronic fibers [5][48] - The report indicates that the market for photovoltaic glass is under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand, but long-term growth prospects remain strong [5][42]

农林牧渔行业 超配（维持） 农林牧渔行业双周报（2025/11/28-2025/12/11） 行 业 生猪价格有所回升 2025 年 12 月 12 日 投资要点： 风险提示：疫病大规模爆发，价格下行，自然灾害，市场竞争加剧等。 证 | | | 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn SW农林牧渔行业跑输沪深300指数。2025年11月28日—2025年12月11日， SW农林牧渔行业下跌0.92%，跑输同期沪深300指数约1.73个百分点；细分 板块中，仅动物保健和种植业录得正收益，分别上涨1.96%和1.18%；农产 品加工、饲料、养殖业和渔业均录得负收益，分别下跌1.01%、1.5%、3.03% 和3.76%。估值方面，截至2025年12月11日，SW农林牧渔行业指数整体PB （整体法，最新报告期，剔除负值）约2.75倍，近两周估值有所回落。目 前行业估 ...