食品饮料行业 超配 （维持） 曙光渐近，蓄力前行 食品饮料行业 2026 年上半年投资策略 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 食品饮料（申万）指数走势 2025 年 11 月 24 日 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：黄冬祎 资料来源：同花顺，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 投 资 策 略 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 推荐 ◼ 食品饮料行业今年1-10月跑输沪深300指数。受需求弱复苏以及禁酒 令等因素影响，食品饮料行业今年走势较弱。2025年1-10月份（截至 2025年10月31日），SW食品饮料行业指数整体下跌5.52%，跌幅在所有 申万一级行业中最大，跑输同期沪深300指数23.46个百分点。细分板 块中，所有 ...

| 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3834.89 | -2.45% | -96.16 | | 深证成指 | 12538.07 | -3.41% | -442.75 | | 沪深 300 | 4453.61 | -2.44% | -111.34 | | 创业板 | 2920.08 | -4.02% | -122.26 | | 科创 50 | 1285.83 | -3.19% | -42.36 | | 北证 50 | 1377.39 | -4.71% | -68.15 | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： 证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 24 日 星期一 【A 股市场大势研判】 沪指失守 3900 点 市场表现： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概念板块表现前五 ◼ | | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 传媒 | -0.32% | 综合 | -5.50% | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the consumer services industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [33]. Core Insights - The consumer services industry index rose by 3.82% from November 7 to November 20, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 6.56 percentage points during the same period [9][10]. - The report highlights strong growth in domestic travel, with outbound hotel and flight bookings reaching 140% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019, and inbound tourism bookings increasing by over 100% year-on-year [33][27]. - The implementation of digital technologies in the cultural and tourism sectors is expected to enhance the supply side of the tourism industry, promoting upgrades and new consumption scenarios [22][33]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The consumer services index continued its upward trend, ranking fourth among all CITIC first-level industry indices [9]. - The performance of sub-sectors varied, with comprehensive services down by 0.43%, while tourism and hotel sectors saw increases of 4.54% and 6.26%, respectively [10]. - A total of 27 listed companies in the industry reported positive returns, with the top five performers being Jinjiang Hotels, Junting Hotels, Caesar Travel, Changbai Mountain, and China Duty Free, showing increases of 11.23%, 9.49%, 9.16%, 9.08%, and 8.48% respectively [14] [10]. Industry News - The State Council issued an opinion to accelerate the application of digital technologies in the cultural and tourism sectors, aiming to integrate various digital experiences [22]. - Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the government of Kunshan City to enhance the local tourism industry [23]. - Ctrip's Q3 report indicated a robust recovery in domestic travel, with significant increases in international bookings [27]. Company Announcements - Junting Hotels announced a cash acquisition of the remaining 21% stake in its subsidiary, aiming for full ownership [28]. - Huazhu Group reported a 17.5% year-on-year increase in hotel revenue for Q3 2025, with a total revenue of 30.6 billion yuan [24]. Weekly Perspective - The report suggests focusing on specific stocks such as Jinjiang Hotels, Changbai Mountain, Emei Mountain A, Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism, and China Duty Free, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in leisure travel demand [34][35].

Investment Ratings - Banking: Overweight (Maintain) [1] - Securities: Market Weight (Maintain) [1] - Insurance: Overweight (Maintain) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of a trillion-yuan brokerage firm through mergers, accelerating supply-side reforms in the securities industry [3] - The total assets of the new company formed by the merger of CICC, Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities are expected to reach 1009.583 billion yuan, making it the fourth largest securities company in A-shares [3] - The report indicates that the insurance sector is seeing a steady increase in stock investments, with a total balance of 3.62 trillion yuan, reflecting a shift towards equity investments to mitigate potential risks [4][46] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of November 20, 2025, the banking, securities, and insurance indices have changed by +1.69%, -3.36%, and +1.76% respectively, while the CSI 300 index decreased by -2.74% [12] - Among the sub-sectors, China Bank (+10.25%), Dongxing Securities (+5.38%), and China Life Insurance (+2.32%) performed the best [12] Valuation Situation - As of November 20, 2025, the PB ratio for the banking sector is 0.77, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks having PB ratios of 0.83, 0.62, 0.73, and 0.65 respectively [22] - The securities sector's PB ratio is 1.49, indicating potential for valuation recovery [25] Recent Market Indicators - The average daily trading volume in A-shares was 1819.419 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.14% week-on-week [35] - The average margin balance was 2493.753 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.05% [35] Industry News - The report notes that the financial regulatory authority has implemented measures to enhance the supervision of pension institutions, which may impact banking operations [39] - The report also highlights a significant increase in bond underwriting by securities firms, particularly in technology and rural revitalization bonds [39] Company Announcements - CICC announced plans to merge with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, with the merger expected to enhance its market position significantly [45] - Nanjing Securities plans to raise up to 5 billion yuan through a private placement to strengthen its capital base and enhance competitiveness [42] Weekly Perspectives - The banking sector is expected to benefit from a shift in funds towards safer investments, particularly in high-dividend, low-valuation bank stocks [44] - The insurance sector is encouraged to increase equity investment ratios, with a focus on returning to core protection functions [46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [1][43]. Core Insights - In October 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 51.6%, with production and sales of NEVs at 1.772 million and 1.715 million units respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 21.1% and 20% [1][39]. - The overall automotive production in China for October was 3.359 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%, while sales reached 3.226 million units, up 8.8% year-on-year [1][39]. - The report anticipates a surge in NEV purchases before the policy changes in 2026, which will reduce tax incentives, leading to a potential buying frenzy at the end of 2025 [1][39]. Summary by Sections Automotive Industry Trends and Valuation Review - As of November 20, 2025, the Shenyin Wanguo automotive sector index increased by 2.02% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.13 percentage points [11]. - Year-to-date, the automotive sector has risen by 23.72%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 4.44 percentage points [11]. Industry Data Tracking - In October, the automotive export volume was 666,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.9% [19]. - The dealer inventory warning index stood at 52.6%, indicating a slight increase year-on-year but a decrease month-on-month [19]. Industry News - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a draft for public consultation on the "Government Procurement Demand Standards for New Energy Vehicles" [26]. - The National Energy Administration reported that as of the end of October, there were 18.645 million electric vehicle charging facilities in China, a 54% increase year-on-year [29]. Corporate News - The new model, the Xiangjie S9, was launched with a starting price of 309,800 yuan, featuring advanced technology and design [33]. - Xiaopeng Motors reported a third-quarter revenue of 20.38 billion yuan, a 102% year-on-year increase, with a total vehicle delivery of 116,007 units [36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that enhance brand competitiveness through intelligent processes, such as Seres (601127) [39]. - It also highlights the smart driving industry chain, including Fuyao Glass (600660) and Junsheng Electronics (600699), as potential beneficiaries of increased smart driving configuration penetration [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium battery industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [50]. Core Insights - The lithium battery index has seen a decline of 4.16% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.43 percentage points. However, year-to-date, the lithium battery index has increased by 51.13%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 35.12 percentage points [2][13]. - Recent price increases in lithium carbonate, lithium iron phosphate, and hexafluorophosphate lithium (6F) have been noted, particularly a significant rise in 6F prices [6][46]. - The overall demand for lithium batteries remains strong, driven by the booming electric vehicle market, which has seen a monthly sales record in October, with a market penetration rate exceeding 50% [6][46]. Price Changes in the Lithium Battery Supply Chain - As of November 20, 2025, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 93,700 CNY/ton, reflecting a 17.42% increase over the past two weeks. Lithium hydroxide prices have remained stable at 72,200 CNY/ton [4][27]. - Lithium iron phosphate prices have risen to 38,100 CNY/ton, up 9.64% in the same period. Prices for NCM523, NCM622, and NCM811 have also seen slight increases [30]. - The price of hexafluorophosphate lithium has surged to 175,000 CNY/ton, marking a 47.06% increase [34]. Market Outlook - The report expresses optimism for the overall demand for lithium batteries in the coming year, with an improving supply-demand balance in the industry. However, it notes that the first quarter is typically a slow season for electric vehicle sales, and production rates may decline towards the end of the year [6][46]. - The ongoing development of solid-state batteries is expected to create new demand for materials and equipment in the supply chain, with significant advancements anticipated in the coming years [6][46]. Company Performance Highlights - Notable companies in the lithium battery supply chain have shown significant stock performance, with ST Huzong, Tianhua New Energy, and Haike New Source leading the gains in the past two weeks [14][17]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with technological and cost advantages across various segments of the supply chain, particularly those involved in solid-state battery technology [6][46].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the AI Infrastructure industry chain, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [2][26]. Core Insights - Nvidia's FY26Q3 revenue reached $57 billion, a 62% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations. The data center business contributed $51.2 billion, growing 66% year-over-year, driven by Blackwell shipments [26]. - The report highlights that Nvidia's guidance for the next quarter is $65 billion, also above market expectations, with a Non-GAAP gross margin of 75% [26]. - The anticipated GPU shipments for the Blackwell and Rubin platforms are expected to reach 20 million units by the end of 2026, with projected sales of $500 billion [26]. Market Review and Valuation - The Shenwan Electronics sector experienced a cumulative decline of 7.33% over the past two weeks (11/07-11/20), underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.60 percentage points, ranking 31st among Shenwan industries [10]. - As of November 20, the PE TTM for the Shenwan Electronics sector (excluding negative values) is 56.82 times, positioned at the 94.90% percentile over the past five years and 89.80% over the past ten years [10][15]. Industry News - Tencent's Liu Chiping mentioned plans for WeChat to eventually launch an AI assistant to help users complete various tasks within the app [19]. - Google has officially released the Gemini 3 model, which significantly outperforms competitors' models [19]. - Nvidia and Microsoft announced a strategic partnership with Anthropic, with Nvidia committing up to $10 billion and Microsoft up to $5 billion [19]. Company Announcements - On November 17, Shengyi Electronics announced a fundraising of up to 2.6 billion yuan for projects related to AI computing and smart manufacturing [18]. - The report also notes significant revenue growth for companies like Huadian and Lixun Precision, driven by emerging computing demands [27][30].

Group 1 - The electronic industry has performed well this year, with a cumulative increase of 40.90% as of November 14, 2025, ranking fifth among the Shenwan primary industries, primarily driven by the AI innovation cycle [15][20][6] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the electronic industry achieved operating revenue of 2.44 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.86%, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 1,003.33 billion yuan, up 33.41% year-on-year [20][31][6] - The rapid growth in performance is attributed to strong demand from AI data centers, recovery in traditional consumer electronics, and emerging fields such as AI glasses and AR/VR [20][31][6] Group 2 - The AI Infra market is expected to maintain high growth, with global AI infrastructure spending projected to reach $3-4 trillion by 2030, with a CAGR of 38%-46% from 2025 to 2030 [33][70][71] - Major model vendors are increasing their computing power reserves, with OpenAI and NVIDIA planning to deploy significant AI data centers, indicating strong revenue guidance for the coming years [40][51][47] - The demand for AI servers is projected to grow significantly, with global shipments expected to reach 1.249 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25.28% [71][76][82] Group 3 - PCB and CCL segments are expected to see both volume and price increases, driven by new technologies such as CoWoP and orthogonal backplanes, which will enhance the value of the PCB industry [83][89][90] - The introduction of high-end PCB materials and advanced manufacturing techniques is anticipated to further elevate the market value and production efficiency [83][89][90] - The demand for high-end CCL is also expected to rise due to the increasing requirements from AI computing hardware [31][32][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [4][25]. Core Insights - The SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry outperformed the CSI 300 index during the period from November 7 to November 20, 2025, with a decline of 1.51%, which is approximately 1.23 percentage points better than the CSI 300 index [11]. - Most sub-sectors within the industry recorded negative returns, with in vitro diagnostics and pharmaceutical distribution showing the highest gains of 2.37% and 2.27%, respectively, while medical R&D outsourcing and medical consumables experienced declines of 3.67% and 2.93% [12]. - Approximately 43% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns during the same period, with the top performer, Hezhong China, seeing a weekly increase of 82.57% [16]. - The overall price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry as of November 20, 2025, was approximately 51.84 times, indicating a decrease in industry valuation [19]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 1.51% compared to the index's performance [11]. - Most sub-sectors recorded negative returns, with in vitro diagnostics and pharmaceutical distribution leading in gains [12]. - About 43% of stocks in the industry had positive returns, with significant variations in individual stock performance [16]. 2. Industry News - The report highlights the announcement from the Hebei Provincial Medical Products Procurement Center regarding the centralized procurement of 25 types of medical consumables, including biopsy needles and infusion ports [23]. 3. Company Announcements - Ningbo Tianyi Medical Devices Co., Ltd. received a medical device registration certificate for its blood dialysis concentrate products [24]. 4. Industry Outlook - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the flu-related sector due to the onset of the flu season, recommending several companies across various segments, including medical devices, pharmaceutical commerce, and innovative drugs [25][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the semiconductor industry [2] Core Insights - Nvidia's Q3 revenue reached a record high of $57.01 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 62%, exceeding market expectations [12][44] - TSMC's October sales increased by 11.0% month-on-month and 16.9% year-on-year [13] - Major memory manufacturers, including Samsung and SK Hynix, plan to raise NAND prices and cut production [14][16] - Several smartphone manufacturers have delayed memory chip purchases due to rising prices and low inventory levels [18] - The Chinese semiconductor industry is projected to surpass $100 billion in sales for the first time in 2025 [25] Industry Review - The semiconductor industry index fell by 6.54% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.81 percentage points; however, it has risen by 38.51% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 by 22.50 percentage points [4][11] Industry News and Company Dynamics - Nvidia's data center revenue grew by 66% year-on-year, indicating strong demand from cloud service providers [12][44] - The demand for AI-related products continues to be robust, with TSMC also reporting stronger-than-expected AI revenue growth [44] - The price of NAND flash memory has seen significant increases, with some products rising by as much as 38.46% [23] - Lenovo has signed long-term supply agreements to secure components amid rising prices and shortages [24] Semiconductor Industry Data Update - Global smartphone shipments reached 323 million units in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.09% [37] - In October 2025, domestic new energy vehicle sales reached 1.715 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20.0% [38] - Global semiconductor sales in September 2025 were $69.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.1% [42] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as North Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, and Huahai Qingke in semiconductor equipment and materials, as well as companies like Zhaoyi Innovation and Lanqi Technology in memory chips [45][48]