Investment Ratings - Banking: Overweight (Maintain) [1] - Securities: Market Weight (Maintain) [1] - Insurance: Overweight (Maintain) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the financing leverage is being actively adjusted, with the insurance preset interest rate stabilizing. The recent increase in margin requirements from 80% to 100% aims to promote long-term healthy development in the current market environment [2][47]. - The report indicates that the average margin balance has exceeded 2.7 trillion yuan in recent trading days, reflecting an accelerated pace of leveraged funds entering the market [2][47]. - The insurance preset interest rate research value for Q4 2025 is 1.89%, with a buffer of 14 basis points before triggering a downward adjustment [3][48]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of January 22, 2026, the banking, securities, and insurance indices have experienced declines of -5.20%, -2.43%, and -7.46%, respectively, while the CSI 300 index decreased by -0.29% [11]. - Among the sub-sectors, Changshu Bank (+4.14%), Pacific Securities (+3.35%), and China Life (-4.29%) showed the best performance [11]. Valuation Situation - As of January 22, 2026, the PB ratio for the banking sector is 0.70, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks having PB ratios of 0.75, 0.57, 0.69, and 0.61, respectively [21]. - The securities sector's PB valuation is 1.47, indicating potential for valuation recovery [25]. Recent Market Indicators - The 1-year MLF operation rate is 2.0%, with the 1-year and 5-year LPR at 3.0% and 3.50%, respectively [30]. - The average daily trading volume of A-shares is 26,971.78 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 21.33% compared to the previous week [36]. Industry News - The People's Bank of China has decided to lower the re-lending and re-discount rates by 0.25 percentage points to enhance the effectiveness of structural monetary policy tools [42]. - The China Insurance Industry Association held a meeting discussing the preset interest rates for life insurance products, confirming the current research value at 1.89% [42]. Company Announcements - Notable announcements include Ningbo Bank reporting a revenue of 71.968 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.01% [45]. - China Pacific Insurance reported a premium income of 258.115 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting an 8.1% growth [45]. Weekly Perspectives - The banking sector is advised to focus on regional banks with strong performance certainty, such as Ningbo Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Changshu Bank [46]. - The securities sector is recommended to pay attention to firms with restructuring expectations, including Zheshang Securities and Guolian Minsheng [47]. - The insurance sector should focus on companies with leading premium growth, such as China Pacific Insurance and China Life [48].

证券研究报告 2026 年 1 月 23 日 星期五 【下周策略】 ◆本周走势回顾 本周指数震荡走强，沪指企稳 4100 点。从周 K 线来看，上证指 数上涨 0.84%，深证成指上涨 1.11%，创业板指下跌 0.34%，科创 50 指数上涨 2.62%，北证 50 指数上涨 2.60%。个股板块涨多跌少，建 筑材料、石油石化、钢铁和基础化工等板块涨幅靠前，医药生物、 食品饮料、非银金融、通信和银行等板块跌幅靠前。 ◆下周大势研判：震荡巩固，春季行情有望延续 从本周市场来看： ◆风险提示： 海外经济超预期下滑，以及中美贸易摩擦超预期恶化，导致外 需回落，国内出口承压；全球主要经济体超预期延长加息周期，高 利率环境使全球经济增速明显放缓，压缩国内资金面；海外信用收 缩引发风险事件，对市场流动性造成冲击，干扰利率和汇率走势。 | 市场近一周走势 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 周收盘(点) | 涨跌幅 | | 上证指数 | | 4136.16 | 0.84% | | 深证成指 | | 14439.66 | 1.11% | | 创业板 | | 3349.5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [2][44]. Core Insights - The communication industry index has shown a cumulative increase of 1.61% over the past two weeks (January 9 to January 22), outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.91 percentage points, ranking 21st among 31 first-level industries [4][11]. - In January, the communication sector has risen by 2.48%, again surpassing the CSI 300 index by 0.45 percentage points [4][11]. - The report highlights a critical period of annual performance forecasts for listed companies, which serves as a key window to validate the growth potential and market conditions of various sectors [4][39]. Industry Performance Review - The communication sector's six sub-sectors have varied performance over the past two weeks, with the highest increase in the SW Communication Application Value-Added Services (+11.59%) and the lowest in SW Communication Terminals and Accessories (-1.64%) [4][15]. - The report notes that the communication industry is entering a phase of technological iteration and policy benefits, with new growth drivers expected from AI, quantum communication, and low-altitude economy [4][39]. Industry News and Company Announcements - IDC predicts that by 2030, AI agents will become a significant part of the global workforce, with a projected increase from approximately 28.6 million active agents in 2025 to 2.216 billion [16]. - China Mobile has established a special office for computing power strategy, marking a new phase in its systematic approach to computing power deployment [17][19]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reports that AI has penetrated over 70% of business scenarios in leading smart factories [20]. - Tianfu Communication expects a net profit increase of 40%-60% for 2025, driven by the growth in AI and data center construction [23]. - Changxin Bochuang anticipates a net profit increase of 344%-413% for 2025, fueled by demand in cloud computing and AI [24]. Industry Data Updates - As of November 2025, the mobile phone user base reached approximately 1.828 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.20% [27]. - The internet broadband access user base was about 697 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.28% [29]. - The length of optical cable lines reached approximately 74.44 million kilometers, with a year-on-year growth of 3.63% [30]. - By November 2025, the total number of 5G base stations reached 4.83 million, with a net increase of 579,000 from the previous year [36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that align with the themes of "technology commercialization, policy catalysis, and earnings certainty," highlighting potential opportunities in the sector [4][39]. - Recommended stocks include China Mobile (600941.SH), China Telecom (601728.SH), ZTE Corporation (000063.SZ), Changfei Optical Fiber (601869.SH), and Weisheng Information (688100.SH) [40][42].

锂电池产业链 超配（维持） 锂电池产业链双周报(2026/01/09-2026/01/22) 行 业 2025 年全球储能电池出货同比增长超 80% 2026 年 1 月 23 日 投资要点： 分析师：黄秀瑜 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340512090001 行情回顾：截至2026年1月22日，锂电池指数近两周下跌5.75%，跑输沪 深300指数5.46个百分点；锂电池指数本月至今累计下跌4.84%，跑输沪 深300指数6.87个百分点；锂电池指数年初至今下跌4.84%，跑输沪深300 指数6.87个百分点。 周 报 电话：0769-22119455 邮箱：hxy3@dgzq.com.cn 锂电池产业链近两周价格变动： 锂电池指数走势 资料来源：iFinD，东莞证券研究所 锂盐：截至2026年1月22日，电池级碳酸锂均价16.61万元/吨，近两周上 涨19.84%；氢氧化锂(LiOH 56.5%)报价16.02万元/吨，近两周上涨17.19%。 正极材料：动力型磷酸铁锂报价5.48万元/吨，储能型磷酸铁锂报价5.39 万元/吨，近两周分别上涨16.60%和18.46%；NCM523、NCM622、NCM8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [42]. Core Insights - The report highlights positive developments in the China-Europe electric vehicle anti-subsidy negotiations, which are expected to boost market confidence and create a stable business environment for Chinese automakers in Europe. This is anticipated to lead to a release of previously suppressed export demand in the short term [38]. - The automotive sector has shown resilience, with the Shenyin Wanguo automotive index rising 2.84% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.13 percentage points [9][11]. - The report suggests monitoring the export data of various automakers for marginal improvements following the recent policy developments [38]. Industry Data Tracking - In December 2025, China's automotive production was 3.296 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, while sales were 3.272 million units, down 6.2% year-on-year. However, exports reached 753,000 units, marking a 49.4% increase year-on-year [15][16]. - The dealer inventory warning index for November was reported at 57.70%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.50 percentage points [15]. Industry News - Guangdong province is promoting the orderly opening of autonomous driving testing applications, expanding the areas for high-level autonomous driving [23]. - The total number of electric vehicle charging facilities in China has surpassed 20 million, with a year-on-year growth of 49.7% [26]. - The Ministry of Finance has introduced a loan interest subsidy policy for small and micro enterprises, focusing on key industries including new energy and automotive [27]. Corporate News - Hongqi has successfully launched its first solid-state battery prototype, marking a significant step in battery technology [31]. - Geely has introduced the Galaxy V900, a luxury MPV with a starting price of 269,800 yuan, featuring advanced AI capabilities [32]. - Chery has invested in a self-driving chip design company, enhancing its technological capabilities in autonomous driving [34]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are actively expanding into overseas markets, such as BYD and Seres, as well as those in the intelligent driving supply chain like Fuyao Glass and Joyson Electronics [38][39].

2026 年 1 月 23 日 陈伟光 S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 罗炜斌 S0340521020001 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： luoweibin@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 超配（维持） 电子行业双周报（2026/01/09-2026/01/22） 行 业 日系 Resonac 上调覆铜板产品价格 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 电子行业 SAC 执业证书编号： 行情回顾及估值：申万电子板块近2周（01/09-01/22）累计上涨5.84%， 跑赢沪深300指数6.14个百分点，在申万行业中排名第6名；板块1月累 计上涨13.00%，跑赢沪深300指数10.98个百分点，在申万行业中排名第 4名；板块今年累计上涨13.00%，跑赢沪深300指数10.98个百分点，在 申万行业中排名第4名。估值方面，截至1月22日，SW电子板块PE T ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry, expecting it to outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [2]. Core Insights - The communication industry index has shown a cumulative increase of 1.61% over the past two weeks (January 9 to January 22), outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.91 percentage points, ranking 21st among 31 primary industries [4][11]. - The report highlights that the current period is critical for verifying the performance of various sectors and companies as annual earnings forecasts are being disclosed. It emphasizes the importance of monitoring key industry players' performance guidance and order progress, which will provide strong support for valuations [4][40]. - The communication industry is entering a phase of technological iteration and policy benefits, with new growth drivers expected from AI, quantum communication, and low-altitude economy sectors. The recovery of cellular IoT modules and ongoing construction of communication facilities like base stations and data centers are anticipated to create new demands for devices, equipment, and service operations [4][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Communication Industry Market Review - The communication sector has seen a 2.48% increase in January, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.45 percentage points [11]. - The six sub-sectors of the communication industry have varied performance, with the highest increase in the communication application value-added services sector (+11.59%) and the lowest in communication terminal and accessories (-1.64%) [16][19]. 2. Industry News - IDC predicts that by 2030, the number of AI agents will reach 2.216 billion, representing a compound annual growth rate of 139% [17]. - China Mobile has established a special office for computing power strategy, marking a significant organizational adjustment [18][20]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reports that AI has penetrated over 70% of business scenarios in leading smart factories [21]. 3. Company Announcements - Tianfu Communication expects a net profit increase of 40%-60% for 2025, driven by the growth in AI and data center construction [24]. - Changxin Bochuang anticipates a net profit increase of 344%-413% for 2025, fueled by demand in data communication products [25]. - Yilian Network forecasts a slight decline in net profit for 2025, while Huace Navigation expects a growth of 14.84%-18.27% [26][27]. 4. Industry Data Updates - As of November 2025, the mobile phone user base reached approximately 1.828 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.20% [28]. - The length of optical cable lines reached about 74.44 million kilometers by Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.63% [31]. - The total number of 5G base stations reached 4.83 million by November 2025, with a net increase of 579,000 from the previous year [37]. 5. Communication Sector Outlook - The report suggests focusing on companies that align with the themes of "technology commercialization, policy catalysis, and earnings certainty," highlighting firms such as China Mobile, China Telecom, ZTE, and Longfly Fiber [40][41].

Investment Ratings - Banking: Overweight (Maintain) [1] - Securities: Market Weight (Maintain) [1] - Insurance: Overweight (Maintain) [1] Core Insights - The financial indices for banks, securities, and insurance have shown declines of -5.20%, -2.43%, and -7.46% respectively, while the CSI 300 index decreased by -0.29% during the same period [11] - The report indicates a marginal decrease in social financing growth, with December 2025 seeing an increase of 2.21 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 0.65 billion yuan [44] - The report highlights that the recent adjustment of margin requirements from 80% to 100% aims to promote long-term healthy development in the securities market [46] - The insurance sector's research value for the standard life insurance product interest rate is at 1.89%, with a buffer of 14 basis points before triggering a downward adjustment [47] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of January 22, 2026, the banking sector ranked last among 31 industries, with a decline of -5.20% [11] - Notable performers include Changshu Bank (+4.14%) and Pacific Securities (+3.35%), while China Life Insurance saw a decline of -4.29% [11] Financing and Credit - In December 2025, corporate bonds contributed significantly to social financing, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7 billion yuan [44] - The report indicates a decrease in household loans, reflecting a need for further stimulation in consumer spending and real estate purchases [44] Securities Insights - The increase in margin requirements is expected to lower leverage levels and guide funds towards rational participation in the market [46] - The average margin balance has exceeded 2.7 trillion yuan, indicating an uptick in leveraged trading activity [46] Insurance Insights - The current interest rate for standard life insurance products is stable, with a potential downward adjustment threshold set at 1.75% [47] - The report suggests that the 10-year government bond yield is stabilizing, reducing the likelihood of triggering the downward adjustment mechanism in the short term [47] Investment Recommendations - For banks, the report recommends focusing on regional banks with strong performance, such as Chengdu Bank and Ningbo Bank [44] - In the insurance sector, companies like China Pacific Insurance and Ping An are highlighted for their growth potential [47] - In the securities sector, firms like Zheshang Securities and CITIC Securities are recommended due to their strong fundamentals and market positioning [46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the consumer services industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [31]. Core Insights - The consumer services industry index rose by 2.98% from January 9 to January 22, 2026, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 3.27 percentage points during the same period [7]. - All sub-sectors within the consumer services industry experienced gains, with the comprehensive services, tourism and leisure, hotel and catering, and education sectors increasing by 7.43%, 1.82%, 5.70%, and 3.00% respectively [8]. - A total of 47 listed companies in the industry reported positive returns, with the top five performers being Shaanxi Tourism (up 22.73%), Foreign Service Holdings (up 19.64%), Core International (up 15.83%), Zhongxin Tourism (up 14.19%), and Jiuhua Tourism (up 12.69%) [11]. - The overall price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the consumer services industry is approximately 41.25 times, which is an increase from the previous period but still below the average valuation of 42.42 times since 2016 [14]. Industry News - The Philippines announced a visa exemption for Chinese citizens, effective January 16, 2026, allowing a stay of up to 14 days [20]. - Cambodia will trial a visa exemption for Chinese citizens for four months starting June 15, 2026 [20]. - Ctrip is under investigation for alleged monopolistic practices by the National Market Supervision Administration [24]. - China Duty Free Group's subsidiary, CDF International, plans to acquire DFS's tourism retail business in Greater China for up to $395 million [26]. Weekly Outlook - The report anticipates that the extended Spring Festival holiday will continue to drive domestic tourism demand, with a peak in travel expected around February 6 and again on February 13 and 14 [31]. - The report suggests monitoring themes such as ice and snow tourism and duty-free shopping, as well as potential asset injections from local state-owned enterprises into scenic areas and the upward cycle of hotels [31]. - Recommended stocks include Jinjiang Hotels (600754), Changbai Mountain (603099), Emei Mountain A (000888), and China Duty Free Group (601888) [32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [4][26]. Core Insights - The SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry underperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, with a decline of 0.75% from January 9 to January 22, 2026, lagging behind the index by approximately 0.46 percentage points [11]. - Most sub-sectors within the industry recorded positive returns during the same period, with offline pharmacies and raw materials leading the gains at 3.14% and 2.34%, respectively. In contrast, the pharmaceutical distribution and chemical preparation sectors experienced declines of 3.26% and 2.87% [12][13]. - Approximately 66% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns, with the top performer, Baolait, showing a weekly increase of 60.88%. Conversely, Luyan Pharmaceutical had the largest decline at 39.07% [13][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index showed a decline of 0.75%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.46 percentage points [11]. - Most sub-sectors achieved positive returns, particularly offline pharmacies and raw materials, while pharmaceutical distribution and chemical preparations faced declines [12]. 2. Industry News - Recent policy changes in Hebei Province have lifted restrictions on the quantity of drugs that hospitals can stock, allowing for more flexibility in drug procurement and usage [24]. 3. Company Announcements - Enhua Pharmaceutical announced the approval of its drug registration certificate for a new injection, which is expected to enhance its market position [25]. 4. Industry Outlook - The report suggests a focus on investment opportunities in the brain-computer interface sector, which is highlighted as a key area for future growth. Specific companies to watch include Mindray Medical, Yuyuan Medical, and others across various segments [26][28].