证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 14 日 星期五 【下周策略】 ◆下周大势研判：震荡巩固 从本周市场来看： 首先，10 月信贷社融增速收敛，企业信贷增速放缓、居民融资 意愿承压。 其次，10 月份经济运行基本平稳，稳中有进态势持续。 最后，政策将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，保持社会融资 条件相对宽松。 总体来看，本周沪指在 4000 点附近震荡整理。10 月信贷社融 增速放缓，企业信贷增长减弱，居民融资意愿仍偏低。10 月经济运 行总体平稳，延续稳中有进态势，但也面临外部环境不确定、内部 结构调整等挑战，经济平稳运行存在压力。不过随着扩内需、稳就 业、稳预期等政策持续发力并落地见效，经济有望实现质的有效提 升与量的合理增长。货币政策方面，在全年 5%左右增速目标预计可 达的背景下，货币政策短期加码的紧迫性降低，重点转向既有政策 的落实与跨周期工具储备。货币宽松方向不变，降准、降息仍可期， 节奏上更侧重"相机抉择"。后续需关注 12 月上中旬政治局会议和 中央经济工作会议的政策定调，以及美联储动向与"十五五"规划 衔接对政策的影响。从技术面来看，当前沪指在 4000 点附近震荡 整理，资金分歧有所加大， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, indicating that the industry is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [50]. Core Insights - The mechanical equipment industry has experienced a decline of 1.75% in the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.58 percentage points, ranking 27th among 31 industries [2][13]. - Year-to-date, the mechanical equipment sector has increased by 33.14%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 13.65 percentage points, ranking 7th among 31 industries [13][27]. - The report highlights the ongoing technological innovations leading to industry upgrades, particularly in the electrification and dexterous hand segments of engineering machinery [4][46]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of November 13, 2025, the mechanical equipment sector has seen a 1.75% decline in the last two weeks, with the general equipment sector showing the highest increase of 0.40% among its sub-sectors [2][21]. - The top three performing stocks in the mechanical equipment sector over the past two weeks are Huafeng Co., World Co., and Jikai Co., with increases of 46.59%, 40.02%, and 36.22% respectively [20][22]. Valuation - The current PE TTM for the mechanical equipment sector is 31.51 times, with sub-sectors showing varied valuations: General Equipment at 43.79 times, Specialized Equipment at 31.81 times, and Automation Equipment at 49.06 times [3][25]. Industry News - The report notes that the demand for engineering machinery is expected to be supported by the commencement of major national projects and accelerated funding [5][46]. - Exports of engineering machinery products have shown significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 29.78% in September [5][46]. Company Announcements - The report suggests focusing on companies like Huichuan Technology and Green Harmonic, which are positioned well in the market due to their strong competitive advantages and growth potential [44][47].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [1][32]. Core Insights - Domestic technology giants are actively investing in supernode technology, presenting investment opportunities in domestic AI computing power [1][28]. - The SW computer sector has seen a cumulative decline of 2.64% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.48 percentage points, ranking 28th among 31 first-level industries [10][13]. - The sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 55.36 times, placing it in the 88.40th percentile over the past five years and the 77.89th percentile over the past ten years [20][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW computer sector has experienced a cumulative decline of 2.64% from October 31 to November 13, 2025, and a decline of 3.73% in November, while it has increased by 20.45% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.95 percentage points [10][13][14]. 2. Valuation Situation - As of November 13, 2025, the SW computer sector's PE TTM (excluding negative values) stands at 55.36 times, which is in the 88.40th percentile for the last five years and the 77.89th percentile for the last ten years [20][22]. 3. Industry News - Major developments include the launch of the Kimi K2 Thinking model by Moon's Dark Side, the introduction of the world's first single-cabinet 640-card supernode scaleX640 by Inspur, and Tencent's announcement of lower-than-expected capital expenditures for the year [21][23][28]. - Anthropic plans to invest $50 billion in a data center in the U.S., while Baidu has released new Kunlun chips M100 and M300 for AI applications [21][23]. 4. Company Announcements - Recent announcements include a share transfer agreement by Jin Chengzi and a joint venture by Jin Yi Technology to establish a company focused on energy technology [24][25][27]. 5. Weekly Perspective - The report highlights the significance of the scaleX640 supernode, which enhances computing power and efficiency, and emphasizes the importance of domestic AI computing power investment opportunities [28][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [64]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals industry has shown resilience, with a 0.99% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.15 percentage points [3][13]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for copper due to increasing demand in the renewable energy sector, despite a projected global copper surplus of 178,000 tons in 2025 [6][59]. - Precious metals are experiencing volatility, with gold prices expected to rise again after a period of fluctuation, supported by declining dollar credit and reduced risk aversion [60][61]. - The energy metals sector is benefiting from new regulations in lithium mining, which are expected to support prices and production costs [61]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of November 13, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has increased by 3.08% this month and 81.32% year-to-date, ranking first among 31 industries [13][18]. - The energy metals sector rose by 5.68% this month, while the precious metals sector increased by 2.28% [18]. Price Analysis - As of November 13, 2025, LME prices are as follows: copper at $10,859/ton, aluminum at $2,877/ton, lead at $2,075/ton, zinc at $3,040.50/ton, nickel at $14,955/ton, and tin at $37,065/ton [24][59]. - COMEX gold is priced at $4,174.50/oz, and silver at $52.23/oz as of November 13, 2025 [35][41]. Industry News - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts a 1.4% growth rate for global copper mines in 2025, primarily due to significant accidents at major mines [59]. - New regulations in Jiangxi province regarding lithium mining are expected to increase production costs, thereby supporting lithium prices [53][61]. Company Announcements - Western Mining (601168) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) are recommended for attention due to their strong performance and growth potential in the non-ferrous metals sector [62][59].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [48]. Core Viewpoints - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 4.87% from October 31, 2025, to November 13, 2025, exceeding the index by approximately 5.04 percentage points [11]. - All sub-sectors recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable increases in agricultural product processing (9.03%), fishery (8.12%), animal health (5.57%), planting (4.57%), breeding (2.94%), and feed industry (2.45%) [12]. - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry is approximately 2.94 times, indicating a recovery in valuation, yet it remains at a relatively low historical level, around the 65.9 percentile since 2006 [17]. Industry Important Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three-way cross pigs decreased from 12.52 CNY/kg to 11.74 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn and soybean meal showed fluctuations, with corn priced at 2260.39 CNY/ton and soybean meal at 3072 CNY/ton as of November 13, 2025 [21][23]. - **Profitability**: As of November 14, 2025, self-breeding pig farming reported a loss of 114.81 CNY per head, while purchasing piglets resulted in a loss of 205.64 CNY per head, indicating a decline in profitability compared to the previous week [26]. - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks was 3.49 CNY per chick, slightly down from the previous week, while the average price of white feather broilers increased to 7.12 CNY/kg, with a loss of 0.95 CNY per bird, showing a slight improvement in profitability [28][31]. Industry Important News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized accelerating the self-reliance of seed technology and ensuring the autonomy of seed sources during a recent meeting, highlighting the importance of domestic seed industry leaders [35]. Company Important News - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and others, which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing industry trends and developments [48][49].

基础化工 超配（维持） 基础化工行业双周报（2025/10/31-2025/11/13） 10 月份化学原料和化学制品制造业增加值同比增长 7.1% 2025 年 11 月 14 日 分析师：苏治彬 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523080001 电话：0769-22110925 邮箱： suzhibin@dgzq.com.cn 行业指数走势 资料来源：iFinD，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 ◼ 行情回顾：截至11月13日，近两周申万基础化工指数上涨8.4%，跑赢沪 深300指数8.5个百分点，在31个申万行业中排第1名；年初至今，申万基 础化工指数上涨35.9%，跑赢沪深300指数16.4个百分点，在31个申万行 业中排第6名。 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 周 报 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 投资要点： | 图 | 1：近两周 31 个申万行业指数涨跌幅情况（单位：%）（截至 | | | 11 | 月 | 13 | 日） | 3 | | --- | --- | -- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [2] Core Views - The report highlights the release of the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Integrated Development of New Energy" by the National Energy Administration, emphasizing the importance of integrated development in enhancing the reliability and competitiveness of new energy by 2030 [5][44] - The electric equipment sector has shown strong performance, with a year-to-date increase of 53.95%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 34.45 percentage points [12][16] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies benefiting from the booming development of new energy storage technologies [44] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of November 13, 2025, the electric equipment industry rose by 5.35% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.52 percentage points, ranking 6th among 31 industries [12][16] - The wind power equipment sector decreased by 4.04%, while the photovoltaic equipment sector increased by 3.80% [16][18] Valuation and Industry Data - The electric equipment sector's PE (TTM) is 35.82 times, with sub-sectors like motors and other power equipment showing higher valuations [25] - The battery sector has a PE (TTM) of 36.38 times, indicating strong investor interest [25] Industry News - The report discusses the National Energy Administration's guidance on promoting the integrated development of new energy, which aims to enhance the reliability and market competitiveness of new energy sources [39][40] - It also mentions the government's focus on clean energy applications in various industries, including textiles and food processing [39] Company Announcements - The report includes recent announcements from companies like Fueneng Technology and HeShun Electric, highlighting their strategic moves and project wins [41][43] Weekly Perspective - The report emphasizes the importance of integrated development in the new energy sector and suggests monitoring companies that are leading in technology and scale [44][45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [54]. Core Insights - The October CPI turned positive year-on-year, indicating a recovery in demand, with a 0.2% increase compared to the previous month [51]. - The SW food and beverage industry index rose by 4.28% from October 31 to November 13, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 4.45 percentage points [12]. - All sub-sectors within the food and beverage industry outperformed the CSI 300 index during the same period, with the pre-processed food sector showing the highest increase of 13.07% [13]. - Approximately 96% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns, with notable gainers including Huanlejia (+76.90%) and Sanyuan Shares (+49.79%) [16]. - The overall PE (TTM) for the SW food and beverage industry is about 22.00 times, which is below the five-year average of 32 times [19]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW food and beverage industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a rise of 4.28% from October 31 to November 13, ranking eleventh among the primary sectors [12]. - All sub-sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the pre-processed food sector leading at 13.07% [13]. - About 96% of stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, with significant increases from Huanlejia, Sanyuan Shares, and Zhu Laoliu [16]. Industry Data Tracking - **Baijiu Sector**: The price of Feitian decreased to 1640 RMB/bottle, down 20 RMB from October 30, while the prices of Puwu and Guojiao 1573 remained stable [24]. - **Condiment Sector**: Prices for soybean meal and white sugar increased, while the price of glass packaging rose slightly [27]. - **Beer Sector**: The price of barley decreased to 2210 RMB/ton, while the prices of glass and aluminum increased [33]. - **Dairy Sector**: The average price of fresh milk fell to 3.02 RMB/kg, a decrease of 0.01 RMB from October 31 [38]. - **Meat Products Sector**: The average wholesale price of pork rose to 18.12 RMB/kg, an increase of 0.16 RMB from October 30 [39]. Industry News - Meituan Flash Purchase reported a 562% year-on-year increase in baijiu transaction volume on November 1 [42]. - The export value of baijiu from Zunyi increased by 551.8% from January to September [43]. - In October, the national baijiu price index fell by 0.17% month-on-month [46]. Company Announcements - Guizhou Moutai announced a share repurchase plan with a budget of 15 to 30 billion RMB [49]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 23.957 RMB per share, totaling approximately 300.01 billion RMB [50]. Weekly Industry Perspective - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of demand following the positive CPI in October, with a focus on the baijiu sector's performance amid weak consumption recovery [51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [2][4]. Core Views - The real estate sector is currently in a "bottoming" phase, with new home and second-hand home transaction areas still showing negative year-on-year growth, although the decline is narrowing compared to 2024. New construction starts and development investments continue to decline, and funding is tight, indicating an ongoing deleveraging cycle. The overall loss level of the industry has further expanded compared to the second quarter, suggesting that the fundamentals remain weak. Future policy support and stabilization of the industry are expected to drive market trends [4][28]. - The building materials sector, particularly cement, is benefiting from a dual advantage of cost and policy due to the elimination of high-energy, low-efficiency capacities. The sector is expected to see stable support from urban village renovations and the acceleration of affordable housing construction. Current valuations are at historical lows, making certain stocks attractive for defensive and long-term investment [4][50]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector - As of November 13, 2025, the Shenwan Real Estate Index has increased by 2.07% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.32 percentage points, ranking 20th among 31 sectors. Year-to-date, the index has risen by 11.37% [13][17]. - The report highlights that the industry is transitioning from a high-leverage, high-turnover model to one focused on quality, service, and sustainability, with urban renewal expected to unlock potential in existing stock [4][28]. Building Materials Sector - The Shenwan Building Materials Index has risen by 2.63% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.3 percentage points, ranking 17th among 31 sectors. Year-to-date, the index has increased by 23.38% [29][32]. - The cement industry is expected to see a significant increase in profitability due to the implementation of carbon trading regulations and the elimination of inefficient capacities. The sector is supported by ongoing construction projects and a favorable valuation environment [4][50]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields, such as Poly Developments (600048), China Merchants Shekou (001979), and Binhai Group (002244) in the real estate sector, and Conch Cement (600585) and Huaxin Cement (600801) in the building materials sector [4][53].

Market Overview - The three major indices opened lower but rose throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high, closing at 4029.50, up 0.73% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13476.52, up 1.78%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.55% to 3201.75 [1] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Electric Power Equipment (up 4.31%), Nonferrous Metals (up 4.01%), and Basic Chemicals (up 2.62%) [2] - Conversely, the underperforming sectors were Utilities (down 0.27%), Communications (down 0.21%), and Oil & Gas (down 0.12%) [2] Market Outlook - The market experienced a strong rally, with significant gains in the lithium battery supply chain and consumer sectors, while the oil and gas sector faced declines [3][5] - The overall market saw more stocks rising than falling, with 104 stocks hitting the daily limit up [5] - The report anticipates that monetary policy will remain accommodative in the short term, with potential adjustments based on economic performance [5] News Highlights - The National Energy Administration released guidelines to promote the integration of new energy with emerging industries, focusing on large-scale development of wind and solar energy [4] - The domestic gold jewelry prices have surged, with some brands exceeding 1310 yuan per gram, marking a new high [4] - A factory for electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles has begun trial production in Guangzhou, indicating a move towards large-scale manufacturing in the low-altitude economy [4]