Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "In line with the market" for the basic chemical industry [6][4][5] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical industry index fell by 5.89% in December 2024, ranking 25th among 30 first-level industries, with a year-to-date decline of 3.92% [6][8] - The report highlights the strong performance of the acrylic acid industry chain, with significant price increases in products such as acrylic acid, petroleum coke, and butadiene [4][6] - Investment strategies for January 2025 suggest focusing on three main lines: resource products, polyester filament, and new chemical materials [4][6] Market Review - In December 2024, the basic chemical industry index underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.65 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 6.36 percentage points [6][8] - Among 33 sub-industries, rubber additives, fluorochemicals, and synthetic resins showed positive performance, while carbon fiber and lithium battery chemicals lagged behind [9][8] - A total of 514 stocks in the basic chemical sector saw 85 gainers and 426 losers, with the top gainers including Huifeng Diamond and Xinhang New Materials [9][13] Product Price Tracking - International oil prices showed an upward trend in December 2024, with WTI crude oil rising by 5.47% to $71.72 per barrel [6][8] - Among 318 tracked products, 104 saw price increases, with notable rises in refrigerants and acrylic acid products [6][8] - The report indicates a general decline in chemical product prices, with a significant drop in caustic soda and industrial naphthalene [6][8] Industry and Company News - The total profit of the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry was 380.47 billion yuan from January to November 2024, reflecting a 9.3% year-on-year decline [14][15] - The report discusses the expansion plans of Guizhou Phosphate Group for wet-process phosphoric acid, aiming to increase annual capacity from 2 million tons to 2.7 million tons by mid-2025 [26][28] - The Shandong provincial government has launched an action plan for the high-quality development of the fine chemical industry, targeting an average annual revenue growth of 8% by 2027 [30][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the computer industry, indicating a performance in line with the broader market [2]. Core Insights - The software industry in China shows a slight decline in growth, with software business revenue reaching 12.29 trillion yuan from January to November 2024, growing by 10.7%, down from 13.4% in 2023 [7][8]. - The report highlights the ongoing trend of domestic production, particularly in response to intensified U.S. sanctions against China's technology sector, with the import dependency of integrated circuits at 80% [3][30]. - Significant developments in computing power and AI applications are noted, with over half of the provinces implementing policies for computing infrastructure, and major AI companies ramping up investments [3][36]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - Software business revenue for January to November 2024 is 12.29 trillion yuan, a 10.7% increase year-on-year, reflecting a decline from the previous year's growth rate [7]. - The total profit for the software industry in the same period is 1.4822 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, which is lower than the revenue growth [8][9]. - Software exports reached 51.01 billion USD, marking a 4.8% increase year-on-year, showing a recovery compared to the previous year [9]. Domestic Production - The report discusses the impact of U.S. sanctions, with 140 Chinese entities added to the U.S. Entity List, affecting AI and semiconductor industries [18][19]. - The domestic integrated circuit import dependency is at 80%, indicating a 1% decrease from the previous month, with a potential for further decline [30]. - The revenue of the domestic server company Super Fusion is expected to exceed 40 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting significant growth in the Huawei server ecosystem [32][35]. Computing Power - Policies for computing infrastructure have been introduced in over half of the provinces, emphasizing the importance of computing power in local development [36]. - The first liquid-cooled server standard in China has been released, with expectations for the GB300 model to enhance cooling technology [3][36]. - Major AI companies are increasing their spending plans, indicating a robust investment landscape in the AI sector [3]. Artificial Intelligence - The central economic work conference at the end of 2024 focused on "Artificial Intelligence +", highlighting the strategic importance of AI in economic development [3]. - The report notes a price war among domestic large model providers, driven by increased model invocation rates [3][36]. - Upcoming releases from major AI firms, including OpenAI's O3, are anticipated to further enhance the capabilities of AI models [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the semiconductor industry [1]. Core Insights - The domestic AI computing power industry chain is accelerating, driven by the rapid growth of the Doubao AI model, which has seen a daily token call volume increase from 120 billion in May 2024 to over 4 trillion by December 2024, representing a growth of over 33 times in just seven months [6][29]. - The semiconductor industry is currently in an upward cycle, with AI being a significant driving force for growth [6][29]. Summary by Sections 1. December 2024 Semiconductor Market Performance - The domestic semiconductor industry saw a decline of 0.29% in December 2024, underperforming the 0.47% increase in the CSI 300 index [11]. - Year-to-date, the semiconductor industry has risen by 24.63% [11]. 2. Global Semiconductor Monthly Sales Growth - Global semiconductor sales in November 2024 increased by 20.7% year-on-year, marking the 13th consecutive month of growth [22]. - The sales figure for November 2024 was approximately $578 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 1.6% [22]. - The forecast for the global semiconductor market in 2024 has been raised to a 19% year-on-year growth, with expectations of a 12.5% growth in 2025 [25][26]. 3. AI and Consumer Electronics Demand - Consumer demand is gradually recovering, with global smartphone shipments in Q3 2024 increasing by 5% year-on-year [6]. - The AI smartphone and AI PC penetration rates are expected to rise rapidly, contributing to the recovery of global PC shipments [6][29]. 4. Inventory and Capacity Utilization - Global semiconductor equipment sales in Q3 2024 grew by 19% year-on-year, with Chinese semiconductor equipment sales increasing by 17% [6]. - The inventory levels of some domestic chip manufacturers continued to decline in Q3 2024, indicating ongoing improvements [6]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities within the AI computing power supply chain, including AI computing chips, copper connections, PCBs, server power supplies, and liquid cooling systems [6][29].

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：Wind，中原证券研究所 -11% -6% 0% 6% 11% 17% 23% 28% 2024.01 2024.05 2024.09 2025.01 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | 3,211.39 | -0.58 | | 深证成指 | 9,976.00 | 0.32 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,779.88 | -0.25 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,593.18 | -0.16 | | 中证 500 | 5,456.59 | -0.09 | | 中证 1000 | 6,116.76 | 0.33 | | 国证 20 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations with resistance at 3228 points, showing a mixed performance across sectors on January 9, 2025 [2][3][6] - Key sectors performing well included military industry, home appliances, electronic components, and automotive parts, while shipping ports, jewelry, oil, and chemical pharmaceuticals lagged [2][3][6] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3211.39 points, down 0.58%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.11% [6][7] Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 13.73 times and 34.13 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][15] - Recent policy signals from the Political Bureau meeting suggest a more proactive macroeconomic policy aimed at stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, boosting consumption, and implementing moderate monetary easing [3][15] - The market is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend, with short-term investment opportunities identified in electronic components, military, automotive, and home appliance sectors [3][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "In Line with the Market" investment rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [6][4]. Core Insights - The light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 10.28% in December 2024, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 6.51 percentage points [14][16]. - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies, such as the "old-for-new" program, which is expected to boost demand in the home furnishings sector and improve overall industry performance [6][4]. - The paper and home furnishing segments are showing signs of recovery, with increased sales and improved pricing dynamics due to policy support and market demand [6][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - The light industry manufacturing index fell by 10.28% in December 2024, ranking 23rd among 30 sectors [14][16]. - All sub-sectors within light industry manufacturing experienced declines, with furniture down by 7.34% and packaging down by 10.52% [16]. - The sector's PE (TTM) ratio stood at 30.84, within the 43.19% historical percentile, indicating a slight decline in valuation [20][21]. Key Data Tracking Paper Industry - The revenue of large-scale paper enterprises reached CNY 13,154.6 billion in the first 11 months of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9% [22]. - Prices for waste yellow board paper increased to CNY 1,600 per ton, reflecting a 1.46% rise from the previous month [25]. - The production of corrugated paper and boxboard saw price increases, with boxboard averaging CNY 3,774 per ton, up 3.21% [32]. Home Furnishing - The real estate sector showed signs of improvement, with new residential sales area increasing by 4.22% year-on-year in November 2024 [66]. - The furniture manufacturing sector reported a slight revenue increase of 0.8% year-on-year, with total revenue reaching CNY 6,016.8 billion [73]. - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to continue driving demand in the home furnishings market, with retail sales of furniture increasing by 10.5% year-on-year in November 2024 [77].

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -11% -5% 0% 6% 12% 17% 23% 28% 2024.01 2024.05 2024.09 2025.01 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | 3,230.17 | 0.02 | | 深证成指 | 9,944.64 | -0.54 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,789.22 | -0.18 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,598.90 | -0.18 | | 中证 500 | 5,461.59 | -0.42 | | 中证 1000 | 6,116.76 | 0.33 | | 国证 2000 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 家电军工行业领涨 A 股先抑后扬 ——市场分析 相关报告 《市场分析：成长行业领涨 A 股小幅上行》 2025-01-07 《市场分析：有色金属医药行业领涨 A 股小 幅震荡》 2025-01-06 《市场分析：观望情绪提升 A 股宽幅震荡》 2025-01-03 联系人： 李智 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2025 年 01 月 08 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周三（01 月 08 日）A 股市场先抑后扬、宽幅震荡，早盘股指低开后 震荡回落，盘中股指在 3175 点附近获得支撑，午后股指企稳回升， 盘中军工、家电、航运港口以及电机等行业表现较好；钢铁、煤炭、 有色金属以及多元金融等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈现宽幅震荡 的运行特征。创业板市场周三震荡整固，创业板成分指数全天表现与 主板市场基本同步。 ◼ 后市研判及投资建议 1. A 股市场走势综述 周三（01 月 08 日）A 股市场先抑后扬、宽幅震荡，早盘股指低开后震荡回落，盘中股指在 3175 点附近获得支撑，午后股指 ...

传媒 《传媒行业年度策略：关注"复苏周期、出海、 高股息"三大维度》 2024-11-28 《传媒行业月报：前三季度业绩承压，关注游 戏、广告、出版板块》 2024-11-15 投资要点： 我们认为虽然 2024 年国内电影市场的表现比较低迷，需求乏力。 但影院观影不论在内容上还是形式上仍具有独特的不可替代性，例 如大屏带来的震撼的画面和音效冲击、黑暗场景下更沉浸的观影体 验、较长的内容时间为深刻的思想和艺术表达提供空间。在内容体 验之外，观影也是约会、聚会、合家欢等线下社交的重要形式之一。 11727 展望 2025 年，我们认为，在内容供给端，影片备案、立项的数量 自 2023 年有所回升，在 1-2 年的制作周期下预计 2025 年能够继续 为新片数量提供保障。在市场需求端，包括国家和各省市的观影补 贴以及片方下调结算价的市场化行为能够进一步降低观众的观影 成本，帮助观影需求回升。 短期关注 2025 年春节档的表现。考虑到春节档是全年中最重要的 档期之一，能够在较短的时间内释放大量的票房能量，因此也吸引 了较多优质国产影片定档在春节，档期内影片的整体品质也处于全 年较高的水平。叠加多地的观影补贴能够覆 ...

联系人：李智 通信 分析师：李璐毅 登记编码：S0730524120001 lily2@ccnew.com 021-50586278 国家实施手机等数码产品购新补贴，智能 手机市场平稳复苏 ——通信行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(上调) 通信相对沪深 300 指数表现 相关报告 《通信行业月报：运营商大数据业务高速增 长，AI 手机渗透率逐步提升》 2024-12-11 《通信行业年度策略：向新求质，AI 驱动产 业变革》 2024-12-05 《通信行业月报：北美云厂商资本开支高增， 对 美 光 模 块 出 口 同 比 增 长 超 七 成 》 2024-11-08 通信 iPhone 16 系列等头部手机品牌旗舰产品的全面量产，相关零部件 供应进入大规模生产阶段。创新周期下出货量增长，稼动率有望提 升，AI 手机创新化、高端化或带来产品平均售价的提高和毛利率的 改善。建议关注：中兴通讯、信维通信。2）运营商具备高股息的 配置价值，年中和年末两次现金分红，分红比例持续提升。央行引 导商业银行向上市公司和主要股东提供贷款，用于回购和增持上市 公司股票，央行新政策强化了对高股息公司市值管理的支持。运营 ...