充换电服务业以及信息传输、软件和信息 技术服务业用电量增长较快 ——电力及公用事业行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 03 日 登记编码：S0730522100003 电力及公用事业 分析师：陈拓 chentuo@ccnew.com 投资要点： ⚫ 行情回顾：11 月电力及公用事业指数表现强于市场。截至 2025 年 11 月 28 日，11 月中信电力及公用事业指数下跌 1.80%，跑赢沪深 300（-2.46%）0.66 百分点。子行业方面，11 月涨跌幅排名依次为： 供热或其他(3.61%)、燃气(3.39%)、水电(-0.85%)、环保及水务 (-2.18%)、其他发电(-2.68%)、电网(-3.58%)、火电(-3.59%)。 ⚫ 全国电力供需情况 需求端：2025 年 10 月单月用电量增速达到两位数。根据国家能源 局数据，10 月全社会用电量 8572 亿千瓦时，同比增长 10.4%。充 换电服务业以及信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业用电量增长较 快。 供给端：根据国家统计局数据，22025 年 10 月，我国规上工业发 电量同比增长 7.9%。 ...

Macro Environment - Economic data for November shows weak recovery in investment and consumption, with exports declining due to high base effects and holiday impacts. However, CPI has turned positive year-on-year, and the decline in PPI has narrowed, indicating signs of mild recovery in prices. The export structure has improved, with high-tech product exports showing strong resilience [6][10][12] - The central bank's third-quarter monetary policy report emphasizes maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions and supporting "stable growth" through counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. Various government departments have introduced policies to stimulate domestic demand and private investment [6][11][67] Market and Industry Performance Bond Market Review - In November, the bond futures market faced pressure, with the ten-year main contract falling by 0.67% and the thirty-year bond dropping by 1.84%. This decline was influenced by three factors: cooling expectations for rate cuts, credit concerns stemming from the Vanke bond incident, and a weakening of the traditional "stock-bond seesaw" effect. The outlook for December suggests a stabilization in the ten-year bond futures, transitioning into a slight oscillation pattern [6][45][67] Stock Market Review - The equity market in November continued to favor value over growth, with the performance of various sectors showing mixed results. The consumption sector rose by 1.02%, while technology and advanced manufacturing sectors saw declines of 3.5% and 3.41%, respectively. The overall market sentiment indicates a cautious approach among investors [6][51][57] Industry Performance - The top-performing industries in November included comprehensive (4.07%), banking (2.99%), and textile and apparel (2.95%). Conversely, the worst performers were pharmaceutical biology (-3.62%), non-bank financials (-3.81%), and electronics (-5.04%) [57][64] Monthly Allocation Recommendations - Looking ahead to December, the easing of US-China trade relations and key policy meetings are expected to influence market risk appetite. A balanced investment strategy is recommended, focusing on high-dividend defensive assets like banks and utilities, while also considering the improved valuation attractiveness of TMT and AI sectors following November's adjustments [6][67]

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 -13% -7% -1% 4% 10% 16% 22% 28% 2024.12 2025.04 2025.08 2025.11 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,897.71 | | -0.42 | | 深证成指 | | | 13,056.70 | -0.68 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,554.33 | | -0.48 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,425.70 | | -0.54 | | 中证 | 500 | 7, ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 船舶医药行业领涨 A 股震荡整固 ——市场分析 相关报告 《市场分析：通信半导体领涨 A 股震荡上行》 2025-12-01 《市场分析：汽车锂电行业领涨 A 股小幅上 行》 2025-12-01 周二（12 月 02 日）A 股市场低开低走、小幅震荡整理，早盘股指低 开后震荡回落，盘中沪指在 3898 点附近获得支撑，午后股指维持震 荡，盘中船舶制造、医药商业、消费电子以及煤炭等行业表现较 好；贵金属、能源金属、生物制品以及软件开发等行业表现较弱， 沪指全天基本呈现小幅整理的运行特征。创业板市场周二震荡回 落，创业板成分指数全天表现弱于主板市场。 ◼ 后市研判及投资建议 周二 A 股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡整理，早盘股指低开后震荡回 落，盘中沪指在 3898 点附近获得支撑，午后股指维持震荡，盘中船 舶制造、医药商业、消费电子以及煤炭等行业表现较好；贵金属、 能源金属、生物制品以及软件开发等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本 呈现小幅整理的运行特征。当前上证综指与创业板指数的平均市盈 率分别为 16 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a gradual recovery in various industries, with a focus on investment opportunities arising from supply and demand dynamics [6][14][16] - The AI sector is experiencing rapid growth, with significant advancements in technology and applications, particularly in China [16][17] - The chemical industry is expected to see a marginal recovery in profitability due to improved demand and reduced investment pressures [13][14] Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a slight upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,914.01, reflecting a 0.65% increase [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 15.95 and 48.16, respectively, indicating a favorable long-term investment environment [8][9] International Market Performance - Major international indices, such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500, experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones closing at 30,772.79, down 0.67% [4] Industry Strategies - The chemical industry is entering a phase of improved stability, with a focus on supply-side constraints and demand recovery, particularly in agricultural chemicals and fluorochemicals [13][14] - The AI industry is projected to benefit from increased domestic demand and government support, with a focus on integrated circuits and software [16][17] - The food and beverage sector is facing challenges with declining revenue growth, but opportunities exist in the snack and beverage markets, which are expected to grow significantly [20][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical, as well as opportunities in the AI and semiconductor industries [15][16] - In the food and beverage sector, companies like Baoli Food and Dongpeng Beverage are recommended due to their growth potential in the snack and soft drink markets [21] Key Data Updates - The semiconductor industry continues to show strong growth, with global sales reaching $69.47 billion, a 25.1% year-on-year increase [36] - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with a focus on capacity reduction and optimization of the competitive landscape [25][23]

Core Insights - The basic chemical industry is gradually entering a prosperous phase, with investment opportunities identified from both supply and demand sides [1][7] - The industry is expected to see a marginal recovery in profitability due to the gradual rebound in downstream demand and a slowdown in new capacity releases [7][11] - The report maintains a "market perform" rating for the industry, suggesting a focus on integrated leading companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Satellite Chemical, and Baofeng Energy [7][8] Industry Overview - The chemical industry has shown signs of bottoming out, with profitability stabilizing after a decline in 2023 [11][15] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry achieved a revenue of CNY 67,246.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, while total profits fell by 4.4% [13][17] - The chemical product price index has seen a cumulative decline of 10.29% since the beginning of 2025, indicating ongoing price pressures [13][14] Sub-Industry Performance - Among 33 sub-industries, 18 reported revenue growth, with significant increases in carbon fiber (49.12%), synthetic resin (33.63%), and lithium battery chemicals (21.31%) [17][18] - Conversely, industries such as organic silicon and soda ash experienced substantial revenue declines of 17.37% and 15.75%, respectively [18][21] - Profitability varied widely, with pesticide, polyester, and fluorochemical sectors showing strong profit growth, while organic silicon and rubber products faced severe profit declines [18][22] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics, such as organic silicon and polyester filament, as well as those benefiting from rapid growth in downstream energy storage demand, like phosphate chemicals [7][8] - The biobased fuel industry is highlighted as having significant growth potential due to national policy support and the dual carbon policy [7][8] - The overall investment strategy emphasizes structural opportunities within the industry, driven by regulatory changes and demand recovery [7][8]

Group 1 - The computer industry is showing signs of improvement in both revenue and profit for 2025, with software business revenue reaching 11.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.0% [11][13] - The overall revenue for the computer industry in the first three quarters of 2025 is 1.51 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.1% after excluding the high proportion of Industrial Fulian [13][16] - The net profit for the industry in the first three quarters of 2025 is 184 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57.4% [16] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes self-sufficiency in key areas such as integrated circuits and basic software, with increased government procurement for domestic innovation [25][26] - The EDA sector has become a focal point of U.S. export controls, accelerating the demand for domestic alternatives [29][30] - The release of HarmonyOS 6 marks a significant milestone for Huawei, with terminal numbers surpassing 23 million, indicating a strong growth trajectory for domestic operating systems [38][41] Group 3 - The AI and computing concepts have shown significant growth, with the AI computing demand driving the "East Data West Computing" concept to rise by 146.8% in 2025 [20][21] - The overall valuation of the computer industry is above historical averages, with a TTM valuation of 55.33 times as of November 27, 2025 [21][24] - Domestic AI chip manufacturers are experiencing accelerated growth, with companies like Cambrian and Haiguang reporting substantial revenue increases [48][49] Group 4 - The integration of AI applications is expected to enhance the competitive advantage of integrated AI manufacturers, with DeepSeek collaborating with domestic chip manufacturers to optimize performance [4][4] - The demand for AI servers is increasing, requiring manufacturers to enhance their overall system design capabilities [3][3] - The trend towards liquid cooling technology is becoming mainstream as AI chip performance continues to improve [3][3]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [14]. Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a slight upward trend after initial declines, with significant support at 3856 points for the Shanghai Composite Index. Key sectors such as energy metals, automotive, optical electronics, and chemical products performed well, while traditional sectors like traditional Chinese medicine, banking, gaming, and insurance lagged behind [2][3][7]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are currently at 15.91 times and 47.73 times, respectively, which are above the median levels of the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][13]. - The total trading volume on the two exchanges reached 15,979 billion, which is above the median trading volume of the past three years, indicating robust market activity [3][13]. - The market is expected to stabilize around the 4000-point mark for the Shanghai Composite Index, with a continued rebalancing of market styles anticipated, allowing for alternating performances between cyclical and technology sectors. Investors are advised to maintain reasonable positions and avoid impulsive trading [3][13]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On November 28, the A-share market showed a pattern of initial decline followed by recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3888.60 points, up 0.34%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.70% [7][8]. - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets saw gains, particularly in sectors like energy metals, shipbuilding, fertilizers, and cement, while sectors such as traditional Chinese medicine, banking, and gaming faced declines [7][9]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the upcoming important meeting, which will set the economic policy for the next year, could act as a catalyst for a new market rally. Investors are encouraged to focus on sectors such as automotive, energy metals, optical electronics, and power grid equipment for short-term investment opportunities [3][13].

zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -13% -7% -1% 4% 10% 16% 22% 28% 2024.12 2025.04 2025.07 2025.11 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | 指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3,888.60 | 0.34 | 深证成指 | 12,984.08 | 0.85 | | | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | 沪深 | 300 | 4,526.66 | 0.25 | | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | 中证 | 100 | 4,397.36 | 0.25 | | 中证 | 500 | 7,031.55 | 1.15 | ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant adjustment in November 2025, with high valuation growth stocks undergoing notable corrections while value and dividend stocks showed relative resilience [2][17] - Economic data for November indicated a weak recovery in investment and consumption, with exports declining due to high base effects and holiday impacts. However, CPI growth turned positive, and PPI declines narrowed, suggesting a mild recovery in prices [2][17] - The central bank's report emphasized maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions to support "steady growth," alongside various policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand and private investment [2][17] Group 2 - For December 2025, a balanced investment strategy is recommended, focusing on high-dividend defensive assets like banks and power companies due to cautious investor sentiment, while also gradually positioning in high-growth sectors like TMT and industrial machinery as valuations have returned to reasonable levels [3][18] - The recommended stocks for December 2025 include: 002850.SZ Keda Li, 300037.SZ Xinzhou Bang, 601058.SH Sailun Tire, 603755.SH Richen Co., 300442.SZ Runze Technology, 002046.SZ Guoji Precision, 002714.SZ Muyuan Foods, 688041.SH Haiguang Information, 688498.SH Yuanjie Technology, and 688313.SH Shijia Photon [4][22] Group 3 - The monthly gold stock portfolio for November 2025 yielded a return of -2.16%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.21 percentage points and the ChiNext index by 1.82 percentage points [6][9] - The cumulative return of the monthly gold stock portfolio as of November 28, 2025, was 42.86%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 27.73 percentage points, while slightly underperforming the ChiNext index by 0.01 percentage points [13]