Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed performance in the A-share market, with various sectors showing different trends, particularly in technology and consumer sectors [8][9][10] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a recovery phase, with manufacturing PMI indicating expansion in high-tech sectors, suggesting a positive outlook for growth [11][12] - Investment strategies are recommended to focus on balanced allocations, particularly in technology and consumer sectors, while monitoring macroeconomic data and policy changes [8][9][10] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,065.58, down 0.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,906.73, down 0.33% [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 16.75 and 51.98, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [8][9] Industry Analysis - The power and utilities sector showed strong performance, with the China Power and Utilities Index rising 2.76% in January, outperforming the broader market [15] - The electricity supply and demand situation remains robust, with total electricity consumption exceeding 10 trillion kWh in 2025, driven by growth in the service sector [15][16] - The chemical industry saw a price recovery in January, with the basic chemical index rising 10.13%, suggesting potential investment opportunities in sectors benefiting from rising raw material prices [18][20] Technology Sector Insights - The AI and technology sectors are expected to continue their growth trajectory, with significant advancements anticipated in AI models and applications, particularly with the upcoming release of DeepSeek V4 [21][22][23] - The semiconductor market is experiencing growth, with global sales increasing by 29.8% year-on-year, indicating strong demand for technology components [24][25] Renewable Energy Sector - The photovoltaic industry is projected to see significant growth, with over 300 GW of new installations expected in 2025, despite challenges in export demand [27][28] - The cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products is expected to accelerate the exit of high-cost production capacities, impacting market dynamics [27][28] Communication Industry - The communication sector is experiencing strong growth, with the industry index rising 12.82% in December, driven by increased demand for 5G and related technologies [33][34] - Supply chain constraints in key materials for optical components are anticipated to impact market growth until late 2026, highlighting the need for strategic investments in this area [36][37]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Cautious Accumulate" investment rating to the company [11]. Core Insights - China Duty Free Group has evolved from a policy-driven company to a global retail giant, capitalizing on domestic market opportunities and reshaping the global duty-free landscape [11][36]. - The company ranks second globally in duty-free sales, benefiting from high profit margins due to its unique licensing and channel resources [11][26]. - The report highlights significant business volatility influenced by reliance on specific regions and consumer segments, currency fluctuations, and the rise of cross-border e-commerce [11][53][58]. Summary by Sections Market Data - As of February 5, 2026, the closing price is 92.47 yuan, with a market capitalization of 191.31 billion yuan and a price-to-book ratio of 3.44 [2]. Financial Performance - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 53.48 billion yuan, 62.52 billion yuan, and 64.58 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.92 billion yuan, 4.96 billion yuan, and 5.54 billion yuan [9]. Business Model - The company's profitability is driven by its monopoly on scarce licenses and channel resources, allowing it to maintain a competitive edge in a market characterized by high operating costs for international peers [26][29]. - The customer base is primarily concentrated among high-end Chinese consumers, enabling precise demand forecasting and strong bargaining power with brands [27]. Competitive Landscape - The report compares China Duty Free Group with international competitors, noting its unique position in the domestic market while still being in the early stages of global expansion [11][17]. - The company faces challenges from increasing competition and the need to adapt to market-driven dynamics as policy advantages diminish [61][66]. Historical Context - The company has undergone significant transformations since its establishment in 1984, evolving from a state-owned entity to a major player in the global duty-free market [30][32]. - The rise of the middle-income group in China has significantly boosted demand for luxury goods, further enhancing the company's market position [37][38]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to transition from a policy-driven model to one focused on market competitiveness and global expansion, necessitating improvements in operational efficiency and customer experience [61][67].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "outperforming the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [15]. Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a slight fluctuation, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 4029 points before rebounding. Key sectors such as batteries, electronic components, consumer electronics, and general equipment showed strong performance, while sectors like liquor, retail, aerospace, and tourism lagged behind [2][3][7]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are currently at 16.75 times and 51.98 times, respectively, which are above the median levels of the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][14]. - The total trading volume on the two exchanges was 21,636 billion, which is above the median trading volume of the past three years, indicating robust market activity [3][14]. - Despite a slight decline in the official manufacturing PMI for January, the PMI for equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing remains in the expansion zone, reflecting ongoing structural optimization in the industry [3][14]. - The report anticipates that the effects of growth-stabilizing policies will gradually manifest in the first quarter, which is typically a period of the year with the most abundant liquidity [3][14]. - Investors are advised to adopt a balanced allocation strategy, focusing on technology growth sectors such as AI and high-end manufacturing while also considering investment opportunities in certain consumer sectors [3][14]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On February 6, the A-share market showed a pattern of initial decline followed by a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4065.58 points, down 0.25%. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,906.73 points, down 0.33% [7][8]. - Over 50% of stocks in the two markets saw gains, particularly in sectors like mining, energy metals, jewelry, batteries, and chemical raw materials, while sectors such as retail, liquor, tourism, aerospace, and media experienced declines [7][9]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the Shanghai Composite Index is likely to maintain a slight upward trend, and investors should closely monitor macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and policy developments [3][14]. - Short-term investment opportunities are highlighted in the battery, electronic components, consumer electronics, and general equipment sectors [3][14].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Cautious Accumulate" investment rating to the company [11]. Core Insights - The company has evolved from a policy-driven entity to a commercial giant leveraging domestic market advantages, becoming the second-largest player in the global duty-free market [11][20]. - The company's profitability is attributed to its unique access to scarce licenses and channel resources, distinguishing it from typical travel retailers [26]. - The report highlights the significant volatility in the company's financial performance, influenced by reliance on specific regions and consumer segments, currency fluctuations, and the rise of cross-border e-commerce [11][53]. Summary by Sections Market Data - As of February 5, 2026, the closing price is 92.47 yuan, with a market capitalization of 191.31 billion yuan and a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.50 [2][9]. Financial Performance - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 53.48 billion, 62.52 billion, and 64.58 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.92 billion, 4.96 billion, and 5.54 billion yuan [9]. - The company’s gross margin stands at 32.54%, with a return on equity of 5.48% and a debt-to-asset ratio of 18.34% [3]. Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned against international giants like Dufry and Lagardère, with a focus on domestic market expansion while beginning to explore international opportunities [11][17]. - In 2023, the company achieved a sales volume of 9.649 billion USD, ranking second globally in the duty-free sector [20]. Strategic Insights - The company is undergoing a transformation from a policy-driven model to one that emphasizes market-driven and global strategies, aiming to enhance its competitive edge [61]. - The report emphasizes the need for the company to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and market dynamics, particularly in the high-end luxury segment [62][63].

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -8% -1% 6% 14% 21% 28% 35% 42% 2025.02 2025.06 2025.10 2026.02 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | 指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4,075.92 | -0.64 | 深证成指 | 13,952.71 | -1.44 | | | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | 沪深 | 300 | 4,670.42 | -0.60 | | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | 中证 | 100 | 4,558.24 | -0.73 | | 中证 | 500 | 8,146.11 | -1. ...

登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 分析师：张刚 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 -8% -1% 6% 14% 21% 28% 35% 42% 2025.02 2025.06 2025.10 2026.02 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 4,102.20 | 0.85 | | 深证成指 | | 14,156.27 | 0.21 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,698.68 | 0.83 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,591.65 | 0.86 | | 中证 | 500 | 8,299.06 | 0.15 | | 中证 | 1000 | 6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Market Perform" for the basic chemical industry [3][4]. Core Insights - In January 2026, the CITIC Basic Chemical Industry Index rose by 10.13%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.37 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 8.48 percentage points, ranking 6th among 30 CITIC first-level industries [3][7]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in chemical product prices, with notable increases in liquid chlorine, lithium hydroxide, acetonitrile, lithium carbonate, and butadiene [3][8]. - The investment strategy for February 2026 suggests focusing on industries benefiting from anti-involution policies, such as chlor-alkali, pesticides, and polyester filament, as well as coal chemical sectors benefiting from rising oil prices [3][8]. Market Review - The basic chemical sector saw 30 out of 33 sub-industries increase in January 2026, with the dye chemicals, chlor-alkali, and spandex industries leading with increases of 30.94%, 26.69%, and 20.16% respectively [3][8]. - Among 529 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 424 stocks rose while 104 fell, with the top gainers including SDIC, Hongbaoli, and Runtu, which saw increases of 90.53%, 68.92%, and 68.54% respectively [3][8]. Product Price Tracking - In January 2026, international oil prices surged, with WTI crude oil increasing by 13.57% to $65.21 per barrel and Brent crude oil rising by 16.17% to $70.69 per barrel [3][8]. - Of the 319 products tracked, 207 saw price increases, with the largest gains in liquid chlorine (71.43%), lithium hydroxide (44.10%), acetonitrile (32.86%), lithium carbonate (25.58%), and butadiene (25.31%) [3][8]. Industry and Company News - In 2025, the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing industry achieved a total profit of 376.62 billion yuan, although this represented a 7.3% decline from the previous year [15][17]. - The report notes that the chemical industry is expected to benefit from ongoing anti-involution policies, which may strengthen supply-side constraints and favor certain sub-industries [3][8].

电力及公用事业 分析师：陈拓 登记编码：S0730522100003 chentuo@ccnew.com 英国章鱼能源进军我国电力市场，建议以 哑铃策略配置电力资产 ——电力及公用事业行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 发布日期：2026 年 02 月 04 日 投资要点： -5% -1% 4% 8% 13% 17% 22% 26% 2025.02 2025.06 2025.10 2026.02 电力及公用事业 沪深300 资料来源：中原证券，聚源 相关报告 《电力及公用事业行业月报：全球市值最大的 电力上市公司与谷歌开展 AI 合作》 2025-12-29 《电力及公用事业行业月报：充换电服务业以 及信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业用电量增 长较快》 2025-12-03 《电力及公用事业行业年度策略：关注稳定性 和股东回报》 2025-11-28 联系人：李智 ⚫ 行情回顾：1 月电力及公用事业指数表现强于市场。截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日，中信电力及公用事业指数 1 月上涨 2.76%，跑赢沪深 300 （1.65%）1.11 百分点。子行业方面，截至 2026 年 1 月 30 ...

云服务 分析师：唐月 登记编码：S0730512030001 tangyue@ccnew.com 021-50586737 2025 年业绩总体符合预期，2026 收入增 速有望加快 ——润泽科技(300442)点评报告 证券研究报告-点评报告 买入(维持) 市场数据(2026-02-04) | 收盘价(元) | 82.18 | | --- | --- | | 一年内最高/最低(元) | 93.13/42.06 | | 沪深 300 指数 | 4,698.68 | | 市净率(倍) | 9.92 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,338 | 基础数据(2025-09-30) | 每股净资产(元) | 8.29 | | --- | --- | | 每股经营现金流(元) | 1.69 | | 毛利率(%) | 48.11 | | 净资产收益率_摊薄(%) | 34.73 | | 资产负债率(%) | 62.53 | | 总股本/流通股(万股) | 163,434.36/162,837.40 | | B 股/H 股(万股) | 0.00/0.00 | 个股相对沪深 300 指数表现 -32% -20% -9% 2% ...

分析师：徐至 登记编码：S0730525040001 xuzhi@ccnew.com 相关报告 《月度策略：继续关注科技成长及高股息"哑 铃"策略——月度策略》 2026-01-07 《月度策略：平稳收官, 高股息防御与科技成 长布局——月度策略》 2025-12-03 《月度策略：增配价值资产，等待成长资产性 价比回归——月度策略》 2025-11-05 联系人：李智 温和修复中的震荡蓄势 ——月度策略 证券研究报告-月度策略 发布日期：2026 年 02 月 04 日 投资要点： 风险提示：政策及经济数据不及预期，风险事件冲击市场流动性。报 告样本数据有限，历史过往数据不代表未来表现。 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第 1页 / 共 14页 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道1788号T1座22楼 股市回顾。1 月 A 股市场整体表现强劲，主要指数普遍上涨，上证 指数、深证成指和创业板指分别录得 3.76%、5.03%和 4.47%的月 度涨幅，北证 50 和科创 50 更是 ...