◆ 300 30% ◆ 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% ◆ -30% -40% 23-06 23-08 23-10 24-01 24-03 24-05 ◆ ◆ ◆ ...

1      / 2023 12 31 资料来源：航天科技一院官网、航天科技八院官网、航天三江集团官网、星河动力公司官网、蓝箭航天公司官网，中航证券研 究所整理 ₂ ₄ 资料来源：环球网、新京报、中国青年网、星河动力微信公众号，中航证券研究所 “ ”    / UCS 2022 12 31 ① 30% Wind iFinD ④ ...

投资评级 增持 2024年06月02日 证券研究报告|行业研究|军工行业点评 国防军工 军工行业周报:商业航天产业化进程加快 报告摘要 核心观点 5 月国防军工(申万)指数(+1.83%),行业(申万)排名(7/31),板 块内部权重股、低空经济、商业航天等轮动加快。本周国防军工(申万)指 数(+2.43%),行业(申万)排名(2/31),商业航天板块相对活跃,相关 概念股涨幅较大。 近期行情主要受如下几个方面因素的影响： 1、商业航天产业化进程加快,再次引发市场关注 根据企查查 5 月 30 日发布消息,中国时空信息集团有限公司近期 于雄安新区注册成立,注册资本 40亿元,企业股东包括中国星网集团、 兵器工业集团、中国移动三大央企。新成立企业业务范围主要包括卫星 导航服务、卫星通信服务及地理遥感信息服务等,主要结合各股东优势, 专注行业应用。 5 月 29 日, 民营商业航天企业星河动力在山东附近海域实施谷神 星一号海射型(遥二)运载火箭海上发射任务,一箭四星;仅隔一天、 5 月 31 日,星河动力在酒泉卫星发射中心成功发射谷神星一号(遥十 二)，一箭五星。 商业航天的发展不仅为国家战略服务、抢占太空稀缺资 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," with an expected return exceeding 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company is a leading domestic automotive parts supplier, with its main business segments including chassis components, aluminum lightweighting, and air conditioning compressors. The chassis components account for approximately 68% of the company's revenue in 2023 [7][19]. - The company is entering the humanoid robot industry, with the establishment of a subsidiary, Beite Robotics, on April 15, 2024. This move is expected to open a new growth curve for the company [7][19]. - The company has a strong market position in the automotive chassis sector, with over 50% market share in steering racks and shock absorber piston rods as of the first half of 2023 [8][19]. Financial Data and Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 2.18 billion, CNY 2.56 billion, and CNY 3.03 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The corresponding net profits are expected to be CNY 0.75 billion, CNY 1.10 billion, and CNY 1.59 billion [23][24]. - The revenue growth rates are forecasted at 15.8%, 17.4%, and 18.6% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [24][29]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 17.42% in 2023 to 19.57% by 2026 [24][29]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established strong relationships with well-known automotive clients, including Bosch, Huayu, ZF, BYD, and Changan Automobile, which enhances its competitive position in the market [7][19]. - The humanoid robot components, particularly the screw products, are anticipated to benefit significantly from the growing trend in humanoid robot development [19].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the equity market experienced a broad decline, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index dropping by 2.07% and 2.93% respectively [2][5][76] - The real estate sector showed signs of volatility and correction, with the report suggesting that the recent shift towards a more accommodative real estate policy could lead to investment opportunities in the real estate chain, particularly in the post-cycle segments and the liquor industry [5][94] - The report highlights that the market sentiment improved with an increase in average daily trading volume to 8,517.30 billion, reflecting a rise of 27.73 billion compared to the previous week [76] Group 2 - The report discusses the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance as indicated in the May FOMC meeting minutes, which led to an increase in the US dollar index, reported at 104.7421, up by 0.2489 from the previous week [6][80] - It notes that the Fed's decision to maintain high interest rates for an extended period could delay any potential rate cuts, impacting market expectations [6][96] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the real estate policies and government bond issuance speed, as these factors are expected to influence market dynamics in the near term [62][94]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [47]. Core Insights - The securities sector experienced a decline of 3.57%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.49 percentage points. The current PB valuation for the brokerage sector stands at 1.05 times, which is at a historical low [6]. - Recent regulatory changes, including the new rules on shareholder share reductions, aim to enhance market transparency and protect investor rights, which is expected to stabilize market expectations and boost investor confidence [6]. - The insurance sector has shown resilience, with an 18.35% increase in the insurance index since April 15, driven by favorable asset conditions and supportive real estate policies [9]. Summary by Sections Securities - Weekly data shows that the average daily trading volume for A-shares was 851.7 billion yuan, with a slight decrease of 0.30% week-on-week. The daily turnover rate increased by 0.13 percentage points to 2.94% [15]. - The net inflow of northbound funds was 0.8 billion yuan, a recovery from the previous week's outflow of 1.6 billion yuan [16]. - The total scale of equity financing reached 146.7 billion yuan, with IPOs accounting for 27.1 billion yuan and additional issuances totaling 87.5 billion yuan [19][20]. Insurance - As of March 2024, the total assets of insurance companies reached 32.86 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.84% [32]. - The original insurance premium income for March 2024 was 215.44 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 10.73% [34]. - The insurance sector's asset allocation includes 2.72 trillion yuan in bank deposits and 12.57 trillion yuan in bonds, indicating a diversified investment strategy [34]. Industry Dynamics - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has implemented new regulations to manage shareholder share reductions, which are designed to address market concerns and enhance regulatory oversight [39]. - The CSRC also released guidelines for investment research reports, aiming to improve the quality and independence of these reports, thereby fostering a more stable capital market [41].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an expectation of returns exceeding 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [2][23]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant recovery in downstream market demand and an optimization of product structure, leading to a substantial improvement in profitability for Q1 2024 [4]. - The company achieved a revenue of 247 million yuan in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 72.49% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.52% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2024 was 51 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 138.05% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 184.76% [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 703.48 million yuan, a decrease of 28.25% year-on-year, and a net profit of 100.36 million yuan, down 71.63% year-on-year [2][9]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 46.59%, a decline of 20.44 percentage points compared to the previous year [2]. - The company expects revenues of 1.045 billion yuan, 1.379 billion yuan, and 1.695 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 339.75 million yuan, 479.13 million yuan, and 627.20 million yuan [5][9]. Product Line Performance - The SPD product line saw a significant recovery in sales due to improved inventory levels among downstream memory module manufacturers and increased penetration of DDR5 memory modules [4]. - The industrial-grade EEPROM and voice coil motor driver chip products benefited from successful product iterations, leading to rapid growth in shipment volumes [4]. - The automotive-grade EEPROM products experienced high-speed growth in shipments, particularly in key overseas markets such as Europe, Korea, and Japan [4]. Future Projections - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 48.56% in 2024, followed by 32.00% in 2025 and 22.89% in 2026 [9]. - The projected gross margin is expected to improve to 58.42% in 2024, 60.11% in 2025, and 61.62% in 2026 [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The mechanical equipment industry showed a total revenue of 1.69 trillion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 5.69%, with a net profit of 114.1 billion yuan, up 7.83% year-on-year, indicating significant improvement in profitability due to enhanced manufacturing demand [2][4] - In Q1 2024, the mechanical equipment industry generated a total revenue of 363.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.95%, with a net profit of 25.2 billion yuan, up 3.84% year-on-year, reflecting a continued positive operational trend [5][4] - The report highlights the recovery of general equipment manufacturing driven by improved downstream demand, particularly in sectors like machine tools, robots, and forklifts, as well as the ongoing growth in photovoltaic equipment [2][58] Summary by Sections Mechanical Equipment Industry Performance - The mechanical equipment industry experienced a revenue increase in 2023, with total revenue reaching 1.69 trillion yuan and net profit at 114.1 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.69% and 7.83% respectively [2][4] - In Q1 2024, the industry maintained a positive trajectory with revenue of 363.7 billion yuan and net profit of 25.2 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 4.95% and 3.84% [5][4] Key Industry Segments - General equipment, including machine tools and robots, is expected to benefit from improved demand, with specific companies like Huazhong CNC and Guomao Co. being highlighted for potential investment opportunities [2][58] - The photovoltaic equipment sector continues to show strong growth, with revenue from photovoltaic processing equipment increasing by 63% year-on-year in 2023 [7] Focused Investment Recommendations - Key recommended stocks include Beite Technology, Best, Micro Light, Mingzhi Electric, and others, indicating a diversified approach to investment in the advanced manufacturing sector [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring sectors such as photovoltaic equipment, energy storage, and automation for potential growth opportunities [3][61] Market Trends and Projections - The report anticipates a recovery in manufacturing driven by equipment upgrades and improved export dynamics, with a notable increase in industrial robot production and metal cutting machine output in April 2024 [58] - The overall manufacturing sector's contribution to global value added remains significant, with China's manufacturing value added accounting for approximately 30% of the global total [58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronics industry [1] Core Insights - Nvidia's performance exceeded expectations, leading to a surge in US tech stocks, with FY25Q1 revenue reaching $26.04 billion, a year-over-year increase of 262% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 18% [9][10] - The AI market is anticipated to experience a "second startup" phase in China, driven by the recent performance of major players like Nvidia and the release of new AI models [5][16] - The report highlights a significant price drop in AI models in China, indicating a competitive landscape that may accelerate industry consolidation [15] Market Review - The electronics sector index saw a weekly decline of 3.5%, ranking 17th among the Shenwan first-level industries [17] - Notable stock performances included Yingli Co., which rose by 80.20%, and ST Chao Hua, which fell by 22.60% [20] Industry Data Tracking - The DRAM price index decreased by 1.49% to 626.46, while the NAND price index fell by 1.34% to 806.89, reflecting ongoing weak demand in the consumer storage market [26] - In April 2024, China's integrated circuit imports totaled $31.3 billion, a year-over-year increase of 16%, while exports reached $13 billion, up 18% [35] Overseas Industry News - ASML is considering launching a universal EUV lithography platform to simplify advanced process production and reduce costs [42] - Nvidia plans to expedite the introduction of its GB200 chip with panel-level fan-out packaging to address supply constraints [43] - Intel is set to launch its Lunar Lake AI processors in Q3 2024, with expected shipments exceeding 40 million units [45] Domestic Industry News - TSMC confirmed that its Nanjing plant received indefinite exemption from US export controls, allowing continued operations without individual licenses [46] - Xiaomi reported a 100.8% year-over-year increase in adjusted net profit for Q1 2024, driven by strong performance in its smartphone and IoT segments [49]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The mechanical equipment industry achieved a total revenue of 1.69 trillion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 5.69%, with a net profit of 114.1 billion yuan, up 7.83% year-on-year, indicating significant improvement in profitability due to enhanced manufacturing demand [2][4] - In Q1 2024, the mechanical equipment industry reported total revenue of 363.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.95%, and a net profit of 25.2 billion yuan, up 3.84% year-on-year, showing a continued positive operational trend [5][4] - The report highlights the recovery of general equipment manufacturing driven by improved downstream demand and equipment upgrades, suggesting potential investment opportunities in this sector [2][52] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The mechanical equipment industry showed a steady operational improvement in Q1 2024, with revenue and net profit growth indicating a positive trend [4][5] - The general equipment sector is expected to benefit from demand recovery and equipment updates, with specific recommendations for companies like Huazhong CNC and Guomao Co [2][52] Key Industry Segments - Photovoltaic equipment is experiencing growth due to technological advancements and cost reductions in raw materials, with a focus on leading companies in battery and component manufacturing [3][56] - The battery storage sector is gaining momentum with favorable policies, enhancing the industry's overall growth prospects [3][56] - The semiconductor equipment market is projected to reach $140 billion by 2030, with increasing domestic demand and a focus on local alternatives [3][57] Investment Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include Beite Technology, Best, Weiguang Co., Mingzhi Electric, and others, reflecting a diversified portfolio across various segments of the advanced manufacturing industry [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery in general equipment manufacturing and the potential for significant returns as the industry continues to improve [2][52]