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莫畏浮云遮望眼,风物长宜放眼量
AVIC Securities· 2024-03-16 16:00
Core Insights - February financial data fell short of expectations, while regulators introduced four policy documents aimed at tightening IPO access, standardizing share reduction behaviors, and promoting dividends among listed companies. These measures are intended to address market concerns and enhance the quality and investment value of A-share listed companies, thereby boosting overall market confidence in the medium to long term [1][43][56] - Foreign capital flows have shifted positively towards A-shares, with a cumulative net purchase of 70.618 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, showing an accelerating trend. The movement of northbound funds is noteworthy, as they have transitioned from a barbell strategy to a growth-oriented approach [1][10][43] Financial Data and Market Trends - The opening and resumption rates of construction sites have shown a decline, with a national average of 75.4% as of March 12, 2024, down 10.7 percentage points year-on-year. However, the decline has narrowed, indicating some stabilization in the market [21][44] - The market sentiment has improved, with the average daily trading volume increasing to 10,380.82 billion yuan, up by 468.07 billion yuan from the previous week. The overall A-share price-to-earnings ratio rose to 16.96 times, reflecting a 0.95 increase from the previous week [20][43] Sector Performance and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend state-owned enterprises and sectors less correlated with economic data, particularly in the artificial intelligence field. It emphasizes the potential of technology-related state-owned enterprises [4][56] - Following the confirmation of right-side signals, attention should shift to cyclical sectors. Investors are advised to avoid premature bets on U.S. Federal Reserve liquidity easing but to continue monitoring developments [4][56] Capital Flow and Investment Strategy - Northbound capital has shown a significant shift, with major inflows into the banking sector (high dividends), food and beverage (core assets), and the electronics industry (AI). The net purchases for these sectors were 20.007 billion yuan, 15.325 billion yuan, and 11.926 billion yuan, respectively [10][24] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring policy implementation and execution rhythms following the Two Sessions, as these will significantly influence market dynamics [29][43]
证券行业年2024度策略:政策与改革双轮驱动,券商转型提速加力
AVIC Securities· 2024-03-14 16:00
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The securities industry in 2023 faced dual pressures from domestic and international factors, leading to an overall downward trend in the A-share market. By Q3 2023, 44 listed securities firms achieved total operating income of CNY 384 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.94%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 110.3 billion, up 6.59% year-on-year. However, brokerage, asset management, investment banking, and credit businesses faced significant pressure, with revenues declining by 12.45%, 8.44%, 18.34%, and 22.22% respectively [3][14][16] - The self-operated business has become a key driver for performance improvement, with four listed firms achieving self-operated income of CNY 104 billion, a year-on-year increase of 70.20% [3][14][16] - The report emphasizes the need for securities firms to accelerate their transformation towards higher value-added wealth management models due to the high homogeneity and volatility of traditional channel businesses [3][14] - The investment strategy suggests focusing on state-owned enterprises and merger and acquisition themes, as well as large securities firms with strong comprehensive capabilities and those with significant self-operated growth potential [3][20] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The securities sector experienced wide fluctuations in 2023, with the broker index increasing by 3.06% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 14.81 percentage points [5][11] - The market was driven by factors such as economic recovery expectations and policy support, but faced challenges as the market digested these benefits [6][8] Business Performance - The light asset business faced significant pressure, with revenues from brokerage, investment banking, and asset management declining due to reduced market activity and financing slowdowns. The self-operated business, however, showed strong growth [14][16][18] - The report highlights that the self-operated business's contribution to overall performance is increasing, with firms showing a strong willingness to expand their balance sheets and leverage [3][14][16] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on state-owned enterprises and firms involved in mergers and acquisitions, as well as large firms with strong performance and growth potential in self-operated businesses [3][20][49] - The anticipated performance of securities firms in 2023 is expected to be a catalyst for market movements, with several firms projected to exceed profit expectations [3][54]
金融市场分析周报
AVIC Securities· 2024-03-14 16:00
风险提示:货币政策超预期收紧 经济超预期复苏导致债券收益率大幅反弹 地方财政状况恶化导致城投债信用风险集中显现 美国经济及通胀数据超 预期下美联储紧缩周期延长 行 r 5 周一,央行人民银行下调金融机构存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点,释放长期资金约1万亿元,同时以利率招标 方式开展了 1000 亿元 14 天期逆回购操作,中标利率为 1.95%。Wind 数据显示,当日 5000 亿元逆回购到期, 因此单日净回笼 4000 亿元。今日现券震荡,下行上行后再小幅下行,日终长端下行 0.6bp。 资料来源:Wind、中航证券研究所,中航证券资管业务部 中航证券研究所发布 评级利差方面,本周 AA+与 AAA 之间利差为 12bp,较上周持平,AA 与 AA+之间的利差为 15bp,较上周 扩大 1bp。 中航证券研究所发布 正文目录 证券研究报告 2.1 资金面分析:跨春节来临,资金面持续平衡宽松;税期将至叠加 MLF 到期,关注央行公开 市场操作情况 中航证券研究所发布 [证券研究报告] 整体看, CPI 受春节错位影响同比下降环比好转, PPI 环比同样下降,金融数据受到春节/开门红影响, 略超 预期,但持续 ...
创新疫苗系列深度报告(一):RSV疫苗——快速成长的新蓝海
AVIC Securities· 2024-03-12 16:00
创新疫苗系列深度报告(一) 2024年3月9日 RSV疫苗——快速成长的新蓝海 行业评级:增持 分析师:李蔚 证券执业证书号:S0640523060001 中航证券研究所发布 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文后的免责条款部分 核心观点:RSV疫苗——快速成长的新蓝海 Ø 核心观点: Ø 呼吸道合胞病毒(Respiratory syncytial virus,RSV)属于肺炎病毒科正肺病毒属,是一种包膜单股负链RNA病毒。RSV是一种较为广泛存在的呼吸道致病病毒。 2009-2019年间,在中国大陆地区严重的呼吸道感染患者中,RSV感染率达到了16.8%,仅次于流感病毒(IFV)的28.5%,排名第二位;RSV在肺炎患者的感染率为 22.1%,成为导致肺炎最普遍一种的病毒类型。 Ø 与流感类似,RSV感染具有明显的季节性流行特征。在中国北方地区,冬季为流行的高峰期,春季次之,夏季的感染率为全年最低;中国南方地区也呈现出类似的季节性 流行特征,或受气候潮湿的影响,与中国北方相比,中国南方地区年各个季节均呈现出更高的感染率。RSV病毒的两种亚型——RSV-A和RSV-B呈现交替流行的趋势。 根据2009-2019年中国 ...
先进制造行业周报:以旧换新政策提振需求,汽车央企加速新能源布局
AVIC Securities· 2024-03-11 16:00
行业报告:先进制造行业周报 2024年3月12日 以旧换新政策提振需求,汽车央企加速新能源布局 行业评级:增持 分析师:邹润芳 证券执业证书号:S0640521040001 ...
行业监管趋严,关注科技金融、养老金融
AVIC Securities· 2024-03-11 16:00
300 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 23-03 23-05 23-08 23-10 23-12 24-03 ...
电子行业周报:华为展示磁电存储技术,颠覆性降低功耗与成本
AVIC Securities· 2024-03-11 16:00
2024年03月09 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 电子 投资评级 增持 电子行业周报:华为展示磁电存储技术,颠覆性降低 维持评级 功耗与成本 报告摘要 ◆ 行情回顾: 本周电子(申万)板块指数周涨跌幅为+0.55%,在申万一级行业涨跌幅中 排名第11。电子行业(申万一级)涨幅靠前,跑输上证指数 0.07pct,跑赢 沪深 300 指数 0.35pct。电子行业 PE 处于近五年 53.8%的分位点, 电子行 业指数处于近五年 33.3%的分位点。行业每周日平均换手率为 2.54%。 ◆ 华为展示新一代磁电存储,有效使TCO 降低 20%,功耗降低 90%。 近日,在巴塞罗那举行的2024年世界移动通信大会上,华为数据存储产品 线总裁周跃峰博士介绍了华为即将推出的一款适合温冷数据的 OceanStor Arctic 磁电存储, 相比传统机械硬盘、磁带存储该款产品可大大降低成本 和功耗。根据华为, MED(Magneto-electric disk)主要定位于档案存储, 作为大容量磁盘,第一代磁电硬盘可以在单个机架内实现10PB 的容量,而 功耗不到2000W,相比机械硬盘功耗降低90%,而相比磁带存储可以 ...
农业周观点:两会重视粮食增产,关注种植资源与技术
AVIC Securities· 2024-03-09 16:00
◆ *ST天山 绿康生化 天马科技 海大集团 *ST正邦 涨幅前五 11.8% 7.4% 4.8% 4.2% 4.0% 永顺生物 华资实业 秋乐种业 鹏都农牧 中基健康 跌幅前五 -11.1% -10.0% -9.9% -8.8% -7.7% ◆ ◆ ...