证券研究报告 食品饮料 报告日期：2024年04月 22日 一季度社零同比增长 ，关注板块结构性机会 4.7% ——食品饮料行业周报 华龙证券研究所 摘要： 消费行业逐渐复苏。4 月 16 日，国家统计局发布一季度国民经济数 投资评级：推荐（首次覆盖） 据，2024年一季度社会消费品零售总额120,327亿元，同比增长4.7%。 最近一年走势 按消费类型分，商品零售106,882亿元，增长4.0%；餐饮收入13,445 亿元，增长10.8%。基本生活类商品销售良好，限额以上单位粮油食 品类、饮料类商品零售额分别增长9.6%、6.5%。3月份，社会消费品 零售总额同比增长3.1%，环比增长0.26%。 白酒：上周（04 月 15 日-04 月 19 日）天佑德酒发布 2023 年报，公 司实现营业收入 12.10 亿元，同比增长 23.50%；归母净利润 0.90 亿 元，同比增长18.36%；扣非后归母净利润0.85亿元，同比增长33.50%。 金徽酒发布2024年一季报，公司实现营业收入10.76亿元，同比增长 20.41%；归母净利润为2.21亿元，同比增长21.58%；扣非净利润为 分析师：王芳 2.2 ...

证券研究报告 通信 报告日期：2024年04月 28日 快速发展，助力低空经济腾飞 5G-A ——通信行业周报 华龙证券研究所 摘要：  周要闻： 投资评级：推荐（维持） （1）4 月 25 日，北京量子信息科学研究院联合中国科学院物理 最近一年走势 研究所、清华大学在2024中关村论坛年会开幕式上发布其最新成 果“大规模量子云算力集群”。 （2）近日，浙江移动联合中兴通讯在杭州建德的航空小镇完成了 5G-A 通感一体基站建设，并完成国内外首个机场直升机试飞感 知验证。 （3）近日，中国电信研究院、江苏电信联合中兴通讯在南京滨江 经济开发区完成5G-A 业界最大规模低空通感一体化组网验证。  周观点： 分析师：彭棋 国内 5G-A 持续加速发展，相关基础设施建设持续跟进，各大运 执业证书编号：S0230523080002 营商也在持续推进 5G-A 商用步伐，有望带动产业链相关公司业 邮箱：pengq@hlzqgs.com 绩提升。同时，随着低空经济的不断发展，5G也成为助力其加速 腾飞的技术之一，各大运营商也在加大 5G 在积极推动低空经济 方面的应用，建议关注以下板块： ...

证券研究报告 y 传媒 报告日期：2024年04月 23日 京东数字人直播首秀，影视产业景气度复苏 ——传媒行业周报 华龙证券研究所 摘要： 投资评级：推荐（维持）  截止 4 月 18 日，五一档已定档 11 部电影，2024 年开年以来， 元旦档、春节档两个主要档期票房均达到历史新高；4月刚结束 最近一年走势 的清明档亦创纪录，成为历年最强清明档。预计五一档电影市场 将有望延续此前元旦档和春节档的强劲表现，再创票房佳绩，推 动影视产业全线复苏。近日，京东集团创始人刘强东以AI数字 人在京东直播间进行了首次直播，随着监管的强化和技术水平的 提升，数字人虚拟主播将以其低投入、高产出、持久续航的内容 生产方式，引领相关行业向规范化、精细化、智能化的方向迈进。 维持传媒行业“推荐”评级。  《维和防暴队》、《没有一顿火锅解决不了的事》等11 部影片 定档五一档。截止4月18日，五一档已定档11部电影，其中2 分析师：孙伯文 部引进影片，9部国产影片。首部海外维和题材大片《维和防暴 队》、光线传媒中国神话宇宙系列动画《小倩》等位列其中。截 执业证书编号：S0230523080004 至4月19日早间，新片预售票 ...

证券研究报告 化工 报告日期：2024年04月 22日 细分板块关注度提升，产品价格延续涨势 ——化工行业周报 华龙证券研究所 摘要： 投资评级：推荐（维持）  原油：截至2024年4月19日，WTI原油期货价格为83.14美元/ 桶，周环比-2.21%；布伦特原油期货价格为87.29美元/桶，周环 最近一年走势 比-2.73%。2024 年 4 月 15 日至 18 日,市场对伊以冲突扩大化的 担忧逐渐降温，但19日发生新的冲突时，市场立即反映明显，盘 中油价拉涨，说明市场对以色列及中东局势不稳定性的担忧并未 消除；EIA 最新一期数据显示，原油库存近三周连续小幅增长， 需求端短线承压，但地缘局势的不稳定性还在延续，国际油价维 持高位区间运行概率较大。  聚氨酯：截至2024年4月19日，纯苯市场价格震荡上涨，主要 系下游装置检修完成，备货需求提升导致。苯胺市场高位回落， 尽管由于装置检修，供应相对减少，但是苯胺涨至高价后，市场 分析师：孙伯文 提货预期一般。2024年4月15日至19日期间，国内聚合MDI市 执业证书编号：S0230523080004 场价格走高，主要系国内及出口新订单增加，现货供应有 ...

证券研究报告 汽车 报告日期：2024年04月 28日 汽车以旧换新补贴细则发布，乘用车市场迎来强心剂 ——汽车行业周报 华龙证券研究所 摘要：  本周观点：汽车以旧换新补贴细则发布，乘用车市场迎来强心剂。 投资评级：推荐（维持） 4月26日，商务部等7部门发布《汽车以旧换新补贴实施细则》， 最近一年走势 明确符合条件的报废并新购置新能源车/燃油车分别补贴 10000/7000 元。此轮政策有两个显著特点：一是换购需求广阔， 符合报废条件的乘用车保有量近1700万辆，且对应燃油车车龄在 13年及以上，新能源车电池、智能化配置等明显落后；二是补贴 力度较大，其中燃油车补贴高于过往汽车购置税优惠额度。补贴 落地实施后，预计新增 100-200 万辆购车需求，综合近期 50%的 新能源渗透率和高于燃油车43%的新能源车补贴力度，预计带来 60-120 万辆新能源乘用车销量增量。考虑报废主力车型车龄较长 且因补贴换购的消费者价格敏感性较高，我们预计新购车需求或 集中在15万元及以下，在此价格区间供给丰富且产品力较强的自 主车企有望充分受益。 分析师：杨阳 执业证书编号：S0230523110001  重点行业动态 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Buy" for the company, marking the first coverage [1][3]. Core Views - The waterproofing industry faced pressure in 2023, but the company's retail business saw rapid revenue growth, achieving 9.287 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.11%, which accounted for 28.29% of total revenue [1][3]. - The company has expanded its retail business significantly, with a dealer network of nearly 5,000 and over 220,000 distribution points by the end of 2023 [1]. - The company's cash flow improved significantly, with net cash flow from operating activities reaching 2.103 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 221.58% [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved total operating revenue of 32.823 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 5.15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.273 billion yuan, up 7.16% [1][4]. - The company forecasts operating revenues of 36.262 billion yuan, 39.643 billion yuan, and 43.672 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.908 billion yuan, 3.267 billion yuan, and 3.605 billion yuan [4][6]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 11.6, 10.3, and 9.3, respectively [3][4]. Business Segment Insights - The retail business's gross margin in 2023 was 39.42%, an increase of 4.63 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company's mortar powder business generated 4.196 billion yuan in revenue in 2023, showing significant growth [1][3]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, establishing offices in multiple countries, including Vietnam, Malaysia, and the United States [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huaneng International (600011.SH) is "Buy" [3][4]. Core Views - The performance of thermal power has significantly improved, benefiting from cost reductions and increased electricity generation. The company reported a total profit of 28.25 billion yuan from coal-fired power, marking a year-on-year increase of 4151.44% [3][4]. - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a total electricity generation of 1130.36 billion kWh, a year-on-year growth of 5.63%, with wind and solar power generation increasing by 24.08% and 73.73%, respectively [2][3]. - The company’s investment income rose to 381 million yuan in Q1 2024, up 64.22% from 232 million yuan in the same period of 2023 [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, Huaneng International reported operating revenue of 653.67 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.15% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.96 billion yuan, up 104.25% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company’s coal-fired power segment turned profitable, primarily due to a significant decrease in coal prices, with the average price at Qinhuangdao port dropping by 21% year-on-year [3][4]. Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 129.99 billion yuan, 143.90 billion yuan, and 163.24 billion yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 11.4, 10.3, and 9.1 for the years 2024-2026 [2][4]. Capacity Expansion - The company added 1.6 GW of new renewable energy capacity in Q1 2024, contributing to the increase in electricity generation [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage [4][8]. Core Views - The advertising market demand is recovering, leading to stable growth in the company's operating performance. The domestic advertising market saw a year-on-year increase of 6.0% in 2023, with the outdoor advertising market reaching approximately 82.05 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of about 11.01% [4]. - The company has accelerated its overseas expansion, establishing the largest urban lifestyle media network in China, covering over 280 cities with approximately 1.051 million elevator TV media devices and 1.572 million elevator poster media devices as of March 31, 2024 [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 11.904 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 26.3%, with a projected revenue of 12.868 billion RMB for 2024 [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 4.827 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 73.02%, with an expected net profit of 4.873 billion RMB for 2024 [6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 0.33 RMB, with projections of 0.34 RMB for 2024 and 0.36 RMB for 2025 [7]. Market Data - As of May 7, 2024, the current stock price is 6.63 RMB, with a 52-week price range of 5.51-7.83 RMB and a total market capitalization of approximately 95.75 billion RMB [4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 19.6, 18.3, and 16.3 respectively [4][7]. Revenue Sources - The primary revenue source for the company in 2023 was the consumer goods sector, accounting for 56.23% of total revenue, followed by the internet sector at 11.75% [4]. - The company is actively deploying marketing vertical models to leverage opportunities presented by AI technology [4]. Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2023 was 65.48%, with expectations to increase to 66.50% in 2024 [9]. - The return on equity (ROE) for 2023 was 26.60%, projected to be 26.96% in 2024 [6][9]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 12.868 billion RMB, 13.794 billion RMB, and 14.622 billion RMB respectively, with net profits expected to be 4.873 billion RMB, 5.233 billion RMB, and 5.879 billion RMB [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.5x, 15.0x, and 12.5x for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [5] Core Views - The company achieved robust revenue growth of 36.65% YoY in 2023, reaching RMB 7.716 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 54.47% YoY to RMB 564 million [11] - In Q1 2024, the company maintained strong performance with revenue growth of 17.11% YoY to RMB 2.123 billion and net profit growth of 33.78% YoY to RMB 188 million [11] - The company has established a strong market position in vertical sectors such as automotive, FWA, and PC, with IOT wireless communication applications achieving a gross margin of 23.20% in 2023, up 3.12 percentage points YoY [11] - R&D investment accounted for 9.28% of revenue in 2023, supporting the company's technological innovation and product development [11] Financial Projections Income Statement - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 5.646 billion in 2022A to RMB 13.486 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 24.3% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 364 million in 2022A to RMB 1.061 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 30.7% [6] - EPS is forecasted to grow from RMB 0.48 in 2022A to RMB 1.39 in 2026E [6] Balance Sheet - Total assets are projected to increase from RMB 6.399 billion in 2022A to RMB 9.221 billion in 2026E [7] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decline from 62.1% in 2022A to 45.2% in 2026E, indicating improving financial health [20] Cash Flow - Operating cash flow is forecasted to grow significantly from RMB 300 million in 2022A to RMB 1.318 billion in 2026E [20] - Free cash flow is expected to turn positive in 2026E, reaching RMB 645 million [20] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decline from 36.4x in 2022A to 12.5x in 2026E, indicating improving valuation attractiveness [6] - EV/EBITDA is expected to decrease from 28.4x in 2022A to 9.3x in 2026E [20] Profitability and Efficiency - ROE is forecasted to improve from 15.0% in 2022A to 21.7% in 2026E [6] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 23.9% from 2024E to 2026E [20] - Asset turnover ratio is projected to increase from 1.1x in 2022A to 1.5x in 2026E, indicating improving asset utilization efficiency [20]

偶倒 0680 （本刊物为中风险等级产品，敬请投资者参阅正文后的免责声明） 2024 年第 81 期，总第 1640 期（电子版） 2024 年 5 月 8 日 星期三 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|--------------|-----------| | | | | | | 沪深指数 | | | | 收盘(点) | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | 3147.74 | 0.22 | | 深证成指 | 9770.94 | -0.08 | | 中小 100 | 5987.39 | 0.07 | | 创业板指 | 1892.54 | -0.14 | | 沪深 300 | 3659.01 | 0.03 | | | 海外市场指数 | | | | 收盘(点) | 涨跌幅(%) | | 道琼斯 | 38884.26 | 0.08 | | 纳斯达克 | 16332.56 | -0.1 | | 标普 500 | 5187.7 | 0.13 | | 英国富时 100 | 8313.67 | 1.22 | | 日经 225 | 38450.42 | -0.99 | | 恒生指数 ...