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合成生物学周报:工信部启动生物制造中试平台计划,南林大研发非粮生物基隔热材料-20250618
Huaan Securities· 2025-06-18 13:00
D [Table_IndNameRptType] 基础化工 行业周报 合成生物学周报:工信部启动生物制造中试平台计划 ,南林大研发非粮生物基隔热材料 [Table_IndRank] 行业评级:增持 报告日期: 2025-06-18 主要观点: [Table_Summary] 华安证券化工团队发表的《合成生物学周报》是一份面向一级市场、 二级市场,汇总国内外合成生物学相关领域企业信息的行业周报。 目前生命科学基础前沿研究持续活跃,生物技术革命浪潮席卷全球并 加速融入经济社会发展,为人类应对生命健康、气候变化、资源能源 安全、粮食安全等重大挑战提供了崭新的解决方案。国家发改委印发 《"十四五"生物经济发展规划》,生物经济万亿赛道呼之欲出。 合成生物学指数是华安证券研究所根据上市公司公告等汇总整理由 58 家业务涉及合成生物学及其相关技术应用的上市公司构成并以2020年 10 月 6 日为基准 1000 点,指数涵盖化工、医药、工业、食品、生物 医药等多领域公司。本周(2025/06/09-2025/06/13)华安合成生物学 指数上涨 9.36 个百分点至 1704.01。上证综指下降 0.25%,创业板指 上涨 ...
地缘政治风险暴露提振油价,美国生物燃料总产量创新高
Huaan Securities· 2025-06-18 12:10
行业周报 [Table_IndNameRptType] 基础化工 地缘政治风险暴露提振油价,美国生物燃料总产量创新高 [Table_IndRank] 行业评级:增持 执业证书号:S0010522110002 电话:13621792701 邮箱:wangqf@hazq.com 主要观点: ⚫[Table_Summary] 行业周观点 本周(2025/6/9-2025/6/13)化工板块整体涨跌幅表现排名第 14 位,涨跌幅为-0.01% ,走势处于市场整体中游。上证综指涨跌幅为 -0.25%,创业板指涨跌幅为 0.22%,申万化工板块跑赢上证综指 0.24 个百分点,跑输创业板指 0.21 个百分点。 ⚫ 2025 年化工行业景气度将延续分化趋势,推荐关注合成生物学、农 药、层析介质、代糖、维生素、轻烃化工、COC 聚合物、MDI 等行 业: (1)合成生物学奇点时刻到来。能源结构调整大背景下,化石基材料 或在局部面临颠覆性冲击,低耗能的产品或产业有望获得更长成长窗 口。对于传统化工企业而言,未来的竞争在于能耗和碳税的成本,优 秀的传统化工企业会利用绿色能源代替方案、一体化和规模化优势来 降低能耗成本,亦或新增 ...
转债周记(6月第3周):波动率下行趋势下,转债市场如何分化?
Huaan Securities· 2025-06-18 07:41
[T[able Table_IndNameRptType] _IndNameRptType] 2 固定收益 固收周报 [分析师: Table_Author] 胡倩倩 执业证书号:S0010524050004 电话:13391388385 邮箱:huqianqian@hazq.com 主要观点: ⚫[Table_Summary] 近期权益市场波动率呈何种走势? 近期市场波动率有所下降,整体波动率较低。上证 50 与沪深 300 近一个月波 动率均有所下降。A 股整体盘面波动率呈明显周期性特征,不同时间维度的表 现差异显著。市场长期波动率普遍高于短期波动率,近期有小幅度的下降,至 今处于历史低位。 同时小盘、中盘、大盘股的波动率分布类似,但波动率大小呈现显著分化,小 盘股波动率显著高于大盘股。大盘股整体波动率最低,中盘股其次,小盘股整 体波动率最高。此外,不同行业的波动率和行情表现呈现显著分化,高波动率 行业与低波动率行业之间差异显著,以稳健性为代表的银行行业与高风险的 计算机行业波动率差异高达 4.6%。 ⚫ 2023 年至今,可转债市场波动率如何变化? 波动率下行趋势下,转债市场如何分化? [Table_In ...
利率周记(6月第3周):今年个券博弈的五个新规律
Huaan Securities· 2025-06-17 10:50
[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 今年个券博弈的五个新规律 ——利率周记(6 月第 3 周) 报告日期: 2025-06-17 [Table_Author] 首席分析师:颜子琦 执业证书号:S0010522030002 电话:13127532070 邮箱:yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理:洪子彦 执业证书号:S0010123060036 电话:15851599909 邮箱:hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点: 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 证券研究报告 [Table_Report] [Table_CompanyRptType] 固收周报 ⚫[Table_Summary] 债市震荡+重交易,关注个券利差变化的三个新特征 今年以来,债市更加重交易。在十年国债 1.65%的背景下,资本利得占综合收 益比例较往年明显增加,债市交易的重要性提升。 在当前震荡市环境下,寻找个券的利差机会被投资者愈加重视。在以往的趋 势性行情中,同一期限段的活跃券、次活跃券以及次次活跃券收益率走势通常 整体大幅变动,其相对利差的变化影响较小,趋势性行情下博 ...
债市情绪面周报(6月第3周):超半数固收卖方看多债市-20250616
Huaan Securities· 2025-06-16 12:57
[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 超半数固收卖方看多债市 ——债市情绪面周报(6 月第 3 周) 报告日期: 2025-06-16 [Table_Author] 首席分析师:颜子琦 执业证书号:S0010522030002 电话:13127532070 邮箱:yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理:洪子彦 执业证书号:S0010123060036 电话:15851599909 邮箱:hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点: ⚫[Table_Summary] 华安观点:债市顺风,赔率有限,仍重交易 近期市场情绪升温,投资者看多也在做多,市场情绪(买方与卖方) 上升至年初至今最高位,同时投资者选择拉长久期与加杠杆,基本面依然 对债市有利(社融由政府债支撑、物价依然偏弱),大行买短债也成为趋 势,可关注后续宽货币的政策信号,但在债市顺风环境下,利率整体下行 的赔率有限,从曲线形态看长债较历史极值空间约为 3bp,同时跨半年环 境下拉长久期是机会也是风险,历史上 6 月债市整体涨跌参半,仍宜以交 易思维对待。 ⚫ 卖方观点:超半数固收卖方看多债市 ...
SNEC展新品频出,海风项目稳步推进
Huaan Securities· 2025-06-15 07:29
电力设备 行业周报 SNEC 展新品频出,海风项目稳步推进 行业评级:增持 报告日期: 2025-06-15 行业指数与沪深 300 走势比较 分析师:张志邦 执业证书号:S0010523120004 邮箱: zhangzhibang@hazq.com 分析师:刘千琳 执业证书号:S0010524050002 邮箱: liuqianlin@hazq.com 分析师:郑洋 执业证书号:S0010524110003 邮箱: zhengyang@hazq.com 相关报告 1.国内大储招标高增,关注虚拟电厂 环节 2025-06-09 2.绿电直连有望提振需求,海风项目 稳步推进 2025-06-05 3.海风基本面进入右侧,宝马全固态 电池汽车路测 2025-05-26 主要观点: -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 06/13 07/13 08/13 09/13 10/13 11/13 12/13 01/13 02/13 03/13 04/13 05/13 06/13 电网设备 沪深300 近期,国家能源集团 2025 年第 1 批 4354.33MW 风力发电机组集采 公开 ...
债市机构行为周报(6月第3周):债市投资者已从看多转向做多-20250615
Huaan Securities· 2025-06-15 06:40
[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 债市投资者已从看多转向做多 ——债市机构行为周报(6 月第 3 周) 报告日期: 2025-06-15 [Table_Author] 首席分析师:颜子琦 执业证书号:S0010522030002 电话:13127532070 邮箱:yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理:洪子彦 执业证书号:S0010123060036 电话:15851599909 邮箱:hongziyan@hazq.com ⚫[Table_Summary] 三个债市边际变化 也在拉长久期博资本利得。 第三,债市整体杠杆率也在回升,已超去年水平。一季度债市资金面整 体均衡偏紧,DR007 运行在政策利率上方,对应债市杠杆率持续处于低 位,远低于季节性水平。而近期我们看到,在央行提前公布买断式逆回 购+大行买短债的情况下,6 月资金面并不紧,这一现象也催化了机构加 杠杆的诉求。 综合以上三点,叠加近期披露的基本面数据依然对债市有利(社融由政 府债支撑、物价依然偏弱),债市看多+做多的债市行情已经来临。 ⚫ 同时也有三点关注 第一,拉久期+加杠杆环境 ...
汽车零部件财报颗粒度系列:2024A及25Q1资本开支跟踪
Huaan Securities· 2025-06-13 06:10
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the changes in operating income, net profit margin, and capital expenditure for the automotive parts sector in 2024A and Q1 2025, indicating that precision parts, chassis components, and electronic components show relatively good growth and capital expenditure intensity [4][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of capital expenditure for manufacturing enterprises to maintain operational capabilities, suggesting that capital expenditure is a precursor to future output and can help identify investment opportunities in sectors with high growth potential [4][10] Summary by Sections 1. Growth Potential - In 2024A, the operating income growth rates are as follows: electronic components (-), chassis components (+), body components (-), exterior components (-), overall industry (+), precision parts (+), powertrain components (+), interior components (+), and molds (-) [10][13] - The net profit margin for 2024 is 5.2%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous year, while Q1 2025 shows a net profit margin of 5.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points [15][19] - The report categorizes the growth potential into four tiers based on operating income growth and net profit margin changes, with precision parts and chassis components performing well [10][11][15] 2. Capital Expenditure Intensity - The capital expenditure as a percentage of operating income for the automotive parts sector in 2024 is 6.9%, which is an increase compared to the previous year, while Q1 2025 shows a decrease to 6.4% [22] - The report identifies different tiers of capital expenditure intensity across various segments, with electronic components and molds showing high capital expenditure intensity [22] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with high capital expenditure and growth potential, particularly precision parts (gears, bearings), chassis components (steering systems, suspension), electronic components, and thermal management systems [4][10] - Recommended companies include Shuanglin Co., Guansheng Co., Jifeng Co., and Huayang Group, with additional mentions of Zhejiang Shibao, Zhongding Co., Meili Technology, and others [4][10]
“学海拾珠”系列之二百三十八:高维环境下的最优因子择时
Huaan Securities· 2025-06-12 10:40
Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Optimal Factor Timing Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model integrates numerous factors and predictors to construct a timing strategy, leveraging shrinkage techniques to avoid overfitting to historical data and spurious opportunities[2][3][17] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use the Ledoit and Wolf (2003) covariance matrix shrinkage estimator to ensure robustness even with thousands of timing portfolios. The shrinkage intensity is calculated following Schäfer and Strimmer (2005)[3][25] 2. Apply a modified version of Kozak, Nagel, and Santosh (2020) shrinkage method to estimate portfolio weights, introducing skepticism toward unrealistically high Sharpe ratio opportunities. The weight formula is: $$ \hat{W}_{t}=\left(\hat{\Sigma}_{t}+\hat{\overline{t}}_{t}\left[\begin{array}{cc}0&0\\ 0&\hat{D}_{t}\end{array}\right]\right)^{-1}\hat{\mu}_{t} $$ where $\hat{\Sigma}_{t}$ is the covariance matrix, $\hat{\mu}_{t}$ is the mean return vector, and $\lambda$ controls the shrinkage degree[27][28][29] 3. Rescale portfolio weights to ensure the absolute sum of weights equals 1 in each period, focusing on factor rotation while avoiding extreme leverage[3][30] - **Model Evaluation**: The shrinkage techniques effectively mitigate estimation errors and prevent overfitting, ensuring robust out-of-sample performance even in high-dimensional settings[3][30][80] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Optimal Factor Timing Portfolio (Fama-French Factors) - **Mean Return**: 4.71% - **Standard Deviation**: 5.81% - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.81 - **Appraisal Ratio**: 0.79 - **Worst 12-Month Return**: -5.62%[40][41] 2. Optimal Factor Timing Portfolio (Large-Cap Fama-French Factors) - **Mean Return**: 3.65% - **Standard Deviation**: 6.49% - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.56 - **Appraisal Ratio**: 0.54 - **Worst 12-Month Return**: -13.70%[40][41] 3. Optimal Factor Timing Portfolio (Jensen Factors, Small Predictor Set) - **Mean Return**: 2.97% - **Standard Deviation**: 2.01% - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.48 - **Appraisal Ratio**: 1.51 - **Worst 12-Month Return**: -1.79%[40][41] 4. Optimal Factor Timing Portfolio (Jensen Factors, Large Predictor Set) - **Mean Return**: 2.73% - **Standard Deviation**: 1.91% - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.43 - **Appraisal Ratio**: 1.46 - **Worst 12-Month Return**: -3.17%[40][41] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Interaction of Factors and Predictors - **Factor Construction Idea**: Factor timing portfolios are constructed by interacting lagged predictors with factor returns, transforming the time-series prediction problem into a cross-sectional mean-variance optimization problem[17][19][23] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Define factor timing portfolios as: $$ G_{t}=X_{t-1}F_{t} $$ where $X_{t-1}$ are lagged predictors and $F_{t}$ are factor returns[19][20] 2. The expected return of the timing portfolio is: $$ E\left[G_{t}\right]=\mathrm{Cov}\left(X_{t-1},F_{t}\right) $$ indicating that timing returns depend on the predictive power of $X_{t-1}$ for $F_{t}$[21][22] 3. Construct $KJ$ timing portfolios for $K$ factors and $J$ predictors, always including the original factors as a baseline[22][23] - **Factor Evaluation**: The interaction approach effectively captures time-varying factor exposures, enabling robust timing strategies across diverse factor-predictor combinations[23][80] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Fama-French Factors (Standard Version) - **Mean Return**: 4.71% - **Standard Deviation**: 5.81% - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.81 - **Appraisal Ratio**: 0.79 - **Worst 12-Month Return**: -5.62%[40][41] 2. Fama-French Factors (Large-Cap Version) - **Mean Return**: 3.65% - **Standard Deviation**: 6.49% - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.56 - **Appraisal Ratio**: 0.54 - **Worst 12-Month Return**: -13.70%[40][41] 3. Jensen Factors (Small Predictor Set) - **Mean Return**: 2.97% - **Standard Deviation**: 2.01% - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.48 - **Appraisal Ratio**: 1.51 - **Worst 12-Month Return**: -1.79%[40][41] 4. Jensen Factors (Large Predictor Set) - **Mean Return**: 2.73% - **Standard Deviation**: 1.91% - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.43 - **Appraisal Ratio**: 1.46 - **Worst 12-Month Return**: -3.17%[40][41]
影石创新(688775):N影石(688775):影石创新投资探讨
Huaan Securities· 2025-06-11 13:31
证券研究报告•深度/专题 影石创新投资探讨 ——25年前瞻专题之影石创新(688775.SH) 2025. 06. 11 华安证券研究所 分析师:邓 欣 S0010524010001 dengxin@hazq.com 分析师:成浅之 S0010524100003 chengqianzhi@hazq.com 联系人:唐楚彦 S0010124070002 tangchuyan@hazq.com 核心要点 影石创新坐拥三重产品壁垒全景优势+软件突出+迭代领先,以强产品力逐步抢占GoPro全球份额,最新销量已超越手持影 像设备昔日龙一GoPro;我们认为:从投资逻辑看,公司未来在产品外延、海外抢占、成本优化三方面皆有成长空间。 定价探讨:我们看好影石创新未来产品拓展空间与全球份额空间,我们测算25-26年公司收入78/101亿元(同比 +40%/+29%),利润13.4/16.5亿元(同比+35%/+23%),参考科技消费可比标的26年平均估值21X,公司当前价格存成 长性溢价空间(远期更存云增值、第二曲线等额外长期空间),关注公司长期价值。同步建议关注产业链标的:弘景光电、 韦尔股份、虹软科技、迅雷等(详见正文)。 ...