[Table_IndNameRptType] 基础化工 行业周报 乙烷禁运风波趋缓，从"全面停运"到"可运输、暂不卸货" [Table_IndRank] 行业评级：增持 报告日期： 2025-6-30 [Table_Chart] 行业指数与沪深 300 走势比较 -27% -14% 0% 14% 27% 41% 基础化工 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：王强峰 执业证书号：S0010522110002 电话：13621792701 邮箱：wangqf@hazq.com 分析师：潘宁馨 执业证书号：S0010524070002 电话：13816562460 邮箱：pannx@hazq.com [Table_Report] 相关报告 1.壳牌关闭新加坡炼油厂，原油、制冷剂 R22 价格上涨 20250105 山东布局精细化工产业发展，制冷剂 R32、 R125、R134a 价格上涨 20241230 2.2025 年制冷剂配额下发，天然气、顺酐价 格上涨 20241224 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 行业周观点 本周（2025/06/23-2025/06/27）化工板块整体涨跌 ...

| 华安研究 2025年7月金股组合 | 归母净利润 | （百万 | ） | 归母净利润增速 | 营业收入 | （百万） | 营业收入增速 | eps | pe(pb有说明 | ) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业 | 金股代码 | 金股 | 核心推荐逻辑 | 风险提示 | 研究员 | 报告依据 | ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to experience increased volatility in July due to external factors, particularly the US "reciprocal tariff" negotiations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting [2][3][15] - Domestic economic growth is projected to exceed the annual target, with a forecasted growth rate of 5.3% for the first half of the year, driven by improved exports and structural policy support [3][18][21] - The report highlights the potential for a recovery in real estate valuations due to anticipated policy easing, particularly in light of the upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting [9][38][39] Group 2 - The banking and insurance sectors are identified as having high investment value, supported by stable high dividends and the influx of long-term capital [37][40][41] - Key sectors with strong support include rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, engineering machinery, motorcycles, and agricultural chemical products, which are expected to benefit from global economic conditions and geopolitical factors [9][38] - The report emphasizes the risks associated with the growth technology sector, which has seen significant price increases and is now facing potential valuation corrections [10][39]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Overweight [1] Core Views - The report highlights the strong momentum in AI development both domestically and internationally, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the sector [4][43] - OpenAI has opened access to its deep research model API, providing developers with powerful tools for tasks requiring advanced reasoning and real-time information [3][46] - The Hong Kong government has introduced a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which may enhance financing options for companies in China [4] Market Review - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.91%, the ChiNext Index increased by 5.69%, and the CSI 300 Index saw a 1.95% rise. The Hang Seng Tech Index and Nasdaq Index both experienced gains of 4.06% and 4.25%, respectively [2][23] - The AI index increased by 5.24%, while the computer index rose by 7.7%, indicating strong performance in these sectors [23] AI Developments - OpenAI's deep research model API is now available, which includes features like automated web search and data analysis, enhancing the capabilities for developers [3][43] - Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen launched a new multimodal model, Qwen VLo, which is designed for precise control in generating long text passages [4][45] - Tencent's Hunyuan-A13B model has been released, boasting 80 billion parameters with a focus on efficiency and cost-effectiveness [4][44] Semiconductor Sector - Micron reported a revenue of $9.301 billion for Q3 of fiscal year 2025, marking a 15.5% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 36.56% year-over-year increase, with DRAM revenue reaching a historical high [7][48] Automotive Sector - Tesla's Model Y has achieved fully autonomous delivery from factory to customer, marking a significant milestone in self-driving technology [8] E-commerce Developments - Amazon plans to expand its same-day and next-day delivery services to over 4,000 small towns and rural communities in the U.S. by the end of 2025, with an investment of approximately $4 billion [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Xiaomi's recent product launch has attracted market attention, indicating that the next generation of personal terminal innovative products has a long way to go [5] - The report provides a review of the market performance for the week of June 23 to June 27, 2025, noting significant increases in various indices, with the semiconductor packaging and testing sector showing the highest growth at 8.32% [4][37] Summary by Sections 1. Important News in the Electronics Industry - The report mentions that the Chinese PC monitor market saw a 14% year-on-year increase in shipments in Q1 2025, driven by government subsidies [13] - OLED and MiniLED monitors experienced explosive growth, with OLED shipments increasing by 433.7% year-on-year [14] - The global semiconductor foundry market reached $72.29 billion in Q1 2025, a 12.5% increase year-on-year, driven by demand for AI and HPC chips [18] - The global smart camera market grew by 4.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with Xiaomi showing a notable increase of 38.6% in shipments in the Chinese market [21][27] 2. Market Performance Review - The report details the performance of various indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.91%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 3.73% during the week [4][37] - The semiconductor packaging and testing sector led the industry with an 8.32% increase, while the panel sector lagged with a 3.11% increase [4][37] 3. Individual Stock Performance - The report lists the top-performing stocks for the week, including Haoshanghao and Weiteou, while stocks like Lianjian Optoelectronics and Jiemite performed poorly [53] - Year-to-date performance highlights include Shenghong Technology and Nanya New Materials as top performers, while stocks like Shengke Communication-U and Guoxing Optoelectronics lagged [53]

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 博弈央行买债的囚徒困境 ——债市机构行为周报（6 月第 5 周） 报告日期： 2025-06-29 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 分析师：洪子彦 执业证书号： S0010525060002 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 本周综述： ⚫[Table_Summary] 当前机构行为特征以及博弈央行买债的囚徒困境 跨季时点债市震荡，短端表现更优。6 月最后一周，债市整体表现震 荡，短端更优，10 年国债到期收益率维持横盘，1 年、3 年到期收益率 出现 1-2bp 的小幅下行。 债市投资者在当前时点面临囚徒困境。6 月末是一个较为敏感的时间节 点，一方面是跨季，另一方面公募基金有冲排名/规模的诉求，从短期的 可博弈因素来看，仍有央行是否开启买债以及 6 月 PMI 数据仍未公布， 对于投资者而言，实际面临一定的囚徒困境： 从近期的机构行为特征看，大行 ...

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 深度报告 探析信用债 ETF 成份券交易策略 报告日期： 2025-06-27 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 首选做市券，次选做市主体券，提前布局科创债成份券 近期，信用债 ETF 行情较好，流通市值整体大涨，作为以实物交割为主的 交易性开放式指数基金，规模的增长会转化为对信用债的配置需求，进而 推动相关个券流动性的提升与收益率的下行，因此以标的指数成份券为主 要交易对象的策略在当前环境下的性价比凸显。 具体来看，我们以 PCF 清单为依据，近似观测当前沪深做市信用债 ETF 的 主要持仓结构。截至 6 月 25 日，每日被信用债 ETF 持仓的债券余额已超过 7400 亿元，其中 ETF 持仓的金额超过 1100 亿元，被 ETF 持仓的金额占债 券余额的比重来到 15.5%。分评级来看，信用债 ETF 主要持有隐含 AAA 个 券，其次为 AAA- 与 AA+，对应持仓规模分别占到全部做市券余额的 15.2%、8.8%与 9.7%。而在期限方面，信用债 ETF 主要持有 1 至 3 年期与 7 至 10 年期债券，其中后者占比最高， ...

[Table_StockNameRptType] 策略研究 市场点评 [Table_RptDate] 报告日期： 2025-6-26 [Table_Author] 策略分析师：郑小霞 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 策略分析师：刘超 6 月 25 日创业板大涨，从行业上涨结构看，为创业板上涨贡献颇多的主要 是证券行业大涨，其原因在于港股券商强势表现的情绪传导，其背后催化 在于香港证监会批准国泰君安国际升级虚拟资产交易牌照，这为近期活跃 的稳定币主题在证券板块实现了联动，受此影响国泰君安国际港股收涨近 200%，同时也催化 A 股证券板块。 此外，国防军工大涨也提供一定贡献，原因在于近日存在较多催化剂：一 是 6 月 24 日官宣将于 9 月 3 日举行阅兵活动，即中国人民抗日战争暨世界 反法西斯战争胜利 80 周年纪念活动。二是上海合作组织成员国国防部长会 议参会国国防部长在青岛会见，其中包括伊朗、巴基斯坦、俄罗斯等今年 来地缘政治冲突热点地区的直接参与方，军工出口预期再起。 ⚫ 站上新中枢，积聚新力量，再做新突破 潜在流动性足、 ...

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 一致预期下 7 成固收卖方看多债市 ——债市情绪面周报（6 月第 4 周） 执业证书号：S0010525060002 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 华安观点：一致预期下挖掘曲线凸点，把握右侧止盈窗口 当前投资者对于债市一致预期较强，地缘政治、内外宏观环境利好债市， 货币政策处于宽松趋势，供给逻辑的冲击也有望在三季度放缓，债券市场的 一致预期似乎短期很难发生反转，此时可以继续挖掘曲线上的凸点以及仍有 利差的部分券种（20Y 国债、9Y 政金债等），半年末时点债市波动或放大， 在维持久期的同时应做好右侧应对及时止盈。 ⚫ 卖方观点：情绪指数逼近年内新高，超 7 成固收卖方看多债市 从市场情绪的角度出发，本周超 7 成固收卖方看多债市，情绪明显升温， 21 家偏多、6 家中性、2 家偏空，其中： 固收买方观点整体偏多为主。从当前市场买方观点来看，14 家偏多，13 家中性，其中： 报告日期： 2025-06-23 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子 ...

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 债券专题报告 萨姆信号下的美联储降息规律 海外宏观研究笔记（一） 报告日期： 2025-06-23 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010525060002 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 什么是萨姆规则？ 2019 年，美联储前经济学家克劳迪娅·萨姆在美联储工作论文上提出了一种 仅基于一种数据来诊断美国经济是否衰退的指标，即萨姆规则（Sahm Rule）。 规则核心为：当美国失业率的三个月移动平均值相对于前 12 个月的最低点上 升 0.5 个百分点或更多时，经济很可能已经进入衰退。 萨姆规则较其它经济衰退衡量方法更有及时性，因此具备价值。萨姆规则是 一个衰退指标，而非预测工具，反映的是经济当下正处于的状态。从 1953 年 至今，萨姆规则的触发时点较 NBER 宣告的衰退开始 ...