Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the pig farming sector, recommending continued investment in this area due to low historical valuations and potential recovery in prices [4][9]. Core Insights - The price of live pigs has dropped to 11.87 yuan per kilogram, indicating a potential restart of destocking in the pig farming industry [3][4]. - The report highlights that the average weight of pigs at slaughter is 127.4 kg, which is significantly higher than the same period in 2024 and 2025, suggesting an oversupply situation [4]. - The report anticipates a new wave of price declines for pigs after the Spring Festival, with the industry likely to face increased losses and further capacity reduction [4]. - The report notes that the average utilization rate of breeding facilities is currently high, which may contribute to the ongoing challenges in the industry [4]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is reported at 11.87 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 2.8% [4]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 127.4 kg, which is 4 kg heavier than the same period in previous years [4]. - The report indicates that the breeding sector has experienced three weeks of profitability but has recently returned to losses, with an average loss of 38 yuan per head [4]. - The report lists the monthly slaughter volumes of major listed pig companies, with a total of 13.08 million pigs slaughtered in January 2026, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year increase [4]. Poultry Farming - The report states that the inventory of white feather broiler chickens remains high, while yellow feather chicken farming has been profitable for over five months [5][7]. - The average price of yellow feather broilers is reported at 14.95 yuan/kg, with a slight week-on-week decrease [7]. Cattle Industry - The report notes that the total cattle inventory in China has decreased by 8.6% as of the end of 2025, with expectations for continued declines in 2026 [9]. - The report suggests that declining cattle inventory is a precursor to rising beef prices, with predictions for accelerated price increases in the first half of 2026 [9]. Pet Food Market - The pet market in China is projected to grow by 4.1% in 2025, reaching a total market size of 312.6 billion yuan [8]. - The report highlights that the pet food market share has increased to 53.7%, with significant growth in core brands [8].

Group 1 - The report highlights that most provinces in China have either maintained or lowered their economic growth targets for 2026, indicating a stable policy stance compared to 2025, with a focus on structural policies in sectors like artificial intelligence, service consumption, commercial aerospace, and robotics [3][12][13] - The current period is identified as the optimal entry point for the strongest seasonal construction market, with a significant probability of entering the first benign adjustment phase in the growth industry cycle [4][14] - The report suggests that representative stocks typically experience a maximum adjustment range of 15-30% during the first benign adjustment phase, with a pattern of "decline → rebound → decline" observed historically [15][17] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on stable and certain investment opportunities, particularly in sectors with regular construction opportunities, highlighting ten key sub-sectors and a portfolio of 18 advantageous stocks [29][30] - It notes that the AI industry chain remains a core focus for 2026, although it is currently entering the first benign adjustment phase, with expectations of a 15-20% adjustment in growth style [30][31] - The report indicates that traditional consumer goods and defensive dividend stocks are experiencing a short-term rotation, which aligns with historical patterns observed during the initial phase of benign adjustments [29][30]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - Alibaba's Qwen3-Max-Thinking model has achieved significant improvements in various key dimensions, including factual knowledge, complex reasoning, instruction adherence, human preference alignment, and agent capabilities, performing comparably to top models like GPT-5.2-Thinking and Claude-Opus-4.5 in 19 authoritative benchmark tests [3][12] - The model features over one trillion parameters and enhances the native agent capabilities for autonomous tool invocation, significantly reducing hallucinations and laying the groundwork for solving real complex tasks [5][12] - The release of Clawdbot marks a new phase in the development of intelligent agents, allowing users to interact through messaging apps and execute commands via local scripts, thus transitioning from "AI providing suggestions" to "AI taking direct actions" [4][13] Summary by Sections 1. Computer Industry Insights - On January 26, Alibaba released the flagship reasoning model Qwen3-Max-Thinking, which has shown significant enhancements across multiple key performance metrics [12] - The model's core innovations include adaptive tool invocation capabilities and test-time scaling technology, which significantly boosts reasoning performance [12][14] 2. Market Performance Review - The computer industry index fell by 4.77%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.33 percentage points, while the year-to-date performance shows a 6.94% increase [16][17] - The computer sector ranked 28th among 31 industry indices this week, indicating a challenging market environment [16] 3. Technology Software Industry News - The "Smart Computing" initiative in Shanghai aims to enhance the AI infrastructure, with a focus on building a complete industrial chain covering chips, optical communication, and servers [23] - The launch of the "Star Computing" plan by a commercial aerospace company aims to create a space-based computing network to support AI agents with low-latency and high-reliability services [24] 4. Company Dynamics - Companies like Cambricon, Inspur, and Alibaba are highlighted as key players in the AI industry chain, suggesting investment opportunities in these firms [5][14] - Recent stock option and incentive plans from various companies indicate a focus on retaining talent and driving growth in the tech sector [35][36]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the addition of 105 new quantitative finance-related research papers, with a distribution across various research fields including equity research, fund studies, asset allocation, and machine learning applications in finance [2] - The report systematically reviews over 40 financial journals and AI conference papers, focusing on literature in quantitative finance, covering equity (non-ESG), fixed income, fund research, asset allocation, machine learning, and equity-ESG categories [3] - Key findings include the impact of passive investment on asset prices, the role of investor sentiment in factor pricing, and the innovative applications of machine learning in portfolio management and stock selection [4][5] Summary by Sections Equity Research Literature Review (Non-ESG) - **Fundamental Research**: Focuses on informed trading characteristics and corporate investment efficiency, revealing that 20% of high-investment firms with low marginal productivity of capital are young companies with high growth potential [12][14] - **Price-Volume Research**: Discusses innovations in asset pricing measurement methods and behavioral finance explanations for market anomalies [12][13] - **Liquidity Research**: Examines the impact of passive investment on asset prices and the anticipatory trading behavior of distressed hedge funds [16][17] - **Alternative Research**: Investigates the heterogeneous impact of investor sentiment on pricing mechanisms and the influence of social media on asset pricing [18][19] - **Active Quantitative Research**: Analyzes the heterogeneous value of corporate governance mechanisms and the role of motivated institutional investors in reshaping corporate debt structures [20][22] Fixed Income Research Literature Review - The report includes 7 fixed income studies focusing on the convenience yield of major assets and green premiums, risk pricing mechanisms in interest and credit markets, and innovations in fixed income research methodologies [27][28] Fund Research Literature Review - The report summarizes 8 studies on institutional investment and fund behavior, highlighting the differences in commitment levels among ESG funds and the optimization of fund investment decision-making mechanisms [29][31] Asset Allocation (Traditional Methods) Literature Review - The report covers 3 studies on asset allocation and long-term investment, emphasizing the historical performance of defensive strategies and the constraints faced by investors in stock allocation [32][33] Machine Learning Literature Review - The report details 3 studies on machine learning applications in portfolio management, focusing on high-frequency models and the integration of deep reinforcement learning in stock selection and dynamic portfolio adjustment [38][39]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company has established a unique business model that transitions from traditional self-research to a sustainable business development (BD) model, significantly increasing cash flow and revenue [5][7] - The company possesses a globally rare, clinically validated fully human antibody transgenic mouse platform, Harbour Mice®, which breaks traditional antibody development bottlenecks [4][6] - The company has successfully attracted collaborations with top multinational pharmaceutical companies, marking its evolution from a traditional biotech to a globally influential biotechnology innovator [4][5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Harbour BioMed (2142.HK), was founded in 2016 and has a dual-engine strategy of "technology platform + innovative products" [15] - It has a strong R&D advantage and global business capabilities, with a focus on developing innovative drugs for oncology and immune diseases [18] Business Model and Financial Performance - The company has transformed its business model to a continuous BD authorization model, achieving a revenue increase of 327% year-on-year to $101 million in the first half of 2025 [5][31] - The net profit for the same period reached $71.72 million, with a net profit margin of 72% [5][31] - The company holds $320 million in cash as of mid-2025, providing a strong safety margin for long-term R&D and business expansion [35] Pipeline and Innovation - The company focuses on differentiated clinical value with a pipeline that includes First-in-Class (FIC) and Best-in-Class (BIC) assets, such as HBM4003, a fully human heavy-chain CTLA-4 inhibitor [6][19] - The Nona Biosciences subsidiary has developed the Hu-mAtrIx™ AI platform, leveraging extensive experimental data to enhance drug development efficiency [58] Investment Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are $178 million, $293 million, and $210 million, respectively, with corresponding net profits of $91 million, $174 million, and $134 million [10][7] - The company is expected to maintain a high gross margin of around 95% due to the low marginal cost of its technology licensing revenue [10][35]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [2]. Core Insights - The report focuses on the challenges faced by traditional portfolio optimization methods due to unknown asset return distributions and proposes a Bayesian Predictive Synthesis (BPS) framework to address market uncertainties. This framework integrates multiple expert predictions using a Dynamic Linear Model (DLM) to create a posterior predictive distribution of asset returns, offering a new approach for robust asset allocation in uncertain environments [2][3]. Summary by Sections Introduction - Portfolio optimization is a key challenge in investment, aiming to appropriately allocate various financial assets to achieve ideal asset management. Traditional methods like mean-variance optimization require knowledge of asset return distributions, which are often unknown and can significantly impact portfolio performance [14][15]. BPS Framework - BPS is a Bayesian framework that integrates multiple expert predictions into a unified posterior predictive distribution. The use of a Dynamic Linear Model allows for capturing non-stationarity and time-varying characteristics in financial time series data, providing robust inputs for subsequent portfolio optimization [3][21]. Portfolio Construction Methods - The report discusses how to utilize the posterior predictive distribution generated by BPS to drive three mainstream portfolio construction strategies: - Mean-Variance Portfolio: Explores constrained optimization forms based on posterior mean and variance [32]. - Quantile-Based Portfolio: Introduces Bayesian versions of VaR/CVaR and VoR/CVoR as optimization objectives or constraints [34]. - Risk Parity Portfolio: Defines marginal risk contributions and seeks weights to equalize contributions from each asset [37]. Empirical Analysis - Empirical tests in the US and Japanese markets demonstrate that the BPS-based portfolio optimization method (BPPS) performs well without significant performance degradation, showing robustness against poorly performing predictive models [5][38][50]. Conclusion - The study introduces a method for optimizing portfolios based on posterior predictive distributions obtained through BPS, effectively addressing uncertainties in asset return distributions. The integration of expert predictions through a Dynamic Linear Model captures the uncertainties in time series data, confirming the effectiveness of the proposed methods through empirical testing [51][52].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The nomination of hawkish Fed Chair Walsh is expected to restore the Fed's independence and support the dollar, leading to a rise in interest rates and a potential tightening of monetary policy[10] - The market anticipates a new round of tightening due to the Fed Chair nomination, with economic fundamentals showing signs of slowing down[2] - The 1Y Treasury yield decreased from 1.337% to 1.3%, while the 10Y Treasury yield fell from 1.847% to 1.811%[2] Group 2: Market Performance and Asset Allocation - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.76% from 3968.84 to 4117.95, while the ChiNext Index increased by 4.47% from 3203.17 to 3346.36[2] - The NASDAQ index showed a slight increase of 0.95%, moving from 23241.99 to 23461.82, but is expected to face valuation pressure in the short term[2] - The recommendation is to overweight financial stocks while underweighting consumer stocks and U.S. equities due to tightening expectations[3] Group 3: Commodity and Currency Trends - Brent crude oil prices surged by 13.57%, from $57.42 to $65.21 per barrel, driven by geopolitical factors and Fed expectations[2] - The U.S. dollar index is on an upward trend, moving from 98.27 to 97.12, indicating a recovery in dollar strength[2] - The USD/CNY exchange rate slightly decreased from 6.99 to 6.95, reflecting a slower appreciation of the yuan[2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has released its 2025 earnings forecast, indicating significant growth potential with a focus on store efficiency and expansion strategies [4][6] - The company's same-store sales have shown improvement, exceeding market expectations, with a notable recovery in profitability [5][7] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2025, the revenue is projected to be 14.84 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.6%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 460 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 119.6% [7] - The company anticipates a total revenue of 51.4 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 59.0%, with a net profit of 1.32 billion yuan, indicating a substantial year-on-year increase of 348.0% [7][8] - The company plans to add approximately 4,000 new stores by the end of 2025, achieving a total of 18,000 stores, which aligns with its initial targets [7] Profitability Insights - The company's gross profit margin is expected to improve, with the net profit margin for Q4 2025 projected between 2.8% and 3.4%, an increase of 1.0 to 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The net profit margin for the company's wholesale business is anticipated to be between 5.3% and 6.6% for Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 2.6 percentage points [7] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 51.55 billion yuan, 65.31 billion yuan, and 77.36 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 59.5%, 26.7%, and 18.5% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.33 billion yuan, 2.12 billion yuan, and 2.91 billion yuan for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 351.3%, 60.1%, and 37.0% [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The chemical sector is experiencing a dual drive of cyclical recovery and growth, with a focus on organic silicon, PTA, polyester filament, caprolactam, spandex, vitamins, sweeteners, refrigerants, and phosphorus chemicals [5][6] - The organic silicon industry is entering a recovery phase, with new applications becoming the core growth engine. From 2019 to 2024, domestic DMC capacity is rapidly expanding, leading to temporary oversupply and continuous price declines. However, by 2025, no new capacity is expected, and demand from emerging sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics is maintaining high growth [5][6] - The PTA and polyester filament industry is moving towards a new prosperity cycle as the capacity expansion phase is nearing its end, with new capacity mainly concentrated in leading enterprises [6] - The refrigerant market is entering a high prosperity cycle due to quota policies and stable demand growth from the heat pump and cold chain markets [7] - The synthetic biology sector is expected to see explosive demand growth as fossil-based materials face disruptive challenges, with a focus on energy-efficient products [8] - OLED technology is accelerating its penetration into larger displays, supported by government policies promoting the new display industry [9] - The demand for electronic chemicals is increasing due to the rapid development of the semiconductor industry, particularly in China, where the market is heavily reliant on imports [11] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 12th with a decline of 0.86% during the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026 [20] - The top three performing sectors were oil and petrochemicals (7.95%), communications (5.83%), and coal (3.68%) [20] Key Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is promoting the mercury-free transformation of the PVC industry, focusing on the development of mercury-free catalysts [36] - Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to increased oil prices, with WTI crude averaging $61.33 per barrel, up 2.39% from the previous week [36]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has released its 2025 earnings forecast, indicating significant improvements in same-store sales that exceed market expectations [4][5] - The company is expected to benefit from a model iteration of discount supermarkets, which will enhance store efficiency and support future growth through store openings and potential H-share listings [6] - The company’s profitability is driven by three main factors: short-term fee optimization, medium-term management integration, and long-term development of proprietary brands [6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2025, the company anticipates a revenue midpoint of 14.84 billion yuan (26.6% year-on-year growth) and a net profit midpoint of 460 million yuan (119.6% year-on-year growth) [7] - The company expects to achieve a revenue midpoint of 51.4 billion yuan for the year 2025 (59.0% year-on-year growth) and a net profit midpoint of 1.32 billion yuan (348.0% year-on-year growth) [7] - The company’s revenue from its wholesale business is projected to grow by 28.4% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with a significant acceleration in store openings [7] - The company plans to add approximately 1,600 new stores in Q4 2025, with a total of 4,000 new stores expected by the end of 2025, reaching a total of 18,000 stores [7] Profitability Forecast - The company’s net profit margin for Q4 2025 is expected to be between 2.8% and 3.4%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.0 to 1.6 percentage points [7] - The projected net profit margin for the wholesale business in Q4 2025 is expected to be between 5.3% and 6.6%, which is an increase of over 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company’s overall net profit margin is expected to continue its upward trend, with a forecasted increase in the proportion of net profit attributable to the parent company to approximately 55-60% in Q4 2025 [7] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 51.55 billion yuan, 65.31 billion yuan, and 77.36 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 59.5%, 26.7%, and 18.5% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.33 billion yuan, 2.12 billion yuan, and 2.91 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 351.3%, 60.1%, and 37.0% [8] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 29, 18, and 13 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8]