Market Insights - The report indicates that the increase in financing margin ratios is gradually being digested by the market, with the impact nearing its end. The central bank's structural interest rate cuts are expected to boost policy expectations, and additional policies may be introduced following the release of macroeconomic data for 2025, which could enhance market risk appetite [3][4] - The upcoming release of 2025 macroeconomic data on January 19 is anticipated to show a significant decline in GDP growth for Q4 compared to Q3. This, combined with various policy measures, suggests an increased probability of a "good start" for Q1, which is likely to uplift market risk appetite [4][11] Industry Allocation - The report asserts that the acceleration in market trends has not ended, but the structure of the upward trend is shifting towards computing power. The previous leading sectors, such as military and AI applications, have seen declines, raising investor concerns about the end of the current market phase. However, the report suggests that the current market phase may still extend with potential acceleration in sectors related to computing power [5][20] - As of January 12, 2026, the electric equipment sector has not yet reached new highs, indicating that the growth style and six major growth industries have not simultaneously achieved new highs. The report highlights that the electric equipment index has room for approximately 3% growth to meet this condition [20][23] - The report identifies that the communication and electronic sectors, which were previously strong, may experience a rapid rebound, with potential upward space of no less than 10%. The report emphasizes that the current market conditions do not satisfy the "stronger gets stronger" characteristic, as the leading sectors have not maintained their strength [20][24] - The report also notes that the turnover rates for the growth style and the communication sector are approaching their respective highs, but the communication sector still has a significant gap to close. This suggests that the current market phase has not yet concluded, and a rapid increase in turnover rates may accompany a rebound in the communication sector [27][31] Key Investment Themes - The report suggests two main investment themes: 1. The AI industry chain, particularly in computing power (CPO/PCB), supporting components (fiber optics/liquid cooling/power equipment), and applications (robots/games/software), is expected to continue its upward trend. The report anticipates that applications may experience high volatility, while computing power is likely to see accelerated growth [32][33] 2. Areas supported by favorable market conditions or significant events, such as storage and energy storage chains, military industry, and machinery, are also highlighted. The storage sector is expected to benefit from supply disruptions and increased AI demand, while the military sector may gain from commercial aerospace and geopolitical events [33]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the domestic commercialization cooperation for RAY1225 has been established, marking a significant phase in the company's innovative transformation [3][4] - The company has signed a licensing agreement with Qilu Pharmaceutical for the production and commercialization of RAY1225 in China, retaining all intellectual property rights [4][5] - RAY1225 is a long-acting GLP-1 drug with promising results in clinical trials for weight loss and blood sugar reduction, showing better efficacy and safety compared to similar products [5][8] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 28.08 billion, 31.23 billion, and 35.01 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.8%, 11.2%, and 12.1% [8][10] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 3.05 billion, 3.43 billion, and 3.91 billion yuan for the same years, reflecting significant growth of 201.9%, 12.5%, and 14.0% [8][10] - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, with a corresponding valuation of 62X, 55X, and 48X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [8] Product Development - The innovative drug for influenza, Anladiwei tablets, has been approved for market release, expected to gradually increase in volume [7][8] - The ongoing clinical trials for RAY1225 and the anticipated overseas rights authorization are areas of continued focus for the company [5][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the chemical industry, specifically recommending leading companies in the light hydrocarbon sector, such as Satellite Chemical [4]. Core Insights - Ethane prices have continued to decline, reaching 1277 RMB/ton as of January 9, with a week-on-week decrease of 3.10% [4]. - Natural gas prices have significantly dropped by 29.02% week-on-week, while ethylene and liquid chlorine prices remained stable [4]. - The report anticipates that despite fluctuations, ethane prices will continue to decline due to a loose supply-demand balance, with expectations for recovery in downstream demand this year [4]. - The report highlights the historical price percentiles for key downstream products, indicating they are currently in a mid-low percentile range [4]. Price Trends of Major Products and Raw Materials - As of January 9, the latest prices for polyethylene, epoxy ethane, polyester monomer, ethylene glycol, and styrene are 6534, 5750, 8200, 3829, and 6796 RMB/ton respectively, with varying week-on-week changes [16][18]. - The report notes that the price of polypropylene has slightly increased by 1.79% week-on-week, while acrylic acid prices remained stable [33][36]. - Brent crude oil prices were recorded at 61.08 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.34%, and natural gas prices at 3.02 USD/MMBtu, down 29.02% [41][44]. Price Differentials - As of January 9, the price differentials for ethylene-ethane, ethylene glycol-ethylene, and other product pairs have shown various changes, with some differentials widening [62][65]. - The ethylene-ethane differential increased by 1.30%, while the ethylene glycol-ethylene differential decreased by 8.40% [70][74]. Competitive Landscape and Downstream Demand - The report indicates that the ethylene-naphtha differential is -1301 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.04% [87]. - The cost advantages of ethane cracking over other routes have been emphasized, particularly with the recent decline in ethane prices [90].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [3] Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2026, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [6][7] - The arrival of a pivotal moment in synthetic biology is anticipated, driven by the adjustment of energy structures, which may disrupt fossil-based materials and favor low-energy products [7] - The implementation of quota policies for third-generation refrigerants is expected to lead to a high prosperity cycle, with demand remaining stable due to market expansion in Southeast Asia [8] - The electronic specialty gases market is characterized by high technical barriers and value, presenting significant opportunities for domestic substitution [10] - The trend of light hydrocarbon chemicals is becoming global, with a shift towards lighter raw materials in the olefin industry, which is expected to lead to a revaluation of leading companies in this sector [10] - The industrialization process of COC polymers is accelerating, with domestic companies likely to break through supply bottlenecks and expand market space [11] - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as the industry enters a destocking cycle, with supply pressures easing due to production cuts by major companies [12] - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure expected to develop as demand gradually recovers [13] Industry Performance - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 12th with a weekly change of 5.03%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.21 percentage points [5][22] - The top three performing sub-sectors were inorganic salts (10.92%), modified plastics (9.94%), and oil and gas refining engineering (8.67%) [25] Company Performance - The top three performing companies in the chemical sector for the week were Pulit (42.59%), Dawi Technology (35.34%), and Sanfu Co., Ltd. (32.29%) [29][30] - The companies with the largest declines included Hangzhou High-tech (-11.24%), Yahua Group (-6.59%), and Wind God Co., Ltd. (-5.48%) [31][32] Industry Dynamics - A recent anti-dumping investigation has been initiated against imports of dichlorodihydrosilane from Japan, which is expected to impact the domestic industry [38] - The restructuring of Sinopec and China Aviation Oil is a significant event in the state-owned enterprise reform landscape, aiming to enhance competitiveness in a complex international environment [38]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Rongchang Biologics (688331) is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - On January 12, 2026, Rongchang Biologics announced an exclusive licensing agreement with AbbVie for its self-developed PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody drug RC148. AbbVie will receive exclusive rights for development, production, and commercialization outside Greater China, with an upfront payment of $650 million and potential milestone payments up to $4.95 billion, along with double-digit royalties on net sales outside Greater China [5][11] - The deal is seen as a significant entry into the business development (BD) market for 2026, highlighting the growing trend of large licensing transactions in the PD-1/VEGF space, which is crucial for next-generation cancer immunotherapy [6] - AbbVie, a well-established player in oncology, aims to enhance treatment standards for patients with difficult-to-treat cancers, and the acquisition of RC148 will further strengthen its pipeline in immuno-oncology [7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Rongchang Biologics are adjusted to 2.25 billion, 7.42 billion, and 3.98 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 31.1%, 229.6%, and -46.3% [11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -763 million, 3.19 billion, and 220 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 48.0%, 517.8%, and -93.1% [11] - The gross margin is projected to remain stable, increasing from 80.4% in 2024 to 82.2% in 2027 [13]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the tin industry, driven by strong demand and limited supply, suggesting a favorable investment environment [2][3]. Core Insights - The global tin market is experiencing structural tightness, with supply heavily reliant on a few resource-rich countries. In 2024, global tin production is projected to be 300,000 tons, a decrease of 1.63% year-on-year, while demand is expected to reach 385,200 tons, an increase of 3.33% year-on-year [5][15]. - Tin prices are expected to rise due to weak supply and strong demand. The prolonged suspension of mining operations in Myanmar and conflicts affecting supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo have exacerbated material shortages, driving prices upward [5][22]. - Key companies in the tin sector include: - **Yunnan Tin Company**: Leading in tin production and sales globally, with a comprehensive integrated supply chain [33]. - **Xingye Silver Tin**: Notable for its silver and tin production, with ongoing acquisitions of overseas tin resources [36]. - **Hua Tin Nonferrous Metals**: A state-owned platform benefiting from regional resource consolidation and industrial clustering [39]. Summary by Sections 1. Tin Industry Overview - Tin is a crucial metal in electronic soldering, characterized by its stability and resistance to oxidation, making it suitable for various applications [8]. - The global tin supply is concentrated, with the top four countries (Indonesia, China, Myanmar, and Australia) accounting for over 60% of reserves [14]. 2. Tin Price Trends - Tin prices are influenced by supply constraints and high demand, particularly from the electronics and renewable energy sectors. The report anticipates that if new production capacity remains limited, tin prices will likely stay elevated [22][24]. 3. Related Companies - **Yunnan Tin Company**: Achieved a market share of 25.03% globally in 2024, focusing on high-value products and sustainable practices [33]. - **Xingye Silver Tin**: Reported significant revenue growth, with a strong focus on resource acquisition and production expansion [36]. - **Hua Tin Nonferrous Metals**: Leveraging its integrated operations to enhance resource recovery and sustainability [39].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Overweight [1] Core Insights - On January 6, 2026, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang officially launched the latest NVIDIA Rubin platform at CES 2026, stating that it has entered full-scale production. The Rubin platform consists of six new chips: Vera CPU, Rubin GPU, NVLink 6 switch, ConnectX-9 SuperNIC, BlueField-4 DPU, and Spectrum-6 Ethernet switch, designed to form an AI supercomputer that significantly reduces AI training time and lowers inference token generation costs. The training performance of the Rubin platform is 3.5 times that of the previous Blackwell generation, with software performance improved by 5 times, and the cost per token for inference reduced by 10 times compared to the Blackwell platform. Additionally, the number of GPUs required for training MoE models is reduced to one-fourth of the previous requirement [3][13][15]. - The Rubin platform integrates five key technologies to achieve breakthroughs in performance enhancement and cost reduction: 1) New NVLink interconnect technology ensures low latency and high bandwidth during multi-chip collaboration; 2) The third-generation Transformer engine optimizes for AI tasks, greatly improving model training and inference efficiency; 3) Confidential computing technology provides end-to-end security for sensitive AI data, meeting compliance needs in finance and healthcare; 4) RAS engine ensures stable performance under 24/7 high-load operation; 5) Vera CPU is specifically designed for agent inference [4][13]. - Major cloud providers, including Amazon AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, and Oracle Cloud, have confirmed plans to deploy instances based on Vera Rubin in 2026, allowing global users to access top-tier AI computing power through cloud services. This will enable AI startups and SMEs, previously limited by high computing costs, to easily utilize the Rubin platform's powerful capabilities without significant hardware investment. Efficient computing power will accelerate breakthroughs in basic scientific research and technology, promoting deep applications of AI in healthcare, education, and environmental protection [5][14]. - The Rubin platform's dual breakthroughs in performance and cost reduction will significantly lower hardware procurement and operational costs for AI companies, facilitating the widespread adoption of AI applications such as intelligent customer service, autonomous driving, drug development, industrial quality inspection, and scientific research. It is recommended to pay attention to domestic and international AI computing infrastructure and related companies, including Cambrian, Zhongke Shuguang, Yonyou Network, Dingjie Zhizhi, Kingsoft Office, Tonghuashun, Jiao Dian Technology, Saiyi Information, and Fubo Group [6][15]. Market Overview - As of the week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82%, the ChiNext Index increased by 3.89%, and the CSI 300 Index went up by 2.79%. The computer industry index surged by 8.49%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.67 percentage points, the ChiNext Index by 4.60 percentage points, and the CSI 300 Index by 5.70 percentage points. Year-to-date, the computer industry index has also increased by 8.49% [17][20]. - The computer industry index ranked 5th among 31 industry indices this week and 2nd among the four major TMT industries (electronics, communications, computers, media) [17]. Company Dynamics - The report highlights significant movements in the software and information technology sectors, with companies like Huijin Technology, Ersan Siwu, and Zhuoyi Information showing notable performance. Future investment opportunities are suggested in the financial IT, industrial software, and trusted innovation sectors, which are expected to see upward trends [22].

Market Insights - The market is experiencing a strong upward trend driven by positive factors such as stable prices and improved investment expectations, with overall liquidity remaining ample and trading activity active [3][4] - The CPI for December showed a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, better than the previous value of 0.7%, while the PPI decreased by 1.9%, a smaller decline compared to the previous 2.2% [15][19] - The recovery in PPI indicates price stabilization, which is expected to positively impact corporate profitability and enhance market risk appetite [4][15] Industry Configuration - The military industry sector has reached a historical high in trading congestion, with the defense military trading congestion at 9.4%, the highest since 2000, and the aerospace equipment sector also hitting a record high of 2.3% [21][22] - The growth phase of the market is not yet at its end, as key indicators such as the simultaneous new highs of major growth sectors have not been met, particularly in the electric equipment, computer, and communication sectors [25][26] - The current growth style is showing signs of acceleration, but it does not fully meet the characteristics of a strong market, indicating that the growth phase may still be in its early stages [29][31] Investment Opportunities - The AI industry chain is identified as the strongest mainline investment opportunity, with a focus on computing power, supporting components, and applications [34][35] - Other sectors to watch include storage and energy chains, military industry, and machinery equipment, which are expected to benefit from rising prices and demand driven by AI and geopolitical events [35][36]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Predatory Trading Game with Disinformation - **Model Construction Idea**: This model incorporates disinformation into a predatory trading game framework, where participants act based on distorted information, leading to deviations in equilibrium and market volatility[3][16][23] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model builds on the microstructure frameworks of Carlin et al. (2007) and Carmona & Yang (2011), introducing a victim (forced to adjust risky asset positions) and predators (seeking profit from the victim's constraints)[23] 2. The trading rate of participant \( n \) is defined as: $$ X^{n}(t) = X^{n}(0) + \int_{0}^{t}\alpha^{n}(s)\mathrm{d}s \tag{1} $$ where \( \alpha^{n} \) represents the trading rate, constrained by: $$ \alpha_{t}^{n} \in \mathbb{A}^{n} = \left\{\alpha_{t}^{n} \mid \mathcal{H}_{[0,T]}^{2}, X_{T}^{n} = 0 \right\} $$ 3. Temporary price impact is modeled as: $$ P_{t} - X_{t}^{0} = \lambda \sum_{i=1}^{N}\alpha_{t}^{i} \tag{4} $$ where \( \lambda \) is the elasticity factor[24] 4. Permanent price impact is expressed as: $$ \mathrm{d}X_{t}^{0} = \gamma \sum_{i=1}^{N}a_{t}^{i}\mathrm{d}t + \sigma\mathrm{d}W_{t} \tag{5} $$ where \( \gamma \) represents market plasticity, and \( \sigma \) is the volatility parameter[24] 5. Participants aim to maximize profits: $$ J^{n}(\mathbf{\alpha}) = \mathbb{E}\left(\int_{0}^{T}\alpha^{n}\left(X_{t}^{0} + \lambda\sum_{i=1}^{N}\alpha_{t}^{i}\right)\mathrm{d}t\right) \tag{8} $$ 6. Disinformation is introduced as a random distortion \( \tilde{x}_{0,1} = x_{0,1} + \epsilon \), where \( \epsilon \) represents the distortion[27] 7. The price process under disinformation is given by: $$ X_{t}^{0} = X^{0}(0) - \frac{1-e^{-\frac{N-1}{N+1}\frac{T_{T}}{\lambda}}}{1-e^{-\frac{N-1}{N+1}\frac{T_{T}}{\lambda}}}\gamma\left(\sum_{i=1}^{N}x_{0}^{i}+\bar{\nu}\right) + \frac{e^{\frac{T t}{\lambda}}-1}{e^{\frac{T t}{\lambda}}-1}\gamma\bar{\nu} + \sigma\left(W_{t}-W_{0}\right) $$ where \( \bar{\nu} \) is the error factor[30][31] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the impact of disinformation on market dynamics, highlighting its role in amplifying volatility and disrupting equilibrium[16][30] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Predatory Trading Game with Disinformation - **Maximum Price Fluctuation (MPF)**: $$ MPF_{\nu}(t_{*},t^{*}) := \operatorname*{max}_{t_{1},t_{2}\in[t_{*},t^{*}]}\left|\mathbb{E}\left(X_{t_{1}}^{0}-X_{t_{2}}^{0}\right)\right| $$ The model demonstrates that disinformation increases MPF, with a lower bound determined by: $$ MPF_{\tilde{\nu}^{*}}(0,T) \geq \operatorname*{min}_{\tilde{\nu}\in\mathbb{R}} MPF_{\tilde{\nu}}(0,T) = \gamma\sum_{i=1}^{N}x_{0}^{i} $$[34][37] - **Error Factor Impact**: The error factor \( \nu \) significantly influences price trajectories, with higher \( \nu \) leading to greater volatility[30][33] - **Tolerance Thresholds**: The system tolerates disinformation within specific boundaries \( b_{1} \) and \( b_{2} \), beyond which volatility escalates[38][40] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Error Factor (\( \nu \)) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The error factor quantifies the degree and spread of disinformation in the market, serving as a key determinant of price volatility[30][33] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Defined as: $$ \tilde{\nu} := \frac{N_{w}}{N}\left(\tilde{x}_{0}^{1} - x_{0}^{1}\right) $$ where \( N_{w} \) is the number of misinformed participants, and \( \tilde{x}_{0}^{1} - x_{0}^{1} \) represents the distortion magnitude[30] 2. Generalized for multiple distortions: $$ \nu := \frac{1}{N}\,\sum_{l=1}^{\kappa}N_{w_{l}}\left(\bar{x}_{0,w_{l}}^{1} - x_{0}^{1}\right) $$ where \( \kappa \) is the number of distinct distortions[56] - **Factor Evaluation**: The error factor effectively captures the interplay between disinformation magnitude and its spread, providing insights into its impact on market dynamics[30][56] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Error Factor (\( \nu \)) - **Maximum Price Fluctuation (MPF)**: Higher \( \nu \) values correspond to increased MPF, with a minimum threshold determined by: $$ MPF_{\nu}(0,T) \geq \gamma\sum_{i=1}^{N}x_{0}^{i} $$[34][37] - **Tolerance Thresholds**: The system tolerates \( \nu \) within boundaries \( b_{1} \) and \( b_{2} \), with specific dependencies on market parameters and game duration[38][40] - **Dynamic Evolution**: The tolerance for \( \nu \) increases over time, reducing the potential for disinformation to amplify volatility in the long term[90][91] --- Additional Insights - **Information Updates**: New information can mitigate the impact of disinformation by adjusting the error factor \( \nu \), with the timing of updates being critical to minimizing volatility[84][92][95] - **Randomness and Misjudgment**: Random price movements can lead even informed participants to misjudge their information, complicating the detection and correction of disinformation[100][101][103] - **Profit Implications**: Disinformation affects profit expectations, with informed participants benefiting under certain conditions, while widespread disinformation can erode these advantages[49][51][56]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - The next Federal Reserve chair is expected to lower interest rate cut expectations, impacting market sentiment positively[2] - The market anticipates a pause in rate cuts during the January FOMC meeting, with a focus on maintaining the current target rate[11] - The 1-year Treasury yield decreased from 1.402% to 1.337%, a drop of 6 basis points, indicating a shift in short-term interest rate expectations[2] Group 2: Domestic Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 3888.6 to 3968.84, a 2.06% increase, driven by improved macro policies and a significant rise in the construction PMI[2] - The growth style index increased from 8331.69 to 8741.04, reflecting a 4.91% rise, supported by favorable liquidity conditions[2] - The construction PMI improved significantly, indicating a potential stabilization in investment and economic recovery[17] Group 3: Commodity and Currency Insights - Brent crude oil prices fell from $58.55 to $57.42 per barrel, a decrease of 1.93%, suggesting a bearish outlook on oil due to supply dynamics[2] - The US dollar index decreased from 99.44 to 98.27, a drop of 1.18%, reflecting a slight weakening of the dollar amid lower rate cut expectations[2] - The COMEX copper price increased from $5.19 to $5.649 per pound, an 8.84% rise, indicating strong demand amid supply constraints[2]